Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[ElMariachi]

the real question is why should you care to writte in teh boxoffice thread?

or why do you care enough to quote me?

its BS and you know it.

because I was curious until I realized that it was nothing more then a d--k measuring contest. Now I just want to point out how ridiculous and fanboyish this all is.

For goodness sake, just look at all this Inception talk and all the people feeling a need to defend it as if they personally know Christopher Nolan. And this is only because of Batman. I have no doubt that if Nolan was to direct the last Twlight movie, these people would swarm anybody who badmouthed it and would rush IMDB voting. I finally realized how bats--t (pun intended) these people are when they were telling us to see Inception (as if we weren't going to already) a year ago. Badmouthing any criticism and trashing any perceived "rivals" as if WB payed each and every one of them. It's sort of sad because I love Nolan, Inception, and the Batman movies--but now I have to listen to all these piggybacking fanboys.

 

[ElMariachi]

Yup, it's hilarious how the jealousy is clear over here when it comes to Nolan......here's another great article from Box Office Mojo:

....

What a laughable comment. People here are jealous of Nolan? Going to see BB/TDK/Inception multiple times in the theater and advertising his films on the internet didn't put any more money in your bank account then it did mine.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I really don't see any real reasons why people on here should be concerned about how much more Marvel could have made. It's simply a ridiculous notion that people online are concerning themselves about how much extra money a major corporation can line it's pockets with. Nobody does it for any other business, so why with movies?

Well, people who are interested in this stuff do discuss it for other businesses, just like we do for movies, I like to discuss the financial side of Football Clubs, particularly the one i support.

And again, this is a boxoffice thread, hence why we are discussing it.

As for the movie quality itself, I also don't see how this impacted box office. Of course, if it was in 3D it would have made alot more, but the quality of the movie was fine. For some odd reason, Iron Man 2 has attracted alot of haters on here, on IMDB, and within movie critic circles. The criticisms of this movie, from the very first reviews, have been rather petty arguments going out of their way to condemn the film. You don't give a movie that low of a score because it had a somewhat short final clash and there are a few slow scenes in the middle. The acting was so good in this movie (almost all critics agreed with that) that it should have warranted high scores on that alone. Movie quality really means nothing anyway because poor movies that make money (Transformers 2, the Twilight series, etc.).

I havent found them petty arguments at all, all the good acting in the world doesnt make for a coherent and emotionally powerful movie. Parts of this movie were a mess, and the movie itself was simply lifeless, there was no emotion or powerful moments in the movie. Despite me being dissapointed with the action we got (which is an important part of any ACTION movie and so it is a valid criticism that the action was poor for a $200 million dollar movie, I dont expect to be walking out of a $200 million summer action movie complaining about the action), its the powerful moments that always keep me coming back to such movies, and this movie barely had one emotionally powerful scene and for me, such moments make movies, this was my biggest criticism, there were some serious situations in this movie and all of them tended to get turned into a joke.

Now, its obvious that this movie has dissapointed many, and I personally believe this is why the legs for the movie werent that good against not very stern competition, which brings us back to discussing the box office.

And in regards to bias and fanboys--I am not claiming you are. But it's quite obvious it exists on here. Why would people apparently take such glee in a movies box office take being lower than expected? Anybody denying this is just lying to themselves. This whole "rivalry" thing is laughable because all the geeks on this website are going to see the latest superhero movie, regardless if it's Marvel or D.C, and probally enjoy it. It's when they get behind a keyboard that their bias and tribe mentality comes out of the box.

But some IM2 fans are just as bad, how anyone can claim Marvel wont be best please that this didnt make as much profit as the first movie, yet people on here keep claiming Marvel will be delighted, they will be happy, but they didnt pump an extra $50 million + into the movie for it to make less profit than the first movie did in its BO run, yet some people on here think Marvel are throwing party left, right and centre at the take and wont accept anything different.

I am no defender of the rabid Bat-fans, I dont find TDK as good as some make out (though its still the best CB movie for me and was much better than IM2, hence as a Marvel fan my dissapointment at that), but some IM2 fans are equally ridiculous, a few on here have claimed that I am a DC fanboy for pointing out facts about the BO despite the fact that a Marvel character has sat proudly as my avatar for the past year.

 

[danoyse]

ElMariachi, since you clearly have no interest in the box office discussion, please do not continue trolling this thread. The act is getting old.

 

[Milkman95]

What a laughable comment. People here are jealous of Nolan? Going to see BB/TDK/Inception multiple times in the theater and advertising his films on the internet didn't put any more money in your bank account then it did mine.

True, but I don't think it's laughable at all, it's pretty obvious fans on both sides have biased opinions when it comes to their preferred properties and who they "root" for, that's why I wrote that.

I compare it to rooting for your favorite sports team, which doesn't do one thing for you besides make you feel better when they win....

 

[Original Spawn]

The movie was actually a good hit.

 

[ddddeeee]

$9.7M on tuesday for Inception. Simply outstanding. $300M could very well happen.

 

[Tony Stark]

$9.7M on tuesday for Inception. Simply outstanding. $300M could very well happen.

First off, there's an Inception thread if you want to talk about that. Second, no way is it going to make 300M. For it to make 300 million it would have to have a 4.9x multiplier. Sorry that isn't going to happen. In fact it probably won't make 200 million as with a 3x multiplier it would be at 186M.

I loved inception, it was a fantastic movie. But let's have a reality check.

 

[danoyse]

First off, there's an Inception thread if you want to talk about that. Second, no way is it going to make 300M. For it to make 300 million it would have to have a 4.9x multiplier. Sorry that isn't going to happen. In fact it probably won't make 200 million as with a 3x multiplier it would be at 186M.

I loved inception, it was a fantastic movie. But let's have a reality check.

You have talked about Inception. Now no one else can?

Inception is expected to pass $100 million by Thursday. $200 million is entirely possible, as long as WOM continues to be strong and the repeated viewings continue.

 

[Tony Stark]

You have talked about Inception. Now no one else can?

Inception is expected to pass $100 million by Thursday. $200 million is entirely possible, as long as WOM continues to be strong and the repeated viewings continue.

But someone talking about Iron Man can't post here?

Anyway, 200 is possible, depends on next weekend. I immagine it will be no. 1 again, as Salt doesn't seem all that interesting. It's not going to make 300 million.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

So again we have biases working overtime. Somehow Disney is panicking over IM2's gross but WB is perfectly happy with Inception's gross.

If Inception makes 270 million that will match the domestic profit of IM2...how much you wanna bet that will be seen in a different light?

 

[Anita18]

But someone talking about Iron Man can't post here?

Anyway, 200 is possible, depends on next weekend. I immagine it will be no. 1 again, as Salt doesn't seem all that interesting. It's not going to make 300 million.

It's going to make $200 million. Nolan has never had a film go under a 3.3 multiplier. Not even TDK, which has the opening weekend record.

But why ARE we talking about Inception in a IM2 box office thread?

 

[FlawlessVictory]

It's going to make $200 million. Nolan has never had a film go under a 3.3 multiplier. Not even TDK, which has the opening weekend record.

But why ARE we talking about Inception in a IM2 box office thread?

He started it t::

People over at WB must be suicidal at the weekend Inception had, 62 mill dom and 15 mill foreign.

With Salt coming out this weekend, and the pretty stacked weekend on the 30th, it'll be lucky if it makes it's money back.

Looks like WB have a disappointment in their hands.

 

[hatebox]

It'll make 200m comfortably. I was very dubious about about its 300m prospects but that Monday hold is concrete proof that word of mouth is working like a charm on this film. Still very unlikely, but who knows. I haven't seen internet buzz like this for a blockbuster in a while.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's going to make $200 million. Nolan has never had a film go under a 3.3 multiplier. Not even TDK, which has the opening weekend record.

But why ARE we talking about Inception in a IM2 box office thread?

That's what I brought up in the first place!

Someone did a hit and run post saying it was going to make 300 million and it made me laugh.

I won't say it will easily make 200 million until the weekend. 3.4 is probably the highest for this film which will put it at 210. My guess is it will make 200 regardless as WB is notorious for fudging the numbers.

 

[Anita18]

That's what I brought up in the first place!

Someone did a hit and run post saying it was going to make 300 million and it made me laugh.

I won't say it will easily make 200 million until the weekend. 3.4 is probably the highest for this film which will put it at 210. My guess is it will make 200 regardless as WB is notorious for fudging the numbers.

Nothing will EVER beat Paramount and TF2 and Puerto Rico.

 

[Iron_Stark]

So again we have biases working overtime. Somehow Disney is panicking over IM2's gross but WB is perfectly happy with Inception's gross.

If Inception makes 270 million that will match the domestic profit of IM2...how much you wanna bet that will be seen in a different light?

Exactly. If Disney/Marvel are panicking about IM's gross then WB must be on suicide watch and giving Nolan his walking papers.



And Inception making 300 million?

 

[Marvin]

it will perform just as Karate Kid has...
but with more than twice the budget.

 

[souvlaki]

Exactly. If Disney/Marvel are panicking about IM's gross then WB must be on suicide watch and giving Nolan his walking papers.



And Inception making 300 million?

You can laugh if you want but I'll come out and say right now it will not only hit $300 million but will possibly match or surpass Iron Man 2. Here's an example of how from the BOM messageboard:

COTBP came out at about he same time of year and had a 46m PG-13 action movie come out in its second weekend. It opened on a Wed so it makes it hard to compare, but if you look at the first 5 days as its 3 day OW, it made 7.84m more than Inception's true 3 day. It made 34m in its second weekend and went on to make 305m.

So for Inception to make 300m, it has to basically keep pace with COTBP from here.

Day....Inception......Curse of the Black Pearl
0........0.00m.................24.00m
1.......21.78m.................14.84m
2.......21.79m( +0.0% ).........17.41m( +17.3% )
3.......19.21m( -11.8% ).......14.37m( -17.5% )

4.......10.19m( -47% ).........7.50m( -47.8% )
5.......9.77m( -4.1% ).........7.35m( -2.0% )
6........?.??m( -?.?% ).........7.06m( -4.0% )
7........?.??m( -?.?% ).........6.43m( -8.8% )

8.......??.??m( +?.?% )........10.51m( +63.3% )
9.......??.??m( +?.?% )........13.10m( +24.7% )
10......??.??m( -?.?% )........10.43m( -20.3% )


Inception gained 2.42m on COTBP yesterday.


After "5" days:

COTBP: $85.48m
Inception: $82.74m( -2.74m )

No way to know for certain until we see the numbers for this weekend but it's already looking as if the legs on this film are better than anything we've seen this summer. Also to compare expectations for a sequel to a popular film that made over $300 million to expectations for an unknown property is ridiculous. A $300 million domestic take from Inception is not the same as a $300 million domestic take from Iron Man. Like it or not the expectations for both are completely different.

 

[Milkman95]

Exactly. If Disney/Marvel are panicking about IM's gross then WB must be on suicide watch and giving Nolan his walking papers.



And Inception making 300 million?

You can't compare the films - one is an original science fiction film and the other is a highly anticipated sequel coming off a huge first film. Marvel/Disney shouldn't panic, but not making as much domestically as the first film has to be somewhat of a surprise and a little disappointing.

 

[ElMariachi]

Well, people who are interested in this stuff do discuss it for other businesses, just like we do for movies, I like to discuss the financial side of Football Clubs, particularly the one i support.
And again, this is a boxoffice thread, hence why we are discussing it.

Sure, people discuss finances of businesses all the time, but rarely in a competitive manner. That is what this is all about and why I have taken issue with people on here. Biases, fanboyism, and schadenfreude (or some weird form of it) has plagued this thread from the get-go. It's obvious when the fans of the movie who are happy with the money it made (which is apparently enough for a sequel) have their parades rained on by those who insist that Marvel/Iron Man fans should be disapointed.

I havent found them petty arguments at all, all the good acting in the world doesnt make for a coherent and emotionally powerful movie. Parts of this movie were a mess, and the movie itself was simply lifeless, there was no emotion or powerful moments in the movie. Despite me being dissapointed with the action we got (which is an important part of any ACTION movie and so it is a valid criticism that the action was poor for a $200 million dollar movie, I dont expect to be walking out of a $200 million summer action movie complaining about the action), its the powerful moments that always keep me coming back to such movies, and this movie barely had one emotionally powerful scene and for me, such moments make movies, this was my biggest criticism, there were some serious situations in this movie and all of them tended to get turned into a joke.

Sure it does. Good acting makes any movie instantly better and memorable. The acting of RDJ alone makes this movie better then almost any film in this genre.

As for plot, where was it a mess? Where was it lifeless? At least in compared to Iron Man and other superhero movies. Not a single superhero movie has been made that had a great plot. Even TDK's (considered the greatest SH film) was predictable to all but those who grew up living under a rock and didnt' know the heel change of Harvey Dent. And yet, Iron Man 2 is being judged as if it should have a plot of an Oscar worthy movie. There was nothing in this movie that was hard to understand plot wise and it flowed pretty well in my honest opinion. The characters were great, the dialouge was wittier and more well written then most movies, and it had some cool action scenes. Sure, the final battle could have been longer, some might have thought the first film was better, and they spent a bit more money then was probally needed. But how does ANY of those things bump this movies quality down to the level people have set it at? Like I said, petty arguments that are being used to harsly judge a summer popcorn flick as if it was intended to be a Coen Brothers movie. The critics and audiences enjoyed the predictable plot having dreck known as Avatar and judged it purely on CGI. Can somebody tell me why Iron Man 2 was expected to be There Will Be Blood with armored suits and other similar movies are given leeway?

But some IM2 fans are just as bad, how anyone can claim Marvel wont be best please that this didnt make as much profit as the first movie, yet people on here keep claiming Marvel will be delighted, they will be happy, but they didnt pump an extra $50 million + into the movie for it to make less profit than the first movie did in its BO run, yet some people on here think Marvel are throwing party left, right and centre at the take and wont accept anything different.

No, they really aren't at all from my experience. Most of the Iron Man fans loved IM2 and were happy with how it turned out. I can recall all the mediocre reviews that popped up on here and people freaking out---then people seeing that it was all a bunch of bs after they saw it.

As for box office, why should we or anybody else care? Nobody here works for Marvel (or DC) and don't stand to profit from the success/failure of these movies. They are making a sequel. Isn't this all that matters to a fan of a movie? Like I said, this isn't about that. It's a d--k measuring contest. Box office numbers never meant anything before. Now they are a badge of honor for geek fanbases that bring them up as some sort of personal accomplishment. It's sickening, at least for a level headed guy like me that enjoys (or tries to) all superhero flicks regardless of what company makes them.

I am no defender of the rabid Bat-fans, I dont find TDK as good as some make out (though its still the best CB movie for me and was much better than IM2, hence as a Marvel fan my dissapointment at that), but some IM2 fans are equally ridiculous, a few on here have claimed that I am a DC fanboy for pointing out facts about the BO despite the fact that a Marvel character has sat proudly as my avatar for the past year.

They have been getting under my skin because I love Batman and the Nolan movies. But their obnoxious trolling and boosterism knows no boundaries. I have seen them everywhere, even on websites that have nothing to do with movies. We get it, TDK was awesome (and so was Inception)---but they act like they in some exclusive club of Nolan fans. He is a mainstream director now and their zealous support of anything he does is reminiscent of other fanbases who think they are still on the fringe (cough Apple cough). I wish these people could all just grow up so I can look upon the Batman franchise as I did before TDK. Now, it's just the Hot Topic crowd rushing the internet with their endless n-thugging of anything Nolan/Batman.

 

[ElMariachi]

ElMariachi, since you clearly have no interest in the box office discussion, please do not continue trolling this thread. The act is getting old.

with all due respect, I don't really see how I am trolling. I am discussing things and engaging with those who disagree with my takes. Trolls make their attacks and then fly away to avoid those who challenge their ridiculous points. I think my points have made sense and are relevant to this thread. This movie isn't going to make any more real money anyway so I see no harm in me pointing out how silly people act sometimes.

 

[ElMariachi]

True, but I don't think it's laughable at all, it's pretty obvious fans on both sides have biased opinions when it comes to their preferred properties and who they "root" for, that's why I wrote that.

I compare it to rooting for your favorite sports team, which doesn't do one thing for you besides make you feel better when they win....

Why is there bias anyway? Who of us on this website cannot honestly afford two $2.99 comics from both D.C. and Marvel? I never understand this black and white fanboyism. You even see dudes arguing over who is a better web browser!

As for sports, they represent locations and groups of people. Cheering for a product, a cartoon, or a film company makes no sense unless a person has their own money involved. If I was a major shareholder of Marvel (or Disney now), then I would be more interested. But nobody on here has that kind of attachments, so I don't see the point of fanboyism.

 

[ElMariachi]

You can't compare the films - one is an original science fiction film and the other is a highly anticipated sequel coming off a huge first film. Marvel/Disney shouldn't panic, but not making as much domestically as the first film has to be somewhat of a surprise and a little disappointing.

The economy has to play a role in this. The 8 million that it is behind IM can easily be explained by people just not spending the $40+ to take the kids to see this movie for a second time. Some of the people on here really have no idea how bad it is out there. Movies aren't cheap. Plus, there wasn't any 3D, which they probally regret not having along with giving IM2 a pretty high budget. Also, IM2 is an adult movie and has way too much talking to continue attracting younger people. The potential audience for IM may be tapped at 300mil+ domestic.

Spiderman is beloved by children. Batman is probally the most famous superhero and an American icon. After that, it's Iron Man. I don't see how they can be disapointed with this----especially after he was only a B-list hero within this past decade.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

truth, if I was any of the guys in charge at Marvel Studios I would be more than pleased with the popularity spike in the character over the past couple of years