Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[vailian48]

does anyone read anything on about how many weeks IM3 is supposed to be in theatres?

 

[Iceman]

The BoT forums are saying 3-4.6M but those numbers are not official. Not sure if they came from Nikki Finke or RTH. I'm guessing toward 4M or higher because both IM1 and 2 were around the 3.7M range for the same Monday.

Congrats! t:

$4,615,742


Domestic: $289,562,441 30.4%
+ Foreign: $664,100,000 69.6%
= Worldwide: $953,662,441

 

[Raiden]

I hope even with STID, IM3 will have a smaller-than-usual drop in its 3rd week.

 

[Tony Stark]

Congrats! t:

$4,615,742


Domestic: $289,562,441 30.4%
+ Foreign: $664,100,000 69.6%
= Worldwide: $953,662,441

ha ha! t: thanks!

 

[schiz0id]

Global is now at $980m is there a chance that it will cross $1bn today? Fingers crossed!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

On Friday, yes.

Before Friday, no.

 

[KangConquers]

Even with Star Trek on the horizon, this thing is going to make it to $1.25 B. There's no scenario where this doesn't make at least another $150-200 M foreign, and another $100-150 M domestic.

 

[vailian48]

a third weekend of 30+ is very likely even if star trek dominates as someone said on an earlier post, but how much above 30 is possible? adjusted, iron man did 35 million in its 3rd weekend and iron man 2 did 26 million

iron man 3 has absolutely no chance in the world to do 50+ or even upper 40s but what are the chances for lower 40s?

 

[Iceman]

Even with Star Trek on the horizon, this thing is going to make it to $1.25 B. There's no scenario where this doesn't make at least another $150-200 M foreign, and another $100-150 M domestic.

And that means Marvel will have 2 films in the top 5 All Time Worldwide. Just Avatar, Titanic & the final Harry Potter film in the way! t:

 

[vailian48]

nevermind, boxofficemojo is saying they are predicting 33 million for its 3rd weekend so according to them though lowers 40s wont happen but still though, 33 is less than iron man 1 for its third weekend though

 

[KangConquers]

nevermind, boxofficemojo is saying they are predicting 33 million for its 3rd weekend so according to them though lowers 40s wont happen but still though, 33 is less than iron man 1 for its third weekend though

It's actually 2 Million more than Iron Man 1 did.

 

[vailian48]

sorry about that, my bad, forgot to mention it,

adjusted for inflation, iron man 1 is at 35 million for its 3rd weekend

 

[Tony Stark]

nevermind, boxofficemojo is saying they are predicting 33 million for its 3rd weekend so according to them though lowers 40s wont happen but still though, 33 is less than iron man 1 for its third weekend though

IM1 made 31M on it's third weekend, and it benefitted from a weak performance by Prince Caspian.

 

[KangConquers]

sorry about that, my bad, forgot to mention it,

adjusted for inflation, iron man 1 is at 35 million for its 3rd weekend

Adjusted for inflation, Grease also outperformed The Avengers. We're not talking about inflation.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

Adjusted for inflation, Grease also outperformed The Avengers. We're not talking about inflation.

 

[schiz0id]

@giteshpandya:#IronMan3 hits the trifecta today! Breaks $300M domestic, $700M intl & $1 billion worldwide. Plenty more cash to come.

 

[Iceman]

Haha, that's great that they all happened on the same day!

 

[thalidomide]

Is that legit? I just saw an updated tweet from Exhibitor Relations

@ERCboxoffice: IRON MAN 3 update: Domestic - $298.6M, Int'l - $691.9M, WW - $990.5M

 

[Chewy]

That ERC #'s through Wednesday. Today's numbers will only be released tomorrow, but yeah it'll cross 1B sometime today

 

[BigThor]

Adjusted for inflation, Grease also outperformed The Avengers. We're not talking about inflation.

That's why adjusting for inflation is pointless, I thought people stopped doing that years ago.

 

[Mjölnir]

That's why adjusting for inflation is pointless, I thought people stopped doing that years ago.

Yes, if you adjust for inflation you also need to adjust for the level of competition in entertainment. A lot more changes with the times than just the value of a dollar.

 

[Iceman]

Yes, if you adjust for inflation you also need to adjust for the level of competition in entertainment. A lot more changes with the times than just the value of a dollar.

Yeah, there's too many factors to make a meaningful calculation. Over time the old films will always win out domestically and the modern films worldwide.

 

[Tony Stark]

While it's still to early to tell, it looks like Star Trek didn't do as well in Thursday showings as expected. BoM had predicted 117 for the 4 day run (89 over the weekend), but I don't see how that's possible at this point. The expectation was 25-30M for Thursday, and the high side ratings are 14M, but later numbers showed it going down to 11M. I think it will rebound somewhat, but in all likelihood the 4 day run will be under 100M, or maybe just at 100M.

Moreover, I think that based on that, I don't think this is going to effect Iron Man near as much as some had thought. If it does open under 100M, this is basically the same audience as the first film with 3D boost and inflation. I think Iron Man can do 35M or better.

 

[Iceman]

Bit of a shame. Wanted ST to do well too.

 

[schiz0id]

Bit of a shame. Wanted ST to do well too.

Yeah me too. I want Into Darkness to at least have a hefty opening because I am not worried about IM3's long-term box office prospects anymore.