Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[rashad]

It is very encouraging that interest in Iron Man 3 is even higher than it was for The Avengers. That definitely shows that there is an "Avengers Effect" on interest in Marvel films.


Tracking for the biggest blockbusters is usually low, so IM3 will undoubtedly exceed projections. The Hunger Games was tracked for $100 million at this point before it was released, which was over $50 million off the mark. Should that hold true for IM3, $175 million+ isn't out of question.

I think it has more to do with Iron Man being the most popular MCU character and the fact that it's been 3 years since the last film. The true litmus test of this "Avengers Effect" will come into play with the Thor and CA sequels.

 

[Juicy J]

You could make an argument for both. I think it was a very smart, if not obvious, choice on marvel's part to release their biggest character's movie right after the Avengers came out. Striking while the iron is hot and striking hard.
The more I think about it the more I don't think 1 billion is going to happen. I think it's possible, and as everyone else has said it depends on the WOM to take it over that tipping point, but it'd be tough especially considering the competition.
I'm gonna say 850-900 million dollar gross WW, 140-150 million opening weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think 150 is probably in the bag opening weekend. That's pretty much IM2's opening weekend with 3D boost and inflation. I won't speculate further until we get some real tracking data, but I think we will all be pleasantly surprised.

My bigger worry is audience hold after week 3. Star Trek looks very good, and I think at least domestically it could present a challenge. I think we all agree that competition for IM3 is much stiffer than what Avengers faced. But it will be safely no. 1 for two weeks. I think Great Gatsby looks like a huge bomb. I freaking hated reading that book in highschool, and I hated the Robert Redford movie even more.

 

[Mr. Dent]

3 weeks is enough time for it to run its course, in terms of big gains weekend after weekend, domestically, and internationally, obviously, we won't have to worry about those kinds of things.

 

[spideymouse]

$160m opening week would be incredible. Threatening TDK territory.

...admittedly, with the help of 3D ticket prices.

 

[kedrell]

Money is money, I say.

 

[BigThor]

Money is money, I say.

Clearly, whether a film is boosted by 3D or inflation doesn't really matter.

 

[Marvel]

No one here is talking about the competition.

How much will The Great Gatsby and Star Trek cut in to the run? Those trailers looked cool on the MTV movie awards and both drew a big reaction. Those films are after the exact same demographic dollar really. Then May 24th more big drain for sure with Fast & Furious and Hangover.

This May seems different to me because every film seems to be after the same money. No chick flicks and no Pixar type films. I think IM3 will be the champion no doubt but how can it have Avengers type legs?

 

[Webfoot Hero]

No one here is talking about the competition.

How much will The Great Gatsby and Star Trek cut in to the run? Those trailers looked cool on the MTV movie awards and both drew a big reaction. Those films are after the exact same demographic dollar really. Then May 24th more big drain for sure with Fast & Furious and Hangover.

This May seems different to me because every film seems to be after the same money. No chick flicks and no Pixar type films. I think IM3 will be the champion no doubt but how can it have Avengers type legs?

I'm not sure it will considering all the big movies seemed to move away from The Avengers while now everyone seems to not be afraid of following IM3. Best thing working for IM3 is it goes first.

 

[Mr. Dent]

There's a three week difference. That's a big enough gap. Not to mention its release date in NA doesn't even apply to the rest of the world.

 

[Xeno]

Gatsby doesn't target the same demo as Iron Man 3; it'll skew older and more female. By the time STD comes out IM3 will have hoovered up the majority of ticket sales for two solid weeks in NA. This reminds me of last year when Dark Shadows and Battle**** were supposed to undercut The Avengers. While I am not going to argue that IM3 will match TA's remarkable run at the box office, I do think that it will be strong enough to keep raking in cash throughout May. Strong WOM and great reviews could see it glide along for a good run.

 

[mkilban2]

Gatsby doesn't target the same demo as Iron Man 3; it'll skew older and more female. By the time STD comes out IM3 will have hoovered up the majority of ticket sales for two solid weeks in NA. This reminds me of last year when Dark Shadows and Battle**** were supposed to undercut The Avengers. While I am not going to argue that IM3 will match TA's remarkable run at the box office, I do think that it will be strong enough to keep raking in cash throughout May. Strong WOM and great reviews could see it glide along for a good run.

Just from what I can tell between the people in my age range that I'm friends with on facebook and twitter, Gatsby is definitely going to do very well in the 20-25 demographic. Seems like most people I know around my age are interested in it. Plus you generally can't go wrong with Leo and Gatsby it's arguably one of the greatest books of all time.

Not saying it's going to beat out IM3, but it's going to do well in the box office I would think.

 

[cherokeesam]

I think Gatsby will do very well, but it's not the geek demographic of IM3 and STID. Luhrmann/Gatsby is for the arthouse and hipster crowds; Luhrmann has never made a certified blockbuster. Best he's managed is Moulin Rouge and Australia, both coming in at $179.1 mil and $211.3 mil ww lifetime, respectively. Gatsby is going to struggle to even snag the #1 spot on OW.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Just from what I can tell between the people in my age range that I'm friends with on facebook and twitter, Gatsby is definitely going to do very well in the 20-25 demographic. Seems like most people I know around my age are interested in it. Plus you generally can't go wrong with Leo and Gatsby it's arguably one of the greatest books of all time.

Not saying it's going to beat out IM3, but it's going to do well in the box office I would think.

My whole senior class was forced to read that book back in high school. Don't know how it is for other school districts/states. Assuming it's similar all across the country, awareness is going to be high for our age group.

 

[kedrell]

I think Gatsby will do very well, but it's not the geek demographic of IM3 and STID. Luhrmann/Gatsby is for the arthouse and hipster crowds; Luhrmann has never made a certified blockbuster. Best he's managed is Moulin Rouge and Australia, both coming in at $179.1 mil and $211.3 mil ww lifetime, respectively. Gatsby is going to struggle to even snag the #1 spot on OW.

Uh, there's no struggle. It simply isn't going to happen. No way in hell it beats IM3 on it's 2nd weekend. IM3 should still be pulling anywhere between 65-85M on that weekend. I don't see how Gatsby would ever open that high, even with zero competition.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

My whole senior class was forced to read that book back in high school. Don't know how it is for other school districts/states. Assuming it's similar all across the country, awareness is going to be high for our age group.

My senior class had to read the book, but that doesn't mean people that age want to rush out and go see it. People know about it but they'll likely rather go see things they're interested in.

 

[Tony Stark]

GG has been required reading in schools for decades. Like I say they already did a movie about it with Robert Redford. I personally thought the book was stupid, and this movie looks like more Technicolor vomit. Baz Luhrmann has been making **** movies for decades, I don't hold much hope for this one.

 

[Mr. Dent]

My senior class had to read the book, but that doesn't mean people that age want to rush out and go see it. People know about it but they'll likely rather go see things they're interested in.

I said awareness not excitement.

 

[flickchick85]

Honestly, I think a lot of people who had to read that book in school kind of hated it, lol. At least, that's the impression I got from my class when we did. I think that movie's gonna suffer from the culture clash of the people who actually appreciate the book not appreciating Baz's modern aesthetic, while the generation who would appreciate the aesthetic have little-to-no love for the story they were forced to read as teens. I'll be shocked if it takes the top spot.

I will see it because I see every Baz Luhrmann film that comes out since R+J, and anything would be an improvement over the Redford/Farrow version, imo. But I don't care for the story at all, so I don't have high expectations.

 

[mkilban2]

My whole senior class was forced to read that book back in high school. Don't know how it is for other school districts/states. Assuming it's similar all across the country, awareness is going to be high for our age group.

Yeah we also had to read it junior or senior year

My senior class had to read the book, but that doesn't mean people that age want to rush out and go see it. People know about it but they'll likely rather go see things they're interested in.

I think many people see that name, and see Leo Dicaprio and remember they read the book, and think hey others I know are seeing this film I might as well too.

 

[JayJustROTFL]

Being realistic, there is no chance of this film making above 800m.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

Being realistic, there is no chance of this film making above 800m.

iron man 2 made over 600 and that wasn't in 3d. so you're wrong, there's a good chance it will make well over 800 million (inflated cost of 3d)

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

Delete

 

[Steyin]

My whole senior class was forced to read that book back in high school. Don't know how it is for other school districts/states. Assuming it's similar all across the country, awareness is going to be high for our age group.

I only know one person who read it in school, and that is my gf who is from Florida. Not a lot of required reading here in NY, at least not in Brooklyn.

 

[Lorus]

Being realistic, there is no chance of this film making above 800m.

What's your reasoning behind that? I no little about box office statistics but from mere observation of the films that make a billion, and the previous installments, it seems likely that Iron Man 3 has a great chance of breaking 800m or even a billion.

The Pirates films breaking a billion suggests to me that if your film is part of an established franchise, has a likable, charismatic protagonist, can promise family friendly action and is marketed well, you have a fighting chance. Then, factor in the fact that Iron Man 2 made around 600m without 3D and three years of inflation. Then factor in the ridiculous pop cultural monolith of the hugely popular Avengers and it seems that betting against it could be the dangerous option.