Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[spider-neil]

I'm hoping news of Spidey joining Avengers leaks before ASM2 so Spidey can get an Avengers boost as well.

 

[Moridin]

It was augmented with the early May release. Now it's going to the Fall. Thor in November is a good move, except they picked the worst November for it. It will be owned by Catching Fire in its third weekend and I am not sure it's going to open big enough to mitigate that effect, plus whatever else comes out during the Holidays. Hobbit 2 not far behind that.

2 weeks is plenty time, many places internationally TDW is out a week earlier. Hobbit is 5-6 weeks after. Other then that there isn't much competition (maybe Enders Game, Anchor Man 2), those 3 films are spread out enough that they can all co-exist and run through December into the new year and make plenty $$$.

Last Nov/Dec had Skyfall ($1bn), Twilight ($800m) & Hobbit ($1bn), along with smaller blockbusters like Wreck it Ralph ($470m), Django ($420m)

I'm hoping news of Spidey joining Avengers leaks before ASM2 so Spidey can get an Avengers boost as well.

Not happening.

 

[BigThor]

^ I'd say Thor:TDW has a good chance of being in the same spot as Twilight last year ($800m).

 

[Tony Stark]

This movie is on track to be above $600M WW by the end of this weekend, once the NA, China and Russia results hit. That's nearly as much as IM2 took in its entire theatrical run, in just twelve days. Unbelievable.


The people who argued that there would be no Avengers Affect for the Phase Two films should be enjoying a healthy serving of crow right now.

And to those people eating crow, I hate to say I told you so.....but I told you so!

 

[kaijunexus]

^ I'd say Thor:TDW has a good chance of being in the same spot as Twilight last year ($800m).

Thor definitely benefits from the popularity of its actors (mostly Hemsworth and Hiddleston, especially in regards to female demographics)...so I could absolutely see it hitting 800 WW.

Even Guardians has a lot of interest and hype just because its so different, so I think that could see a large profit as well.

The only one I'm really worried about is Cap. I don't feel like the GA ever got that excited about him (in his first movie, or even in Avengers), and I haven't seen Evans gain as much fangirl love as Hemsworth or Hiddleston. Really hope that movie ends up looking amazing so that hype machine starts rumbling!

 

[Mr. Dent]

How in the hell was Iron Man the main character, it was already shown that Captain America had the most screentime.

Besides, Thor grossed about 450 million it's going to blow pass the 500 million mark in the first two weeks.

I was being sarcastic.

I'm hoping news of Spidey joining Avengers leaks before ASM2 so Spidey can get an Avengers boost as well.

Spider-Man doesn't need an Avengers boost.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'd say Cap is in a much better situation then GotG. Especially with Widow ends up being the co-lead. We are very much in a seeing is believing place with GotG. That they haven't started filming already is a slight concern considering how heavy the special effects are going to be. The kind of film they are describing usually takes more then a year of real post-work.

 

[kaijunexus]

I'd say Cap is in a much better situation then GotG. Especially with Widow ends up being the co-lead.

I agree that ScarJo's inclusion (and SLJ and even Redford) helps Cap 2...but I just don't see the kind of heightened excitement for Cap outside of the fans like I do for Iron Man or Thor.

We are very much in a seeing is believing place with GotG. That they haven't started filming already is a slight concern considering how heavy the special effects are going to be. The kind of film they are describing usually takes more then a year of real post-work.

Not if they're smart about it and do as much practical effects work as possible, saving CG for when they absolutely need it.

 

[Iceman]

Spider-Man doesn't need an Avengers boost.

Things that make money don't need a boost. Noone has ever suggested Spider-man needs an Avengers boost. Generally speaking though, boosts of various types are often looked on favourably by many.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I agree that ScarJo's inclusion (and SLJ and even Redford) helps Cap 2...but I just don't see the kind of heightened excitement for Cap outside of the fans like I do for Iron Man or Thor.

Yeah, but we aren't comparing it to those films, but GotG. I know that IM3 and TDW are the big hitters amongst the general audience.

Not if they're smart about it and do as much practical effects work as possible, saving CG for when they absolutely need it.

At least one character is full on CGI. We have seen Star Wars like bar scene and giant space ships. The entire movie is going to absolutely need CGI.

 

[kaijunexus]

At least one character is full on CGI. We have seen Star Wars like bar scene and giant space ships. The entire movie is going to absolutely need CGI.

I'm talking scene to scene. The majority of the characters in this movie can be done with practical effects work, as is the case with most of the sets.

In fact, I would imagine that Thor:TDW would probably necessitate just as much CGI work as GotG (we know that at least one of Thor's characters is also fully CG), but you don't seem too concerned about that...

 

[Norek]

Thor definitely benefits from the popularity of its actors (mostly Hemsworth and Hiddleston, especially in regards to female demographics)...so I could absolutely see it hitting 800 WW.

Even Guardians has a lot of interest and hype just because its so different, so I think that could see a large profit as well.

The only one I'm really worried about is Cap. I don't feel like the GA ever got that excited about him (in his first movie, or even in Avengers), and I haven't seen Evans gain as much fangirl love as Hemsworth or Hiddleston. Really hope that movie ends up looking amazing so that hype machine starts rumbling!

Can't believe I'm about to say this (and I really mean it), but Cap 2 is (and was even before IM3 came out) the Phase 2 movie I'm most excited about. There, I said it. Never really was a fan of Captain America, but I enjoyed his solo movie quite a bit, and for some reason, from what I'm hearing and seeing and reading about The Winter Soldier, it makes me really excited about it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm talking scene to scene. The majority of the characters in this movie can be done with practical effects work, as is the case with most of the sets.

Except that all cost a lot more money. That is why you have the hangars in The First Avengers. Practical effects and creating sets cost a lot more and take more time to do.

In fact, I would imagine that Thor:TDW would probably necessitate just as much CGI work as GotG (we know that at least one of Thor's characters is also fully CG), but you don't seem too concerned about that...

I am almost positive Thor's budget will be far higher then Guardians. It will also have a lot of "real world" locations. Remember the battle scene we have seen so much of? Another world, but in the same way GoT is in another world. They have major scenes set on Earth.

Most importantly, I doubt TDW has a main character that is completely CGI.

Can't believe I'm about to say this (and I really mean it), but Cap 2 is (and was even before IM3 came out) the Phase 2 movie I'm most excited about. There, I said it. Never really was a fan of Captain America, but I enjoyed his solo movie quite a bit, and for some reason, from what I'm hearing and seeing and reading about The Winter Soldier, it makes me really excited about it.

TDW is still my #1, but TWS is a close second and closing. Everything I see I love.

 

[Norek]

TDW is still my #1, but TWS is a close second and closing. Everything I see I love.

For some reason I'm indifferent to TDW. The trailer did nothing for me. There's still time to get excited, but at this point I couldn't care less.

 

[Tony Stark]

TDW is going to surprise people. Hemsworth and Hiddleston are pretty much bonified stars right now, and I think this film will probably have the largest post Avengers jump of any of the MCU films.

The trailer looked fantastic, and shows how much bigger and more epic they've made the film.

"You should know that when you betray me, I will kill you."

That's just freaking epic stuff.

 

[Norek]

TDW is going to surprise people. Hemsworth and Hiddleston are pretty much bonified stars right now, and I think this film will probably have the largest post Avengers jump of any of the MCU films.

The trailer looked fantastic, and shows how much bigger and more epic they've made the film.

"You should know that when you betray me, I will kill you."

That's just freaking epic stuff.

I dunno, it's too early to tell. I hope it doesn't surprise me in an IM3 kind of way.

The trailer didn't really show that much, and didn't impress me at all. I'll wait until I see something more.

 

[Mr.M]

I'm not looking forward to either film. I think they will both be better, but I just don't feel it. The solo movies did nothing for me and left me very dissappointed. I chose to skip Cap:TFA in theatres. Hopefully we get a better effort, but it will depend on the reviews and WOM for me to consider watching either sequel in theatres. GotG, got no idea. Not anticipating the film at all, largely because of my unfamiliarity with the material.

 

[Mjölnir]

I dunno, it's too early to tell. I hope it doesn't surprise me in an IM3 kind of way.

The trailer didn't really show that much, and didn't impress me at all. I'll wait until I see something more.

I'd say that the TDW trailer showed a ton of things when it comes to comparing to the first movie. Better effects and cinematography, a clearly bigger plot and conflict, a new artistic design line etc. What impresses someone is always personal but I can't grasp the opinion of that the trailer didn't show much about what kind of step the movie takes from it's predecessor.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'd say that the TDW trailer showed a ton of things when it comes to comparing to the first movie. Better effects and cinematography, a clearly bigger plot and conflict, a new artistic design line etc. What impresses someone is always personal but I can't grasp the opinion of that the trailer didn't show much about what kind of step the movie takes from it's predecessor.

Cinematography is probably the biggest thing for me. I love the first film, but Asgard seemed somewhat "cramped" if that makes sense? This film the shots are wide open, you really get a sense of space that just didn't seem to be there in the first movie.

 

[T"Challa]

Cinematography is probably the biggest thing for me. I love the first film, but Asgard seemed somewhat "cramped" if that makes sense? This film the shots are wide open, you really get a sense of space that just didn't seem to be there in the first movie.

Completely agree with the 'cramped' statement. yeah i think you and i had this conversation somewhere on the Thor board. I felt like the Asgard cinematography for the first film was a little too glossy and clean. The trailer made it look more real and elemental. I hope there are a ton of wide shots in this

 

[Mjölnir]

Cinematography is probably the biggest thing for me. I love the first film, but Asgard seemed somewhat "cramped" if that makes sense? This film the shots are wide open, you really get a sense of space that just didn't seem to be there in the first movie.

Yes, I think I get it. There are some really big shots, like the throne room at the interrupted coronation, but I think the trailer showed that the new movie will get the feel of that better. I guess they make the space come alive to a new extent. And as T"Challa says the more natural look probably makes more people buy into it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm not looking forward to either film. I think they will both be better, but I just don't feel it. The solo movies did nothing for me and left me very dissappointed. I chose to skip Cap:TFA in theatres. Hopefully we get a better effort, but it will depend on the reviews and WOM for me to consider watching either sequel in theatres. GotG, got no idea. Not anticipating the film at all, largely because of my unfamiliarity with the material.

That is unfortunate. You probably missed the best Marvel movie yet in theaters.

Yes, I think I get it. There are some really big shots, like the throne room at the interrupted coronation, but I think the trailer showed that the new movie will get the feel of that better. I guess they make the space come alive to a new extent. And as T"Challa says the more natural look probably makes more people buy into it.

Even the throne room isn't shot in a very convincing way. The movie moves from box to box. But I still love it.

 

[Liam_H]

That is unfortunate. You probably missed the best Marvel movie yet in theaters.

For the first half I would agree. But the 2nd half felt like it was on auto pilot and not in the good way.

 

[spideymouse]

Yes, I think I get it. There are some really big shots, like the throne room at the interrupted coronation, but I think the trailer showed that the new movie will get the feel of that better. I guess they make the space come alive to a new extent. And as T"Challa says the more natural look probably makes more people buy into it.

The lack of French angles makes a big difference, as well. Gives the audience much more of a feel that we're on solid ground or looking at a real place.

As for the wide open shots, I wonder how the 3D conversion will look. If reviews are exceedingly positive, it may be the first MCU movie that I intentionally watch in 3D...

...which would boost the box office. I completely forgot what the subject of this thread was. I'm excited to see IM3 tomorrow night! I'm bringing three people with me.

 

[metaphysician]

GotG could gross $1 billion and there would still be plenty of reason for skepticism about this "shared universe" thing

I'm not sure audiences are really connecting with the shared universe per se...

One misstep and the bubble could burst...

The novelty is wearing off...

Avengers 2 won't seem like such a big deal... t:

IMO, the shared universe "skepticism" is nothing of the sort. The majority of those voicing it are motivated crypto-DC fanboyism, elitist disdain for unapologetically optimistic "popcorn" fare, or Alexei-style hatred of Kevin Feige.