Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Juicy J]

All my friends loved it.

Exactly. Fanboys will gripe about pretty much everything, even though IM2 and this were good.
I like the fact that Marvel made this a ballsy movie and took a lot of risks, and ending up with a great movie with a lot of twists and turns that I never once saw coming.
Doing something like that is guaranteed to piss people off, but so be it because they probably would've found something to get mad at in the first place t:

 

[Joeyjojo72]

That's really your opinion. The general consensus on this is hardly as bad as SM3.

passive aggressive trolling. even more irritating than the straightforward variety. its a solid movie, particularly for us cb/sh fans (no one i know had a problem with the ending). i love shane black's style, so i actually put this on par with IM1. objectively better than the so-so IM2 and the garbage that was SM3.

on-topic: whats everyone's revised final tally? my 900 million seems low all of a sudden.

 

[Juicy J]

HAHAHAHAHAHHA.
Apparently in this poll I voted 650, which blows my mind.
Man oh man, I was so young and foolish.... t:

 

[Tony Stark]

Thursday previews and midnights were $15.6m according to Disney. That is an excellent start. Probably headed for a $170-175m opening weekend.

That's just shy of Avengers midnights, which if memory serves were around 18M. Can't remember what IM2's midnight number was, but I thought it was under 10M. Either way for a May opening that's an excellent number.

Good chance of breaking Potter 7 weekend.

 

[Mr. Dent]

HAHAHAHAHAHHA.
Apparently in this poll I voted 650, which blows my mind.
Man oh man, I was so young and foolish.... t:

I voted $800m.

on-topic: whats everyone's revised final tally? my 900 million seems low all of a sudden.

$1.1b

 

[antonydelfini]

Whew. Glad I voted for 1.1 billion. This film deserves every penny.

 

[redfirebird2008]

That's just shy of Avengers midnights, which if memory serves were around 18M. Can't remember what IM2's midnight number was, but I thought it was under 10M. Either way for a May opening that's an excellent number.

Good chance of breaking Potter 7 weekend.

Avengers midnight was $18.7m, so IM3's $15.6m preview number is 83.42%. If you extrapolate that to the entire weekend compared to $207.4m for Avengers, it would be a $173m opening for IM3. So that's why I said I think it's headed for $170-175m.

 

[third3ye]

Breaking the $1B mark for sure, I say $1.1B. It's beaten Avengers opening week in some countries already. The US gross will be lower than Avengers but the international performance will make up for some of that.

 

[Liam_H]

Movie is on target for $160-180 million opening weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

Word is a 70M Friday.

BTW, I am freaking done with the BOT forums. They were in full meltdown mode last night. People were throwing crap out like $140M weekend based on some early numbers be for all the data was in.

I swear Twitter will be the downfall of Western Civilization.

 

[kedrell]

I'd love for this movie to bomb as hard and fast as it deserves to and teach Marvel a lesson about taking their fans for granted but it won't. It's gonna be a huge lumbering juggernaut. To me this is SM3 all over again.

 

[spider-neil]

I'd love for this movie to bomb as hard and fast as it deserves to and teach Marvel a lesson about taking their fans for granted but it won't. It's gonna be a huge lumbering juggernaut. To me this is SM3 all over again.

C'mon Kedrell, even though I dislike this movie I want it to be a huge success. I am fearful the superhero movie bubble will burst so CBM success will mean more CBM.

2011 I saw;
X:FC, Thor, Cap, GL *shudder*

2012 I saw;
ASM (yay!) Avengers, TDKR, Dredd (yay!) GR *shudder*

2013 I've seen;
IM3 *shudder*

and there is also Thor, and MOS

It's never been a better time to be superhero fan so I want EVERY super hero movie to be a success so I can see more superhero. I wish the summer blockbuster season lasted all year

 

[redfirebird2008]

$68.5m opening day. With IM2's holds the rest of the weekend, it would make $161m. With Avengers' holds the rest of the weekend, it would make $176m. So it is in an awesome position. Disney is saying they expect $165-175m. Sounds about right.

 

[spider-neil]

IM3 'legs' will be really interesting to see because with such a jarring reveal you are either going to love the movie or hate it (or at best be disappointed) so if you fall in the latter group will you watch the movie again? If the answer is 'no' that is going to effect the legs of this movie.

 

[redfirebird2008]

IM3 'legs' will be really interesting to see because with such a jarring reveal you are either going to love the movie or hate it (or at best be disappointed) so if you fall in the latter group will you watch the movie again? If the answer is 'no' that is going to effect the legs of this movie.

Bigger concern for legs is competition. IM3 is facing a lot more competition over the next month or so than IM2 did in 2010.

 

[Pickle-El]

IM3 'legs' will be really interesting to see because with such a jarring reveal you are either going to love the movie or hate it (or at best be disappointed) so if you fall in the latter group will you watch the movie again? If the answer is 'no' that is going to effect the legs of this movie.

That's my take on it....we'll see what happens next weekend. This weekend is a whole lotta Disney/Avengers hype.

We'll see how time treats this film.

 

[metaphysician]

Honestly, I suspect that the "jarring reveal" will be utterly irrelevant to the GA. Nobody who doesn't read comics knows or cares who the Mandarin "actually" is.

 

[KangConquers]

This film will probably manage a typical Marvel studios multiplier of 2.5-3. With current projections of a $170 M weekend, that would mean $425-510 M domestic.

Stronger competition in the month of May than Avengers had will cut off the foreign legs a bit. $750-800 M is likely vs. Avengers almost $900 M, despite a superior overseas OW.

Worst case scenario, I think this sees $1.1 B, best case, it will beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2's $1.328 B.

 

[KangConquers]

Honestly, I suspect that the "jarring reveal" will be utterly irrelevant to the GA. Nobody who doesn't read comics knows or cares who the Mandarin "actually" is.

Bingo. The Iron Man franchise is all about Robert Downey Jr. His Tony Stark is arguably the most popular character in film today. 95% of the audience for this film heard about the Mandarin for the first time with this movie, so it's no skin off their back.

 

[The Caped Knight]

This film will make a lot of money because RDJ is a huge cash cow magnetic to the audience because He's brilliant as Tony Stark because He is Stark. Also IM3 is very entertaining film so I have no doubt it will break Box Office Records.

 

[spider-neil]

The question isn't that people are going to watch IM3, everyone will watch IM3, the question is will everyone watch it twice.

 

[Marvel]

The question isn't that people are going to watch IM3, everyone will watch IM3, the question is will everyone watch it twice.

I'll have seen it three times by Monday...

Certain fans can kid themselves all they want but REAL word of mouth for this movie is excellent. I saw it yesterday with 14 family members and everyone one of them raved. I do mean EVERY one of them. Most are not comic book fans at all.

 

[The Caped Knight]

The question isn't that people are going to watch IM3, everyone will watch IM3, the question is will everyone watch it twice.

It's not The Avengers quality, however it's entertaining and that more than enough.

I've seen it twice already with two different sets of friends who enjoyed it but had nitpicks about certain elements of the film. But both parties agreed that it was better than IM2.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

68.3 million is an excellent number. I thought it was a good film and so did one of my sister's but others in my family were disappointed so we will see what the word of mouth is like.

If it's like IM2 the movie will have an even worst multiplier than that one and that one did not have a good multiplier.

 

[Liam_H]

Curious to see how close this gets to DH2 opening.