Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

Nowadays alot of films(especially animated and big disaster/effects movies) depend pretty heavily on those overseas grosses. More and more, films are being released earlier overseas and outgrossing their domestic takes.

Which is why I think it will gross 1B WW easier than most people think.

 

[Tony Stark]

A lot based on the writers, director, and what we know of the film so far. I'm just talking about from my perspective. Chris Yost is one of my favorite writers right now and Alan Taylor is going to knock this kind of film out of the park. It's also quite clear that the film will take place almost entirely in the 9 realms instead of Earth which means there will be far more opportunities to explore the kind of high-fantasy that wasn't as prevalent in the first film. We're going to get a more personal look at Asgard, and we're getting actual 9 realm villains besides Loki.

That film, for me, will be better than what IM3 is cooking up...and like I said I think Iron Man will be a fantastic film itself, so it's not a knock on it. I'm just expecting this next Thor movie to be what I always wished Harry Potter and LotR were.

Alan Taylor was an excellent choice for Thor. And I am very excited to see what he does.

However the use of the Extremis story line in conjunction with Iron Man's biggest nemesis and add Shane Black. I think this will be the definitive Iron Man movie.

 

[Xeno]

IM3 doesn't have any significant box office competition for two weeks in North America and three weeks overseas. It can roll in the cash and build up a head of steam. While STD looks like it will do well, the Star Trek franchise has never produced a massive blockbuster. Iron Man, on the other hand, is a true four-quadrant monster, just like The Avengers was, though it won't make TA's money. If it truly takes off and becomes a must-see phenomenon, IM3 will do $300M domestic with ease and coast over $400M by the end of its run. STD will have its legs cut out from under it by Fast & Furious 6 and Hangover 3 in its second week. IM3 could be over $300M by that point with any luck.

The biggest competition OS will be FF6. Star Trek does not do very well in foreign markets for some reason. With Cumberbatch as the villain, STD will fare well in the UK and perhaps Europe, but not nearly so well as IM3 and FF6.

 

[Tony Stark]

I agree, that Star Trek has never been associated with the words "block buster", but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Star Trek may end up being the no. 2 film of the summer.

World wide there's no question that IM3 will mop up. Star Trek as you mentioned is not popular overseas, which seems odd to me since it's claim to fame was having a Russian bridge officer at the height of the cold war.

 

[Incredible Hans]

I made that list of Marvel's box office successes and failures (hope I made no mistake anywhere). Take a look at the ranking and tell me which spot IM3 will take...

1. The Avengers: $1,511,679,547
2. Spider-Man 3: $890,871,626
3. Spider-Man: $821,708,551
4. Spider-Man 2: $783,766,341
5. The Amazing Spider-Man: $752,216,557
6. Iron Man 2: $623,933,331
7. Iron Man: $585,174,222
8. X-Men - The Last Stand: $459,359,555
9. Thor: $449,326,618
10. X2: $407,711,549
11. X-Men Origins - Wolverine: $373,062,864
12. Captain America - The First Avenger: $368,608,363
13. X-Men First Class: $353,624,124
14. Fantastic Four: $330,579,719
15. X-Men: $296,339,527
16. Fantastic Four - Rise of the Silver Surfer: $289,047,763
17. The Incredible Hulk: $263,427,551
18. Hulk: $245,360,480
19. Daredevil: $179,179,718
20. Blade II: $155,010,032
21. Blade: $131,183,530
22. Blade III Trinity: $128,905,366
23. Elektra: $56,681,566
24. Punisher: $54,700,105
25. Howard the Duck: $37,962,774
26. Punisher War Zone: $10,100,036

Isn't it an interesting fact that Spider-Man 3 is the second most successful film based on a Marvel character?

Interesting to compare that list to a Rotten Tomatoes ranking:

1. Iron Man: 94%
2. Spider-Man 2: 93%
3. The Avengers: 92%
4. Spider-Man: 89%
5. X2: 88%
6. X-Men - First Class: 87%
7. X-Men: 82%
8. Captain America - The First Avenger: 79%
9. Thor: 77%
10. Iron Man 2: 75%
11. The Amazing Spider-Man: 73%
12. The Incredible Hulk: 67%
13. Spider-Man 3: 63%
14. Hulk: 62%
15. Blade II: 59%
16. X-Men - The Last Stand: 57%
17. Blade: 55%
18. Daredevil: 45%
19. TIE: X-Men Origins - Wolverine: 37% and Fantastic Four - Rise of the Silver Surfer: 37%
21. Punisher: 29%
22. Fantastic Four: 27%
23. TIE: Punisher War Zone: 26% and Blade III Trinity: 26%
25. Howard the Duck: 16%
26. Elektra: 10%

 

[Xeno]

I agree, that Star Trek has never been associated with the words "block buster", but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Star Trek may end up being the no. 2 film of the summer.

World wide there's no question that IM3 will mop up. Star Trek as you mentioned is not popular overseas, which seems odd to me since it's claim to fame was having a Russian bridge officer at the height of the cold war.

Star Trek's relative unpopularity overseas is surprising to me, too. I'm an old school Trekkie, so I know that back in the day Trek was a big phenomenon overseas. Just as in the States, the original series played for decades in syndication in foreign markets. The more recent series did, as well. It may just be too old to have much currency with the younger people who now make up the moviegoing audience.

Star Trek (2009) made a shockingly low $127M OS. It's probable that STD will do better, especially with the 3D boost, but it will still get crushed by other films.

 

[Incredible Hans]

Interesting to compare that list to a Rotten Tomatoes ranking:

1. Iron Man: 94%
2. Spider-Man 2: 93%
3. The Avengers: 92%
4. Spider-Man: 89%
5. X2: 88%
6. X-Men - First Class: 87%
7. X-Men: 82%
8. Captain America - The First Avenger: 79%
9. Thor: 77%
10. Iron Man 2: 75%
11. The Amazing Spider-Man: 73%
12. The Incredible Hulk: 67%
13. Spider-Man 3: 63%
14. Hulk: 62%
15. Blade II: 59%
16. X-Men - The Last Stand: 57%
17. Blade: 55%
18. Daredevil: 45%
19. TIE: X-Men Origins - Wolverine: 37% and Fantastic Four - Rise of the Silver Surfer: 37%
21. Punisher: 29%
22. Fantastic Four: 27%
23. TIE: Punisher War Zone: 26% and Blade III Trinity: 26%
25. Howard the Duck: 16%
26. Elektra: 10%

Oops. I forgot the Ghost Rider movies in both lists...

Ghost Rider $228,738,393, 27%
Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeange $132,563,930 , 17%http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Rider:_Spirit_of_Vengeance#cite_note-BoxOffice-4

 

[Tony Stark]

You have to realize with Spider-man is that he was widely recognized before the movies ever came out. Avengers thrived because of two things, 1.) Marvel successfully pitching the individual MCU films and the "shared universe" concept, and 2.) Robert Downey Jr. making the Iron Man films so successful.

The fact that Iron Man 1 was the second highest opening for a non sequel film at that time, only behind Spider-man 1, when he was not well known at all in the public perception.

But one can argue that Iron Man might now be Marvel's flagship with the success of the Iron Man movies. Certainly Iron Man has propelled himself pretty darn close to Spider-man, if he hasn't taken the spot outright, and that's strictly due to the success of the movies.

Immagine a world where Green Lantern made the kind of money the Iron Man films have made. That's how much Iron Man's stock has risen due to the films. And I'd say that Green Lantern had a bigger public awareness, due the old Filmation cartoons and the Hannah-Barbara Superfriends shows, back in the 60's and 70's.

 

[BigThor]

A lot based on the writers, director, and what we know of the film so far. I'm just talking about from my perspective. Chris Yost is one of my favorite writers right now and Alan Taylor is going to knock this kind of film out of the park. It's also quite clear that the film will take place almost entirely in the 9 realms instead of Earth which means there will be far more opportunities to explore the kind of high-fantasy that wasn't as prevalent in the first film. We're going to get a more personal look at Asgard, and we're getting actual 9 realm villains besides Loki.

That film, for me, will be better than what IM3 is cooking up...and like I said I think Iron Man will be a fantastic film itself, so it's not a knock on it. I'm just expecting this next Thor movie to be what I always wished Harry Potter and LotR were.

Yeah, plus I think they're going to give Thor more to do in the sequel. We also won't have to sit through him being depowered for half of the movie while being stuck on Earth. Everything I've seen and heard so far from TDW has got me more excited for it than IM3. Just a feeling I have.

Now I don't know about it wiping the floor with IM3, but I think it has a good chance of being the better cbm.

I feel the same way but I think has more to do with personal taste than which film is going to be "better".

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

I feel the same way but I think has more to do with personal taste than which film is going to be "better".

Definitely personal taste.

 

[BigThor]

Definitely personal taste.

Yep clearly, do I'm not too sure which film will have better critical reception although I'm leaning towards IM3.

Critics seem to generally rate realistic/grounded films higher than fictional type films.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I'm now convinced this movie is going to do $1.1b. This **** is wayyy bigger than the trailers are letting on.

I think Tony Stark said it in here, but this is going to be THE definitive Iron Man film...on so so so many levels.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

I'm now convinced this movie is going to do $1.1b. This **** is wayyy bigger than the trailers are letting on.

I think Tony Stark said it in here, but this is going to be THE definitive Iron Man film...on so so so many levels.

i voted for 1.1 billion :3

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think Iron Man will solidify it's place as being bigger than Spider-man at the box office with Iron Man 3.

I see it as:

1) Avengers
2) Batman
3) Iron Man
4) Spider-man
5) Superman (?)

6) Thor/X-men/Captain America
7) Fantastic Four (?)

 

[Mr. Dent]

Should be:

1. Avengers
2. Batman/Iron Man ($1b+)
3. Spider-Man ($700-900m)
4. Superman/Thor ($600-800m)
5. X-Men ($500-600m)
6. Captain America ($400-500m)

 

[BigThor]

I think Iron Man will solidify it's place as being bigger than Spider-man at the box office with Iron Man 3.

I see it as:

1) Avengers
2) Batman
3) Iron Man
4) Spider-man
5) Superman (?)

6) Thor/X-men/Captain America
7) Fantastic Four (?)

Even if Iron Man makes 1 billion + Spider-Man's original trilogy will still be ahead in it's collective gross.

I'm now convinced this movie is going to do $1.1b. This **** is wayyy bigger than the trailers are letting on.

I think Tony Stark said it in here, but this is going to be THE definitive Iron Man film...on so so so many levels.

Seems like you know alot of things that I want to know, PM me the skinny if you dnt mind.

Personally I don't give a **** about being spoiled.

 

[BigThor]

Double post

 

[Mr. Dent]

^ http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=25266511&postcount=676

I think the armor descriptions are legit but don't believe all the story details given in that thread. Just stick to the armor descriptions which I put in spoilers.

 

[Smashlilman]

^ http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=25266511&postcount=676

I think the armor descriptions are legit but don't believe all the story details given in that thread. Just stick to the armor descriptions which I put in spoilers.

I wonder if the [BLACKOUT]Particle Radiation Cannon Attachment that attaches to the Mk.XLII's chest[/BLACKOUT] will resemble the [BLACKOUT]Proton Cannon[/BLACKOUT] in the Marvel vs Capcom games.

 

[StarLord]

I think this will do around 600-700 million.

 

[Joss Whedon]

Low- 700 mil
High- 950 mil

 

[Hawkingbird]

I don't think it will quite reach 1billion, however I think it will be close.

 

[CastlesInTheAir]

I remember people highly underestimated the Avengers box office. Some people were thinking it would make even less than Iron Man 2 as far as I can remember lol

 

[BigThor]

I remember people highly underestimated the Avengers box office. Some people were thinking it would make even less than Iron Man 2 as far as I can remember lol

Yep and now imagine how they're feeling inside.

 

[Xeno]

I remember people highly underestimated the Avengers box office. Some people were thinking it would make even less than Iron Man 2 as far as I can remember lol

The Avengers box office thread and all of its parts are a fun read now that the $1.5 billion has been tallied. A whole lot of people haunted that thread for months spreading gloom and doom about TA's box office prospects. It's laughable now, but some folks really believed that Battleship and Dark Shadows would destroy The Avengers in the second and third weeks, limiting its domestic total. Even after the trailers for those turkeys landed with a thud there was no swaying the naysayers.


Although Iron Man 3 has stronger competition starting in its third weekend, I think that it will still be chugging along at a good pace through May. This is the sort of movie that does a lot of repeat business, not just from fanatics like me but from more casual fans as well. It's the repeaters who will drive up the numbers for IM3, while other movies might not get that boost.