Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Sharkboy]

I think you all are underestimating what Superman is going to do this summer. I say he's going to pull in 600 million WW, easy. Films are starting to get out of it's way because studios are anticipating it to be a big draw that weekend.
In order of top highest grossing movies this year:
Iron Man 3
Hunger Games 2
Man of Steel
Star Trek 2
Hangover 3
it's a rough estimation so I'm probably wrong, but I'm feel pretty confident about those first three at least.
That being said, do you all feel that IM3 will be able to outgross the Hunger games? Domestically it could prove to be a challenge but world wide I'd say it's got sturdier legs.

I think that order sounds about right except I'd definitely put Hobbit at number 1, definitely the only movie out this year that is almost certain to pull in a billion.

Side note: the fact that we had 3 films hit the billion mark last year (and two of them weren't even in 3D) really astounds me.

 

[thalidomide]

Why are we talking about other movie's B.O. prediction?

 

[JayJustROTFL]

Guess I've reached the age where Caine, Oldman and Freeman don't constitute as part of an all star cast anymore.

They are an all star cast and in my opinion the better actors. But all star cast means a high-profile/popular cast. not who is better.

I was just saying The Avengers had some of the "current popular" actors/actresses at the time.

-Robert Downey Jr
-Chris Hemsworth
-Scarlet Johanson
-Tom Hiddleston
-Samuel L Jackson
-Chris Evans

Combined already with The Marvel films behind it, The Avengers was a guaranteed hit. If any film was competition for TDKR, it was Avengers. It was mainly people on the internet hyping TDKR to be the greatest film of all time. Either way, I dont see The Avengers as the underdog.

 

[Mr.M]

I would say X-Men: DoFP has the best ensemble cast we have seen by far in a CBM. Not even close.

 

[antonydelfini]

The word of mouth on this movie is gonna be great. The applause at the end of this one was even greater than the one for the Avengers. It delivers big time on the plot, characters, and action.

 

[shuffleboard]

Iron Man 3 tracking for $160M US debut

Box-office tracking on “Iron Man 3’ is now on target for a whopping $160 million debut in the U.S. May 3 when it kicks off the summer movie season for Disney.

That the Marvel superhero movie would be a blockbuster and the year's biggest opener to date has been a given for months, but analysts' expectations for its domestic debut have spiked ahead of this week's international rollout. "Iron Man 3" opens in Australia, France, Italy and eight other countries on Wednesday and in roughly 25 more foreign markets over the weekend. It will debut in China on the same day it does in the U.S., Disney said Wednesday.

If it does hit the $160 million mark "Iron Man 3" will easily top another Disney film, "Oz the Great and Powerful," as 2013's biggest opener, and would be the best since "Dark Knight Rises" debuted to that same amount last July.

 

[Moridin]

$400m US/ $900-1b WW

I think you all are underestimating what Superman is going to do this summer. I say he's going to pull in 600 million WW, easy. Films are starting to get out of it's way because studios are anticipating it to be a big draw that weekend.
In order of top highest grossing movies this year:
Iron Man 3
Hunger Games 2
Man of Steel
Star Trek 2
Hangover 3
it's a rough estimation so I'm probably wrong, but I'm feel pretty confident about those first three at least.
That being said, do you all feel that IM3 will be able to outgross the Hunger games? Domestically it could prove to be a challenge but world wide I'd say it's got sturdier legs.

If we're talking WW then what I see as top 5:

IM3
The Hobbit: DoS
Despicable Me 2
Monsters Uni
Hunger Games 2

 

[Sharkboy]

They are an all star cast and in my opinion the better actors. But all star cast means a high-profile/popular cast. not who is better.

I was just saying The Avengers had some of the "current popular" actors/actresses at the time.

-Robert Downey Jr
-Chris Hemsworth
-Scarlet Johanson
-Tom Hiddleston
-Samuel L Jackson
-Chris Evans

Combined already with The Marvel films behind it, The Avengers was a guaranteed hit. If any film was competition for TDKR, it was Avengers. It was mainly people on the internet hyping TDKR to be the greatest film of all time. Either way, I dont see The Avengers as the underdog.

Honestly it's easy to forget this now since the avengers is the biggest movie in the history of everything, but outside of RDJ, ScarJo and Jackson. Most of these guys are unknown and Chris Evans while known...wasn't exactly a household name. So I wouldn't call it an all star cast, sure it seems that way now because they are all pretty much rockstars, but back then not so much.

As for TDKR, the projected quality and the hype up isn't exactly the point, the fact that it followed the then biggest superhero movie of all time was everything, it could have had the return of bat-nipples and the condiment king as the villain and it would be a sure thing to hit a billion. no matter how big it would have gotten it was definitely the box office underdog....and it won!

To put things in today's perspective...if star wars wasn't coming out in 2015 (and i still have doubts that it will) then no amount of hype or buzz is going to make anything not seem like the underdog to Avengers 2 come that year, thats the position TDKR was in 2012.

As for IM3 (to keep it on topic) yeah if the film is what some people are saying it is, I want this to hit a billion easy, there is no real reason for someone to want to watch the avengers and not want to watch iron man. Cap and thor i can kinda understand but this is the guy that started it all.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Don't want to talk about MoS in this thread, but a lot of you ARE disrespecting it. The amount of buzz and hype it's generating is huge, the excitement level for it is definitely about 8x higher than IM3 on this board at least. I think it will do $320m+ here easily.

 

[Tony Stark]

Don't want to talk about MoS in this thread, but a lot of you ARE disrespecting it. The amount of buzz and hype it's generating is huge, the excitement level for it is definitely about 8x higher than IM3 on this board at least. I think it will do $320m+ here easily.

What it is on SHH I have no idea, but SHH does tend to lean toward DC now a day, so you might be right, however in most of the news medias public polling MoS ranks maybe 4th or 5th on the list for summer movies. IM3 tops nearly every single list and Star Trek is generally higher.

That's not disrespecting MoS, that's just stating information that's readily available.

I think MoS looks good aside from a few minor gripes I have, and I hope it does well. I do think it has a horrible release date, and that's based on years of statistical data. Maybe it can overcome that, and if so, good for them.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I don't tend to pay too much attention to polsters and things like that, but MoS has way more trailer views than Into Darkness, I typically see much more discussion about it on message boards and social media, and it's just behind IM3 for most trailer views of the summer season.

As for this board, when the new MoS trailer came out it was the first time I saw one section alone have 900 views other than TDKR. IM3 never got that high.

 

[shuffleboard]

I don't tend to pay too much attention to polsters and things like that, but MoS has way more trailer views than Into Darkness, I typically see much more discussion about it on message boards and social media, and it's just behind IM3 for most trailer views of the summer season.

As for this board, when the new MoS trailer came out it was the first time I saw one section alone have 900 views other than TDKR. IM3 never got that high.

You really cannot use the SHH forums as a representative in gauging general reaction on how popular something is. This place is a very specific microcosm of the mainstream public, which is the one that drives the box-office.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I know, I was just saying how popular MoS is on this board.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Right, but as far as the general audience is concerned, most of the data tells us that MoS is not in the top 3 anticipation-wise. It is for me, but I'm a Supes fan since birth.

Oh, and I think 160 is extremely conservative for opening week. I think it will edge out TDKR WW at the end of the day.

 

[kedrell]

I'm going with a 175M OW on this one and $450M DOM as well as $650M OS for a $1.1B WW cume. Yeah, I think that'll do for my final guess. Now to sit back and see how it plays out.

 

[mclay18]

I don't know if Iron Man 3 can break the opening day record, but an estimated $175M opening weekend? Wow.

I'm actually surprised. I thought the ceiling would be $150M, adding in the Avengers boost.

 

[psylockolussus]

I would say X-Men: DoFP has the best ensemble cast we have seen by far in a CBM. Not even close.

I agee!

 

[Mr. Dent]

I don't know if Iron Man 3 can break the opening day record, but an estimated $175M opening weekend? Wow.

I'm actually surprised. I thought the ceiling would be $150M, adding in the Avengers boost.

Interesting, here's your original prediction:

I think IM3 can get around $150M OW DOM and cross $300M by the end of ST2's OW. Probably finish around $400-450M DOM(probably closer to the lower end of that scale). OS I can see $500M probably. It'll be close but I think $1B WW is achievable, however it'll be difficult.

I'd have to agree with your new one though. I didn't think it would get that high, but given how well it's being received this could really catch fire like Avengers did.

 

[Superhero 101]

I don't know if it can hit 170 million OW because of the AMC and Regal Entertainment quarrel. hopefully it is settled by then

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yeah I really hope that doesn't empede it's potential. I don't want another TDKR on out hands where we will always wonder what could have been...

 

[Xeno]

The newest tracking numbers for the domestic market have risen just as I expected that they would. Those polls usually err on the low side when it comes to the biggest blockbusters, so when they were predicting first $125M, then $151M OW for IM3 I was certain that they would prove wrong over time.


My prediction was for $180M OW and I'm holding with that. It's entirely possible for the movie to pull that much, given the positive buzz and the massive anticipation for it among the general public.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I don't think it can hit that. I mean, that would make it the second highest opening ever behind Avengers. That would be crazy. No one's even near predicting that right now.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

The newest tracking numbers for the domestic market have risen just as I expected that they would. Those polls usually err on the low side when it comes to the biggest blockbusters, so when they were predicting first $125M, then $151M OW for IM3 I was certain that they would prove wrong over time.


My prediction was for $180M OW and I'm holding with that. It's entirely possible for the movie to pull that much, given the positive buzz and the massive anticipation for it among the general public.

Only thing that could derail that is Marvel's ongoing negotiations with the 3 major theater chains breaking down and the movie not being shown opening week there.

 

[kedrell]

I'm 99.999999% sure all this theater chain drama will be settled before the film opens in 8 days.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Well, this film is making a killing here in the Philippines. Highest opening day ever surpassing Avengers and Spider-Man 3.