The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Blitzkrieg]

TLJ debuted with 230 million from Int'l markets. That's very good considering China isn't included here. China probably won't even make a big difference in the end but the global OW is phenomenal.

UK - 36.7M (TFA - 50.7 million)
Germany - 23.6M (27.2 million)
France - 18.1M (21.4 million)
Australia - 15.9M (20.6 million)
Japan - 14.4M (10.2 million)
Russia - 8.5M (12.4 million)
Spain - $8.3M (8.7 million)

 

[Mandon Knight]

Wow - major effort, well done world.....

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars8.htm

 

[redfirebird2008]

The Deadline estimate most likely does not account for the late west coast business. So I think the actual Saturday figure will be closer to (65-67) million mark provided earlier. The increase over true Friday will be 8% if TLJ does 65 million on Saturday. It's really close to TFA's 9% increase and Rogue One's 10% increase on Saturday from it's true Friday. However TLJ's Saturday drop is only 38% compared to TFA's 42.7%. While Rouge One still dropped only 35% but TLJ's achievements are only further highlighted by seeing the level at which it is operating. It truly is staggering.

Saturday ended up at $64m, right around 7% increase from true Friday. Disney projecting 20% Sunday drop and that seems pretty reasonable. I think this will have a run more similar to Rogue One than Force Awakens in terms of the daily drops.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

That UK drop from Force Awakens is bigger than I would have expected.

 

[AvengerPA]

The Last Jedi made more in one weekend than Justice League has made in its entire run. t:

 

[StormC]

They are projecting $220 million for the weekend. It will be interesting to see where the actuals fall tomorrow.

So far, this is the closest prediction I've got (as in, exactly). We'll see how actuals go tomorrow.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Well, fwiw I took my family to see it this morning, 9:50 am Sunday matinee. Good thing we got there early because it sold out. And there were ~40 people lined up already when we got out. So a good Sunday hold won’t surprise me at all.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That UK drop from Force Awakens is bigger than I would have expected.

Some of that will be the exchange rate. The Brexit vote didn’t do the pound any favors.

 

[Iceman]

Great figure both dom and overseas.

 

[spiderman2]

I really hate the fact that JW has the highest true single day record.

I was glad that JW while because the Jurassic movies are like my 3erd favorite movie franchise and I thought JW was easly the best JP sequel has it felt more like a sequel then any other one did and was just a good movie.

 

[spiderman2]

I think the actuals will be higher. This will be like IT and Ragnarok, where the figures for the OW keep on increasing.

That is also how TFA was the OW numbers keept going up and up from what was thought the movie would do.

 

[spiderman2]

Star Wars' appeal is very different from Transformer's appeal.

True I am just saying that it would be nice if Star wars could improve numbers in China because that is like the only place that does kind of so so numbers in and that was also the difference between TFA being 3erd or 2nd all time WW. If the movie had done a little better it would have been 2nd all time WW instead of 3erd.

 

[spiderman2]

That UK drop from Force Awakens is bigger than I would have expected.

The WW drop is bigger then I expected. I really thought this movie could do 2+ billion again but its not looking like it very strange and surprising. The other day I said that if the movie where to have a 20% drop OS and USA that the movie would make 1.8 billion that was a mistake typo on my part it would make 1.7 billion if that happened not 1.8 billion and the reason I said 20% is because if you go with that deadline boxoffice update from yesterday about its OW it also said how the movie will most likely end its run at 750 and that would be like a 20% over all drop from TFA for its USA amount.

 

[spiderman2]

Wow - major effort, well done world.....

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars8.htm

Didn't TFA make about 100 million more then that for its OW? I am thinking that TFA made like 550 but TLJ didn't open in China at the same time like TFA did and we also don't have finally weekend numbers yet just estimates. Are there any other places that TFA opended in besides China at the same time has the rest of the world that TLJ didn't? Ok never mind just checked and TFA made about 529 on its WW opening weekend so about 79million more then this but that also includes China where the movie made about 52 million on OW and where This movie it has not came out there yet. So you take that way and you are looking at 27 million less but again besides China I am not sure if there release schedule is any different.

 

[StormC]

Even if the dollar didn't get stronger between 2015 and now there's virtually no way it would match or exceed TFA's gross. SW trilogies always open strong.

 

[Stark Bauer]

True I am just saying that it would be nice if Star wars could improve numbers in China because that is like the only place that does kind of so so numbers in and that was also the difference between TFA being 3erd or 2nd all time WW. If the movie had done a little better it would have been 2nd all time WW instead of 3erd.

TLJ will make more in China than TFA.

1 there is a more Chinese representation in this movie

2 this is the most Anime-esque SW movie imho

3 globalization and China becoming more and more involved in Hollywood productions
as well as increasing in marketing and supporting the success of US movies into the future.

4 It is a superior movie than TFA story wise and higher quality - I wouldnt mind PAYING to watch TLJ multiple times - I only watched TFA once in theatres and havent rewatched it since.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Yeah, it will be interesting to compare with the US, especially in those areas of the world where Star Wars wasn't already a huge deal prior to TFA.



Infinity War is going to be fun to watch. The hype is real, but they will have to deliver something special in terms of the quality also.

As for Cameron's next movie, who knows? He has a unique track record, so it's anyone's guess as to what the Avatar sequel might do.

kinda OT, Cameron's movies always start small and slow but they dont decrease week to week, they only INCREASE. and STAY THERE for months. It will likely top a billion. Becoming the first dometic billion dollar movie (if the TLJ doesnt do it first)...worldwide over 3-4 billion easy.

 

[spiderman2]

TLJ will make more in China than TFA.

1 there is a more Chinese representation in this movie

2 this is the most Anime-esque SW movie imho

3 globalization and China becoming more and more involved in Hollywood productions
as well as increasing in marketing and supporting the success of US movies into the future.

4 It is a superior movie than TFA story wise and higher quality - I wouldnt mind PAYING to watch TLJ multiple times - I only watched TFA once in theatres and havent rewatched it since.

Not sure what you mean by 1 and 2 3 is true. 4 don't know if I can agree with that really half to see this movie again but right now I fell like TFA had better pacing and from what I have been hearing fans say I think people are liking TFA more then this movie and from what the rest of places are doing they are not making more then they where with TFA.

 

[spiderman2]

kinda OT, Cameron's movies always start small and slow but they dont decrease week to week, they only INCREASE. and STAY THERE for months. It will likely top a billion. Becoming the first dometic billion dollar movie (if the TLJ doesnt do it first)...worldwide over 3-4 billion easy.

I don't see avatar 2 doing even close to those kind of numbers the first one didn't even do a billion domesticly and I think a lot of people have like turned away form avatar a lot of it was its 3d being what it was. I see the sequel having a big drop off from the first avatar movie and this movie is not going to do a billion domesticly I though TLJ had a shoot but its OW is lower then I expected and it would need a multiple of 4+ to get to that kind of number.

 

[Mjölnir]

I think that TFA is quite clearly better than TLJ if you haven't seen ANH (which can be relevant for many Chinese viewers). TFA's biggest flaw is that so much is repetition from the first film, and not in a way that improves upon the original. In general I think the TFA script is tighter than that of TLJ.

 

[KangConquers]

This movie is likely to fall short of TFA, but still secure the #5 of all-time spot above The Avengers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Even if the dollar didn't get stronger between 2015 and now there's virtually no way it would match or exceed TFA's gross. SW trilogies always open strong.

spiderman2 doesn't seem to understand that TFA did once in a decade type business. It had build up like few films.

Also, I am going to make a prediction now. Infinity War will break TFA's opening weekend, but won't have quite enough legs to break the overall domestic record. Might beat it international though.

 

[Sithborg]

I really don't think it will. The problem with all the MCU movies, is that it sort of kills the "must see" hype of them. Especially with Civil War being Avengers 2.5.

 

[spiderman2]

spiderman2 doesn't seem to understand that TFA did once in a decade type business. It had build up like few films.

Also, I am going to make a prediction now. Infinity War will break TFA's opening weekend, but won't have quite enough legs to break the overall domestic record. Might beat it international though.

I understand that TFA was the first star wars movie in a long time but when you factor in the fact that it was coming after the prequles and when you factor in the fact that TLJ was coming after a movie that people liked unlike the prequles and with Fisher being gone there really is no good reason that this movie shouldn't be able to make the same if not more then TFA. TLJ coming after a good movie and Fisher being gone should be more then enough to cancle out TFA being the first star wars movie in a long time. About IF I don't know TFA brook the record by a pretty good amount and The 2nd avengers made less then the 1st one. Now IF should be big because of the build up to it over all of these years and its villain but I don't know if that is going to be enough to push it past TFA OW. I could see it doing like TLJ type of OW or something. With OW and records and such I wonder how long before we see a movie do 300 OW and how much longer before 200 becomes like the new 100 million. What I mean is 100 used to be a very big deal now not so much has multiple movies are doing 100 ever year. Now its like 150-180 is almost like how 100 million used to be.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I really don't think it will. The problem with all the MCU movies, is that it sort of kills the "must see" hype of them. Especially with Civil War being Avengers 2.5.

Infinity War is different. It has a special type of hype, with so much coming together.