The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[spiderman2]

The 20 million amount for Monday does sound kind of low. I know TFA did like crazy things but still it made like 11 million more then that on its 2nd Monday in comparison.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The 20 million amount for Monday does sound kind of low. I know TFA did like crazy things but still it made like 11 million more then that on its 2nd Monday in comparison.

Different Mondays. Schools are basically still in right now.

 

[spiderman2]

Different Mondays. Schools are basically still in right now.

Right I understand that I don't think we are really going to know this movies legs in till starting next Monday has schools will be out. Just seems crazy that it made more on its 2nd Monday then this on its first Monday but at the same time its making more then RO on its first Monday and that is with schools being in where with RO schools where out. So doing better then RO even with that disadvantage.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Making more on the second Monday is par for the course at this time of year when that second Monday is Christmas week, because everyone is off. See also Desolation of Smaug in 2013. It actually made more on its third Monday, too:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=hobbit2.htm

Rth puts Monday at 21.5. That’s fine.

 

[Webhead38]

That's a 58% drop. Matches Revenge of the Sith in percentage. As previously stated, the coming weekend will tell the story on where this film is headed. Tuesday should be a really good day with discounts. Assuming Disney is letting people have the discounts.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That's a 58% drop. Matches Revenge of the Sith in percentage. As previously stated, the coming weekend will tell the story on where this film is headed. Tuesday should be a really good day with discounts. Assuming Disney is letting people have the discounts.

Tuesday should be good, but I wouldn’t expect an increase. Big-bucks blockbusters often don’t get a bump the first week this time of year. Rogue One was basically flat versus Monday on its first Tuesday, and TFA actually declined 6.9%. Given that TLJ has the least favorable school calendar of the three, a drop bigger than TFA’s wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[Mjölnir]

It's a subcategory that deserves a distinction due to how rare it is for a direct sequel to make over 1.4 billion.

We can then ask ourselves why is it so rare.

I don't really agree, especially as it's so extremely rare for any sort of film to make over 1.4 billion (and it plays into how different the context has been for all films). 7 movies out of all films that's ever been made is a smaller fraction than 2 movies out of all direct sequels that's been made.

Getting too narrow with things just increases the risk of wrongful interpretation. An exaggerated example would be the fact that only a film with blue people in it has made over $2.5 billion dollars.

Not to mention the shaky definition that supposedly says that something like The Avengers isn't directly following up on where the story had left off.

 

[Sithborg]

That's a 58% drop. Matches Revenge of the Sith in percentage. As previously stated, the coming weekend will tell the story on where this film is headed. Tuesday should be a really good day with discounts. Assuming Disney is letting people have the discounts.

And even the weekend is going to be slightly off, with Christmas Eve on Sun.

 

[Reaver027]

If the drop is in the 40s everything will be perfect for this movie. An average drop around 50 - 55 would be normal. A drop in the 60s would be a bad sign.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And even the weekend is going to be slightly off, with Christmas Eve on Sun.

It’s definitely going to be interesting to watch. We haven’t had Christmas fall on a Monday since 2006. The impact of Sunday being Christmas Eve is clear. Both the big films opening in December 2006 dipped noticeably on Christmas weekend, but then made more in the next frame.

Night at the Museum opened Christmas weekend and did $34 million that weekend, and $36.7 million on New Year’s weekend.

The Pursuit of Happyness, like TLJ, opened the weekend before Christmas. It did $26.5 million opening weekend, dipped to $14.8 million Christmas weekend, then rebounded with $19.3 million in its third weekend. I’d expect TLJ to follow a similar pattern.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Gitesh:

58% domestic SUN-to-MON drop for #StarWarsTheLastJedi to $21.6M, cume $241.6M thru MON. #StarWars TFA was -34%, but more schools were closed then. #RogueOne was -53% last yr. $22.2M intl MON, $253M intl cume, global for #LastJedi at $494.6M crushing $500M today.

 

[The_Lost]

This movie does not deserve to do 2 billion. With the poor audience responses and hearing from friends who have seen it. (Most of my circle of friends liked and saw the force awakens 4 or more times each) Star wars is that beloved a franchise. This one.....just no. Money is not an issue here. My time spent at the theater is. This falls under wasted time. At my age; that is unacceptable. 1.5 billion may be reachable but I believe it is going to lose a lot from word of mouth and repeat viewings.

 

[Spider-Fan]

This movie is clearly more divisive than TFA, I acknowledge. That said, people using their friends as a barometer for millions of people just doesn't work. Some people have 100 friends, all loved it. Some have 100 friends, all hated it. Your personal circle of friends does not represents a greater percentage of the general audience, nor is an accurate measurement of these things.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

TLJ was never going to get anywhere close to $2 billion. As for bad word of mouth, there’s no evidence of it in the (admittedly limited) box office results so far.

As long as we’re doing anecdotal evidence, I loved it, my college age daughter loved it and my wife said she hadn’t been that riveted to her seat in years.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If this movie can not repeat #1 in week 2 would that say anything ?

The chance that happens is nil.

 

[Spider-Fan]

We will see with the drop offs

Two big releases this week that might provide better entertainment

First time for everything

This might be Star Wars's Batman v Superman

Even on a 60% drop, TLJ would make close to 90 mil. Jumanji is on track for like, $45 million. Even if that exceeds expectations, it would need to double that tracking expectation to beat TLJ. Won't happen.

 

[The_Lost]

This movie is clearly more divisive than TFA, I acknowledge. That said, people using their friends as a barometer for millions of people just doesn't work. Some people have 100 friends, all loved it. Some have 100 friends, all hated it. Your personal circle of friends does not represents a greater percentage of the general audience, nor is an accurate measurement of these things.

You are correct. I did not intend to state that my group is indicative of the whole but that our understanding of what each other likes or dislikes is a common denominator even when we do
not always agree on good or bad. We all had things we liked and disliked about this movie. It is the movie as a whole we will comment on when asked if it is worth going to see. It is this word of mouth over the next few weeks that will have an impact on the movies take good or bad.

 

[FunkMiller]

TLJ was never going to get anywhere close to $2 billion. As for bad word of mouth, there’s no evidence of it in the (admittedly limited) box office results so far.

As long as we’re doing anecdotal evidence, I loved it, my college age daughter loved it and my wife said she hadn’t been that riveted to her seat in years.

It appears casual moviegoers like this movie just fine, so I think it’ll be okay at the box office, even if a lot of hardcore fans have issues with it. There are many, many more of the former than the latter.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

We will see with the drop offs

Two big releases this week that might provide better entertainment

First time for everything

This might be Star Wars's Batman v Superman

Of all the films opening this weekend the projected best (per boxoffice.com) is the Pitch Perfect sequel at $34 million. TLJ is looking at around $90 million. So it seems...unlikely.

As for BvS, if it had that kind of WoM, we would have already seen it. BvS started collapsing on Saturday and fell off a cliff Sunday on its opening weekend. TLJ performed like a run of the mill blockbuster.

We’ll know more as the days pass.

 

[Reaver027]

Even on a 60% drop, TLJ would make close to 90 mil. Jumanji is on track for like, $45 million. Even if that exceeds expectations, it would need to double that tracking expectation to beat TLJ. Won't happen.

I agree. If that would happen Johnson would lose his trilogy. It will never happen tho. If this movie makes less than 1.5 billion i would be very surprised. Even with negative word of mouth it should reach that number.
The only area where i can see this movie fail is repeat viewing.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I agree. If that would happen Johnson would lose his trilogy. It will never happen tho. If this movie makes less than 1.5 billion i would be very surprised. Even with negative word of mouth it should reach that number.

Agreed, 1.5 billion sleepwalking.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It appears casual moviegoers like this movie just fine, so I think it’ll be okay at the box office, even if a lot of hardcore fans have issues with it. There are many, many more of the former than the latter.

Yeah, that’s my sense so far as well.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Agreed, 1.5 billion sleepwalking.

Seems like it, but I want to see more OS numbers, especially China.

 

[InCali]

TLJ was never going to get anywhere close to $2 billion. As for bad word of mouth, there’s no evidence of it in the (admittedly limited) box office results so far.

As long as we’re doing anecdotal evidence, I loved it, my college age daughter loved it and my wife said she hadn’t been that riveted to her seat in years.

My son and I liked it so therefore everybody else did.

The chance that happens is nil.

I think you're overstating the possibility of it finishing #2.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think you're overstating the possibility of it finishing #2.

I know but you always have to allow for quantum uncertainty... t: