Yeah, alot of times the actors who are cast , are on the shortlist. Occasionally you'll have an actor who isn't on the short list cast for a role, but alot of times the lists are pretty accurate.
Even when you look at alot of the out of left field choices who get the role, you'll find that they were on a shortlist, but discounted as possibilities by fandom and the press.
Heck, the final four for Bond back in 2004 were , Henry Cavill, Sam Worthington, Goren Vinsjic, and Daniel Craig. The director for Casino Royale wanted Cavill but the producers wanted Craig.