The Official Budget & Box Office Thread

[Llama_Shepherd]

Toy Story and possibly Transformers, in my opinion, would prove SPIDEY's point.

June is usually the month of kids films, ever since Finding Nemo, apart from Incredibles, every Pixar film has been released in the last week of May or June, and that trend will continue for their next 3 releases, setting Man of Steel up one week before Monster's University is due to come out could be as big a mistake as releasing Superman Returns one week before Pirates of the Caribbean.

Because along with the general diminished returns that are seen in June (see X-Men: First Class, Green Lantern, The A Team, and even the mighty Twilight Saga[Eclipse has the lowest returns since Twilight]), there is a dominance of kids films in that month, this year, Madagascar 3, Brave and GI Joe 2 are coming out.


Hopefully, though Man of Steel will do well enough that none of that matter, however, I don't see it making more than $375 million at the moment.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Hopefully, though Man of Steel will do well enough that none of that matter, however, I don't see it making more than $375 million at the moment.

Assuming you mean worldwide.

 

[Evil Twin]

Toy Story and possibly Transformers, in my opinion, would prove SPIDEY's point.

June is usually the month of kids films, ever since Finding Nemo, apart from Incredibles, every Pixar film has been released in the last week of May or June, and that trend will continue for their next 3 releases, setting Man of Steel up one week before Monster's University is due to come out could be as big a mistake as releasing Superman Returns one week before Pirates of the Caribbean.

Because along with the general diminished returns that are seen in June (see X-Men: First Class, Green Lantern, The A Team, and even the mighty Twilight Saga[Eclipse has the lowest returns since Twilight]), there is a dominance of kids films in that month, this year, Madagascar 3, Brave and GI Joe 2 are coming out.


Hopefully, though Man of Steel will do well enough that none of that matter, however, I don't see it making more than $375 million at the moment.

If Superman doesn't end up appealing to kids to some extent, it won't be doing its job. That's not saying that it needs to be simplistic, but an ideal Superman film appeals to those from 8 to 80. Just like Toy Story and even more than Transformers.

If MoS is seen as an event, as it should be, then it will do fine at the box office. If it's seen as just another superhero movie it will get swamped by the competition. As far as the examples of disappointing films go, the general concensus is that Green Lantern, The A Team, and Twilight aren't good films to begin with. I'd also argue that X-Men:First Class with obvious budget constraints, with good actors but no stars (at the time), without Wolverine (in advertisements), and coming off two critically disappointing X-Men films, did about as well as could be expected, June or not. Worldwide it did almost as well as Captain America.

 

[Lily Adler]

Would it fair better in the old Thor 2 spot that The Wolverine got?

 

[Micromind]

I find it odd that WB now would be happy with world wide collections near 400 mil. but they were not happy with SR's performance, will MOS make significant gains at Box Office ? In my opinion not much.


Superman Returns cost 210 mil. and earned 390 mil. worldwide, now even if Man of Steel is released in 3D, it will make about 400 mil. at best, it is not much improvement considering that it's budget will be near to 200 mil.

Is is ironic where one is a failure and the other making similar collections is considered as a success.

 

[Prime]

If the movie is great and gets good reviews and positive word of mouth, I expect to see it at 500-600 mil. range. It already has quite an interest generated and it's more than a year away and hasn't even began marketing, it has far more star power than SR, Nolan's name attached to the story and producer credit and it will probably have rather impressive trailers and (hopefully) proper marketing. I can't see it doing SR numbers if it delivers. Now if it's mediocre and has mixed reviews, well that's another story.

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

If Superman doesn't end up appealing to kids to some extent, it won't be doing its job. That's not saying that it needs to be simplistic, but an ideal Superman film appeals to those from 8 to 80. Just like Toy Story and even more than Transformers.

Man of Steel seems very much in the vein of the Batman series, yes they may appeal to kids, but they will not be aimed at them. The movie, considering the writing staff, producers and director, will be a very grounded and dare I say, more mature than Transformers.

If MoS is seen as an event, as it should be, then it will do fine at the box office. If it's seen as just another superhero movie it will get swamped by the competition.

Why should Man of Steel be seen as an event? It's not as if it is the first time the character has returned to the bigscreen since the eighties. Superman Returns tried to make an impact on being an event alone, and that failed. This is being made because it needs to be as good as Batman.

As far as the examples of disappointing films go, the general concensus is that Green Lantern, The A Team, and Twilight aren't good films to begin with.

Transformers was a poorly received film. Made $700 million.
Transformers 2 was even worse. Made $800 Million.
Transformers 3 was poorly received. Made $1 Billion.

The past three Pirates of the Caribbean have been negatively received, but they all made a billion, or thereabouts.

I'd also argue that X-Men:First Class with obvious budget constraints, with good actors but no stars (at the time), without Wolverine (in advertisements), and coming off two critically disappointing X-Men films, did about as well as could be expected, June or not. Worldwide it did almost as well as Captain America.

Saying you did as well as Captain America is not a good thing. It came out one week after the biggest film of that year and suffered badly for it.

 

[Prime]

Transformers was a poorly received film. Made $700 million.
Transformers 2 was even worse. Made $800 Million.
Transformers 3 was poorly received. Made $1 Billion.

The past three Pirates of the Caribbean have been negatively received, but they all made a billion, or thereabouts.

First Transformers was not that poorly received. Actually, it was rather OK received for what it was (especially by the kids, erm, public, it was VERY well received). But more importantly, cars and truck and the likes turning into giant robots kicking ass are ´´cool`` with the kids and teens, Superman (or GL) is not. And look Ma, all those big shiny explosions and jaw dropping CGI... As for POFC, well, among other things it has Johnny Depp erm, Jack Sparrow. People love him. They don't love Superman. For the likes of Superman or GL, reception and word of mouth is extremely important, in my opinion of course. At the end of the day I don't know jack **** 'bout nothing. t:

 

[Micromind]

None of the comic book based movies (except Iron Man) have been mega hits, I mean that no comic based movie has crossed 500 mil. (worldwide) mark.

Look at some of the "Highly Successful" MARVEL movies -


The Incredible Hulk - Worldwide: $263,427,551

Thor - Worldwide: $449,326,618

Captain America - Worldwide: $368,608,363

X-Men:FC - Worldwide: $353,624,124

Now DC movies -

Green Lantern - Worldwide: $219,851,172

I don't think that Man of Steel will cross 500 mil. worldwide, who knows at this point, but is is difficult.

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

Transformers was the best received of the films and that got a mixed review at best. Like you said, Pirates had Johnny Depp, a handsome, charismatic and well publicised man. Transformers had the bayhem.

Man of Steel has neither of those things, Henry, while handsome and charismatic, has not yet made a name for himself, and WETA have already told us that the CGI has taken a backseat to the story.

Word of Mouth is essentially what made the Pirates series a success, after the first many people went to see the second and because of that it destroyed Superman Returns, they are in a similar situation again.

But yeah, as of now, we can only speculate .

 

[Prime]

Do any of you feel that the market is getting a bit over crowded with comic book based movies? I mean, it's getting a bit too crowded having as much as 3-4 big comic book movies every year and most of them follow the same pattern the public is bound to get a bit bored of them sooner or later. I mean, is it possible that CBM's that aren't Batman or Spider Man might enter a bad era for BO success?

And how could all this affect MOS? Look at this year alone. A Spider-Man reboot that looks to have a more darker tone and the authorities after him. Just like in MOS (presumably) the military will go after Superman. Then The Avengers will have an alien invasion and a lot of (presumably) impressive VFX. The public might see MOS trailers and feel like they've seen it all before and feel that it's nothing special. Also IM3 before and Wolverine not long after the current MOS release date won't help either. Both are far more popular characters than Superman.

 

[Evil Twin]

Why should Man of Steel be seen as an event? It's not as if it is the first time the character has returned to the bigscreen since the eighties. Superman Returns tried to make an impact on being an event alone, and that failed. This is being made because it needs to be as good as Batman.

Man of Steel will be seen as an event if it garners reviews along the lines of "the best, most exciting Superman film in a generation" and delivers the expected spectacle. There's no reason that a Superman movie shouldn't have Transformers level special effects and spectacle. If it delivers a good compelling story to go along with that, there's no reason to believe that the opening date will have that much effect on the movie.

And, if it's appealing to kids and teens, it will rack up money on the weekdays when school's out.

Frankly, there's nothing magical about June except that it doesn't have a major holiday in it. Every week is competitive from mid-May until the end of July and it's starting to extend earlier. If Man of Steel isn't successful, it will have more to do with the movie and marketing than it will have to do with the opening date.

 

[Micromind]

No doubt that Pirates movie did damage to SR's collections, WB were mistaken in underestimating Depp and overestimating Superman.

Many GA were thinking -Jack Sparrow is so funny and that Pirate movie is great entertainment", even if the story itself did not go anywhere.

Similarly for Transformers movie "WOW the CGI effects are spectacular"

In case of Superman they thought "meh."

 

[Evil Twin]

Do any of you feel that the market is getting a bit over crowded with comic book based movies? I mean, it's getting a bit too crowded having as much as 3-4 big comic book movies every year and most of them follow the same pattern the public is bound to get a bit bored of them sooner or later. I mean, is it possible that CBM's that aren't Batman or Spider Man might enter a bad era for BO success?

And how could all this affect MOS? Look at this year alone. A Spider-Man reboot that looks to have a more darker tone and the authorities after him. Just like in MOS (presumably) the military will go after Superman. Then The Avengers will have an alien invasion and a lot of (presumably) impressive VFX. The public might see MOS trailers and feel like they've seen it all before and feel that it's nothing special. Also IM3 before and Wolverine not long after the current MOS release date won't help either. Both are far more popular characters than Superman.

Wolverine's a more popular character than Superman? X-Men Origins: Wolverine didn't even gross as much as Superman Returns.

I'm well aware that Superman has hurdles to overcome to relaunch a franchise. But, people are being more skeptical than reality calls for. A realistic budget, good marketing, and hopefully a good movie with spectacle can certainly put Superman back into a relevant franchise again even with box office not that much better than Superman Returns.

 

[Micromind]

Wolverine's a more popular character than Superman? X-Men Origins: Wolverine didn't even gross as much as Superman Returns.

I'm well aware that Superman has hurdles to overcome to relaunch a franchise. But, people are being more skeptical than reality calls for. A realistic budget, good marketing, and hopefully a good movie with spectacle can certainly put Superman back into a relevant franchise again even with box office not that much better than Superman Returns.

But, That's the point, WB wanted SR to make around 500 mil. anything less and WB deems it as "disappointment".

 

[BestGirl]

I find it odd that WB now would be happy with world wide collections near 400 mil. but they were not happy with SR's performance, will MOS make significant gains at Box Office ? In my opinion not much.


Superman Returns cost 210 mil. and earned 390 mil. worldwide, now even if Man of Steel is released in 3D, it will make about 400 mil. at best, it is not much improvement considering that it's budget will be near to 200 mil.

Is is ironic where one is a failure and the other making similar collections is considered as a success.

I think MOS will be considered a success, even with a disappointing BO, as long as it scores well with the public and positions the franchise neatly for a sequel, things that SR didn't do.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Toy Story and possibly Transformers, in my opinion, would prove SPIDEY's point.

June is usually the month of kids films, ever since Finding Nemo, apart from Incredibles, every Pixar film has been released in the last week of May or June, and that trend will continue for their next 3 releases, setting Man of Steel up one week before Monster's University is due to come out could be as big a mistake as releasing Superman Returns one week before Pirates of the Caribbean.

Because along with the general diminished returns that are seen in June (see X-Men: First Class, Green Lantern, The A Team, and even the mighty Twilight Saga[Eclipse has the lowest returns since Twilight]), there is a dominance of kids films in that month, this year, Madagascar 3, Brave and GI Joe 2 are coming out.


Hopefully, though Man of Steel will do well enough that none of that matter, however, I don't see it making more than $375 million at the moment.

Eclispe made 300.5mil domestically, it's the highest grossing Twilight movie domestically and it only made 16mil less than New Moon overseas. I mean it made way more than the first Twilight so that example is dubious at best.

I think MOS will be considered a success, even with a disappointing BO, as long as it scores well with the public and positions the franchise neatly for a sequel, things that SR didn't do.

I agree with you. The most important thing for this movie is to (along with making 375 to 450mil worldwide) is to have the movie well liked by most, certainly more well liked the SR, which split the audience.

Star Trek made 385mil worldwide (and it did a fantastic 257mil domestically which studios love) and the studio was dying to get a sequel made because the movie had excellent reviews, good word of mouth, good legs and did decently on DVD. They think that they can build the audience, particularly the international one and make even more money next time.

If Man of Steel gets Star Trek style reviews and word of mouth and makes a similar amount, the studio will be making a sequel.

 

[mclay18]

Would it fair better in the old Thor 2 spot that The Wolverine got?

Most likely yes. But... summer and November/December aren't the only ideal release dates. Early 2013, or even early August 2013 sounds better.

Even a release in a dead month like September or October 2013 would give MOS a good opportunity to clean up at the box office. Yes, there wouldn't be as much people seeing it during the week (due to school and/or work) -- but the weekends would hold better due to the weak competition.

 

[Prime]

Is there any date from January - June 2013 that would be better for MOS? Maybe they could move it to an earlier date. Or perhaps they are too confident in MOS's success. Though if that was the case they'd leave it in the December spot.

 

[mclay18]

Is there any date from January - June 2013 that would be better for MOS?

January through March 2013 right now is packed full with heavy-hitters (especially March). There's no film scheduled for April 5th or April 19th right now, and Oblivion has April 26th, which worked well with the last two F&F movies. I say MOS could be pushed up to mid-January 2013 or early April if it wants to avoid the big summer competition.

Of course, MOS could avoid 2013 altogether if it gets bumped up to December this year.

 

[Prime]

Of course, MOS could avoid 2013 altogether if it gets bumped up to December this year.

Yeah, but I myself already lost hope for that to happen. Wouldn't they announce such a thing by now? And since promoting these types of movies a year in advance seems to be the norm these days, I think it's pretty much not an option anymore. But I'd be happy with early April. t:

 

[Lily Adler]

How much do you guys expect MOS to make on opening weekend?

 

[manofsteel4life]

That question sometimes gets clouded with want instead of will......I'm thinking 50 to 60 mil

 

[Prime]

I'm hoping for 100 mil. I'm thinking 75 mil. I'm fearing 50 mil. I'm clueless at the moment, ask again in about 8 months time.

 

[mclay18]

How much do you guys expect MOS to make on opening weekend?

I would rather wait and do that when we get the first trailer. But if you want to start early, here's my early prediction. If they market it similarly to Batman Begins and build up the interest with Nolan and Snyder's names attached, it could go like this (this is adjusted for inflation and/or 3D surcharges):

Opening day gross: $22M-$27M
Opening weekend: $60M-$72M
Domestic tally: $250M-$265M
International gross: $500M-600M

Now, I'm being conservative with this. This is assuming that MOS starts off the gate on a decent note and holds well throughout the next several weeks like BB did. But BB had a weak summer lineup, while MOS doesn't at the moment. If the marketing is really good and gets people in to see it, then it's going to make more.