May Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'X-Men 1, 2 & 3' started by narrows101, May 5, 2006.

  1. narrows101 Guest

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    http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9542

    1) X-Men: The Last Stand

    One of the most popular and lucrative movie franchises in recent years (after perhaps just Star Wars, Spider-Man, and Harry Potter) returns for a third outing. Wolverine (Hugh Jackman), Rogue (Anna Paquin), Professor X (Patrick Stewart) and most of the gang (plus a couple new faces including Kelsey Grammer as Beast) are back to face off against Magneto (Ian McKellan). The X-Men have a very large following of comic book fans, plus a sizeable number of people who were simply turned on by the first two films from Bryan Singer. Singer is gone though, moving on to Superman Returns, and replaced by Brett Ratner (Rush Hour 2, Red Dragon).

    How will Singer's departure affect ticket sales? My hunch is not very much, though it could hurt a little bit if people perceive that the quality of the movie will slip. This is the third movie in the series, a point at which many action franchises begin to lose their luster. Think: Superman 3, Batman Forever, Die Hard With a Vengeance, etc. Don't get me wrong: this will make a ton of money. But I wouldn't be surprised if it struggles to pass $200 million total.

    One thing is for certain, though: with so many key films opening in May this year, the Memorial Day weekend is bound to be one of the biggest weekends in box office history. The megaxplexes will be very crowded for sure. But if you head there in hopes of catching a more adult, arty picture, you're probably going to be out of luck this time of year.

    Opening weekend prediction: $80 million + $19 million Monday.

    2) The Da Vinci Code

    One of the biggest selling books in recent memory makes its way to the big screen this month in The Da Vinci Code starring Tom Hanks and Audrey Tautou. Author Dan Brown's book has been trashed by many literary critics, but embraced by mass audiences to the tune of 40 million books sold worldwide (and more than 12 million in the U.S.). It is no stranger to controversy either, as plenty of Catholics have condemned the fictionally religious elements. Directed by Oscar-winner Ron Howard, who is no doubt hoping that the controversy will only serve to increase awareness and interest in the blockbuster. Could be a fun battle with X-Men to see which one ends up on top for the May releases, and both will also be high on the leaderboard out of all 2006 releases.

    Opening weekend: $66 million.

    3) Mission: Impossible III

    was a success last year, though perhaps not as much as one might have expected. This time he'll have some help from first-time film director J.J. Abrams, of TV series Alias and Lost. Abrams, of course, is no stranger to the spy world given his experiences on cult-fave Alias. Cruise is again joined by Crazy Tom Cruise is back as superspy Ethan Hunt in the third installment of the Mission: Impossible franchise. It has been a very up and down year for one of the world's most bankable movie stars. After his escapades last Summer with Oprah and Matt Lauer, and his further adventures into nuttiness throughout the year, he and Katie Holmes finally had their baby recently. His blockbuster duo with Steven Spielberg on War of the WorldsVing Rhames, as well as recent Oscar winner Philip Seymour Hoffman.

    It seems like every Summer is the "Summer of Sequels and Remakes" anymore, doesn't it? In any case, the Summer movie season unofficially opens the first weekend in May with MI:III. No doubt that many studio executives (not just at Paramount) will be keeping a close eye on theater attendance, considering the gloomy results from much of 2005.

    The first Mission Impossible opened to about $45 million ten years ago, before coasting to almost $200 in the States alone. The sequel improved on those figures six years ago with a $58 million opening bow, before settling in at $215 million total. I expect a slight increase from that, though not by too much. Yes, higher average ticket prices need to be factored in. But also consider that the second MI was a letdown for many fans, and oftentimes interest in a series begins to wane after the third film (as mentioned with X-Men). Plus, Cruise perhaps isn't as big as he once was. Still, it'll make quite a bit of money.

    Opening weekend: $59 million.

    4) Poseidon

    Poseidon is a remake of the 1972 disaster film The Poseidon Adventure. The latter arrived during the wave of disaster flicks and was very popular (earning about $85 million domestically) and even scored a number of award nominations. This one has a very strong trailer and is likely to please a whole new generation of filmgoers, plus older folks who enjoyed the first one. It helps that director Wolfgang Petersen has plenty of experience with this type of film, as he previously directed The Perfect Storm, plus Outbreak and Air Force One. (We'll just forget about his last film, Troy, which was a dud.) This could be one of the biggest hits of the Summer.

    Opening weekend: $52 million.

    5) Over the Hedge

    From the creators of Shrek! For better or worse, all you need to do to market a movie successfully is to make that phrase the focus of your campaign and it's probably worth a minimum of $20 million on top of what you would have had. But with the recent failure of The Wild, it's clear that CGI animated movies are not sure bets to make a mint. Though with incredible successes like Ice Age: The Meltdown still luring plenty of families to the theater, there is certainly still demand for them. And the voice cast including Bruce Willis, Garry Shandling, and Steve Carell can only help.

    Opening weekend: $46 million.

    6) Just My Luck

    The charming American princess and high-class debutante, Lindsay Lohan, stars as one of the luckiest women in the world in Just My Luck. Her luck takes a turn for the worse though, when she meets an unlucky man and their fortunes soon switch. Directed by Donald Petrie, who managed to score moderate hits with How to Lose in Guy in Ten Days iand Miss Congeniality.

    Opening weekend: $11 million.

    7) See No Evil

    WWE wrestling superstar Kane (a.k.a. Glen Jacobs) makes his movie debut in See No Evil. From director Gregory Dark - who previously led such films as Sex Freaks and New Wave Hookers 2, 3, and 4 - See No Evil is about a big, vicious criminal hiding out at a seedy hotel. A group of juvenile delinquents go to the hotel to clean it, along with the cop who once shot the criminal. Mayhem and violence soon break out in this horror film.

    If this were to be released during any time of year other than the Summer movie season, I'd have no trouble believing that it could make the customary $20 million for the horror genre. Especially with a popular wrestler like Kane in the cast. But it's up going up against some pretty big films, so will likely get lost in the crowd. I expect a very short window between the theatrical and DVD releases.

    Opening weekend: $10 million.

    8) Hoot

    Hoot is an adaptation of author Carl Hiaasen's book about a young kid in Florida who puts up a fight when he learns that a construction site is endangering a wild owl population. Hiaasen's books, including Tourist Season and Striptease (which got turned into the Demi Moore abomination) are always a lot of fun, but this is the first that focuses on a kid as the main character. It doesn't have a lot of hope going up against Mission Impossible, but should be good for a little business with families looking for some PG-fun.

    Opening weekend: $7 million.

    9) An American Haunting

    The premise of An American Haunting is pretty intriguing: it tells the tale of the only documented case in American history of a spirit causing a man's death. Will it be intriguing enough, though? Veteran actors Donald Sutherland and Sissy Spacek star in the creepy ghost story. They are two fine actors, for sure, but neither are exactly draws for the teenage and young adult crowd that is so crucial. And among more adult thrillers, this isn't Nicole Kidman (in The Others), or Naomi Watts (in The Ring). And it isn't riding a great marketing campaign, with help from a 30-year-old classic (The Exorcism of Emily Rose). If the reviews are positive, it could have enough juice to stay in theaters for a bit, but it's more likely to get tripped up and kicked out. For better or worse, assuming anyone is even aware of the movie, most people will see this as having "wait for DVD" written all over it.

    Opening weekend: $6 million.
     
  2. Compi716 The SHH! Jew

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    Those TV spots are sure doing something.
     
  3. WorthyStevens Green Man

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    I think X3 will make more than $80 million OW.
     
  4. narrows101 Guest

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    That's just the Friday-Sunday number.
     
  5. WorthyStevens Green Man

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    That's what I'm referring to. I think it'll make more than $80 million over it's first 3 days.
     
  6. Karea07 Registered

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    ^ I hope so :up:
     
  7. narrows101 Guest

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    This site also rates the top 25 of the summer with all the reasons why, and they have X-Men as # 1, POTC at # 2, DaVinci # 3, Cars # 4, Scanner Darkly # 5, Superman # 6, Snakes # 7, MI3 # 8, Clerks II # 9, and Poseidon # 10.

    1-5: http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9541
    6-15: http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9540
    16-25: http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9540

    1) X-Men: The Last Stand

    Yes, BOP knows what you are thinking. Brett Ratner has as much business directing a comic book adaptation of the Ultimate/Uncanny/Astonishing X-Men as Paris Hilton has running abstinence seminars. In addition, Ratner is not doing his cause any favors by acting so celebratory about the idea of introducing a "mutant hooker" character. Such decision making reinforces every natural prejudice diehard comic book fanboys are inclined to have about Ratner. And they were already heartbroken over the decision by Bryan Singer to focus upon Superman Returns at the expense of the third project in the X-Men franchise.

    What is our site's response to such concerns? STOP BEING SO PESSIMISTIC!!!

    Ratner is not in any danger of coming up with an "I'd like to thank the Academy" speech, but he's an entertaining director. The Rush Hour series, Red Dragon, the underrated After the Sunset and even Money Talks all offer their fair share of enjoyable fluff. With X-Men, his assignment is much more simplistic: "Just don't sabotage the franchise". Since he has managed not to do that with both Rush Hour and Hannibal Lecter, there is no reason to believe anything would be different with the mutie scum.

    The main reason BOP considers X-Men: The Last Stand to be the most exciting title on the summer schedule is its story line. The seeds were planted at the end of X2: X-Men United when Jean Grey dramatically her friends from a seemingly impossible predicament through an act of supreme self-sacrifice. Long time fans of the comic book series know what comes next. The character formerly designated as Phoenix rises from the ashes of her predicament, in the process evolving into a power being known as Dark Phoenix. The title says it all about her moral compass.

    Grey's alteration is not the only change her friends face, though. Another famous story arc is also added into the mix. Scientists have discovered a "cure" for the mutant gene, meaning that those affected could be treated. Mutants could live ordinary lives. This news creates a stir within both Professor X's and Magneto's disciples. Civil war amongst mutant-kind appears inevitable.

    Talk about your loaded deck. X-Men: The Last Stand ties together three films and two legendary comic book story arcs. As great as the second film in the franchise was, this production is poised to exceed it in terms of scope as well as quality. As much as the staff loves Johnny Depp, we have decided by a narrow margin that the comic adaptation deserves to be the Most Anticipated Film of Summer 2006. (David Mumpower/BOP)
     
  8. narrows101 Guest

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    There are four contributors to this site that give their estimates. The above is one of them. Read the others here with their predictions and how much money they will make.

    http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9548
    http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9549
    http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9545
     
  9. Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    No.1 - Sounds optimistic but :up: . I hope they are right.
     
  10. rashad Hype Board Junkie

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    Yeah I think X3 will have a great opening weekend.
     
  11. Lightning Strykez! Former Mod On Pension Pay

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    Sounds good.

    HA! The X-Men will stand alone--literally at the Box office that weekend.
     
  12. lordofthenerds Not a Goddamn Side-Kick

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    Wow, that site is really optimistic. Its AICN's oppostie. :up:
     
  13. Fifty Euros Registered

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    That's good. :up: I hope it turns out to be true.
     
  14. Cyan Registered

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    Wow! Not here to put fire i nthe hole, but SR in #6?!?! What a shock!
    Betting in X3 once more^^
     
  15. lordofthenerds Not a Goddamn Side-Kick

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    My confiedence in their optimism sunk a liitle bit after I read this. :(

     
  16. Fifty Euros Registered

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    I'd put Superman at #3 or #2, not 6. For as much as I don't like it, it's a long waited Superman movie.
     
  17. GNR Registered

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    I think SR will rank a bit higher than #5.

    Personally,the movie is starting to look campy based on the last trailer.Camp is alright if it's Fantastic Four(which is by all means necessary,the F4 were always campy),but the first teaser really gave a serious tone to the film.Now after seeing that stupid scene with Spacey acting like a goof,I'm not so sure what to expect.
     
  18. Spidey 2007 Renegade

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    sounds about right for x3, even topugh i dont expect MORE then 80 mil opening weekend
     
  19. Downhere Jeremiah 33:3

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    I expect a bit more for it's 3 day opening weekend. I think it will match X2 and make 85 mil during the 3 day.
     
  20. narrows101 Guest

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    I think it will make more than $85M in it's three-day since that's what X-2 did. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes over $100M for the four-day holiday weekend.
     
  21. narrows101 Guest

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    http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/archives/2006/05/i_went_to_see_m_1.php

     
  22. Downhere Jeremiah 33:3

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    I think it will go over X2 as well, but 85 million for it's first three days is a conservative estimate. My gut tells me 100 million 3 day considering Sunday acts like another Saturday. The only thing I don't like about the Memorial day weekend is that the following weekend will see a drop harder than usual.
     
  23. narrows101 Guest

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    I agree re $100M for three days, BUT - I follow these things and Sunday is usually the lowest day of the three. Saturday is usually the highest. But then again, it is a holiday weekend so that may be different. As an example, "RV" last weekend did $4.6M on Friday, $7.3M on Saturday, and $4.4M on Sunday.
     
  24. Downhere Jeremiah 33:3

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    Since mostly everyone has the day off that monday, Sunday is going to act like another Saturday which will mean a higher Sunday total than normal. It's going to inflate the opening weekend. With that said, it means that the next weekend is going to have a larger drop than usual.
     
  25. narrows101 Guest

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    Good point about Sunday and the holiday weekend - didn't factor that in.
     

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