I won't make such a far ranged prediction. I feel come July 2012, the mood of the country will determine if he gets reelected or not. But what he has more than almost any major national politician (at least the ones who are in Congress and running for president in 2012) is an ability to seem like an adult with common sense concerns. And what he truly does have over almost any politician is a historical long view. That is why he could be unphased by the damage he sustained in the HC fight and losing the 2010 midterm by historic proportions and still get about 3/4 of his agenda done before the GOP gridlock that kicked in this month. And why in times of true tragedy he was able to rise above the pettiness of politics.
Combine with none of the GOP frontrunners being without serious vulnerabilities--Romney the flipflopper/Romneycare, Barbour the Southerner who dismisses racism and segregation, Huckabee the nut who has said some bad things about women and the role of religion in government and Palin the....Palin--Obama has a strong chance for reelection.
However, if unemployment stays above 8.5% or (gulp) 9.0%, I could see him still losing in the end. So, it is really just too soon to tell.
P.S. If he does win the GOP field for 2016 will be far more competitive than it looks for next year.