Age of Extinction Transformers 4 is going to be AWESOME. - Part 2

[Dr Lee]

Well put Roach

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Agreed Roach, when something from Marvel or WB makes a billion, its audiences liking smart movies, when a Bay movie does it, the GA are dumbasses again, its silly really.

 

[DA_Champion]

How do you guys figure that exactly. That it will out do all the other films that opened in the 90's but fell well short of the land mark? Better made films in various cases. I suppose like cap it might have the benefit of months of lax competition but still. Still, only took cap so far. A billion really? I'm curious myself if it will be the highest grossing cbm this year.

Besides, can a movie with sexualized/innuendous and offensive humor and nonsensical plots really strive? I was told otherwise for weeks in these threads. However I suppose if anything the TF films argue anything can happen with this sort of General Audience. It's a measure of entertainment vs that of technical film making as per the on again off again 'rules'.

The public response to GoTG has not been a vibrant as I expected so I guess I was wrong about the billion.

 

[The Endless]

I don't know where you're getting that from. It's on course to be the highest grossing film in the US this year. It's at 150 million US already. Probably end up around 270-280. And it hasn't been released in China and a few other markets yet.

 

[DA_Champion]

I don't know where you're getting that from. It's on course to be the highest grossing film in the US this year. It's at 150 million US already. Probably end up around 270-280. And it hasn't been released in China and a few other markets yet.

It's not on track for a billion though.

It's made 147 million in the USA after 8 days. If we approximate that as 7 days (which is generous) and assume 50% weekly drops (generous again), its final US gross will be 294 million. If we then assume it makes 66.67% of its gross overseas like other Marvel movies did even though this one is currently at 38.7%, it will end up with a final global gross of 882 million.

That's a very good number, but I had to make three generous assumptions:
- 8 days -> 7 days ;
- 50% weekly drops ;
- Foreign gross rising to 67% ;

Note that if I instead assume a more plausible 60% weekly drops, and the foreign gross coming in at 50%, the predicted final BO becomes 490 million, a less impressive sum than 882 million.

 

[The Endless]

Why would anyone expect it to hit a billion though? I think anything above 600 million would be an amazing success.

 

[DA_Champion]

Why would anyone expect it to hit a billion though? I think anything above 600 million would be an amazing success.

I over-estimated the hype and excitement.

 

[The Endless]

Fair enough. But honestly, even a couple weeks before it came out most people were predicting around Thor 1 numbers.

 

[DA_Champion]

I have a bet with someone on another forum that if it breaks 500 million he needs to sport a Zack Snyder avatar for a month, and if it goes under I have to sport an RDJ avatar for a month.

 

[roach]

Agreed Roach, when something from Marvel or WB makes a billion, its audiences liking smart movies, when a Bay movie does it, the GA are dumbasses again, its silly really.

I got into this very same discussion with a friend of mine over this movie...Avengers hits a billion and it's cause people love the film....Transformers hits a billion and it's because people were tricked into seeing the movie and people hate it and....when a movie hits a billion that means people are seeing it again and again.

 

[DA_Champion]

I got into this very same discussion with a friend of mine over this movie...Avengers hits a billion and it's cause people love the film....Transformers hits a billion and it's because people were tricked into seeing the movie and people hate it and....when a movie hits a billion that means people are seeing it again and again.

I'd have more respect for the snobs if they didn't point to the Marvel films as the shining example of cinematic perfection.

I'm all for snobbery, but then back up your arrogance with genuine elite-dom.

 

[terry78]

Basically you can't have it both ways. I've seen comments before where a movie that's "well done" makes bank and people are like, "of course it's a great flick, the public knows what it wants" and then the next week another less liked flick does well and suddenly it's all "this is why America is failing."

I won't front, I saw Boyhood last weekend and next weekend I'm probably gonna see Let's Be Cops, so you can't really gauge.

 

[def28]

Edit

 

[Lord]

I'd have more respect for the snobs if they didn't point to the Marvel films as the shining example of cinematic perfection.

I'm all for snobbery, but then back up your arrogance with genuine elite-dom.

I don't see anyone pointing at Marvel films as examples of cinematic perfection, but the people behind those films do seem to be more interested in making the best films with the material they have while still remaining as close as possible to the source material. Transformers on the other hand has all the same problems Bay films have, being offensive and giving some weird dialogue.

Also, you can have main characters that aren't goody good, Rambo and many other heroes from the 80s proved that you could have incredibly violent heroes, the problem is that the way this is handled in the Transformers movies is just weird and makes Optimus Prime look like a psyco, it's little things like screaming "i'm gonna kill ya!" in every confrontation, ripping faces off while begging for mercy the next minute, or killing aliens for "being ugly" what makes the characters come across this way.

Either way, i find the idea that "the general public knows it's bad but likes it", many don't like to admit it, but a lot of people love these movies, they don't have as much fan following in part of the "geek crowd", but the GA does seem to like it, even now that the Domestic numbers are getting weaker, the gross in China is shooting up.

Never confuse the reaction of the internet with that of the general public, the latest James Cameron movies are a pretty good example, some like to consider that he hasn't made a good movie in years, yet Titanic and Avatar are some of the most loved films by the GA and were very well regarded by the public.

 

[The Endless]

I'd have more respect for the snobs if they didn't point to the Marvel films as the shining example of cinematic perfection.

I'm all for snobbery, but then back up your arrogance with genuine elite-dom.

No one thinks Marvels films are cinematic perfection. But it's like this...

Baby Groot dancing to the Jackson 5 and Steve Rogers giving an inspiring speech is a microcosm of Marvels films.

Hound shooting a vagina alien because it's ugly and Optimus granting freedom to the Dinobots then practically enslaving them to his will is a microcosm of Bay's films.

 

[Marvin]

No one thinks Marvels films are cinematic perfection. But it's like this...

Baby Groot dancing to the Jackson 5 and Steve Rogers giving an inspiring speech is a microcosm of Marvels films.

Hound shooting a vagina alien because it's ugly and Optimus granting freedom to the Dinobots then practically enslaving them to his will is a microcosm of Bay's films.

And therein lies the problem. You are literally telling us what you see when looking at each film in 'microcosm' summery. It's no wonder you spend the time you do putting one down whilst lifting the other. You only see the good in one and the bad in the other rather. Optimus has kinda given "inspirational speeches" at the end of all the films(for example) but that's not what he's about apparently, it doesn't fit into your evidence bubble of what he is. Like saying Cap is just some gov't stooge though that's not all he is. Evidence bubble. Likethe giant tree smiling emphatically after slaughtering a room of people....but it's all about baby jackson 5 and all that.
We see what we want, some of us anyways. Luckily the GA goes about this differently.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I got into this very same discussion with a friend of mine over this movie...Avengers hits a billion and it's cause people love the film....Transformers hits a billion and it's because people were tricked into seeing the movie and people hate it and....when a movie hits a billion that means people are seeing it again and again.

Agreed, its silly, no movie hits a billion without people going multipe times, and they only go more than once because they LIKE the movie.

And therein lies the problem. You are literally telling us what you see when looking at each film in 'microcosm' summery. It's no wonder you spend the time you do putting one down whilst lifting the other. You only see the good in one and the bad in the other rather. Optimus has kinda given "inspirational speeches" at the end of all the films(for example) but that's not what he's about apparently, it doesn't fit into your evidence bubble of what he is. Like saying Cap is just some gov't stooge though that's not all he is. Evidence bubble. Likethe giant tree smiling emphatically after slaughtering a room of people....but it's all about baby jackson 5 and all that.
We see what we want, some of us anyways. Luckily the GA goes about this differently.

Sensible stuff, I agree with this.

 

[The Endless]

Cap never contradicts his inspiring speeches like Optimus though. "Every sentient being is allowed the right to freedom!" He can say that all he wants, his actions suggest otherwise. It's just lip service at the end of the day. Cap's actions suggest he actually means what he says. He never contradicts his ideals.

As for Groot? He kills bunch of alien murderers in a combat situation. He doesn't execute fallen and unarmed foes begging for mercy. He doesn't enslave a whole race of beings to do his bidding for him.

If Marvels films were universally panned then it wouldn't surprise me if you was apologizing for them.

The thing is, it's ok to like bad movies. Just admit they're bad. I bet 99% of the general audiences who go to these Transformers films know they are garbage with pretty visuals. But they don't give a ****. I can respect that. Hell i bet Michael Bay knows these films are garbage when it comes to plot and characterization. He knows exactly what he's doing and he doesn't care. Good for him.

But then you have people like you suggesting that in terms of story and characterization, these films are unfairly judged compared to other summer movies? hahahaha do me a favour. The differences between these films and Marvels films or original summer movies like Edge of Tomorrow are clear as day.

 

[Marvin]

I don't see anyone pointing at Marvel films as examples of cinematic perfection, but the people behind those films do seem to be more interested in making the best films with the material they have while still remaining as close as possible to the source material. Transformers on the other hand has all the same problems Bay films have, being offensive and giving some weird dialogue.

Also, you can have main characters that aren't goody good, Rambo and many other heroes from the 80s proved that you could have incredibly violent heroes, the problem is that the way this is handled in the Transformers movies is just weird and makes Optimus Prime look like a psyco, it's little things like screaming "i'm gonna kill ya!" in every confrontation, ripping faces off while begging for mercy the next minute, or killing aliens for "being ugly" what makes the characters come across this way.

Either way, i find the idea that "the general public knows it's bad but likes it", many don't like to admit it, but a lot of people love these movies, they don't have as much fan following in part of the "geek crowd", but the GA does seem to like it, even now that the Domestic numbers are getting weaker, the gross in China is shooting up.

Never confuse the reaction of the internet with that of the general public, the latest James Cameron movies are a pretty good example, some like to consider that he hasn't made a good movie in years, yet Titanic and Avatar are some of the most loved films by the GA and were very well regarded by the public.

The producers are only interested in producing the best TF films given the material. They have said as much. If you want to deconstruct their actual 'intent' you'll need more than just conjecture based on your personal experience with the films and the thoughts of detractors. You'd no doubt also need something to argue against the mass success these producers find in their approach. Again, best film experience possible with the material and they've seemingly found that happy medium. The extreme approach would literally be adapting Shakespeare in with TF lore and arriving at 'the best film' possible if you will. But what would this GA think and how much success would be had vs the current situation.
As for people admitting they like something, I don't blame people for not wanting to out themselves against the giant culture that has been motivated to hate this sort of cinema. It takes guts for people to go on the net or even in a classroom and tell people how they actually feel vs fitting in. That's not to say no one hates this stuff, but rather that this situation actually exists. It comes with a ton of disclaimers to say the least. Genuinely liking these films comes with a stigma which is fascinating considering just how many people actually do and have always liked them(vs Batman&Robin for example). All the punditry and youtube reviews and all that. There was a video on world star hip hop about "Bay's Bevis and Butthead" propagating this very thing. The comments were very interesting considering just what kinda crowd frequents that site. I digress

Knowing a movie is 'bad' but still liking it pretty much applies to any R comedy(as I've always said). The actual measure is that of understanding the intent and gauging that against your own enjoyment and experience watching the film. A movie that's 80% seth rogan jokes isn't a 'good' movie by one measure but it's a great time but another. And that's what audiences are infact endorsing with these films. Bay's intent on producing a good time by way of cinema/action/comedy etc. All for these people to then be shunned for not appreciating what it is they are supposed to appreciate.

Lastly, anyone that doesn't have a preconception as to what Optimus Prime is 'supposed to be', may not arrive at the same conclusion as you as to how psychotic he is. As of today, he's half as bad as even Hugh Jackman in wolverine movies and let's not look at real psychos like Deadpool.
Maybe in the next movie when Prime smiles like a psycho whilst covered in blood or quips like an 80's action star post violent killing...till then, the hyperbole isn't convincing me. If Maximus can kill Commodus for all that he has done both to the empire and his own person whilst Commodus begs for mercy and not be called a 'psycho'...and so forth.

As for domestic declines, it happens. Not just after 3 films but recastings and rebootings as well. The question is how bad is the actual number it lands upon. I hear tell plenty of films are being sold as resounding hits for similar. Unlike say ASM2. How bad is the number itself...
If they made a Bale free batman movie right now, would it's domestic number not stand a chance at declining from both prior to installments for the very reasons stated above(part 4/soft reboot/lead male) and not simply due to these other reasons you're quick to mention?

 

[roach]

The extreme approach would literally be adapting Shakespeare in with TF lore and arriving at 'the best film' possible if you will. But what would this GA think and how much success would be had vs the current situation.

Robotmio and Julieticon?

"A rose by any other name is still more than meets the eye."

 

[Marvin]

Cap never contradicts his inspiring speeches like Optimus though. "Every sentient being is allowed the right to freedom!" He can say that all he wants, his actions suggest otherwise. It's just lip service at the end of the day. Cap's actions suggest he actually means what he says. He never contradicts his ideals.

As for Groot? He kills bunch of alien murderers in a combat situation. He doesn't execute fallen and unarmed foes begging for mercy. He doesn't enslave a whole race of beings to do his bidding for him.

If Marvels films were universally panned then it wouldn't surprise me if you was apologizing for them.

The thing is, it's ok to like bad movies. Just admit they're bad. I bet 99% of the general audiences who go to these Transformers films know they are garbage with pretty visuals. But they don't give a ****. I can respect that. Hell i bet Michael Bay knows these films are garbage when it comes to plot and characterization. He knows exactly what he's doing and he doesn't care. Good for him.

But then you have people like you suggesting that in terms of story and characterization, these films are unfairly judged compared to other summer movies? hahahaha do me a favour. The differences between these films and Marvels films or original summer movies like Edge of Tomorrow are clear as day.

Groot isn't just a dancing baby in a cup... Was my point. And actually he didn't need to kill all those guys(this much would be clear to any fervent MOS detractor anyways) He certainly didn't need to smile directly after it too. Again the point was simply about selective 'microcosms'. Heroes calling others '****e' is a microcosm if one see's fit. Anything could be if you look at it obtusely enough. The issue of cynicism and self interest...

Optimus contradicting his earlier stance is an interesting discussion, especially in the way of arcing nature of wartime characters, but I find myself bloody curious how that arrives us at a 'microcosm' of all he is as you stated earlier. I'm not comparing how how many times each character has contradicted themselves(on film that is). I was talking about you dictating 'microcosm' and how that says more about you than what is actually on screen.

If marvel films were unfairly panned then I would probably face that head on as well. I can't stand that sort of thing to be honest, not with art anyways. As for admitting to liking 'bad' movies. I personally don't think such a sentiment should exist It's like admitting to liking a bad painting(white canvas with a red square to the side). If you like it then than you shouldn't have to be forced into admitting it's 'bad'. But rather arguing why you find it good.
This isn't some sort of discussion about the new equation of special relativity, which can factually be proven good or bad or strong or weak. It's all of it preference. And I care little what the 'masses' consider the rules of good or bad, rather what they endorse as effective or engaging. Again, this very same thing happened with Pollock and Kubrick. Fickle rules striving to control the truth of the matter.
Next someone will tell me to admit guardians is a bad film, or as nonsensical as any of these nonsensical lesser films(as argued in that LAtimes column for example), as it compares to all the academy caliber stuff out there.
I do find the sentiment that the marvel films are all that much better rather interesting. Seeing for myself people get into apologist mode whether they are aware of it or not. I've even seen people defend butt shots and enjoy sexualized humor and female objectification in the apologist tradition. What happens when someone likes a film is a wonderful thing. I suppose that's what's been going on with all these TF fans over the years.

It would be far easier if people could simply 'admit' to not liking a film instead of the usual discourse of over stating what the film supposedly is. At least that way when the box office does what it does there is less mud having to be thrown either direction. Things might even be more consistent as far as detraction goes, less picking and choosing that is.

 

[Marvin]

I got into this very same discussion with a friend of mine over this movie...Avengers hits a billion and it's cause people love the film....Transformers hits a billion and it's because people were tricked into seeing the movie and people hate it and....when a movie hits a billion that means people are seeing it again and again.

What's also interesting is this new phenomena of dismissing China on a case by case basis.

Without china alot of recent films go down significantly. This very year even. Making money in China has always been some added compliment to a franchises success and is only now being seen turned against success as it pertains to the point to be made. For example, if one lists the recent stream of successful CBM's without china:
DOFP - 625
ASM2 - 614
MOS - 605
TWS - 597
TDW - 598

It paints a 'slightly' different picture as to the old order of operations.

With TDK not even opening in china, and removing 52 from TDKR still landing it above a billion. Villainizing the Chinese dollar(more than stock analysts already have anyway) changes the course of cbm success around here. But we don't do that.

Only time will tell were TF4 lands(in the order of operations), it still has some key markets to open in(it seen sizable growth in Japan). Some films don't need China whatsoever but this new trend is off base imo. That's the thing about perspective, even without China, TF is still on it's way to being the top grosser this summer(I think it's 735mill), if it isn't already. That's success.

 

[The Overlord]

People forget that movies are entertainment. Their job is to entertain.

..and why is it people try to put an Asterix on box office numbers they don't agree with....no one says a thing about business or marketing when a movie they like makes a billion...but when Bay does it...twice...all of a sudden people are stupid and sheep and the guys is a business wiz and the movie was marketed well.

Well unless all the critics out there have some sinister agenda to unfairly criticize Transformers movies and not the Marvel movies, I think some of their criticism is valid.

Why do critics praise Winter Solider and Guardians of the Galaxy and scorn the Transformers films, the critics just biased haters or are the Marvel movies better in quality then the Transformers ones?

 

[Marvin]

^ Critics(the handfull or so people that supposedly represent a portion of the film audience) don't actually base all of that stuff on 'quality'. They base it on their own personal standards.

At the end of the day, many of them just like certain films more than others(same as any of us). That's why Sharknado has a higher score than some oscar movies, or evil dead has it's perfect or whatever...

 

[The Overlord]

^ Critics(the handfull or so people that supposedly represent a portion of the film audience) don't actually base all of that stuff on 'quality'. They base it on their own personal standards.

At the end of the day, many of them just like certain films more than others(same as any of us). That's why Sharknado has a higher score than some oscar movies, or evil dead has it's perfect or whatever...

But does that mean their criticism is without merit? Yes it would be unfair to compare Transformers to some Oscar Bait movie, but when two movies in the same genre, the Marvel movies and the Transformers movies get radically different reviews, maybe there is something to the criticism the Transformers get.

Unless there is a giant conspiracy, it seems like several critics decided on their own that these Transformers movie are not very good.

Besides if we don't judge things on personal critical thinking skills, don't we encourage a herd mentality?