WB's 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them' original script by J.K. Rowling - Part 2

[jmc]

I'm really curious to know what WB's expectation were for this film. $680m is a good number for the type of movie it is but for the property it's related to it's kinda coming up short.

 

[Ivan Drago]

I'm pretty sure were getting a sequel regardless.

 

[Marvolo]

I'm really curious to know what WB's expectation were for this film. $680m is a good number for the type of movie it is but for the property it's related to it's kinda coming up short.

Domestically and internationally it's the least successful one of the 9 films and 6 of those films didn't have the benefit of 3D and still managed to out gross Fantastic Beasts. I would guess that WB's expectations were one billion.

 

[AverageMan]

Domestically and internationally it's the least successful one of the 9 films and 6 of those films didn't have the benefit of 3D and still managed to out gross Fantastic Beasts. I would guess that WB's expectations were one billion.

I doubt they expected a billion from a franchise opener.
But given it's heritage, I'd say they're expecting $800m+?

 

[Drizzle]

They clearly had to have known that they weren't going to reach Deathly Hallows numbers. This wasn't a Force Awakens situation where you had the original cast returning, it's a spinoff prequel with an entirely new cast. $600 million is still impressive.

 

[InCali]

I doubt they expected a billion from a franchise opener.
But given it's heritage, I'd say they're expecting $800m+?

The international numbers are quite impressive and DOM isn't "bad". I'd say WB is okay with how it performed, expects more in the future, and, needless to say, sequel is a done deal. I'll go see it.

 

[AverageMan]

The international numbers are quite impressive and DOM isn't "bad". I'd say WB is okay with how it performed, expects more in the future, and, needless to say, sequel is a done deal. I'll go see it.

So it's on $680m WW currently? I think realistically it can still add anywhere between $50m - $75m on to that total in the time remaining on it's run?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

FB will finish it's domestic run with around 230-235 million and the OS gross will probably end up at 515 million. So, WW total is likely gonna be around 750 million. The 3 weeks during the holidays will be crucial because FB faces more movies at the BO in domestic markets so it stands to lose more theaters than movies in it's slot usually does. I was personally hoping for 800 million but 750 million will be good result anyway. I think WB will be very happy with the final numbers.

 

[InCali]

FB will finish it's domestic run with around 230-235 million and the OS gross will probably end up at 515 million. So, WW total is likely gonna be around 750 million. The 3 weeks during the holidays will be crucial because FB faces more movies at the BO in domestic markets so it stands to lose more theaters than movies in it's slot usually does. I was personally hoping for 800 million but 750 million will be good result anyway. I think WB will be very happy with the final numbers.

There are a lot of people who know more about this than I do (probably including you), but given a 10M weekend, a shade under 200M, and R1 coming up, doesn't 235 seem a little bit high? I would think more like something in the range of mid/high 220M.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

There are a lot of people who know more about this than I do (probably including you), but given a 10M weekend, a shade under 200M, and R1 coming up, doesn't 235 seem a little bit high? I would think more like something in the range of mid/high 220M.

I knew someone would ask this question and it's a very valid one as well. I'll be honest when I say I'm being generous/optimistic with my predictions.

With that out of the way, last year MJ2 was at 244 million coming at the back of an 11.4 million weekend and it finished with 281 million against the frickin' biggest domestic movie ever in SW:TFA.

The only thing that might hinder the possibility of FB reaching 230-235 million is the number of releases during the holidays and beyond.

 

[InCali]

I knew someone would ask this question and it's a very valid one as well. I'll be honest when I say I'm being generous/optimistic with my predictions.

With that out of the way, last year MJ2 was at 244 million coming at the back of an 11.4 million weekend and it finished with 281 million against the frickin' biggest domestic movie ever in SW:TFA.

The only thing that might hinder the possibility of FB reaching 230-235 million is the number of releases during the holidays and beyond.

Good catch. Man, MJ2 really hung in there for a couple of weeks post TFA. Way better than I would have expected. I'm thinking that FB may not do the same. Passengers and Assassin's Creed follow on the heels of R1. MJ2 was just generally stronger at the BO and the final nail in the coffin that was The Hunger Games.

Still, your point is well taken.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Good catch. Man, MJ2 really hung in there for a couple of weeks post TFA. Way better than I would have expected. I'm thinking that FB may not do the same. Passengers and Assassin's Creed follow on the heels of R1. MJ2 was just generally stronger at the BO and the final nail in the coffin that was The Hunger Games.

Still, your point is well taken.

What helped MJ2 or any THG movie for that matter was that it generally skewed younger. FB's majority audience is older, the ones who'll come in huge numbers to see Rogue One and it will put a big dent in FB's BO performance.

Also don't forget Sing, it can become another Illumination big money maker like SLOP earlier this year, (BTDub SLOP has passed DM2 and that is insane for an original animation outside Disney Studios) which will hurt both FB and Moana in the long run.

 

[AverageMan]

This is up to $685m now, do you think, even with Rogue One, this can pass $700m this weekend?

 

[lime]

This is up to $685m now, do you think, even with Rogue One, this can pass $700m this weekend?

For sure. It will do at least 15 from overseas alone.

 

[InCali]

Do people think FB will catch DS at the DOM box office? By looking at the trends, it looks like it'll fall a little bit short. The OS numbers look really, really strong.

 

[lime]

Does it matter? The movie is 700+ WW in 31 days. This is more than great numbers for a start of a franchise.

 

[InCali]

Does it matter? The movie is 700+ WW in 31 days. This is more than great numbers for a start of a franchise.

I was wondering what people think. They both came out around the same time, both did well and are both movies about magic. People ask questions like this (about BO numbers) all the time. None of it really MATTERS, but, generally, they get opinions and civil answers.

 

[Sleiek]

Doctor Strange had a 14 day headstart. Even then, Fantastic Beasts beat it WW owing to its massive half a billion dollars overseas. But looking at the daily numbers for Domestic, Fantastic Beasts MIGHT catch up. DS is only leading by 16 million domestically. Not a big difference.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If this finishes under 800m, don't think that is great. Would make it easily the worst of all the films when adjusted for inflation. Especially as this is the first movie in the series. Why would the next film go up? And these aren't cheap, at all.

 

[Sleiek]

Transformers 1 also did similar numbers and all its sequels broke 1 Billion line.

You can't assume what happened to TMNT will happen to Fantastic Beasts because it is a well made entertaining film, just as good as the Sorcerer's Stone.

 

[InCali]

Doctor Strange had a 14 day headstart. Even then, Fantastic Beasts beat it WW owing to its massive half a billion dollars overseas. But looking at the daily numbers for Domestic, Fantastic Beasts MIGHT catch up. DS is only leading by 16 million domestically. Not a big difference.

Thanks. I knew I could count on someone. From looking at the trends, it looks like DS is maintaining its distance from a week to week comparison, but FB definitely looks stronger during the week (maybe because a lot of schools are out?) DS weekdays haven't dropped much at all (maybe for the same reason). It looks like it will be pretty close.....not that it MATTERS.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Transformers 1 also did similar numbers and all its sequels broke 1 Billion line.

You can't assume what happened to TMNT will happen to Fantastic Beasts because it is a well made entertaining film, just as good as the Sorcerer's Stone.

There wasn't 8 Transfomers movies beforehand. Look at the Potter series. Where we saw drops in the series until the final one.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=jkrowling.htm

Also didn't realize you wouldn't need to even adjust inflation. It is behind POA still.

I really enjoyed Fantastic Beast, but that doesn't make the numbers great.

 

[InCali]

There wasn't 8 Transfomers movies beforehand. Look at the Potter series. Where we saw drops in the series until the final one.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=jkrowling.htm

Also didn't realize you wouldn't need to even adjust inflation. It is behind POA still.

I really enjoyed Fantastic Beast, but that doesn't make the numbers great.

It seems like there were a LOT more than 8 $#!tformers movies to me......

I think the numbers are fine and I could see the second one in this series doing better. We'll see.

 

[Sleiek]

What I am saying it if people generally enjoyed the film, they will come back for the sequels.

Also, more people will come to see it because, as I understand, many people don't try out the first in a series at the theater.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What I am saying it if people generally enjoyed the film, they will come back for the sequels.

Also, more people will come to see it because, as I understand, many people don't try out the first in a series at the theater.

This would be the 10th movie in the series. And really, sequels can shed people just because the first film is the one people "try out". There are exceptions, like low turn out for the first film or new markets opening up. Also if the first film is a big surprise, people will come out of the sequel, like PotC and TDKT.

I like Fantastic Beast, but this isn't Batman Begins. I actually get a TASM feel from this series.