The Avengers What Would Happen if Thor and Cap Bomb?

[jmc]

Is Marvel jumping the gun by putting The Avengers into production months before Thor and Cap come out? They will have no choice but to release the movie at that point, but it could be at a significant loss if too few people show interest in Thor and Captain America.

That's the risk. I think if those two films don't do well Avengers will be very Iron Man heavy in promotion, maybe even made to look like a de facto IM3. That's the only back up plan I can foresee, make it look very IM heavy. Can you imagine being in the meeting room during production of Avengers if the news came out that Thor did poorly at the box office? I'd love to be a fly on the wall during that meeting.

 

[Golgo-13]

That's ridiculous and suggests that people only have the desire to see one CBM a year. If you forgot, after the very successful Iron Man came another movie called "The Dark Knight." What a silly judgment to make based on one year.

Batman is a DC character; IM is a Marvel one. These solo movies are a set up to The Avengers. They need to be successful for that movie to be successful.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If they both bomb, Avengers will be treated like Iron Man 3 with Iron Man getting the most screen time.

 

[Golgo-13]

Won't Avenger already have been filmed by the time Cap and Thor comes out? They'll at least be still filming during that time, so i'm assuming they'll tweak the story and the amount of screen time each character gets, based on the out come of the solo movies.

 

[Son of Coul]

Batman is a DC character; IM is a Marvel one. These solo movies are a set up to The Avengers. They need to be successful for that movie to be successful.

TIH's lukewarm BO return didn't have to do with it being a Marvel movie. To the GA it's all the same ****.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Won't Avenger already have been filmed by the time Cap and Thor comes out? They'll at least be still filming during that time, so i'm assuming they'll tweak the story and the amount of screen time each character gets, based on the out come of the solo movies.

The barometer is with Thor on its opening week.

I think they are still going to put extra spotlight on IM regardless of how Thor & Cap are doing because RDJ is the biggest lead. Marvel surely aren't going to piss off RDJ because of screen time. It goes without saying IM is set up as the main man in the upcoming Avengers cartoon and Superhero Squad. IM is the Cap for the younger generation.

 

[Archrivals]

Even though the Norton factor has me disappointed in the Avengers movie. I still hope the Thor & Cap movies deliver. I agree that Iron man is the ring leader for the newer fans…

 

[B]

If Thor & Captain America bomb they'll simply use Iron Man as the main marketing character.

 

[Evil Twin]

Marvel will probably have a good handle on how Thor and Captain America are tracking/early fan reaction, well ahead of their actual opening. Initial reactions to Thor at Comic Con for instance.

I'm kind of expecting that RDJ is going to be the #1 focus of the movie anyways. That's their star and proven commodity. They'll probably give themselves some editing options for Captain America, Thor, and Hulk, along with the other characters, but Iron Man is certainly going to be at the center of things.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Batman is a DC character; IM is a Marvel one. These solo movies are a set up to The Avengers. They need to be successful for that movie to be successful.

Yeah, one will make all the money, and the other one will just get by i.e The Incredible Hulk and Iron Man in 2008.

I will suggest that the general public doesn't really know the difference between Marvel and DC. 2008 might offer an example of what happens when THREE super hero movies come out the same summer. Two hits, one lukewarm. (Unless you count Hellboy 2...than that makes Two hits, one lukewarm, one underperformer)

 

[Stripesy Strip]

I want these two movies to kick ass. If they bomb I will be sad as it's a dream of every comic fans to finaly see these characters in big Hollywood movies. But it wouldn't surprise me if they fail or if they're not good as I have zero faith in Marvel Studios at this point. I think their model for making these films is screwed up and we saw signs of that with Iron Man 2. I think they're going cheap instead of hiring the best directors and actors around. And they're too obsessed with their chared Universe concept and making crisscrossing storylines than thinking about doing great individual movies in their own right. All in the goal to make cheap short term ca$h.

 

[hatebox]

I think Thor will do well relative to the somewhat low expectations I have for it. I'm looking forward to it more than Cap but he just isn't well-known outside of fans. But Brannagh's a good director and I think it'll have an air of gravitas so often lacking in this genre.

Cap I don't expect to do particularly well. Lightweight lead and a lightweight director. Maybe the name alone will encourage its domestic cume but internationally no-one will care.

Either way, Avengers will still happen. But if the one or both of the above don't do well Marvel will be sweating bricks.

 

[Dark Raven]

I imagine that Whedon will film a lot of extra footage of RDJ and how Thor and Cap do will determine how much ends up in the film or how much on the cutting room floor.

 

[hatebox]

I imagine that Whedon will film a lot of extra footage of RDJ and how Thor and Cap do will determine how much ends up in the film or how much on the cutting room floor.

At this rate it sounds like something Marvel would do, even if the whole 'design by committee' approach doesn't bode well for creating a good film.

 

[jmc]

Don't suppose they'd have multiple scripts in place would they just in case? If Thor and Cap are released mid next year, and Avengers is suppose to start filming early next year, in theory filming should be done around the time Thor is released. Which could theoretically mean Thor and Cap Am will have no barring on the film regardless of how well they are received. I can't be the only one who thinks they're doing this backwards, they cannot be that confident that things will simply fall into place.

 

[Webhead38]

It's an enormous gamble. Your talking about nearly three quarters of a billion dollars in movies being produced and marketed to the masses in a short period of time. All in the same genre and all being tied to one another. THAT alone is risky - Thor (May 5th 2011), Cap (July 22, 2011), and Avengers (May4th 2012). The Potter and Twilight films are released once a year and pull in about the same ballpark money from a rabid fan base with hit novels to boot. But they have a year between films to build interest, market the merchandise and sell DVD's before the next one hits. Marvel is banking they can cram three films, merchandise and sell aftermarket DVDS on two of the tree films all within a YEAR! Even if Thor and Cap do marginally well, is the public going to have an appetite for the Avengers after being drowned in related merchandise and DVD's? Of course the fan base will bath in it. But big budget films need outside interest as well. Thor and Cap are not established product like Marvel's Spiderman or DC's Batman. And you can't claim because they share the comic genre, that entitles them to huge success - Check with Daredevil and Ghost Rider for those examples. PLUS Ironman 2, while big out of the gate, petered out quickly. If I'm an accountant at Marvel, my thinking is the residuals from DVD's and toys will help retrieve costs on production if the films themselves can't do it on first run. Still very, very risky.

 

[Son of Coul]

and that's what's kind of enticing about it

 

[That-Guy]

If both films bomb, or under-perform, Marvel will determine that Chris Hemsworth and Chris Evans do not embody the creativity and collaborative spirit of their other talented cast members, and opt to replace them.

 

[MelbourneGirl]

I don't think either film will bomb... Thor is going to be awesome! Plus Captain America will surely be a hit!! It should come out close to July 4th though, in my opinion...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

One of the movies is bound to underperform...sorry but I just see that happening.

To answer the question: Even if they bomb, they will still make alot of money (over 100mil) and The Avengers will still be made. I've have always believed that RDJ was going to get the biggest role in the flick because he is a big star with two big franchises.

 

[jmc]

If both films bomb, or under-perform, Marvel will determine that Chris Hemsworth and Chris Evans do not embody the creativity and collaborative spirit of their other talented cast members, and opt to replace them.

You should print that on T-shirts and sell them.

 

[Matt]

What will happen? Not much. Being as filming will already be pretty far underway by the time Cap hits theaters, if both bomb, Marvel is still in too deep to back out. Its why this was always such a risk. What happens if Iron Man's success was a fluke and does not extend to the rest of the Avengers or a team movie? It is why this movie was considered a gamble on Marvel's part.

That said, while I do think both will underperform I don't think either will be an outright bomb. I just don't think Thor will interest people all that much, and as for Cap, between casting and choice of director....I see bad word of mouth sinking it following a good opening (think X3). I think we'll be looking at a Superman Returns type scenario for both. Just kind of an icky gray area where its not really good enough for a sequel, but also profitable when all is said and done (TV rights sold, DVD sales, etc).

Unfortunately for Marvel they will be half way through filming a massive sequel (Avengers) by the time Cap hits box office. It will be too late to completely rework the film or pull the brakes. What will happen with the Avengers box office? Anyone's guess. But we're off topic.

The question is, what will happen if Cap and Thor bomb? From a film standpoint, absolutely nothing at all. The affect will be from a marketing standpoint. And that effect will be putting all of the marketing on Downey's shoulders. The TV spots and trailers will become 80 % Iron Man and Downey will do most of the PR.

 

[Dark Raven]

Whether or not Iron Man leads the Avengers, he's probably going to end up the movie Wolverine of the Avengers with Cap being like Cyclops. Out of the big three, he is the character the public will most relate to and like. He is already even set up to be the naysayer of the team who finds the whole concept rather silly, which is usually the main character in most movies and the one through whom the audience sees things, just like Wolverine and his thoughts about the X-Men and their code names in X-Men 1 (eg referring to Prof X as "Wheels").

 

[Mace Dolex]

We have to realize that it comes all down to how much money people are willing to spend on a crowded summer next year, with Thor being the first to be released it might make just a tad more (not because Thor's popular) than Cap America because it's the first summer movie out of the gate.

 

[Doc Samson]

I actually think, if marketed right, Thor could attract more general fans who might not even be into comics that much. He's more fantasy based anyway, couple that with Greek mythos and a lot of people might want to see it regardless of his actual "comic" fanbase.

Cap on the other hand I'm not so sure, besides the fact that I'm on the fence with the casting until we see some footage, just his character may be an issue.

He's just a good guy, the ultimate American, if you will. He represents truth, justice, the American way (maybe not as much as Superman, but pretty close) especially if we're focusing on his more humble beginnings. Besides the fact that America isn't seen in the greatest light nowadays, the general public here has shown, IMO, a lack of interest for wholesome characters.