I would say the third movie if a fourth movie was certain and released not too log afterwards, although that's not something you can rely on. The second film does give it that "Empire Strikes Back deal" where you can get away with it being depressing but have the hope of a happy resolution in the end of the trilogy.
So even though I feel Gwen dying in the third would be the ideal, it's not that realistic. I don't know though, if they do have her death in the sequel, they have a lot to do in that movie like introducing MJ, Norman and building Gwen's death up so that it actually has meaning. If they realistically can make it a quadrilogy then the third movie is best, I'd prefer it happening in the third but otherwise the second film is best.
So even though I feel Gwen dying in the third would be the ideal, it's not that realistic. I don't know though, if they do have her death in the sequel, they have a lot to do in that movie like introducing MJ, Norman and building Gwen's death up so that it actually has meaning. If they realistically can make it a quadrilogy then the third movie is best, I'd prefer it happening in the third but otherwise the second film is best.
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... then I want to see a happy ending. Have Peter finally get over Gwen, and be with MJ.