Transformers Will Transformers Trounce the Competition?

[Golgo-13]

Well promotion is in high gear right now for TF, and with Mtv smothering it into the impressionable drones that are the Mtv crowd, i doubt TF has anything to worry about money wise.

FF2 is doing what Sony did with SM3. It's over-promoting it. I guess nowdays, as far as B.O is concerned, studios only really care about making a big bang the first weekend. Why else would they show half the damn movie via tv spots like they're doing with FF2, and did with SM3?

Maybe its a MARVEL thing.

 

[tviceman]

It's hard to say exactly how much it'll make obviously but anything over 200 for this film would be amazing. I see a huge drop off in week 2. If it makes 100 million from opening day until the end fo the day on Sunday then 200 is possible but FF is rated PG and right behind it, Die Hard has alot of fans and Willis attracts a broader crowd then CGI toys flying around, and Potter will just own Transformers. I think my 175 is a bit low. I think it can hit 200 maybe slighly higher. So there's my little revision and I'll stick to that however it won't be a cake walk.

I see and understand your reasoning, although I might not agree with it completely. Time will tell obviously, so we'll see!

 

[Deadpool876]

I won't be surprised if TF would do that. Anyone feels that TF has a Jurassic Park or ID4 craze? I think TF will have a big opening and a good word of mouth.

 

[The Kid]

I won't be surprised if TF would do that. Anyone feels that TF has a Jurassic Park or ID4 craze? I think TF will have a big opening and a good word of mouth.

Gosh there are just a million factors involved here, it's hard to pin down how exactly transformers could do.

Whats its biggest strength imo has been that it's fresh. It's not retreading something already done in a previous original film or a sequel.

People are sick of sequels. I don't count potter because it's just a book adaptation.

But we're completely utterly sick of movie sequels which seem basically done to cash in on the franchise name quickly then be forgotten tomorrow.

That's why Knocked up is even scratching the surface of number 1 at the box office. And why I think surfs up will surprise many.

TF? This is a no brainer. Not only is the berg, most respected filmmaker in hollywood producing it, but it's the return of Peter Cullen to optimus prime. No matter what you think of flames and stuff, that's all valid criticism, but dwarfed by the great voice work of the original prime booming through speakers on july 2. I'll quickly forget what problems I have when I hear "autobots transform and roll out..."

However, I've been here before. When Bill murray was cast as garfield, i thought they hit the jackpot. He's bill murray, friggin venkman. I was wrong... Garfield was garbage... Still there's still the berg factor. Berg wouldn't accept something below his own standards, I hope.

 

[The Apatow Crew]

This film will ultimately be a dark horse, like I previously mentioned.

No i defianlly think the dark horse of ths summer will be FF2. It should do bwtter business then the first.

But who knows. were have to wait and see.

 

[The Kid]

depends on how naked jessica alba is in it.

 

[Nivek]

I doubt she's naked in it (or any flick for that matter). Actually, I've heard unfavorable comments about her looking like one of the guys in make-up from Hot Chicks. Not a good comparison IMO. But honestly, I can see it.

The Spielberg as produser factor is a big thing. The guys got a hell of a track record.

 

[kzupin]

Well look at her hair in the movie, it looks flat. Which makes her head looked squished. She dosn't look attractive at all in the movie.

 

[Golgo-13]

The blue contacts killed Alba's look to me in FF.

 

[Warhammer]

edit...

 

[Spidey Lover 10]

huh?

 

[Warhammer]

My Transformers bias made me post that...

 

[Modernize73]

Your forgetting one major factor. Spidey and Pirates had a large female audience thanks to the cast and storylines. Transformers fan base are probably 95% male. They'll all go the first weekend and then a 70% drop. Not 69% but 70%. Also very few people are going to see Trasnformers to "get it out of the way" so they can see Harry Potter. Some of your figures here are out of whack with reality. 720 million just international and 420 million domestic. C'mon people get real. You think Transformers is gonna make that much. There is no female audience and it's not a franchise that has saturated the international market like Potter, Spidey, etc...

No F'n chance in hell it makes 300 million domestic. Not even a ghost of a chance. You give your fanbase too much credit.

Dude Shia is on fire right now and they've been plastering duhammel, and tyrese all over the commercials...i guess no females were interested in dinosaurs? Or ID4?? I hate using that last one cause the ID4 story is tripe...I've read the leaked script and it is heavy laden with items to attract the female viewer (which has p1ssed off alot of the loyals)

And no International appeal????!!?? Are you on Crack? This whole line of toys and cartoons originated in Japan and the asian markets, which are pretty fanatical compared to the US markets. Not too mention you'll see alot of people going to this movie over seas for the shear artistry of the effects...

here's some "adjusted for inflation" numbers for ya:

17Jurassic ParkUni.$567,234,400 $357,067,947 1993

34Independence DayFox$455,789,200 $306,169,268 1996

There is no way that transformers will be outpreformed by the likes of ID4...not with spielberg backing it. Do you realize how ground breaking this movie is?

 

[Spidey Lover 10]

Hmmm...

 

[Warhammer]

Transformers not having a female audience to back it up is not fully true.
I wouldn't say that Transformers appeals more to the male audience than say the Spider-Man, Independence Day, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Jurassic Park, or ever Star Wars, and we know how much money those movies made.

Besides, how do we know that the females aren't diggin' Transformers?
Like Modernize73 said, Shia on a roll right now, Josh Duhamel and Tyrese are getting much attention, and so on. There very much is a chance for this movie to make 300+ million. Transformers is also one of the freshest movies in recent memory. It's groundbreaking in it's own right. I'm not saying that I am confident about it making those numbers, but it has more than a "ghost of a chance."

 

[Spidey Lover 10]

does it REALLY matter?

 

[Advanced Dark]

Dude Shia is on fire right now and they've been plastering duhammel, and tyrese all over the commercials...i guess no females were interested in dinosaurs? Or ID4?? I hate using that last one cause the ID4 story is tripe...I've read the leaked script and it is heavy laden with items to attract the female viewer (which has p1ssed off alot of the loyals)

And no International appeal????!!?? Are you on Crack? This whole line of toys and cartoons originated in Japan and the asian markets, which are pretty fanatical compared to the US markets. Not too mention you'll see alot of people going to this movie over seas for the shear artistry of the effects...

here's some "adjusted for inflation" numbers for ya:

17Jurassic ParkUni.$567,234,400 $357,067,947 1993

34Independence DayFox$455,789,200 $306,169,268 1996

There is no way that transformers will be outpreformed by the likes of ID4...not with spielberg backing it. Do you realize how ground breaking this movie is?

I suggest you read my post again because you misquoted me. I never said it has "Not international appeal."

Please read my post again.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Transformers not having a female audience to back it up is not fully true.
I wouldn't say that Transformers appeals more to the male audience than say the Spider-Man, Independence Day, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Jurassic Park, or ever Star Wars, and we know how much money those movies made.

Besides, how do we know that the females aren't diggin' Transformers?
Like Modernize73 said, Shia on a roll right now, Josh Duhamel and Tyrese are getting much attention, and so on. There very much is a chance for this movie to make 300+ million. Transformers is also one of the freshest movies in recent memory. It's groundbreaking in it's own right. I'm not saying that I am confident about it making those numbers, but it has more than a "ghost of a chance."

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see it doesn't have a balanced audience or as balanced of an audience as the other films I mentioned. I'm sure there are some females that watch it but for the most part they'll not be really dying to see it. Yeah there are exceptions to the rule and probably females on this board and elsewhere that want to see it but nothing close to Spidey or Pirates. Not even in the same league. The male audience might drive Transformers to a solid opening weekend but then that's where it ends. Just like there are probably some adults males who will go watch Nancy Drew next week...that doesn't mean that it balances out the targeted demographic. LOL It has no chance to make 300 million domestic. It's just not in the cards. Maybe it'll surprise me and get close to 250 but I doubt it. That doesn't mean it won't be a fun film...it's just limited.

Regarding Jurassic Park that was a film helmed by Steven Spielberg and every kid and adult on the planet is fascinated in Dino's to some extent. The book was also a best seller by a great author. ID4 had Will Smith but yeah that movie made more than it deserved...but it did make it. Those trailers for ID4 were more impressive tome than anything from Transformers though...even now. My problem with that flick was it was way too watered down and disconnected. For some reason I own it on DVD...probably a gift I forgot. LOL

Regarding the cast...Tyrese is not a box office draw nor is Josh...yet. I think Josh is gonna be much bigger soon.

 

[EnvyEquatesHate]

Theres no way transformers is trashin Spider-Man and the others.

It'll survive though.

 

[Spidey Lover 10]

yeah...there is.......

 

[tviceman]

I again just want to reiterate that I believe Transformers will be the third highest (domestic) grossing film this year.

 

[Tempest19]

If POTC continues the way it's going and HP is the next POTC3 to TF's SM3... then yeah, might have a chance.

 

[Warhammer]

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see it doesn't have a balanced audience or as balanced of an audience as the other films I mentioned. I'm sure there are some females that watch it but for the most part they'll not be really dying to see it. Yeah there are exceptions to the rule and probably females on this board and elsewhere that want to see it but nothing close to Spidey or Pirates. Not even in the same league. The male audience might drive Transformers to a solid opening weekend but then that's where it ends. Just like there are probably some adults males who will go watch Nancy Drew next week...that doesn't mean that it balances out the targeted demographic. LOL It has no chance to make 300 million domestic. It's just not in the cards. Maybe it'll surprise me and get close to 250 but I doubt it. That doesn't mean it won't be a fun film...it's just limited.

I never said that it would reach 300 million, I just said it's not impossible for the movie to reach 300 million. I also fail to see how the first Spider-Man and Pirates movies are exceptions. They were hits that many people didn't see coming. Transformers can apply to that, as well. Even though it will never come close to these numbers, Star Wars, IMO, really wouldn't appeal to the females either, but then what happened? Star Wars became the highest grossing movie of all-time (non-adjusted) until Titanic took that title 20 years later. Also, we can say that now Pirates had a pretty good demographic (it really did, I must truly admit), but nobody on this planet expected it to make the loot that it did.

Regarding Jurassic Park that was a film helmed by Steven Spielberg and every kid and adult on the planet is fascinated in Dino's to some extent. The book was also a best seller by a great author.

True.
I completely forgot that it was a best selling novel.

ID4 had Will Smith but yeah that movie made more than it deserved...but it did make it. Those trailers for ID4 were more impressive tome than anything from Transformers though...even now. My problem with that flick was it was way too watered down and disconnected. For some reason I own it on DVD...probably a gift I forgot. LOL

ID4 making more money than you claim it deserved doesn't take away the fact that it made serious coin. I am sure that the female audience wouldn't be interested in space ships anyway, but look what happened. For Will Smith, he was only known as for The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, his rap career, and Bad Boys. It was after ID4 that it became established that he was a major box office draw.

Regarding the cast...Tyrese is not a box office draw nor is Josh...yet. I think Josh is gonna be much bigger soon.

Sometimes, the cast is outweighed by the actual movie, itself.
I wouldn't say that people went to see Spider-Man because Tobey Maguire or Kirsten Dunst were starring in it.

------------------------------------------

In short, this is just a matter of opinion.
You believe one thing, and I believe another.
I am looking at the small chance/possibility of Transformers making some serious coin. Logically, I'd say it wouldn't make over 300 million (because I think only 15 or so films actually made that much domestically), but I am trying to speak for the side of Transformers by not fully dismissing it's chances.

...The last thing I can say is that you'd be surprised.

 

[Warhammer]

does it REALLY matter?

No, but this thread is a where people will debate.

 

[Cinemaman]

For me, Megan Fox>>>Jessica Alba