Transformers Will Transformers Trounce the Competition?

[Modernize73]

I see Transformers making in the 400-600 million dollar range worldwide. I would be pleasantly surprised to see it make in that 800 million upper tier.

Dude, this movie will easily make 600 in the international markets alone. Does anyone realize how big this toy line and this style of story is going to be in the asian markets??

My guess....420 domestic. 770 international
This is Jurassic park all over again...(people will see this thing 2-3 times just for the special effects alone)

Opening week including the tuesday and wednesday pick up....
Tues... 17 mil
Wed... 28 mil
Thurs... 45 mil
Fri.. 37 mil
Sat 42 mil
Sun 29 mil

total... 198mil


yes i'm an optimist

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ LMFAO at those figures.

 

[Supreme Power]

^ LMFAO at those figures.

Hey AD, are you one of the guys thinking Transformers won't make more than 200 million domestic? Because I'll bet you right now it's making more than that.

 

[Tempest19]

Yeah, he is. LMAOL.

The more sane predictions 180-230 with possible bump due to a "new" factor in a summer filled with sequels.

 

[Modernize73]

^ LMFAO at those figures.

1. Transformers is opening against absolutely nothing that week....
2. It has appeal to families as well as gen-x,y,and i can care
3. All other movies have been weak this year, yes weak...the trailers to this movie have been more exciting than what i've seen in the theatres. (yes I saw SM3 and POTC3...both were ok at best, thanks to the dancing spidey scene and jack gone mad crap)
4. The largest aggregate weekend of all time is the first weekend of July (yes even moreso than memorial day)
5. just July 7th-9th last year brought in 209 million, most of it going to dead mans chest...and sparsely divied amongst the rest....
6. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SEE IT AND GET IT OUT OF THE WAY BECAUSE THE NEXT WEEK THEY HAVE HARRY POTTER TO GO SEE....
7. Loyals will go on Tues...Thurs...and probably Sunday, expect a few of those.


Critics won't be enough against this movie to calm the wow factor unless it gets all F's....and I find that highly unlikely...

M73 out

 

[Marvin]

this movie should have opened on a friday and just had a huge weekend

 

[Jdef]

this movie should have opened on a friday and just had a huge weekend

I would have stuck to the Wednesday, might have had a shot at breaking the 5-day record.... i mean it opens on a Tuesday and has Monday evening screenings... that just random....

 

[Tempest19]

Evening or midnight? Evening would be POTC3 territory, if so- thanks for telling me.

 

[Marvin]

either way, (just like spidey two) it's just going to do ok...only stuff like camper friendly starwars and lotr do well with extra days

but i do understand staying away from (similar audience) Harry potter, I'm pretty damn curious as to way WB wanna kamikaze their last big hit of the summer at dreamworks like that...

if they just wait a week or two they could have smooth sailing for the rest of the summer
the people (who got fu<king rocked last year by pirates) at WB "marketing" suck so damn bad it's dumb

 

[tviceman]

What I find amazing is that Universal Studios is releasing the most expensive comedy ever (Evan Almighty) right in between Fantastic Four, Die Hard, Transformers, and Harry Potter.

If Universal had any sort of brain power working behind the scenes they would have waited until mid/late August at the least. It's too bad because that film will surely be every bit as funny as Bruce Almighty.

 

[Cth]

Users who take the time to visit and vote at Yahoo movies routine give grades higher than critics. Even movies that flop. So that's by no means a good indicator.

But I agree to an extent with your last paragraph. I'm not saying critics are the main driving force here..... I'm only saying that I think they matter more nowdays than they did in the overhype blockbuster 90's when they seemed to not to matter at all.

I really don't know... but when was the last time a movie got 25% (as all Bay's movies seem to have) in Rotten Tomatoes and STILL done phenomallly at the box office? I'm literally asking cuz I don't know.

Rotten Tomatoes isn't the be-all-end-all when it comes to reviews

As far as Yahoo users giving films higher.. care to source that? If you're going by Bay's films, sure. The fact remains you're taking 9 biased people's opinions versus the general populace who pays to see the films.

If it was 1000 people, sure you could write it off.. but 10,000+ is kind of hard to write off.

Besides, again, summer films tend to be critic proof as seen.

Critics matter even less during summer months. Any other time, it might be debatable.

And even so, does this mean suddenly I have all this power? If I write a good review and it gets on Rotten Tomatoes have I suddenly become all powerful?

Are you saying my opinion will be worth more than 10,000+ of you guys?

 

[CFlash]

Critics matter even less during summer months. Any other time, it might be debatable.

I agree. But, they still do matter. I'm asking when the last time was a movie got 25% on RT and C in Yahoo averages and did phenomally in the Summer? I'm asking... cuz I don't know.

 

[tviceman]

I agree. But, they still do matter. I'm asking when the last time was a movie got 25% on RT and C in Yahoo averages and did phenomally in the Summer? I'm asking... cuz I don't know.

Well don't you worry because Transformers is promised at least a 39% on RT and a C+ average on yahoo!

 

[Advanced Dark]

1. Transformers is opening against absolutely nothing that week....
2. It has appeal to families as well as gen-x,y,and i can care
3. All other movies have been weak this year, yes weak...the trailers to this movie have been more exciting than what i've seen in the theatres. (yes I saw SM3 and POTC3...both were ok at best, thanks to the dancing spidey scene and jack gone mad crap)
4. The largest aggregate weekend of all time is the first weekend of July (yes even moreso than memorial day)
5. just July 7th-9th last year brought in 209 million, most of it going to dead mans chest...and sparsely divied amongst the rest....
6. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SEE IT AND GET IT OUT OF THE WAY BECAUSE THE NEXT WEEK THEY HAVE HARRY POTTER TO GO SEE....
7. Loyals will go on Tues...Thurs...and probably Sunday, expect a few of those.


Critics won't be enough against this movie to calm the wow factor unless it gets all F's....and I find that highly unlikely...

M73 out

Your forgetting one major factor. Spidey and Pirates had a large female audience thanks to the cast and storylines. Transformers fan base are probably 95% male. They'll all go the first weekend and then a 70% drop. Not 69% but 70%. Also very few people are going to see Trasnformers to "get it out of the way" so they can see Harry Potter. Some of your figures here are out of whack with reality. 720 million just international and 420 million domestic. C'mon people get real. You think Transformers is gonna make that much. There is no female audience and it's not a franchise that has saturated the international market like Potter, Spidey, etc...

No F'n chance in hell it makes 300 million domestic. Not even a ghost of a chance. You give your fanbase too much credit.

 

[xwolverine2]

a month or so ago i would have said F4 would beat TF.....

but with the mtv movie award advertising......

TF WILL OWN FANTASTIC FOUR AND DIEHARD... not so much harry though..lol

 

[nosebleed.]

a month or so ago i would have said F4 would beat TF.....

but with the mtv movie award advertising......

TF WILL OWN FANTASTIC FOUR AND DIEHARD... not so much harry though..lol

Did you change your mind just because of the advertising or because of the actual footage you've seen since then?

 

[tviceman]

I don't see this film making over 175 million. 200 will be a major struggle IMO and not very probable. Too much competition. Harry Potter a week later.

Are you still sticking by this claim? Because it's going to be way off.

 

[GL1]

Transformers has Harry Potter coming out the week after, that's going to dismantle a lot of it's second weekend sales... It'll do well, but it's not going to breaking any records... there's just too much going on this summer...

 

[YÅ«gi's BM]

Transformers has Harry Potter coming out the week after, that's going to dismantle a lot of it's second weekend sales... It'll do well, but it's not going to breaking any records... there's just too much going on this summer...

Is it a full week? I thought HP: OotP came on a Friday, and with Transformers coming out on a Tuesday they're sure to get a poop load of revenue.

 

[tviceman]

Transformers has Harry Potter coming out the week after, that's going to dismantle a lot of it's second weekend sales... It'll do well, but it's not going to breaking any records... there's just too much going on this summer...

I agree; I don't think it'll break any records either. But I do think it'll beat Harry Potter and be the third highest grossing film this year.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I agree; I don't think it'll break any records either. But I do think it'll beat Harry Potter and be the third highest grossing film this year.

LMFAO

It'll be lucky to place 5th behind Spidey, Pirates, Shrek, & Potter. I say 5th or 6th is a sure bet. The problem is it's a movie that "in general" will attract a male audience. Spidey, PIrates, & Shrek, and Potter attract both male and female. Transformers will sputter out faster than the 4 above it. 70% second week drop is pretty much assured since it's coming off a Holiday weekend, however it opening a day or two early might mute that drop off as it'll have less to drop off from.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Are you still sticking by this claim? Because it's going to be way off.

It's hard to say exactly how much it'll make obviously but anything over 200 for this film would be amazing. I see a huge drop off in week 2. If it makes 100 million from opening day until the end fo the day on Sunday then 200 is possible but FF is rated PG and right behind it, Die Hard has alot of fans and Willis attracts a broader crowd then CGI toys flying around, and Potter will just own Transformers. I think my 175 is a bit low. I think it can hit 200 maybe slighly higher. So there's my little revision and I'll stick to that however it won't be a cake walk.

 

[Tempest19]

"185-230" with possible bump.

"Day After Tomorrow -> War of the Worlds" with possible bump due to new factor in a summer of sequels.

 

[The Lizard]

TF could maybe beat FF2, but that's a battle that will be won or lost by word-of-mouth.

Harry Potter has nothing to worry about however.

 

[YÅ«gi's BM]

This film will ultimately be a dark horse, like I previously mentioned.