2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[L0ngsh0t]

300 was a fluke, my friend.

Its like saying "If Titanic got 600 million April, Batman can defiently get 600 million in July".

300's are very rare. Its much better to loko at the general consensus of how comic book origin films do.

yeah...except Titanic didn't open in April the crap month of movies, it opened right in the heart of christmas break Dec 19th, and then also happened to win best picture to help its publicity....300 had none of this, it opened during second semester, and was rated R, and grossed 75 million, its no fluke, it was great marketing, which is why I think Iron Man can get 85 opening weekend with great marketing

 

[Excel]

i hope it does...but it wont.

 

[Diablo101]

One thing to know:

Despite what excel said, 2008 is not looking for a 2005 slump. Will it be at the level of 2007? Most likley not. But it won't be at 2005 level. It should be around 2006 level in terms of attendance and gross.

 

[Excel]

i was talking weekend-to-weekend slumps.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I have some predictions.

Hulk 2 will fail because most people hated the first one.

The Dark Knight will make alot of money but it won't make 300 or 400mil and it will do lame numbers overseas like most of the Batman films.

Iron will make between 150 and 185mil in total.

Indy 600 will make more money than it should, maybe 300 to 350mil.

Can't think of anything else but I'll get back to you.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

yeah...except Titanic didn't open in April the crap month of movies, it opened right in the heart of christmas break Dec 19th, and then also happened to win best picture to help its publicity....300 had none of this, it opened during second semester, and was rated R, and grossed 75 million, its no fluke, it was great marketing, which is why I think Iron Man can get 85 opening weekend with great marketing

I think people are being a little overly optimistic. Iron Man will do well, but the only problem is that it's not revolutionary. I can honestly say that I've never before seen anything like 300 or Transformers ever on screen. That's marketing you can't buy. Iron Man is a superhero movie that in the age of numerous superhero movies will sink or swim on its own merits.

 

[DieSmiling]

Anyone who thinks Iron Man will make $250 million is kidding themselves. In a day when superhero movies are churned out at the rate of three per year, we're talking about one of the less popular heroes to get a movie -- Iron Man is up there with Daredevil and Ghost Rider. I was talking to my friends about what movies are coming out next summer (citing TDK, TIH, Indiana Jones IV, and Iron Man) and none of them had even heard of Iron Man. And I quote: "what is that, some made up superhero to capitalize on the fad?" Naturally I explained he was a semi-popular Marvel character, but let's be realistic here... Iron Man would be very, very lucky to get to $200 million.

 

[SuperBatman]

Dude If the Trailer looks good for the Viewing Public I promise you it will make over 250.

 

[DieSmiling]

Dude If the Trailer looks good for the Viewing Public I promise you it will make over 250.

Newsflash: not every movie with a cool trailer grosses $250 million. In fact, very few do.

 

[GoldenAgeHero]

yeah anyone who thinks iron man is going to make over 250 mill is kidding themselves.

 

[BAH HUMBBUG!]

Iron Man may not, but it does have a damn good shot at making 200+ million.

 

[L0ngsh0t]

I think people are being a little overly optimistic. Iron Man will do well, but the only problem is that it's not revolutionary. I can honestly say that I've never before seen anything like 300 or Transformers ever on screen. That's marketing you can't buy. Iron Man is a superhero movie that in the age of numerous superhero movies will sink or swim on its own merits.

i think the comic con footage puts Iron Man as the no. 1 pre release comic book movie to date

and anything that features flying and explosives like they showed will do well, and it could hopefully benifit from word of mout if it is good

 

[EdRyder]

Of course I'd love to see Iron Man do well...
But people need to keep in mind that May will be a harsh month
Iron Man-May 2nd
Narnia2 Prince Caspian -May16th
Indy 4- May 22nd
Speed Racer- May 23rd

Theres also a Day the Earth Stood Still remake rumored to debut in May
And possibly the next Rambo,..

 

[L0ngsh0t]

Of course I'd love to see Iron Man do well...
But people need to keep in mind that May will be a harsh month
Iron Man-May 2nd
Narnia2 Prince Caspian -May16th
Indy 4- May 22nd
Speed Racer- May 23rd

Theres also a Day the Earth Stood Still remake rumored to debut in May
And possibly the next Rambo,..

okay, I agree for the other movies May is a harsh month, what is the lesson SM3 taught us

May 2nd, there is nothing else playing, currently with the schedule you have laid out there isn't anything till the 16th, Iron Man has 2 whole weeks to live fat....if it has a good trailer its gunna have a good opening weekend, and it has plenty of breathing room for positive word of mouth to give it a strong second week

 

[Hunter Rider]

Except for Iron Man and a bit of Caspian we have seen no footage of any of these movies, just a few stills so it's hard to say at this stage, that's why i haven't really made any predictions as there is a lot still to see before guessing.......I do think Bond 22 and Potter 6 will do the best international numbers though with Potter probably being the total combined top film of 2008.

 

[EdRyder]

Bond 22 is also rumored to open around the 3rd ,4th of May.You have to treat that type of info with a grain of salt as they haven't even begun filming yet.All the better for Iron Man tho if its given that much breathing room

 

[GoldenAgeHero]

okay, I agree for the other movies May is a harsh month, what is the lesson SM3 taught us

May 2nd, there is nothing else playing, currently with the schedule you have laid out there isn't anything till the 16th, Iron Man has 2 whole weeks to live fat....if it has a good trailer its gunna have a good opening weekend, and it has plenty of breathing room for positive word of mouth to give it a strong second week

...

 

[Hunter Rider]

Bond 22 is also rumored to open around the 3rd ,4th of May.You have to treat that type of info with a grain of salt as they haven't even begun filming yet.All the better for Iron Man tho if its given that much breathing room

Bond opens in November, that May stuff was called off months ago.

 

[Excel]

it was originally supposed to come this november...for "007 in 07"

 

[L0ngsh0t]

...

I would say rarely does a movie with a sweet trailer bomb on opening weekend, at worst it will have a strong opening weekend and plummet after

 

[Excel]

the hulk...

 

[lollycop]

I think Iron Man will make no more then 200 mil, well thats it for me tonight. I got a big day tomarow, I have to get my American Werewolf In London Toy tomarow.

 

[deathshead2]

I don't see why Iron man can't make alot of money. If anything the public will think its a new idea it doesn't matter if they heard about him or not. besides look at transformers. A year before this movie came out I remember talking about it and pretty much everyone in my highschool kept calling it gayassrobots. But now since it came out people keep coming up to me going that transformers was awesome. So Iron man can pretty much make alot of money, but of course we won't know till 08.

 

[Excel]

Updated lists.

Valkeryie moves from 8/8 to 6/27.

This move will make it a bit more high profile...It should open to low 20's, and with July 4th in its second weekend, see a good hold.

VALKERYIE: 24 million opening weekend, 16 million 2d weekend....100-110 total.

 

[Excel]

I don't see why Iron man can't make alot of money. If anything the public will think its a new idea it doesn't matter if they heard about him or not. besides look at transformers. A year before this movie came out I remember talking about it and pretty much everyone in my highschool kept calling it gayassrobots. But now since it came out people keep coming up to me going that transformers was awesome. So Iron man can pretty much make alot of money, but of course we won't know till 08.

That is the point. This isnt the 90's. The public doesnt rush out for new ideas. To garner mass hype while not being a sequel, you need to be of a famous origin in the public. Iron Mans not. Only a % of comic fans know him, seeing as about 3-4% of the general public reads comic books...thats a % of 3-4%. Word, not a lot.