2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[Booznian]

Dark Knight/Harry Potter HBP 2008.

 

[Tempest19]

I'll expand on that....

Whereas Transformers is known to the mass public. Many many guys grew up playing with Transformers toys, even if they didn't catch the cartoon. There are many who watched the 80s cartoon and it was a hit series in it's time and is still considered to be a hit. The cartoons of "transforming" have been around for a long time, whereas I didn't catch Transformers- I wasn't around back then- I did catch Beast Wars.

To put a long story short- the public KNOWS about Transformers. It wasn't an unknown property and don't know why some people think that it was. It was anything but unknown.

 

[Tempest19]

Why I believe IJ will be #1

1. It's an Indiana Jones
2. Steven Spielberg is back, it's going to be around the same level as the other Indiana Jones films.
3. Harrison Ford still knows how to kick some serious ass. Although it's not that great of a film, check out the final action sequence of 'Firewall' and tell me he doesn't have it.
4. Shia LeBeuf. One of the top young actors today, not only is he a great actor that is going places, he's one of the "it" teen celebs. Especially after this summer. Look at how 'Transformers' kicked ass at box office, similarly with Disturbia. So I think it's easy to say his name attached to a project= $$$ now.
5. A good ol' action science fiction adventure like no other film has delivered on for YEARS! It's time to resurrect the champ.

 

[Symbiotic]

Next year belongs to The Knight.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

C'mon, no one actually thinks TDK can win even the domestic box office with a Harry Potter movie out next year, right? I'll give it highest grossing superhero flick next year of course (even though I'm looking forward to both TIH and IR more) given how unexpectedly well BB did. But this is Potter. Not having anymore books left may even help the movie as there won't be anything to steal the fans time and at the same time giving them the only thing they got left in that universe.

 

[Hush]

I think that The Dark Knight is going own the sumer for good,maybe the year.
Its a sequale to an amazing film that was widely accepted by the general viewing public as a return to Batman. It also has The Joker going for it most people want to see if Heath can top Nicholson this movie has so much draw its incredible.

 

[Galactus]

Worldwide: Harry Potter (yeah, a kinda boring prediction, but how can you guess otherwise?) I think Indiana Jones and Narnia will own the summer. The Dark Knight might be a contender domestically, but not worldwide. Personally I can see movies like the new Bond-movie and Angels & Demons also beating The Dark Knight worldwide. But then again, I've been wrong a lot of times before...

 

[GoldenAgeHero]

TDK will not be the number 1 movie of the year or even summer next year,ya'll fanboys need to get over yourselves.

 

[Jick]

C'mon, no one actually thinks TDK can win even the domestic box office with a Harry Potter movie out next year, right? I'll give it highest grossing superhero flick next year of course (even though I'm looking forward to both TIH and IR more) given how unexpectedly well BB did. But this is Potter. Not having anymore books left may even help the movie as there won't be anything to steal the fans time and at the same time giving them the only thing they got left in that universe.

huh?
but TDK is in July.
HP6 is only in November. there's a huge difference.
and the others super hero movies won't interfere in the performance of TDK. see:
Iron Man is in May, in the beginning of May. Hulk is in June, and TDK is only a month ahead, July. so, there is no blockbuster movie to compete with TDK.
seeing this, TDK may be really successful at the box-office.

 

[Reek]

Early predictions...top 15...not too huge after this year with 5 300 million dollar hits.

1. Indiana Jones - 325 million
2. Harry Potter-315 million
3. The Dark Knight - 290 million
4. Narnia - 265 million
5. Wall-e - 250 million
6. Bedtime Stories- 240 million
7. Madagascar 2- 225 million
8. Angels and Demons - 210 million
9. Bond 22- 200 million
10. Iron Man - 180 million
11. Horton Hears A who - 155 million
12. John Hancock- 155 million
13. Get Smart: 145
14. The Incredible Hulk - 140 million
15. The Wolfman - 125 million


Top 15 opening weekends...no real records going down...

1. Harry Potter - 115 million
2. The Dark Knight - 105 million
3. Indiana Jones- 100 million (opens on a Thursday), 135 4 day, 160 5 day
4. Narnia - 85 million
5. Wall-e - 65
7. Iron Man- 60 million
8. Bond 22- 55 million
9. Mummy 3: 52 million
10. Madagascar 2- 50 million
11. The Incredible Hulk - 48 million
12. Bedtime Stories - 47 million
13. Get Smart - 45 million
14. Angels and Demons - 45 million
15. Speed Racer: 45 millon

will make 300. each...harry potter will dominate. come on, its movie 6 of 7....

 

[Tempest19]

I don't know about Bond getting 300, is that even possible? I thought Casino Royale was the top grossing Bond movie in recent years alone. So, I don't think it will make that huge of a leap to become a 300 mil film. 200 mill is good and that is a good jump from CR actually.

 

[Reek]

casino royale, and daniel craig were regarded so well, why not? daniel craig is arguably the best bond yet, and CR was arguably the best bond yet...so a sequel could infact break 300...

 

[Reek]

to add to that, Indy....i think thats being completely overrated already. after 'Last Crusade', its like making a 4th Matrix movie...POINTLESS. a 4th LOTR movie...POINTLESS. theres no need for more indy...and comon, be honest with yourselves, no demand for a sequel.

 

[Tempest19]

The Indy film is going to be great man, even in your post above you stated it's going to be the 300 mil film. Or are you going back on that now for some reason?

Point is though, Casino Royale brought in only 167 mil. It is one of the highest grossing recent Bond films as well... that's why I don't see how you're coming up with 300 mil. Would I like that? Fck yeah man, Bond deserves that much! But, has any sequel really made that big of a jump? 133 mil jump. Has any film ever done that?

Would I like it to? Fck yeah man! Just don't know if a 133 mil jump is possible, as said I don't think any film has ever had the huge of a jump.

 

[Reek]

IMO, with the new bond film, bond has upgraded to new audiences, rebooting its franchise...Die another Day wasnt the movie that killed it, but it finished its funeral... i just know how highly regarded CR was among college students, which I am, and i think it can gross 300 million if its done right...honestly...250, cause what movie is done right these days? ill admit, my 300 predictions were hopes...but CR sequel DESERVES 300 like u said. I THINK/HOPE, it makes 300. which as you said, it damn well should.

but regarding Indy... the last movie was in 1989, and by drinking from the Holy Grail, he was immortal. this is 2007...when it comes out,2008, 19 years later. and your gonna look at an old ass Harrison Ford. it shoulda ended at his Last Crusade...granted it could be fun to watch, but making 300 mil? i dont know, all his fans have aged 19 years. im about to be 22, and i love the indy movies, i watched em while i was young. but i honestly dont know about a 4th movie. im sure other people my age are thinking the same way. unless Lucas, Spielberg, and Ford, pull something out of their asses, im not convinced. Lucas has done the SW prequels...uh crap....Ford has down...Firewall??? come on..

 

[Tempest19]

250 I could definitely agree withm seems more plausible. And as a fellow college student (19), Casino Royale was definitely the best Bond film in a LONG TIME and definitely- without a doubt in my mind- one of the BEST blockbusters of the past couple of years.

The prequels- I think- was our only glance at George Lucas directing other than American Graffiti. Maybe he's just not a great director? Spielberg, however, is primarily a director and even films that are just "okay" by his standards are still great and better than half of the other movies out there, imo. Besides the point- the SW films did great at box office regardless- okay, maybe not Attack, but definitely Phantom and Sith. And yeah Harrison Ford's recent films haven't been that good, but that's largely due to the source material itself rather than him- what those films do show us though is that he's still "physically fit" (he didn't use a stunt double in Firewall- especially the last fight sequence- according to Bettany).

 

[Reek]

Revenge of the Sith would make a ton of money if Carrot Top was its star actor. it was the final star wars movie, Why darth vader became darth vader... you hit the nail on the head, AOTC was the weakest and for good reason..it wasnt the first prequel, TPM, and not the final, RotS...so of course they did good box office...everyone who has a brain wanted to see RotS...and EVERYONE, Ill repeat, EVERYONE wanted to see TPM...and the AOTC came out...but still..everyone wanted to see Darth V, become Darth V.

 

[Reek]

back to indy...it feels to me like its a dead franchise...its BY NO MEANS Star Wars and cant continue its glory...to me, its like making a godfather part 4, pointless.

 

[Tempest19]

I'll give you that there isn't a key purpose of bringing it back. But, it will probably still be a good Indy film and most importantly to the studio- make a **** load of money (which is probably one of the reasons they brought it back?)

They have been working on a LONG time to perfect the screenplay, so I have no reason in the world to doubt that it will be another great Indiana Jones film. Because if they just wanted some random Indiana Jones flick they could have picked one of the previous screenplays and alas they chose to wait to find "the one."

EDIT: Btw, you can now find the screenplays for the possible fourth Indiana Jones films online at simplyscripts.com.

 

[Reek]

true it is a reason its being brought back...but making it the #1 movie is a tough statement. Harry Potter is tough to beat, closing in on its end...and seeing how i havent seen the type of hype for Indy 4 as i have....well...anything...no movie geek like ourselves is even talking about it....believe me, if people were like me, Indy would make 300, and be #1 of 2008. but it just aint gone happen. 2008 belongs to Harry Potter and The Dark Knight. think about it, hp6 is the second to last story. with the last story just being released EVERYONE, including non readers want to see this s*** go down. and The Dark Knight...Batman Begins is one of the most highly regarded comic films of all time...and one of the most underrated movies in recent memory...and its sequel is coming out, with a questionable joker...giving a quote on quote (from other actors) and "Unbelievable" performance...

im twice as pumped for HP6 and TDK then Indy 4. butttt...im pumped about indy 4.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

You just have to realize how HUGE getting $300M is. It's much harder than Spider-Man makes it look. A $300M movie isn't just good or even great. It infects the entire country with it's buzz and it lasts into it's sequels. Just consider this: Harry Potter, the second highest (soon to be first with the next movie) grossing film franchise in history has only hit the $300M mark once domestically in 5 movies and it has as wide a range an audience as it gets. The highest grossing spy flick ever is Mission Impossible 2 with $215M. Bond just isn't in a moneymaking genre and praise can only take you so far in the box office.

 

[Tempest19]

I'm actually alot more pumped up for Indy and TDK. Personally I don't see what the big deal is about Potter, but I've always been more of a Narnia guy.

It is also hard to gauge where exactly it will wind up. Right now hardly anyone outside of the net knows about Indiana Jones 4. Hell, I think the teaser trailer will even surprise many people. TDK and Potter are OBVIOUS sequels, Indy4- not many see another Indy movie coming.

The teaser is going to be the gauge, if we get near a SW1 level hype about the teaser that tells us we're going to be in for a HUGE come-back of resurrecting one of the greatest cinematic champs.

It's Indiana Jones. He's a cinematic icon. There's a reason why us film-fans respect him and see him making that much dude and that's because he's Americana. We have the original crew returning, including the original director which is BIG (this is the first come back with the original DIRECTOR) , a screenplay years in the making guaranteeing that this film will most likely rock, Spielberg's name attached and Shia's name attached. Who is a major star now in his own right, especially after Transformers. Only way I don't see this film making huge numbers is if it's a disaster, which imo is highly doubtful considering the amount of work that's been put into it.

Batman I would love see make it to 300 mil, but similarly to Bond- that's not going to be an easy feat. That's a 100 mil leap! What other film has done that before? Personally I'm looking at a definite 250 with possible 290 no more than that though. 290 is going to be a struggle as is, as said before what other film has ever jumped that high? I can't name one personally.

Imo, the cards are lined up more for Potter and Indy. Potter due to already proving that it can get around 300. And Indy due to resurrecting one of the key film icons.

Indy isn't as big as Star Wars, that's granted. But, it is definitely up there.

But, that said it's still possible for Indy and TDK to run neck-to-neck because both of their presumed lowest possible box office take is 250 mil. Which one makes more than that is really up for grabs. TDK does have the best release date out of any summer film though.

 

[Tempest19]

You just have to realize how HUGE getting $300M is. It's much harder than Spider-Man makes it look. A $300M movie isn't just good or even great. It infects the entire country with it's buzz and it lasts into it's sequels. Just consider this: Harry Potter, the second highest (soon to be first with the next movie) grossing film franchise in history has only hit the $300M mark once domestically in 5 movies and it has as wide a range an audience as it gets. The highest grossing spy flick ever is Mission Impossible 2 with $215M. Bond just isn't in a moneymaking genre and praise can only take you so far in the box office.

Dude, insane Potter fan, Excel and I already told you that five of Bond's best films inflated (from the old days) put together would beat Potter's ass.

Recently Bond has faltered, yes that's true, but inflation-wise HP will always be far from #1.

Tickets are now 6 bucks, back in the day they were only 70 cents (alot to the people back then, but nothing to the people now)

But, I'll let Excel embarress you again, I'm off to bed.

Potter has a definitive end. Bond doesn't. I'd say that gives Bond the longevity advantage. But stack up the best 5 Bond films with inflation and I'm sure it doesn't come close to what Potter has done. Bond's strength as a franchise is in it's number of films alone.

yes it does. Kills it, actually. Potter has much more im common with star wars...its a huge worldwide phenominon. It wont just go away. Potter will always be huge, even 20-30 years after the final films out.

Interesting to note after that you vanished out of thin air, so if you're back I'll just let Excel continue his ass whooping.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

I think the Batman franchise suffers the same "weakness" as Bond. It's just not awing to people. Batman Begins was an amazing movie but there're just no sequences that're jaw-dropping simply because he doesn't have powers. All you'll ever get is hand-to-hand combat and car chases. He's pretty much Bond in a costume. There's no fantasy to him and I'm afraid that's an essential to major box office success.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

and how was that a killing/ass whooping? Lets take inflation and the franchise factor out of it and only cite their current movies. Order of the Pheonix: $280M. Casino Royale: $160M. Potter simply has a wider appeal that Bond will never have because of their target audience. Family movies may not be of the highest quality but they're certainly the highest at the box office. And my being a Potter fan has nothing to do with that quoted post. Potter will be the highest grossing franchise after the next movie. That's a fact. Even with inflation they're amazing numbers for 5 movies, not to mention the consistency in quality which Bond has lacked.