2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[BAH HUMBBUG!]

Does anyone have the total gross for the Box Office in 2006 and how much 2007 has made so far?

 

[strikezone89]

2007 was the year of the sequels

 

[Excel]

Does anyone have the total gross for the Box Office in 2006 and how much 2007 has made so far?

http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/

 

[BAH HUMBBUG!]

Thank you sir

 

[Excel]

For those doubting the Dark Knight, there is now no mistake...mid-late July release dates work the best for big blockbusters because unlike May and June, in July you can stgll get huge opening but some big old legs...

case in point. Harry potter & The Order of The Phoenix is not the best of series, everybody will agree. Aftetr its 40 million 5 day take, most expected a total of about 270-275. But loko at now.

Its is heaed for 292 million+ in the us and an addittional 650 million+ overseas, easily the 2nd biggest of the series since the original. Why?

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=harrypotter5.htm

Look at the legs its getting.

Same thing happened with Pirates 2 last year; an ordinarily veryfrontloaded got great legs on decent word of mouth. In 2005, Chalrie and the Chocolate factory got incredible legs on great word of mouth. Ditto Spidey 3 in 2004, Pirates in 2003.

Unless TDK sees a huge drop off in quality, it should be getting a 3.0 muliplier just due to the July and August weekdays...so if it gets 100 million opening weekend...300 million+ total is in store.

 

[Galactus]

2007 was the year of the sequels

Isn't every year "the year of sequels" these days?

 

[Excel]

http://www.yahoo.com/

'Batman' fever

The latest Batman film, "The Dark Knight," is the most-searched trailer on the web.

^TDK is the most searched trailer on the net by FAR...yet its a year away! Imagine when theres tv spots and trailers everywhere....

 

[Excel]

Wolfman moves out of holidays and startrek opens christmas day

look for a 90-100 millionish total for st; it would be much lower but I have a lot of faith in Abrams to make this cool and mainstream; and im no no star trek fan.

 

[Excel]

bump

 

[Excel]

UPDATED list of big films:

1/11 - 27 Dresses

1/18 - Cloverfield

2/1 - Hannah Montana

2/8 - Fools Gold

2/29 - Semi-Pro

3/7 - 10,000 B.C.

3/14 - Horton Hears a Who

5/2 - Iron Man

5/9 - Speed Racer

5/16 - The Chronicles of Narnia

5/22 -Indiana Jones (opens on a Thursday)

5/30 - Starship Dave, Sex and The City Movie, Forgetting Sarah Marshall

6/6 - Kung Fu Panda, Dont mess with Zohan

6/13 - The Incredible Hulk, The Happening

6/20 - Get Smart, The Love Guru

6/27 - Wall-e, Wanted,

7/2 - Hancock

7/11 - Tropic Thunder

7/18 - The Dark knight, Mama Mia

7/25 - Step Brothers

8/1 - The Mummy 3

8/8 - Eagles Eye

8/15 - Dragonball

10/3 - Valkyrie

11/7 - Bond 22, Madagascar 2

11/14 - Four Christmass

11/21 - Harry Potter

12/12 - The Day The Earth Stood Still, Seven Pounds

12/25 - Bedtime Stories, Star Trek

 

[Hunter Rider]

Where's The international on the list ?

7/2 - Hancock

This is the one to watch IMO

 

[Hush]

Looks like a good year but i want only to see a few.

 

[Excel]

Updated Predictions...


1/18 - Cloverfield - 34/72
-Said it way back in July, they released the trailer way too early and most public buzz has been lost.


2/1 - Hannah Montana -43/120
-Presales are obnoxious, girls ages 8-15 will flood this movie. Big old hit up coming.


2/8 - Fools Gold - 28/95
-Decent trailer, cast, and crew should mean decent gross.


2/29 - Semi-Pro - 34/105
-Ferrill is strong as ever and the trailer kicks.


5/2 - Iron Man - 55/180
-It should open well enough due to big Paramount campaign and being marketable, but dont be fooled. This isnt even Paramnounts main film of MAY-thats Indy-let alone 2008. Dont expect some balls to wall Spiderman 3/Superman Returns sized marketing push. BUT being marketable will get it a good opening and it should get decent legs for a comic book film in May it isnt that well known.


5/16 - The Chronicles of Narnia - 90/265
-What else is there to say? The other cleaned up with holidays legs that will be gone here-opposite actually, as Indiana Jones will not only steal 3/4's the media coverage, buzz, and general film talk for all May (and all pre-july4th summer movies, for that matter) which will hurts its opening, but it'll have its legs rocked by it too. Dont see a multiplier over 3 for this one, though itll still get 90 million opening weekend due to its fanbase, and the first one opened well over expectations and wasnt the biggest event movie either as KONG stole all the buzz and talk.


5/22 -Indiana Jones (opens on a Thursday) - 175 5-day, 315 total
-47 on Thursday, 103 weekend, 25 on Monday will be good for the biggest 5 day haul in movie History. Its Indiana Jones return,and like the return of the Matrix in 2003 or the return of Star Wars in 1999, it's sure to be a massive public event. An enormous fanbase spanning all types audiences all eagerly awaiting this, some for nearly 20 years. With Lucas films marketing team behind this, this will be a buzz and hype machine like we havent seen since Revenge of the Sith. This WILL break the 5 day record set by Sith and has a shot at Thursday record of 50 million, but I dont see it being quite that high. The waiting on releasing footage backfired for Pirates 3, but itll benifit this as long as it meets expectations, which are expectedly huge.


6/13 - The Incredible Hulk - 45/120
The Happening - 33/110
-The Hulk looks to be what the first film shoulda been, too bad the buzz and anticipation is not nearly as high as that films was. I think because its the Hulk and will be marketable, itll manage a 45 million opening weekend, a step down from the previous film (a BIG one too if you factor in inflation) but better word of mouth will make it close in total.

-The Happening is by M. night, who is poison right now. But, having read the script...its a marketable concept that brings him back to his eerie, disturbing film roots and that will bring in audiences opening weekend. Legs...I dunno about.


6/20 - Get Smart - 46/150
-Carrels BIG break. This is a large scale film that will have largescale success. The early teaser is a crowd favorite as is Steve Carrel. Add in solid name slike The Rock and Anne Hatheway, this is an easy sell and possible big break out.


6/27 - Wall-e - 65/280
-After 2 underpreformers, this a return to form for Pixar. Look for ridiculous word of mouth and reviews and a strong marketing campaign to power this baby.

7/2 - Hancock -95 5-day, 170 total
-The trailer not only unsold me, but I think itll do less then 170 really. The horrible lines and cgi aside, they sold it was a superhero comedy, a spoof persay. Thats a genre waiting to explode, and add Will Smith and it would be HUGE. Except the film is a drama, not a comedy. Word of mouth is not going to be good if the films marketing continues to be misleading. That said, I see a superman returns sized opening but worse legs.


7/18 - The Dark knight -100/290
-Post Indiana Jones, all film tlak to sworm to this. There are no big blockbusters in June or early July and this will pounce in the lack of monster hits ala Pirates 2. But this really could be the lowest limit. Buzz for this seems to be growing unusually easy, and I am not saying that as a fan. The first joker pic, first batman pic, and now first trailer have all been prominetly featured on the frontpage of YAHOO.COM upon release, and it is also the most searched film of 2008 on the net. And now, the tralier has been with enormous praise. Add in the smaller slate before it, and opening is huge. 300 million is in the relm as well thanks a wisely chosen release date in Mid July, which has gotten great legs for other word of mouth blockbusters such as the first 2 pirate films, Harry Potter 5, Transformers, the Bourne Ultimatum, and other would be frontloaded sequels.


8/1 - The Mummy 3 - 42/115
-Not feeling this one it should have opened instead of Van Helsing in May of 2004. Its four years too late and the loss of the films creator (Stephon Sommers) and most accomplished star (Rachel Wiezc) and addition of Rob Cohen (Stealth) having me thinking the quality is gonna take a big tumble down from RETURNS, if thats even possible to some. Look for an ok opening and atrocious word of mouth. This should be opening in Speed Racers spot.


10/3 - Valkyrie
-The films moved dates 3 times and already has a trailer out despite being 10 months away, and i expect it to move again. It looks very good and has star power, look out for a move to December 2008-perhaps December 5th-to capitolize on star power and good word of mouth and pump award season buzz.


11/7 - Bond 22 - 55/195
-Casino Royale brought Bond back with a Bang, look for his return to be much louder, and with the return of screenwriter Paul Hagis and star Daniel Craig, just as good.


11/14 - Four Christmas's - 40/150
-The holidays big holiday crowd pleaser. Vaughn with a female partner is abig draw, as is Reese in this sort of film.


11/21 - Harry Potter - 115/315
-Potter opened to 45 million on a Wednesday in July, this film will def. break that in December. With Thanksgiving and holiday legs, no way multiplier is below 2.6, all that needed is for 300 million total.Giving that HP4 had a multiplier of 2.84 and COS had 2.97, 300 is certain. I would expect 2.7 to 2.75, or a total around 310-315.


12/12 -Seven Pounds-29/145
-Smith is the biggest draw ever right now, I am legend wouldnt have topped 40 million with any other actor not even Hanks or Cruise. Pursuit of Happyness proved his appeal to mainstream America outside of blockbuster films, and this will reinforce that.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I think you are wrong about Hancock and overestimate TDK but well written and interesting post Excel. What is your take for Eagle Eye ?

 

[Excel]

TDK...If BB opened on a Friday, its opening weekend would gave been 58-60 million. That was with, mind you, crap marketing and hate from B&R.

X2 opened 60% higher than X2. X1 was frontloaded, Batman Begisn wasn't, so that 60% increase would be higher because xmen had more people go see in its opening weekend, while Begins was more spread out.

59+60% is 94.4 million, and for a fandriven film like Batman, its going to open big. 94 million, that factor this so far has had good marketing compared to Batmans bad one...I'd say that 70%. Then that it has no hate, rather huge anticipation...I say 75%.

59+75% is 104. I think that the lack of a huge media frenzy film between Indy and Batman will give it a little extra UMPH on opening weekend like American Gangster, I am Legend, Spidey 3, and Transformer all benfited from. Legs...mid Julys perfect. Its Mon-Thur take is as big as its weekend...so if it went

90 opening weekend
38 weekdays
40 2nd weekend
22 weekdays
23 3rd weekend
13 weekdays
14 4th weekend
8 weekdays
8 5th weekend

Thats the minimum for the opening weekend really, and that is already a total 256, heading for atleast 280. Add in Imax too...with a bigger opening, thats even more...

Hancock...I mean, if the film actually was a big budget superhero spoof starring will smith, id predict low 200's. But it isnt, the script review all say its dramatic...its a missell.

Eagles Eeye depends on marketing. If its as good as Suburbias was, itll do 90-100 in August.

 

[mikeyh89]

I loved reading your predictions, Excel.

Also, I think I read High School Musical 3 will be out in October next year (in theaters). I get the feeling that'll either be really big considering how huge it is on TV and just in general, or it won't fair as well as expected. I'm leaning towards the former though.

And what is Fool's Gold? I don't think I have heard of that one. I'll have to find a trailer.

 

[Spider-Vader]

HSM 3 won't do well in theaters because parents don't want to watch that crap.

Iron Man- I see Iron Man doing very good, it's a new super hero franchise opening. Those always do good. #3 domestic, #4 or 5 world wide.

The Dark Knight-I think TDK will do tons better than BB, maybe second domestic & third world wide.

Indiana Jones & KOTCS-Indiana Jones IV will probably be #1 domestic & #2 world wide

Harry Potter VI- I say #1 world wide, # 4 domestic. HP 7 will be #1 both world wide & domestic, whenever that's released.

Incredible Hulk- I really don't see this doing good, unless it has good word of mouth.

 

[Hunter Rider]

All those numbers are if everything goes like mathematical clockwork, which they rarely do, i seriously doubt TDK will open anywhere near as large as $90M +.

Hancock is not miss sold since it has only had one trailer. If you mix both comedic and dramatic elements you will get much stronger value across the demo's.

 

[Warhammer]

Summer 2007:

Personally, I see Hancock, Indiana Jones 4, The Dark Knight or Prince Caspian having spots in the Top 5 of the summer. Iron Man, Wall-E, and Get Smart are the wild cards.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

I honestly don't get how people think TDk is going to explode(I'll never say that in the Batman forums ). The movie has the hype for the 250 plus range, but the more adult orientation is going to cut the gross back down to BB levels without being able to bring little kids in. 210-220.

Hancock, I just don't know.

Star Trek, I hope it's able to bring in 150 plus, but I just don't know if the franchise can attract enough non-Trekkies to make it profitable.

Iron Man- 190ish max. Enough to make a sequel.

Prince Caspian- It has the build in audience from the first one so it'll make the money to make the franchise super profitable.

Indy 4- That's the wild card. Is there still enough interest(National Treasure is a modern day/crappy substitute for Indy) or is he going to run on the nostalgia factor and take the summer. I doubt it, but it wouldn't surprise me after this past summer.

Speed Racer- Another wild card. It'll either flop or blow past 150 million on the appeal of kids alone.

Wall E- Pixar isn't invincible(Rat as great as it was didn't surpass the previous films) but I need to see more of this movie to decide.

 

[Excel]

All those numbers are if everything goes like mathematical clockwork, which they rarely do, i seriously doubt TDK will open anywhere near as large as $90M +.

Hancock is not miss sold since it has only had one trailer. If you mix both comedic and dramatic elements you will get much stronger value across the demo's.

its 1 trailer; to get a better guage of how itll be marketed ill wait for the super bowl spot. Id say Hancock and Get Smart would be my outside breakout picks.

And honestly...90 million isnt all that high anymore.

 

[Excel]

Ill say Cloverfield opens to 40-42 million over the 4 da yweekend and around 31-33 for 28 Dresses.

 

[Reek]

Where's The international on the list ?



This is the one to watch IMO

its def in my top 5...

1.TDK
2.HBP
3. Indy 4
4. Hancock
5. theres a few...

i hope hancock does good at the box office, you know when a full trailer will be out?

 

[Reek]

Ironman is 2008's 'ghostrider'.

anyone who thinks TDK wont rule the summer needs to take a look at some polls, not only on SHH but other polls, there was one on yahoo for instance, but TDK is by far the most anticipated as of right now.

however, there have yet to be full trailers for hulk, hancock, wall-e, etc...

for all we know wall-e could take the summer seeing as how well shrek 3 did last year.

 

[GhostPoet]

I hope Cloverfield does well. I haven't seen anything except the ads (which don't show anything)
I'm actually MORE excited for it because I have no idea what the creatures look like...I've been able to resist ALL spoilers. It's a great feeling.