2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[Jick]

You have the wrong WB movie. Harry Potter maybe, TDK? not a chance in hell.

maybe 550 million then?

People on these boards like to ignore reality because they don't like someone or something. Narnia 2 will be huge, you can't discount the power of the orignal and I agree with your feeling about Hancock, that movie could be huge, and I think that it does have a good chance of besting TDK, it will easily win overseas because Batman isn't that popular.

Batman just isn't more popular than Spider-Man and Superman. I know Smith brings a lot, but I can't see Hancock doing more than TDK.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I can, I think that people are way overpredicting TDK and are overpredicting it even more because of Ledger's tragic passing.

I think the movie will be lucky to make 450mil worldwide. That would be an awesome gross, provided the movie didn't cost 250mil to produce.

 

[Figs]

^I can, I think that people are way overpredicting TDK and are overpredicting it even more because of Ledger's tragic passing.

I think the movie will be lucky to make 450mil worldwide. That would be an awsome gross, provided the movie didn't cost 250mil to produce.

So you think Hancock will make more than TDK this year?

 

[cookiva]

Will Smith always does great overseas. I could see Hancock getting over 500mil like I am Legend has done worldwide. Just because we all want TDK to make hundreds of millions doesnt mean it will make more than films like Narnia.

 

[Excel]

Funny that almost no one have Narnia on their lists. I mean, the first one did better than Harry Potter domestically in 2005 and ended up with over $740 million worldwide. My personal feeling is that worldwide Batman, or any other superhero movie this year, won't have a chance against Narnia.

The problem is that Narnia only made so much because of when it opened. After dropping hard due to Kong, it had amazing legs due to christmas, new years, and extremely weak january as always. This time its opposite. Not only will it drop hard in its 2nd weak against Indiana Jones, but then June is full of big hits. Itll open well, but it wont have nearly good enough legs to top the 290 the first made. I'd go with 260 in the u.s. and about 350 overseas-Indiana Jones is even bigger overseas and it opens 6 days later. This wasvery poor date choosing, had they stuck it in December of 2008 it woulda done 300 million+.

And (call me crazy if you like) I have this feeling that Hancock (with the box office power of Will Smith) could end being superhero movie number one. Especially on the international market, maybe worldwide.

Ill wait for the final trailer. The potential there but i dont see anything over 200 million based off what I saw...I am Legend exploded due to a very weak market place led to mass interest in the next big film; it was perfect timing.l No doubt this will be big but not that huge. 100 5 day ish and about 180 total.

Batman just isn't more popular than Spider-Man and Superman.

Ummm....yes he is. He is a lot more popular than Superman, Spidey sthat tough. Spiderman is def. more popular with children but Batman owns with people 10-40. Older audiences base what they see off reviews.

There is a scenario, not saying its likely, but its there, that TDK can outgross Spidey 3, atleast in the u.s. Either way I can gaurentee Spidey 3 does less than TDK does in states.

Heres the deal. After Indiana Jones, June lacks any major event films. GET SMART or HULK MAY top 50, but thats it. Hancock will do well obviously, but what happened with I am Legend is what will happen with TDK. All the buzz, hype ect. will build to the next big event film after Indiana Jones.

It woulda cleared 90 million 3 day easily, probably 100, based souly off the demand for a big event film and the originals word of mouth. Im not saying that as a dan and dont get me wrong, 100 million 3 day is not THAT much oney any more.

Heres where Heaths death may benefit the film at the box office.

Its always been race between Batman and Indiana Jones to be most hyped or talked about film of next summer with many myself included picking Indiana Jones to win, but Heaths death gives Batman the obvious victory. Because thats the beauty of being an established franchise. This works for all sequels-becuase the audience is already sold on the film due its preddessor (in this case, Batman Begins) they only need to hear about the new film to have interest. Hearing about is known as AWARENESS. Heaths death has given TDK an absolutly ridiculous amount of awareness so early on.

Make no mistake, for most big comic book films, only comic book fans really know about the film or when i comes out until the final month when the major marketing push.

Who in the US. doesnt know about the dark knight now? I would say 90% of the people who know Heath Ledger died are aware of this film now, which is more people then any of last years films-and I mean ALL OF THEM-knew about. Spidey 3, Pirates transformers you name it. TDK is just as known if not not more known by the public then ALL OF THEM. That is facting in obviously the trailer that aired with the 250 million hit I AM LEGEND. Having that many people know about it...and having spent bout 5% of their marketing budget puts Warners in an incredibly enviable situation. OBVIOUSLY Heaths death sucks and everything, but this if just from a financial stand point.

Now they can sit back and unload all that money in June and July because Heaths death has done more than anythign could have done. Its very very very very sad and tragic, but it remains.

Thats 100 million based on what we thought would happen. Now that so many know about it...I dunno what to predict, however just say you heard it first. Dont be shocked if TDK tops Pirates 2 opening weekend, ok? I would say in all honesty, no fanboyism included, tdks minimum opening weekend right now is 120 million. W.B. would have to try to make it open below that because buzz, interest ect. is so damn high which means it could very well open less than 120 million, but it is unlikely.

And of course, if the film is good and gets good word of mouth, now way its multiplier would be below the 2.8 nessecary to topple spideys 337 million.

anyone think that TDK could hit 900 millions worldwide?

I mean, the hype is huge, the marketing even bigger, and now with Heath's death, they got free popularization of the movie. it would be a big surprise for me, but still

Haha, no. No way. It might be able to get 600 million at the very very bes but id say look for 500-550.

 

[cookiva]

Ummm....yes he is. He is a lot more popular than Superman, Spidey sthat tough. Spiderman is def. more popular with children but Batman owns with people 10-40. Older audiences base what they see off reviews.

Ha. Whatever. Spiderman and Superman are the two characters that everyone in the WORLD knows. Sure, Batman is huge, but Spiderman and Superman are bigger.

 

[Excel]

Superman is far and away the most famous but sorry he aint nearly the most popular.

 

[cookiva]

Superman is far and away the most famous but sorry he aint nearly the most popular.

Oh, thats why the Superman symbol is the most recognized symbol in all of pop culture. Thats why people in 3rd world countries know him. Being famous goes hand in hand with popularity. You cant be popular without being famous.

 

[Figs]

Will Smith always does great overseas. I could see Hancock getting over 500mil like I am Legend has done worldwide. Just because we all want TDK to make hundreds of millions doesnt mean it will make more than films like Narnia.

I know TDK won't make more than films like Narnia, Potter, or Indiana Jones but I think even with Will Smith's drawing power it will still do better than Hancock.

To me it's just another My Super Ex Girlfriend. Made up by Hollywood superhero films always pale in comparison to the real deal.

 

[Figs]

Oh, thats why the Superman symbol is the most recognized symbol in all of pop culture. Thats why people in 3rd world countries know him. Being famous goes hand in hand with popularity. You cant be popular without being famous.

With that logic I guess the Swastika and the Nazis were popular amongst the majority.

According to reports in the past few years, Mario owns all anyways.

 

[cookiva]

With that logic I guess the Swastika and the Nazis were popular amongst the majority.

No, not at all what I said. I didnt say that every famous thing is popular. I said popularity goes hand in hand with being famous. Try using COMMON SENSE when reading on a public forum site before spouting random thoughts of yours.

 

[Figs]

No, not at all what I said. I didnt say that every famous thing is popular. I said popularity goes hand in hand with being famous. Try using COMMON SENSE when reading on a public forum site before spouting random thoughts of yours.

Whatever, what I said still stands.

Just because Superman is known throughout the world in no way means he is the most popular. I think it has to do with him being one of the original flying invincible superheroes, who's symbol is easy enough to remember because it's a big fricken S.

Just because everyone knows of him doesn't mean they actually like or give two ****s about him either.

 

[cookiva]

I know TDK won't make more than films like Narnia, Potter, or Indiana Jones but I think even with Will Smith's drawing power it will still do better than Hancock.

Will Smith, Charlize Theoron, Jason Bateman, directed by up and coming young director Peter Berg. Im thinking that it will do pretty good. Batman isnt as big of a draw internationally as everyone thinks that he is. I have lived overseas. I know first hand. Batman Begins got about 150mil overseas. I Am Legend got more than that.

 

[cookiva]

Whatever, what I said still stands.

Just because Superman is known throughout the world in no way means he is the most popular. I think it has to do with him being one of the original flying invincible superheroes, who's symbol is easy enough to remember because it's a big fricken S.

Just because everyone knows of him doesn't mean they actually like or give two ****s about him either.

Oh, is that why Superman Returns made more money at the box office worldwide than Batman Begins???

 

[Figs]

Will Smith, Charlize Theoron, Jason Bateman, directed by up and coming young director Peter Berg. Im thinking that it will do pretty good. Batman isnt as big of a draw internationally as everyone thinks that he is. I have lived overseas. I know first hand. Batman Begins got about 150mil overseas. I Am Legend got more than that.

Just curious, when you were living overseas did you have any guesses or assumptions to why Batman isn't as popular over there as other characters are?

 

[cookiva]

Just curious, when you were living overseas did you have any guesses or assumptions to why Batman isn't as popular over there as other characters are?

Because of objects that I would see sold in stores. I didn't live overseas when any Batman/Superman films came out. But in stores, Superman shirts, superman toothbrushes, Superman everthing. Belguim and China both loved superman products.

 

[Figs]

Oh, is that why Superman Returns made more money at the box office worldwide than Batman Begins???

A big part of that was because we haven't had a Superman movie in a long time.

Not too long ago we had two cheesy/lame Batman films before BB that turned off the general audience. If Schumacher never did those two I'm willing to bet Batman's draw wouldn't have gotten smaller like it did.

As most people that pay more attention to BO numbers than I, have pointed out, BB started making more and more over time through word of mouth. People started hearing good things about it, like that it wasn't like the previous two and gave it a chance.

 

[cookiva]

A big part of that was because we haven't had a Superman movie in a long time.

Not too long ago we had two cheesy/lame Batman films before BB that turned off the general audience. If Schumacher never did those two I'm willing to bet Batman's draw wouldn't have gotten smaller like it did.

As most people that pay more attention to BO numbers have pointed out, BB started making more and more over time through word of mouth. People started hearing good things about it, like it wasn't like the previous two and gave it a chance.

What about the two previous Superman films which were both cheesy/lame. Those killed the franchise until now.

 

[Figs]

What about the two previous Superman films which were both cheesy/lame. Those killed the franchise until now.

Exactly, but the time in between those two Superman films to SR compared to say Batman & Robin to BB was a lot longer.

Hey, it's just my opinion but the time gap between S4 and SR let the movie going public forget about the last two. It had been quite some time since he had gotten a film not to mention one in the era where we have CGI.

I think since it wasn't too long ago that Batman & Robin was released it was still fresh in the GA minds.

 

[Excel]

Oh, thats why the Superman symbol is the most recognized symbol in all of pop culture. Thats why people in 3rd world countries know him. Being famous goes hand in hand with popularity. You cant be popular without being famous.

I never said he wasnt popular, just not as popular as Bats and Spidey. Hes more famous because hes the original hero.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

I remember a thread a while back arguing whether the best of action flicks had passed us already. The 80s were as good as it got. Then people listed recent favorites like Live Free or Die Hard. The Bourne franchise. Then Batman Begins. That's the group it's in. Batman is an action/crime franchise, now more than ever under Nolan and those movies just don't make big money. Fantasy is what rules the box office and at the end of the day the most fantastical thing you'll get out of a Batman movie are fist fights and car chases.

 

[Jick]

Ummm....yes he is. He is a lot more popular than Superman, Spidey sthat tough. Spiderman is def. more popular with children but Batman owns with people 10-40. Older audiences base what they see off reviews.

dude, Spidey and Supes are more popular than Bats. specially Supes, he most be the first. Spidey even more after his three movies.
I think it'd go like Superman, Spider-man, Batman and Hulk.
and all probably got their reputation over seas with the tv shows and marketing. Batman may be more well-know where you live, but worldwide, you can't bet he isn't.

 

[Excel]

Oh, is that why Superman Returns made more money at the box office worldwide than Batman Begins???

Psh tdk will tool on sr and sr-mos's gross.

 

[topdog1]

Sad to say because it's for the wrong reason but Dark Knight will rule the domestic box office this summer, just edging out Indy. Heath's tragic passing makes DK a pure box office juggernaut. The movie will draw a tremendous curiosity factor after all this "the role drove him to the brink" talk. It's now critic proof because no critic will want to seem insensitive and say anything bad about the movie. Mark my words, DK has a life all its own now.

Indy and Hancock will be huge as will Iron Man. IM has the perfect release slot and great buzz. The sleeper in all this will be Incredible Hulk if they market it and make it right. Images of a Hulk/Abomination brawl will draw in the popcorn crowd as fast as giant robot cars did for Transformers. Hulk won't be that big due to competition but it'll be a surprise hit.

 

[cookiva]

Psh tdk will tool on sr and sr-mos's gross.

Yeah, the second film in an established franchise will out gross the first in the beginning of a retracing of an old one. Of course it will. Im talking about BB and SR.