2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Raiden]

The ads are making it look like hot garbage.

I agree. The trailer seems rather underwhelming. I mean, Will Smith goes back in time, and encounters a much-younger Tommy Lee Jones (played by Josh Brolin)? That premise doesn't make me feel excited and want to see it right away. Granted, the movie will probably be better than MIB2, but then again I'm sure Battleship is better than that, as well. MIB3 will win the week, thanks to Will Smith's star power, but I don't think it means it will become as big a movie as the first one did.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think anyone is saying it won't be no. 1 next week. I'm saying it won't be 85M next week. Hancock opened to 62M over Jul 4 holiday weekend. This won't make more than that.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I thought the 85mil was for the Holiday weekend?

 

[rashad]

I thought the 85mil was for the Holiday weekend?

Yup. It's for the 4-day.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yup. It's for the 4-day.

I thought so because 85mil for the 3rd seemed ridiculous for a franchise that has been dead for 10 years. Personally I still see it getting number one but with less than 85mil for the 4 day. It's hard for me to predict this movie because I just don't care about it.

 

[Marvin]

sony likes hiding behind extended weekend numbers.
looking at it now, it might not actually do over 30 given a diffused 3 days

but at least it will have headlines saying it's the new #1 that dethroned earth's mightiest heroes.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think it'll make around 70 million.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

sony likes hiding behind extended weekend numbers.
looking at it now, it might not actually do over 30 given a diffused 3 days

I think you are going a little too low on it. But Sony is totally hiding behind the extended weekend thing, lets look at Spider-Man, they know that it's not going to do record breaking numbers so why try?

 

[Liam_H]

One could say Sony is trying to replicate the success of the first Transformers movie because it was released as the same holiday configuration as ASM is going to be. However, I believe its more to prepare for a lower return than not.

 

[terry78]

Basically, people will go see Will Smith in a movie. Even if it's a more dramatic role and kind of low key, they'll go to watch him literally watching paint dry on the screen if the role called for it.

 

[Marvin]

I think you are going a little too low on it. But Sony is totally hiding behind the extended weekend thing, lets look at Spider-Man, they know that it's not going to do record breaking numbers so why try?

In a typical 3 day scenario I would have put MIB3 at 50-60.
But diffused in such a way as it is I give it's 3 day a 30 to 40 figure, with the last burst of Avengers fans finally finding time to see that picture.

It should be close.

I see spidey's scenario as similar to TF3's, they want as much time between their release and the fierce competitor's subsequent release a few weeks later. Not everyone can face Avengers caliber comp.

 

[Liam_H]

Smaller number of people tuned into Seven Pounds.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

In a typical 3 day scenario I would have put MIB3 at 50-60.
But diffused in such a way as it is I give it's 3 day a 30 to 40 figure, with the last burst of Avengers fans finally finding time to see that picture.

It should be close.

I see spidey's scenario as similar to TF3's, they want as much time between their release and the fierce competitor's subsequent release a few weeks later. Not everyone can face Avengers caliber comp.

I don't because I'm convinced that TAS is going to greatly under perform in the states. I see MIB following suit actually. Overseas I wouldn't be surprised if it made more than 400mil though.

 

[Marvin]

I don't because I'm convinced that TAS is going to greatly under perform in the states. I see MIB following suit actually. Overseas I wouldn't be surprised if it made more than 400mil though.

If only ASM and Avengers switched dates.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/20/entertainment-us-battleship-idUSBRE84J0AS20120520

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm glad somebody finally admitted that the international numbers did not "save" Battleship. It is a huge as failure and money will be loss. Universal doesn't even know how to sell out. Not being as big a failure as John Carter doesn't mean jack****. It's still and bomb.

John Carter was actually slightly okay but Battleship was a hot piece of garbage and it tanking can only mean good things for the industry.

 

[Raiden]

I think it is interesting that when The Avengers had their huge record-breaking OW, Hollywood thought it could lead the way and signal the beginning of a strong summer of movies, but so far every movie released since then seemed to have underperformed. I'm sure MIB3 will reverse the recent trend but I doubt it'll be as big as Sony anticipated; I have a feeling it might fall a little short of the studio's expectation.

 

[Raiden]

I'm glad somebody finally admitted that the international numbers did not "save" Battleship. It is a huge as failure and money will be loss. Universal doesn't even know how to sell out. Not being as big a failure as John Carter doesn't mean jack****. It's still and bomb.

John Carter was actually slightly okay but Battleship was a hot piece of garbage and it tanking can only mean good things for the industry.

Universal should just be as frank as Disney when they admitted their losses after JC bombed at the box office, because spending over $200 mil on a movie who only has $25 mil OW can't really be sugarcoated or spinned into something remotely positive.

 

[The Morningstar]

Unless it makes 25 million every weekend for like, 2 months lol.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it is interesting that when The Avengers had their huge record-breaking OW, Hollywood thought it could lead the way and signal the beginning of a strong summer of movies, but so far every movie released since then seemed to have underperformed. I'm sure MIB3 will reverse the recent trend but I doubt it'll be as big as Sony anticipated; I have a feeling it might fall a little short of the studio's expectation.

I agree this trend is worrisome. What if Huntsman and Prometheus open to underwhelming or disastrous numbers?

 

[terry78]

^We'll just say audiences are stupid and don't recognize good film.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Universal should just be as frank as Disney when they admitted their losses after JC bombed at the box office, because spending over $200 mil on a movie who only has $25 mil OW can't really be sugarcoated or spinned into something remotely positive.

Exactly. Universal has been spinning this all weekend. It didn't make 400mil overseas, 250mil does not get the out of the black. To be honest the movie needed a 60mil opening weekend with that kind of budget.

^We'll just say audiences are stupid and don't recognize good film.

If either of those movies are good or decent some will say that but I won't. Dark Shadows and Battleship tanking has given me hope.

 

[The Morningstar]

Well yea, let's hope Snow White and Prometheus are good films first.

 

[superherofan777]

I`m confused, how much exactly has "The Avengers" made to date???

 

[The Morningstar]

About 1.2 billion WW. I'm guessing it's got another 300-400 million in it.