2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Doctor Jones]

Yeah, I don't like the whole "3D is cheating" mentality. The fact is people were willing to see Avengers in 3D, despite some not having a choice. They made an effort. They really wanted to see the movie regardless if they had to pay extra.

 

[Iceman]

The 3D 'boost' isn't a 100% straightforward freebie as some of the websites seem to think especially given how common the distaste for the product has been since Avatar. Of course it's an opportunity to make extra money but that money doesn't make itself.

If it was that simple to make more money by surcharging for an additional feature why not keep adding extra features and increasing the price? Like include a load of Avengers trading cards & comics & toys and add an extra 5 dollars to every ticket. People aren't complete zombies and if Avengers wasn't a must see and there was a comparable quality 2D film out in the same genre at a lesser price, it's pretty obvious what would happen.

Either the customer has to place sufficient value in that extra feature for the amount of extra cost or (as I believe is the case here) they are prepared to pay the extra price for the initial product anyway and see the extra as a possible enhancer & non-detractor that they don't really care about.

People have a certain value they put on a film and if the total ticket price falls within that they'll see it. So this 3D boost works when people are going to see your film anyway. Limiting 2D availability for your 3D film is a sneaky way of forcing this extra revenue when people are definitely going to see your film above all other films that are out.

For lower profile films like Thor I think you lose a certain percentage of people who are on the fringes of seeing it, not invested in the universe and who given the extra cost will choose something else on the day and this counteracts the higher price you're getting for the sightly fewer tickets you do sell.

So I'm not arguing about the existence of the 3D boost for the big films, just that it is partially earned (& often not because of the ****** 3D itself) and in the case of films that aren't so big, almost a myth. I think it'd work for the likes of TDKR & Avengers if they just increased prices of all tickets slightly even without 3D as most people would rather pay a dollar extra to see them than watch Battleship. t:

 

[Iceman]

Which is why i'd prefer it if movies were also listed by tickets sold. It gives a much more accurate picture of how many people are seeing the film. Movie tickets are the only things purchased that aren't listed by units sold.

The number of tickets sold certainly has value as an indicator of the popularity of a film but by itself and without box office numbers, what does it mean? It's not the objective, making money is the objective. All you would have to do to increase tickets sold is decrease the price. I can tell you now if TDKR came out with a price of 2 cents it would break GWTW's attendance records & probably just from people on the Hype t:

 

[Marvin]

just curious, if TDKR was a 3D(nolan) release, would is be all but a given that it would out gross TA?

 

[CConn]

Of course not.

But it would be at least on an even playing field, and I'd say there's a possibility it'd do comparable numbers.

As it is, I don't think it has a chance.

 

[Iceman]

just curious, if TDKR was a 3D(nolan) release, would is be all but a given that it would out gross TA?

A given?! No of course not. I don't even think the idea of 3D Nolan Batman is that appealing. Now if IMAX was all over the country and everyone could get tickets easily I think that would have a HUGE impact on its potential.

 

[EML420]

I wish my theater had an Imax screen if its really has great has people say movie studios should be pushing that instead of 3D.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, I'm not a believer in the '3D is cheating' argument either, but it's still a big advantage to possess.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

of course 3D isn't cheating, but it is an advantage. One that TDKR lacks.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think those of us who are getting or are already tired of 3d should applaud nolan for his decision to not go by the trend of filming in 3d.

TDKR no matter what number exactly it makes will make a ton of money proving that 3d is not the only way to present a blockbuster.

Honestly i was upset the only way i could see the avengers on imax was to have it be in imax 3d when the 3d was absolutely forgettable. I kept wanting to take off my clunky imax 3d glasses and just enjoy it in regular imax, of course that would have been impossible.

So bravo to you good sir nolan.

 

[Raiden]

of course 3D isn't cheating, but it is an advantage. One that TDKR lacks.

Exactly. There are plenty of movies who bombed at the box office with 3D, so it's not a free pass to become a blockbuster movie. However, the movies that did well with 3D can do well without it also. Yes, The Avengers got a boost from the extra admission prices with 3D, but they're breaking records because it's a movie people want to see. TDKR will make alot of money no matter what, but strictly on comparison with TA, it will need to sell more tickets just to be on par with it and that's one thing I don't see it happening due to lack of 3D. I don't think TDKR will outperform TDK either, though.

 

[The Morningstar]

Which is why i'd prefer it if movies were also listed by tickets sold. It gives a much more accurate picture of how many people are seeing the film. Movie tickets are the only things purchased that aren't listed by units sold.

Why would they do that? Money talks louder than tickets bought. It's all about the $$$.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think those of us who are getting or are already tired of 3d should applaud nolan for his decision to not go by the trend of filming in 3d.

TDKR no matter what number exactly it makes will make a ton of money proving that 3d is not the only way to present a blockbuster.

Honestly i was upset the only way i could see the avengers on imax was to have it be in imax 3d when the 3d was absolutely forgettable. I kept wanting to take off my clunky imax 3d glasses and just enjoy it in regular imax, of course that would have been impossible.

So bravo to you good sir nolan.

The Hunger Games just proved that in March when it opened with 152mil without 3D tickets and it's on it's way to 396-400mil without 3D tickets.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Why would they do that? Money talks louder than tickets bought. It's all about the $$$.

Yeah, Hollywood doesn't make movies just to see the number of people who show up. They want to maximize profits, like any other business.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

The Hunger Games just proved that in March when it opened with 152mil without 3D tickets and it's on it's way to 396-400mil without 3D tickets.

Seriously, THG's achievements are no joke. Without 3D and sequel anticipation, it managed to bring in 152m on OW. That's hella impressive.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Based on THG's overseas performance they might want to consider 3D. lol!

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Based on THG's overseas performance they might want to consider 3D. lol!

Why? This was an obscure adaptation outside the US. It was always going to make 150-250m OS, especially since it was the first installment.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's overseas performance is highly unusual for a movie that made so much money domestically but 250mil is nothing to sneeze at. It has had really good legs overseas. It's sequel should be massive overseas.

 

[marvelman2006]

I think 3D is a form of cheating and fluffing for the Box office books for studios. I mean take away 3D from alice in wonderland and no post avatar 3D madness and that might have done dark shadows nunbers. I think if a movie is good enough to perform it shouldnt need fancy spinner add ons like 3D. If the dark knight rises doesnt best atleast the hunger games opening weekend then there will be a huge problem. 3D is a gimmick and a sucky one at that.

 

[The Morningstar]

It doesn't matter if a movie is good enough to perform without 3D. 3D makes it more money. For every 100 million 3D is at least 10 million of that.

It's all about $$$ and studios will continue to use it.

And Ridley Scott says 3D is great (although he's actually shooting with 3D). Ridley Scott wouldn't be using it as a gimmick, you can bet the bank on that.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My main complaint about 3D was always about theaters and studio's trying to force me to pay higher ticket prices to watch a movie in a format that I hate and think is a gimmick but now that they have stopped trying to force me I don't give a **** about it being in theaters one way or another for the most part.

 

[TheOnlyOmega]

I think 3D is a form of cheating and fluffing for the Box office books for studios. I mean take away 3D from alice in wonderland and no post avatar 3D madness and that might have done dark shadows nunbers. I think if a movie is good enough to perform it shouldnt need fancy spinner add ons like 3D. If the dark knight rises doesnt best atleast the hunger games opening weekend then there will be a huge problem. 3D is a gimmick and a sucky one at that.

You're saying Alice in Wonderland would have put up Dark Shadows numbers without 3D? I'm sorry, I wasn't aware the 3D for Alice in Wonderland bumped up its gross by 900 million.

 

[marvelman2006]

You're saying Alice in Wonderland would have put up Dark Shadows numbers without 3D? I'm sorry, I wasn't aware the 3D for Alice in Wonderland bumped up its gross by 900 million.

Atleast in domestic yes, Show me any statistic that would make me wrong.

heres a chart just for opening weekend on Alice in wonderland and Avatar, clearly the 3D helped big time and Im sure its safe to say it continued in helping the movies make the money they did. I dont have Clash of the titans listed because that was clearly a bomb and everyone knew it regardless. But Avatar set off the huge 3D craze and Alice in wonderland clearly reaped the rewards.


I've presented my evidence.....

 

[Doctor Jones]

People still want to see these movies in 3D, despite not given a chocie. If they were still forced, then they wouldn't care enough to see it and just watch it online or wait until DVD. They pay because they want to see the film itself.

 

[TheOnlyOmega]

Atleast in domestic yes, Show me any statistic that would make me wrong.

heres a chart just for opening weekend on alice in wonderland and avatar, clearly the 3D helped big time and Im sure its safe to say it continued in helping the movies make the money they did. I've presented my evidence.....

So, you're saying that the majority of people wouldn't have seen Alice in Wonderland if it wasn't in 3D? It wouldn't have made as much money, but it would not have drawn in Dark Shadows numbers. Basically your trying to tell me that all of the people who spent 80 mil to see the movie in 3D, would not have seen it? I just don't buy it, especially since Wonderland had appeal across multiple major demographics. I really don't think 3D is that big of a deal, and it'll be done in 5 years.