2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions) - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]450073[/split]

 

[Marvin]

Sorry for the lame title, clearly not my game. Seeing as how this is the follow up to the supposed monster year, I found that title fitting.

Figure I'd start this now. Predictions later, once we get a good feel for the line up, but no need for discussions to wait.

This has to be the Rocks year, he has 4 pretty significant films dropping in 4 back to back months and if even 3 of them are solid, he will be cemented as the modern 80's action star re incarnate.

Snitch in Feb
GI Joe in March
Pain & Gain(and Bay) in April
Fast 6 in May
...and hercules the year after.

High hopes for him. However if they all flop, sheesh.

 

[MadVillainy]

It doesn't help that the quality of this year's summer blockbusters hasn't been particularly high.

Personally I was disappointed by all the summer movies I've seen. Not that they were necessarily bad movies.

 

[onyxrose81]

Some big films have been released but they've all been mediocre.

 

[MrMaooz]

Personally I was disappointed by all the summer movies I've seen. Not that they were necessarily bad movies.

I haven't been dissapointed at all.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I haven't been dissapointed at all.

I thought this summer was way better than last year. Only movie I flat out disliked that I have seen was Pacific Rim. I'd take almost all of the films I've seen over Avenger's and TDKR. I know that's a minority opinion but I don't care how popular my opinions are.

 

[MrMaooz]

I thought this summer was way better than last year. Only movie I flat out disliked that I have seen was Pacific Rim. I'd take almost all of the films I've seen over Avenger's and TDKR. I know that's a minority opinion but I don't care how popular my opinions are.

Tell you the truth though, Star Trek and MOS pretty much made my Summer. I thought both were fantastic.

 

[Mace Dolex]

This has to be the Rocks year, he has 4 pretty significant films dropping in 4 back to back months and if even 3 of them are solid, he will be cemented as the modern 80's action star re incarnate.

Snitch in Feb
GI Joe in March
Pain & Gain(and Bay) in April
Fast 6 in May
...and hercules the year after.

High hopes for him. However if they all flop, sheesh.

The thing with The Rock is that he needs a star vehicle to build a franchise to really get into the action groove of old veterans like Stallone with Rambo/Rocky and Schwarzenegger with Terminator.

Dwayne Johnson is a likable and charismatic guy but this new Hercules thing ain't gonna pan out unless of course it's Marvel's verson of Herc introduced in The Avengers films.

 

[BestGirl]

Personally I was disappointed by all the summer movies I've seen. Not that they were necessarily bad movies.

That's how I feel. So many of this years's summer movies have been so vanilla. MOS has been my favorite blockbuster but I'm not sure I would've cared for it had I not been a Superman fan.

ETA: The Great Gatsby has been my favorite summer movie overall but I can see how it would polarize the audience.

 

[jmc]

It's not going to surprise me if within the next few years there's going to be fewer and fewer big budgeted movies being released. We're at the absurd level where every film over a 3-4 month period is trying to present itself as an event movie, many of which struggle to break even let alone make a profit, especially when you hear things like Harry Potter 6 didn't even break even in spite of making a crap load of cash. That is a concern because it means studios are over relying on additional forms of revenue to earn money back on the film, and there's only so many franchises that will ever be capable of doing that like Star Wars.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's not going to surprise me if within the next few years there's going to be fewer and fewer big budgeted movies being released. We're at the absurd level where every film over a 3-4 month period is trying to present itself as an event movie, many of which struggle to break even let alone make a profit, especially when you hear things like Harry Potter 6 didn't even break even in spite of making a crap load of cash. That is a concern because it means studios are over relying on additional forms of revenue to earn money back on the film, and there's only so many franchises that will ever be capable of doing that like Star Wars.

That was Harry Potter 5, and it made plenty of money. Adding the expenses of other films to its bill in an attempt to avoid paying bonuses doesn't change that.

Every HP was incredibly profitable before ever leaving the theater.

 

[:eek:]

Funny thing though it's been a strong summer domestically from a box office perspective. There was a time before the summer season began when 2013 was around $300 million behind 2012. That gap has, as of July 18, narrowed to just $70 million.

 

[mclay18]

Funny thing though it's been a strong summer domestically from a box office perspective. There was a time before the summer season began when 2013 was around $300 million behind 2012. That gap has, as of July 18, narrowed to just $70 million.

It's too bad July 2013 will lag behind last year's July earnings. Pacific Rim just didn't turn into that massive hit WB was hoping for. While The Conjuring will be a moneymaker, thanks to it costing a fraction of PC's production budget, I don't think it'll be a big juggernaut.

Maybe it's time WB should rethink their summer blockbuster playbook, since Alan Horn and Jeff Robinov were ousted.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1211,7 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $712,6 million
3. Man of Steel $635,3 million
4. Despicable Me 2 $587,9 million
5. The Croods $582,3 million
6. Monsters University $533,8 million
7. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
8. World War Z $457,2 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $448,7 million
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
11. The Hangover Part III $350,7 million
12. The Great Gatsby $329,9 million
13. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
14. Oblivion $285,6 million
15. Epic $241,2 million
16. After Earth $235,7 million
17. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $225,7 million
18. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $207,9 million
19. Lost in Thailand $205,4 million
20. Now You See Me $200,5 million

 

[Bruce Malone]

Crazy how big the Fast and Furious franchise has become the last few years.

 

[hammerhedd11]

As much as it's an undeniable hit, I wonder if the Fast and Furious films have hit a certain ceiling, domestically at least, in terms of how much they can earn. Domestically, Fast and Furious Six only made about $30 million more than Fast Five. Maybe this is the fault of my own expectations, but with the near unanimous praise for Fast Five, seemingly bringing in a larger audience, and with an almost equal level of love for Six, I was predicting a significant bump, upwards of the $300 mil mark. Internationally, the sequel also added an additional $60 mil from Five, nothing to scoff at, but with the mammoth amount of growth for sequels nowadays in both domestic and international terms, I can't help but wonder if this series has reached its maximum potential.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Who cares if it has hit a ceiling or not? 700 plus million dollars is huge. Also the movie went directly up against The Hangover 3 which had to hurt it's overall gross. The problem now or days is entertainment watchers (and some studios) expect every movie to hit 1 bil and act like it's a disappointment when it doesn't. It's ridiculous. If a movie has to hit 1 bil to be successful too much was spent on the film.

 

[hammerhedd11]

"As much as it's an undeniable hit"

This was literally my first sentence. I never mentioned that not hitting a billion was a disappointment, nor did I call it a failure. I am just curious about a film's particular audience and whether or not certain films can continue to grow, or whether or not they stay within a certain range time and time again (like the Twilight and Harry Potter series, mostly staying within a very close range film to film). Discussing such an idea is not as appointing failure.

Who cares if it has hit a ceiling or not?
Anyone that cares to discuss box office, I guess. I don't know why, especially in a thread dedicated to people like me who are very interested in how films perform, that you seem to take so personally some harmless speculation.

 

[redhawk23]

It's too bad July 2013 will lag behind last year's July earnings. Pacific Rim just didn't turn into that massive hit WB was hoping for. While The Conjuring will be a moneymaker, thanks to it costing a fraction of PC's production budget, I don't think it'll be a big juggernaut.

Maybe it's time WB should rethink their summer blockbuster playbook, since Alan Horn and Jeff Robinov were ousted.

I really wonder if they'll move Jupiter Ascending out of its July slot. I really don't see it doing any better than Pacific Rim.

 

[:eek:]

DESPICABLE ME 2: DESPICABLE IN CHINA?

July 24, 2013
Without explanation, China has refused to allow Universal’s animated Despicable Me 2 to be included among the 34 foreign films that the country allows to be screened in its theaters each year. Chinese authorities had previously barred World War Z and The Lone Ranger. China has become the second-largest market for films (behind the U.S.), and even though studios collect only about 25 percent of ticket sales in that country, each movie shown there has the potential of bringing tens of millions of dollars into the studios’ coffers. Universal had no immediate comment on the Chinese decision, but it could not have been entirely unexpected; the original Despicable Me did not get a release in China, either.

 

[Octoberist]

Well..that's random of them.

 

[Octoberist]

Personally I was disappointed by all the summer movies I've seen. Not that they were necessarily bad movies.

I'm with you. Not that any of the movies are bad, nothing really resonated with me. Nor was there a movie that broke out and captured the public's attention like what Avatar, The Dark Knight, or the Avengers did. So far, most of the movies came and went. Came and went. Came and went. Nothing felt like an event, even with Iron Man 3 or Pac Rim.

However, I think the true gem of the summer are the smaller films. Mud and This is the End for example.

 

[:eek:]

ANALYSIS: 'Fast & Furious' Poised For Strong Run In China

on July 24, 2013

If Fast & Furious 6's theatrical run were to end today, its $712.8 million global haul would still be viewed as a massive success.
But Fast & Furious 6's run is not over yet. Far from it. Universal's juggernaut will open in China, the world's second-largest theatrical market, on July 26. This release will be particularly important for Universal following the confusing rejection of Despicable Me 2 by government officials in China.
Sources tell BoxOffice that Fast & Furious 6 could end up with $70 million in China even though rampant piracy--a problem that also hurt such blockbusters as Inception and Skyfall--is likely to hinder the film slightly. A $70 million haul in China would help Fast & Furious 6 hit $800 million globally, and it would also mark a sizable improvement over 2011's Fast Five's $40.5 million haul in the Middle Kingdom.
A wild card for Fast & Furious 6 comes in the form of co-star Dwayne Johnson. Johnson has quite the following in China. 2012's Journey 2: The Mysterious Island roped in a healthy $59 million there, while earlier this year G.I. Joe: Retaliation posted a strong $54 million take.
The global growth from Fast Five to Fast & Furious 6 is staggering. Fast Five revived the property by taking in $628.6 million, and now Fast 6 is running 14.2 percent ahead of it. Universal may not have a superhero franchise like Warner Bros. or Disney, but they've effectively turned the Fast and Furious films into something just as strong. The question now is whether or not Fast 7 can join the club of films that have grossed $1 billion worldwide. We certainly aren't ruling that out.

 

[MrMaooz]

Forecast: 'Wolverine' To Go Berserk On Box Office This Weekend

Saturday AM Update: The Wolverine opened in first place on Friday with an estimated $21 million. That's way lower than X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($34.4 million) and also slightly below X-Men: First Class ($21.3 million). In fact, it's the lowest start for an X-Men movie since the original movie in 2000. For the weekend, The Wolverine should earn between $50 and $55 million.

Meanwhile, The Conjuring fell 57 percent to an estimated $7.4 million. That's a fantastic hold for a horror movie, and guarantees that the movie will ultimately close with over $100 million. Fruitvale Station expanded to 1,064 locations and earned $1.45 million, which puts it on pace for a $5 million weekend. The Way, Way Back also had a solid expansion ($970,000 from 886 theaters), while The To-Do List disappointed with $590,000 from 591 theaters.

Friday AM Update: The Wolverine earned $4 million from late Thursday shows beginning at 10 p.m. That's a bit higher than World War Z and Pacific Rim, which both grossed $3.6 million from shows starting at 7 p.m. Among recent X-Men movies, it was in between X-Men: First Class ($3.37 million) and X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($5 million).

The X-Men comparison suggests that The Wolverine will wind up somewhere between $60 and $70 million for the weekend; however, if it played out like Pacific Rim, it would finish just above $40 million for the weekend.

Forecast: This weekend's only brand-new nationwide release is The Wolverine, which features Hugh Jackman once again reprising his star-making role as the titular immortal hero. Playing at 3,924 locations (3,063 of which will show it in 3D), the sixth X-Men movie should open to at least $60 million, which will easily be good for first place.

Meanwhile, The To-Do List opens in moderate release, while Sundance hits Fruitvale Station and The Way, Way Back expand nationwide. Finally, Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, opens in six theaters ahead of a likely nationwide expansion in August.

While the X-Men franchise has never reached top-tier comic book levels (Spider-Man, Iron Man, The Dark Knight, etc.), it has generally performed well at the box office. The high point so far is X-Men: The Last Stand, which concluded the original trilogy by earning $234.4 million in 2006.

The Wolverine isn't the first attempt at a stand-alone movie for the X-Men's most popular character: that honor belongs to 2009 prequel X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Despite a nearly complete version of the movie leaking online a month early, it still wound up opening to a strong $85.1 million on the first weekend of Summer 2009. Unfortunately, it was generally disliked (38 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, 6.7 on IMDb) and dropped off quickly before closing with $179.9 million.

Typically, when audiences aren't thrilled with a movie, they turn out in smaller numbers for its sequel. While that will likely be the case on The Wolverine's opening weekend, a handful of factors should mitigate that a bit. First, consumers have warmed up again towards the X-Men brand following 2011's well-received X-Men: First Class; there's also already a lot of excitement surrounding next Summer's X-Men: Days of Future Past.

It's also possible that the Wolverine character is so popular that one awful outing doesn't entirely sour audience. This could be referred to as the "James Bond" effect—Quantum of Solace was widely maligned, but Daniel Craig's incarnation of the legendary character was so well-liked that four years later Skyfall still set a new record for the franchise. While Wolverine doesn't have quite the same pop culture cache as James Bond, it is pretty clear that Jackman's version of the character is popular-enough to recover from one poor outing.

Fox has also executed a solid marketing campaign for The Wolverine. Previews suggest that the movie takes place after The Last Stand—always a positive to move the story forward—and clearly present Wolverine's struggles with his immortality. They also showcase the unique Japanese setting and the action that goes along with that, while hinting at a major showdown between Wolverine and the formidable Silver Samurai. Finally, the marketing has attempted to get audiences to forget about X-Men Origins: Wolverine by including a critic quote on most commercials that declares that this is the Wolverine movie people have been waiting for. And that might be true: the movie is currently at 65 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which is a noticeable improvement over Origins (38 percent).

It also helps that The Wolverine faces next-to-no competition. It's been a full five weeks since a live-action movie opened over $45 million (World War Z), and during that time a handful of would-be blockbusters have faltered. The Summer isn't over yet, and The Wolverine is well-positioned to fill the pent-up demand for big-budget spectacle.

Currently, distributor 20th Century Fox is expecting between $60 and $65 million for the weekend. Online ticket seller Fandango suggests the movie could open even higher; through the same point, The Wolverine is outselling X-Men: First Class by 39 percent, which would translate to a weekend around $75 million.

The Wolverine is also opening in around 60 foreign locations this weekend, including all major markets except Japan and China. With the addition of 3D and the international setting, it's likely that the movie tops X-Men Origins: Wolverine's $193 million total.

Forecast (July 26-28)
The Wolverine - $72.5 million
The Conjuring - $20.7 million (-51%)
Despicable Me 2 - $14.7 million (-41%)
Turbo - $11.7 million (-45%)
Grown Ups 2 - $11 million (-45%)

Bar for Success
At a minimum, The Wolverine should be matching X-Men: First Class's attendance figures. With a slight boost for 3D ticket pricing, that translates to at least $60 million this weekend. Meanwhile, The To-Do List needs $2 million this weekend, while The Way, Way Back and Fruitvale Station really ought to be hitting $3 million in their nationwide expansions.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3705&p=.htm

 

[Heretic]

Yeah, those Wolverine forecasts were off. The predictions were sharply lowered early Saturday...I've heard it could be as low as 53 million (that's near the low end of estimates) making it the worst debut in franchise history.