Summer 2009 Box Office Battle

[chaseter]

We all know that the biggest blockbusters of the year usually release during the summer to battle it out for box office dominance. This summer is also full of a few big movies and names that could dominate the theatres.

This thread is for predictions of which movies will make it into the coveted top 5 box office earners of summer 2009...those usually end up as the big earners for the year as well. Pick your 5 movies in order, you can go further if you want, and explain your reasoning. Also, for the movie you pick to be #1, out to the side mark how much you think it will make opening weekend. After the summer season is over, I will comb back through here and crown the winner who got all five right (the weekend take for #1 will be the tie breaker).

The summer season is usually mid April to late August so no posts or edited posts will be counted after April 15th.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Ima say Potter takes this one... both domestic and WW. Then:

TF2
Avatar
Up
Watchmen

 

[chaseter]

1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince - $75 million
2. Transformers 2
3. Terminator Salvation
4. Night at the Museum 2
5. Star Trek


Harry Potter will of course dominate closely followed by Transformers.

edit* After Fox decided to cut Wolverine down to under 2 hours...Star Trek is no in the running for top 5.

 

[chaseter]

Ima say Potter takes this one... both domestic and WW. Then:

TF2
Avatar
Up
Watchmen

If you think Watchmen will be in the top 5 then I have to say you are deluded

 

[FaT_tONle]

Wolverine in the top 3 is a joke...

 

[Octoberist]

Watchmen is coming out in March and Avatar in December, so how can any of these be Summer releases?

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah that's my fault... forgot the thread said summer... I'd have to put Terminator and Wolverine in there if that's the case... but I think they will be 4-5 respectively at best.

 

[Drizzle]

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (It's got a three week headstart over HP, and the Superbowl spot is getting people more pumped)
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (A close second)
3. Wolverine
4. Night at the Museum 2
5. Up
6. Terminator Salvation
7. Star Trek

 

[Octoberist]

1. Harry Potter
2. Transformers
3. Up
4. Terminator Salvation
5. (TIED) Wolverine
5 (TIED). GI Joe

EDIT: I forgot all about Star Trek!


It's hard to say overall. I think GI Joe will make bank, however it's in August. Wolverine will be a moderate hit, but I don't think it'll reach Iron Man money. In fact, non of the X-Men movies have.

I think UP will be another Pixar hit. Harry Potter..well it's Harry Potter and Transformers will bring in the kids. Terminator is probably going to make a ton of money too, perhaps moreso than Up. It's hard to say since I think Up is more accessable. The Bale Out actually has probably helped out Terminator's publicity.

Then there's InGlourious Basterds; most of QT's movie actually don't do so well in the box office. We'll see what happens here (i really think they should release in the Fall)

 

[FaT_tONle]

TF is too close to July 4th. It is sandwiched between films like Pelham and Public Enemies. So I think only the relatively younger audience will be seeing that film as oppossed to the older audience, where the first film may have weared thin on them 30 minutes in. And I think Potter has the bigger fanbase, and the mid July release... AND there hasn't been a Potter film out in two years.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Potter and Terminator: Salvation will be the big bread-winners this summer.

And I think Star Trek is going to seriously surprise audiences in terms of quality and box-office.

 

[Octoberist]

Omg. I forgot all about Star Trek!

 

[bunk]

(1) TF2
(2) Harry Potter (veeeery close second)
(3) Up
(4) Star Trek
(5) G.I. Joe

Obviously since any of these movies could turn out to be mediocre, it's really anybody's guess. This is just based on release dates and how I perceive the marketing to be going. I don't see too many huge weekends for any one movie happening this summer.

 

[bunk]

dubs

 

[Laderlappen]

This thread makes me depressed.

 

[Spider-Vader]

Domestic:
1. Wolverine/ Transformers: Rise of the Fallen /Terminator: Salvation
2. Wolverine/ Transformers: Rise of the Fallen /Terminator: Salvation
3. Wolverine/ Transformers: Rise of the Fallen /Terminator: Salvation
4. Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince
5. G.I. Joe
6. Star Trek
I'm not counting Watchmen as a summer movie.

If Wolverine is as good as the fans hope it is, it could be number 1.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I'm sorry, but there's no way Wolverine is going to out-perform Transformers or Potter.

 

[Galactus]

Worldwide I'd say Harry Potter will win. Domestically I'd say Transformers. Wolverine might have a chance domestically if it can generate the same positive buzz Iron Man did last year. Worldwide I wouldn't be at all surprised if movies like Angels & Demons and Ice Age 3 is bigger than Wolverine. Or perhaps they will at least have a stonger international run, but Wolverine is bigger worldwide thanks to much stronger domestic run.

 

[Nirvana]

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
3. Terminator: Salvation
4. Star Trek
5. Angels & Demons

 

[Spider-Vader]

worldwide i'd say harry potter will win. Domestically i'd say transformers. Wolverine might have a chance domestically if it can generate the same positive buzz iron man did last year.

qft.

 

[matrix_ghost]

I always tend to ase my predictions on the performances of the previous movies in a franchise and/or similar type of movies.

If we're talking about the domestic BO i'd say that Transformers will pretty much be the top grossing flick of the summer.
I have a strong feeling that we're looking here at a 400 million plus movie.
THe first TF movie performned extremely well ( more then 300 million) and if you were to compare this with say the first and 2nd POTC movie in terms of awareness , i'd say that TF definately has a chace of hitting 400 million.

With POtter , i'd say that it'll probably perform just as the last previous flick. Opening very high but just never seeming to hit 300 million. Internationally it's a different story because the Potter movies always score very good there.

Wolverine just doesn't seem to resonate that well in terms of (positive) buzz. Yes we all know that there will be wolverine flick but i honestly can't see WOlvie hitting more then 250-270 million. OF course i might be wrong and thru some miracle of god , Tom ROthman actually managed to keep his hands away from WOlverine but who knows. Right now i'm just going for that number.

I'd also like to point out that there is a (small) chance that Ninja Assasin might prove to be the next 300/matrix/wanted. Remember that all these flicks hardcore R rated flicks but the draw was the stylised action.
Hopefully we might see the same thing with Ninja Assasin. HEck everyone pretty much said that Wanted just never would be a success. All that changed one the first trailer came out and in the heat of the summer it proved to be one of the bigger hits.
So who knows.

 

[Galactus]

Having seen new opening weekend records three years in a row I wonder if something can beat The Dark Knight's record this year.

Here's all the movies that has held the opening weekend record:

1933 King Kong $90,000
1939 Gone with the Wind $945,000
1965 The Sound of Music $3,212,764
1975 Jaws $7,061,513
1978 Jaws 2 $9,866,023
1979 Star Trek: The Motion Picture $11,926,421
1981 Superman II $14,100,523
1982 Rocky III $16,015,408
1983 Return of the Jedi $23,019,618
1984 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom $25,337,100
1985 Rambo: First Blood Part II $25,520,843
1987 Beverly Hills Cop II $26,348,555
1989 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade $29,355,021
1989 Ghostbusters II $29,472,894
1989 Batman $40,505,884
1992 Batman Returns $45,687,710
1993 Jurassic Park $47,026,828
1995 Batman Forever $52,784,433
1997 The Lost World: Jurassic Park $72,132,785
2001 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621
2002 Spider-Man $114,844,116
2006 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $135,634,554
2007 Spider-Man 3 $151,116,516
2008 The Dark Knight $158,411,483

Were still a couple of years behind the 80's when there were new records five years in a row, 81-85. And 1989 was an interesting year with a new record three times the same year.

 

[Sentinel X]

^Thanks for posting that galactus, Its very interesting seeing how big the opening weekend has become. In the earlier films the opening weekends made a very small percentage of the total gross, now the opening weekend makes a huge part of total gross.
Btw, from King Kong's 90,000 to The Dark Knight's 158,000,000.... wow!

Anyway, my predictions (DOMESTIC):

1. Transformers 2 (Opening weekend: 140 million) - Why? This is really the biggest movie of the summer, Transformers has had amazing DVD sales and people are excited. Also the movie has a good release date.

2. Harry Potter - Its been 2 years since the last potter film and those harry potter fans are crazy for the film. this will most likely be number 1 worldwide

3. Disney and Pixar's Up

4. X-men Origins Wolverine

5. Terminator 4

 

[blueblazer2]

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (It's got a three week headstart over HP, and the Superbowl spot is getting people more pumped)
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (A close second)
3. Wolverine
4. Night at the Museum 2
5. Up
6. Terminator Salvation
7. Star Trek

People are overrating Transformer on this board Like they did with Indiana Jones last year . I guarantee you Star Trek and Terminator will make more than Transformers

 

[Bim]

People are overrating Transformer on this board Like they did with Indiana Jones last year . I guarantee you Star Trek and Terminator will make more than Transformers

Indy was third domestically (by a million) and second worldwide... if anything, i think some underestimated it.

I wouldnt underestimate Transformers just yet, but i'm still not set on my top 5...