2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions) - Part 1

[craigdbfan]

Thor is a sequel though to two films essentially (one of them being one of them most lucrative films of all time). MOS had none of that and was fighting a much bigger current in terms of expectations. All things considered I still think MOS did pretty darn good.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Not to mention it had the whole "reboot stigma" against it.

 

[kedrell]

Thor is a sequel though to two films essentially (one of them being one of them most lucrative films of all time). MOS had none of that and was fighting a much bigger current in terms of expectations. All things considered I still think MOS did pretty darn good.

I know no one who's saying MoS didn't do fine BO-wise. Of course it's done well. Honestly I expected a bit better from Thor2. But on paper, if you're a studio executive and had to choose between the two considering all the budget stuff and whatnot on which would be more likely to get a greenlight for a sequel(academic, I know since both are guaranteed basically) it'd be Thor.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

If we're talking academic, they would also take into account what Craig and I said. Not to mention in the current of blockbuster sequels, it would also mean Man of Steel has a higher ceiling for in terms of B.O. total for a sequel than Thor 3 would, considering the origin story is out the way and (especially considering that the only superhero sequel that made more than it's predecessors happens to be that movie you hate t.

Man of Steel would get greenlighted more easily.

EDIT: Almost forgot Spider-Man 3 made more internationally than the first two. And X-men 3. Okay, that's not true. I was thinking more audience reception.

 

[kedrell]

Many superhero sequels make more money than their predecessors. All the MCU sequels(3 so far) go up in gross with each sequel(I don't consider TA a sequel, it's its own franchise). SM3 made more than SM1 or 2. The first 2 X-sequels had a steady increase from film to film. TW increased from Origins and XMFC.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yeah, for some reason my mind drifted more domestic with Spider-Man 3 and I was thinking more audience wise.

My mind wished those threequels made less.

 

[:eek:]

NORTH AMERICA: 2013 Is A Record-Breaking Year

on December 29, 2013

Sunday, 12/29 Update: With a final push from a weekend that generated $201.3 million in reported grosses, 2013's total should hit $10.9 billion by December 31, which means it will pass 2012's record-setting domestic haul of $10.8 billion.
This accomplishment will come as a surprise to many who were quick to look at the year's many duds as a sign of a weak marketplace. Luckily, numbers don't lie. Moviegoers may have rejected the likes of The Lone Ranger, R.I.P.D. and After Earth but they lined up in droves for many others. The overall strength of December 2013's slate--combined with strong holdovers from November such as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen--helped maintain a year/year lead was established a very strong summer season.
Check back in the days to come for updated official totals.

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $918,8 million
3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $797,5 million
4. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
5. Monsters University $743,6 million
6. Man of Steel $662,8 million
7. Gravity $653,3 million
8. Thor: The Dark World $629,5 million
9. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $619,8 million
10. The Croods $587,2 million
11. World War Z $540 million
12. Frozen $499,5 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $407,6 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. Now You See Me $351,7 million
19. The Hangover Part III $351 million
20. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $316,7 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
24. Oblivion $286,2 million
25. Elysium $286,1 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $920,8 million
3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $831,1 million
4. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $757,4 million
6. Monsters University $743,6 million
7. Gravity $670,2 million
8. Man of Steel $668 million
9. Frozen $640,5 million
10. Thor: The Dark World $630,5 million
11. The Croods $587,2 million
12. World War Z $540 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $411 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. The Hangover Part III $362 million
19. Now You See Me $351,7 million
20. The Great Gatsby $351 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $318 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
24. Oblivion $286,2 million
25. Elysium $286,1 million

 

[eddy]

Frozen is a beast. Look at how many spots it jumped between january 1st and january 8th worldwide.

 

[:eek:]

Domestic bottom ten

1. Storage 24 $72
2. A Perfect Man $445
3. Triumph of the Wall $476
4. Hammer of the Gods $641
5. Syrup $663
6. Into the White $704
7. I Spit on Your Grave 2 $809
8. Billy and Buddy $894
9. Remnants $1022
10. Khumba $1029

 

[Raiden]

Frozen is a beast. Look at how many spots it jumped between january 1st and january 8th worldwide.

I think Frozen will surpass MOS soon.

 

[:eek:]

I think Frozen will surpass MOS soon.

It already has. And it has also surpassed Gravity. And with markets like China and Japan still ahead it shouldn't have any problems surpassing at least Monsters University and Fast & Furious 6

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Frozen really is a beast! Happy for its success!

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $935,2 million
3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $847,1 million
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $808,8 million
5. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
6. Monsters University $743,6 million
7. Frozen $712,7 million
8. Gravity $670,8 million
9. Man of Steel $668 million
10. Thor: The Dark World $631 million
11. The Croods $587,2 million
12. World War Z $540 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $411 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. The Hangover Part III $362 million
19. Now You See Me $351,7 million
20. The Great Gatsby $351 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $318 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
24. Oblivion $286,2 million
25. Elysium $286,1 million

 

[:eek:]

It doesn't look like the new Hobbit will join the billion dollar club:

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug added $10.9 million this weekend, which brings its overseas total to $585 million. Including its domestic earnings, the movie has so far banked $833.7 million worldwide; even with China and Japan on the way, it's now unlikely that Smaug will join An Unexpected Journey in the $1 billion club.

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $954,2 million
3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $853,9 million
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $834,4 million
5. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
6. Frozen $763,2 million
7. Monsters University $743,6 million
8. Gravity $677,5 million
9. Man of Steel $668 million
10. Thor: The Dark World $632,7 million
11. The Croods $587,2 million
12. World War Z $540 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $411 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. The Hangover Part III $362 million
19. Now You See Me $351,7 million
20. The Great Gatsby $351 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $318 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
24. Oblivion $286,2 million
25. Elysium $286,1 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $964,8 million
3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $858,2 million
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $847,5 million
5. Frozen $811,1 million
6. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
7. Monsters University $743,6 million
8. Gravity $688,7 million
9. Man of Steel $668 million
10. Thor: The Dark World $632,9 million
11. The Croods $587,2 million
12. World War Z $540 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $411 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. The Hangover Part III $362 million
19. Now You See Me $351,7 million
20. The Great Gatsby $351 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $318 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
24. Oblivion $286,2 million
25. Elysium $286,1 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $970,1 million
3. Frozen $864,5 million
4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $859,6 million
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $854,7 million
6. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
7. Monsters University $743,6 million
8. Gravity $694,2 million
9. Man of Steel $668 million
10. Thor: The Dark World $633,1 million
11. The Croods $587,2 million
12. World War Z $540 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $411 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. The Hangover Part III $362 million
19. Now You See Me $351,7 million
20. The Great Gatsby $351 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $318 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
24. Oblivion $286,2 million
25. Elysium $286,1 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $970,1 million
3. Frozen $914,2 million
4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $861,4 million
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $858,2 million
6. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
7. Monsters University $743,6 million
8. Gravity $698,2 million
9. Man of Steel $668 million
10. Thor: The Dark World $638,8 million
11. The Croods $587,2 million
12. World War Z $540 million
13. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
14. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
15. The Wolverine $414,8 million
16. Pacific Rim $411 million
17. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
18. The Hangover Part III $362 million
19. Now You See Me $351,7 million
20. The Great Gatsby $351 million
21. The Smurfs 2 $347,5 million
22. The Conjuring $318 million
23. The Wolf of Wall Street $305,1 million
24. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
25. Oblivion $286,2 million

 

[Raiden]

Only 56 mil between DM2 and Frozen, and Japan still doesn't have Frozen yet. I think it will surpass DM2 at the end and becomes #2 movie WW of 2013.

 

[jacobed]

It doesn't look like the new Hobbit will join the billion dollar club:

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug added $10.9 million this weekend, which brings its overseas total to $585 million. Including its domestic earnings, the movie has so far banked $833.7 million worldwide; even with China and Japan on the way, it's now unlikely that Smaug will join An Unexpected Journey in the $1 billion club.

No doubt that is a direct result from the crapfest first one. Wb must be very disappointed

 

[hammerhedd11]

In no world can over 800mil WW be considered a disappointment.

 

[jacobed]

Absolutely it can. Look at what Return of the King did 10 years ago. What The Hobbit barely did last year and how many movies now cross a billion. And their big blockbuster couldn't do it. I'd be really disappointed in it.

 

[:eek:]

Absolutely it can. Look at what Return of the King did 10 years ago. What The Hobbit barely did last year and how many movies now cross a billion. And their big blockbuster couldn't do it. I'd be really disappointed in it.

And lets not forget that the original LotR-trilogy didn't have any boost from 3D and IMAX, plus the market in countries like China was much smaller back then. RotK made only around $10 million in China while the first Hobbit made close to $50 million. And thanks to China the second Hobbit should make it past $900 million at least once it's released there. Stiil kind of underwhelming numbers. Personally I feel that while the LotR-trilogy was a movie event, the Hobbit-movies are more like milking money with nothing really new to offer.