2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[Warhammer]

I have no doubt that in a few months, films will be getting pushed back and spread out. Next summer is so stacked. And it isn't stacked in a counter-programming way either.

 

[redhawk23]

Whats coming out 4th of July weekend next year? I thought it was weird that Man of Steel would get moved to the middle of June if there wasn't already something out that extended weekend.

 

[redhawk23]

Ah, Disney has the Lone Ranger scheduled that weekend.

 

[Marvin]

From what I've seen from PRim, if they released it in june it probably wouldn't go over well. Hopefully that changes and they benefit from TDK spot.

...Both this and Trek feel like winter releases to me.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Trek feels nothing like a winter release to me. Rim needs a better trailer...

 

[Marvin]

Trek feels nothing like a winter release to me. Rim needs a better trailer...

It does for me. Something about ships and ensembles on adventures just works better in the winter for me. Something from my childhood.
My james camron childhood.

Outside of polishing effects, I don't see what else they can put in a Rim trailer, if anything all they can do is take stuff out.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm pretty sure they have a lot more to show.

 

[mclay18]

I'm still taking a wait and see attitude to Superman and I'm hoping they move it from that death slot of June 14.

I don't see why WB isn't taking a chance and try a spring release for that film (especially considering MOS will be in the can anytime now). The first two weeks of April are pretty light (mostly comedies and thrillers). And coming off a packed March... MOS could seriously make a ton of money with little competition before Oblivion expands on April 19th.

Or if March 2013 wasn't so packed, WB could easily try that Hunger Games spot for MOS, which only has The Croods scheduled for that weekend.

I can't believe of all the movies WB elected to push up when March 1, 2013 became available was Jack the Giant Slayer. MOS would've been perfect for that early March spot. It would've been refreshing after the previous month's chick flicks and R-rated action flicks.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Probably because of that very reason. And MOS will have the same audience regardless of release. While Jack, needs more to build it up.

 

[psylockolussus]

My predictions for next year (top 10 biggest box-office performances - domestic)
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Iron Man 3
3. Monsters University
4. Star Trek Into Darkness
5. After Earth
6. Thor: The Dark World
7. Man of Steel
8. The Wolverine
9. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
10. Fast & Furious 6

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't see how Hobbit DOS will finish below all those films. It's certainly going to outgross MoS, Wolverine, AE, and Star Trek.

No 1, will be a battle between IM3, Hunger Games CF and Hobbit DOS.

 

[redhawk23]

It does for me. Something about ships and ensembles on adventures just works better in the winter for me. Something from my childhood.
My james camron childhood.

Outside of polishing effects, I don't see what else they can put in a Rim trailer, if anything all they can do is take stuff out.

If they used the exact same footage but edited it a different fashion from the now now hackneyed 'Horn/cut to black' style I think it would be far better received.

Many people on the net are reacting badly to the trailer set up rather than anything to do with the content.

 

[redhawk23]

I don't see After Earth making more than any of those movies.

 

[Marvin]

If they used the exact same footage but edited it a different fashion from the now now hackneyed 'Horn/cut to black' style I think it would be far better received.

Many people on the net are reacting badly to the trailer set up rather than anything to do with the content.

Really, I feel it's the set up that really sells this. It really speaks to the geek culture...much more than redundant robot punching in this day and age.
I think they should have stopped while they were ahead, ala MOS.
Morso like Abrams usual ilk, where he just hides his monsters and no doubt unfinished cgi.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I don't see After Earth making more than any of those movies.

Don't underestimate Will Smith.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I don't see how Hobbit DOS will finish below all those films. It's certainly going to outgross MoS, Wolverine, AE, and Star Trek.

No 1, will be a battle between IM3, Hunger Games CF and Hobbit DOS.

Not so sure about that since An Unexpected Journey isn't doing anywhere near the business (even overseas) everyone expected. It won't be among the Top 3 domestic earners this year.

 

[marvelman2006]

It might have staying power though if WOM is strong like avatar had. Although Im still baffled at Avatars success given it wasnt widely recieved outside of the 3D aspect.

 

[redhawk23]

Avatar might have been criticized for its simple story, but it performed precisely as designed in that regard. The story may have been cliched but it was told clearly and everyone " Eight to Eighty" was able to get on board.

 

[redhawk23]

I'm thinking if Pacific Rim gets good word of mouth it could pull of 600 million or so WW. It may be recieved better overseas than domestically though.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Avatar got amazing reviews. You guys are rewriting history.

 

[Drizzle]

Iron Man 3 will be the top earner for the first half of 2013, Catching Fire for the second half. The surest bet is that The Hangover Part III will be the top grossing R-rated film.

 

[Moridin]

I'll make a few early predictions.

Star Trek ID -
US - $270m
Int - $250m
WW - $520m


Iron Man 3 -
US - $370m
Int - $500m
WW - $870m

I could see it going higher but it's a busy month.


Man of Steel -
US - $250m
Int - $250m
WW - $500m


Hunger Games: CF -
US - $400m
Int - $300m
WW - $700m

Thor: TDW -
US - $250
Int - $350-450m
WW - $600-700m


After Earth I could see crossing $500m WW
Despicable Me 2 - $600m WW
The Wolverine - +/- $400m WW
Monsters U - $700m+ WW

 

[Marvin]

I'm curious to see how hunger games performs. On one end it's a sequel to a pop book adaptation, on the other, the curiosity has been satisfied, and there are many people that won't simply go based on that reason alone. Moreover unlike twilight it doesn't have that horny girl boy band fuel.
Moreover, the second book isn't all that good, though it is "bigger". And I would argue that lame direction aside, the story really helped that first movie. However, the slick visuals of lawarence will most likely be a better fit here than the last guy.
If Hunger games is the top dog in the third quarter, it will most likely be due to the lack of anything to challenge for the title.

I don't see Star Trek out performing Superman internationally, not this time and now with Nolan's name in the UK.

If it breaks that IM3 is RDJ's last outing as ironman, Marvel will have a huge hit on their hands.
-of course they will resign him(for a large sum) for avengers two.
-An avengers sequel without RDJ would be a disaster btw.

Enough things have happened so that Thor should make more money than the previous one.(how could it not).

I for one am excited to see how Fast 6 performs. As usual competition will be a factor.

 

[:eek:]

If Warner Bros. is hoping for 2013's Man of Steel to carry the torch left behind by Chris Nolan's Dark Knight trilogy, they're off to the right start.
Early last week, the studio debuted the first full trailer online (second overall when counting the summer's shorter teaser trailer) and it immediately made waves throughout the Internet. In fact, within 24 hours the film was tracking as highly as The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - during the middle of its release week - on our daily Twitter tracking.
Man of Steel yielded over 43,000 tweets on Tuesday, December 11 with an excellent 17:1 positive-to-negative comment ratio. The tweet count represented a 10,674 percent increase in Twitter activity from the day before.
To give an idea of how impressive that single day tweet total is for Man of Steel, it exceeded that of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2's 41,870 tweets generated on the day of its first full trailer's release back in June. The Twilight franchise has always had an incredibly strong following across social media platforms, and while the same can be said of comic book movies and their fans, this kind of interest level is a great sign when considering Superman's disappointing box office history after the early 1980s.
Man of Steel's Twitter activity was also near identical to that of The Dark Knight Rises when its first full trailer debuted online almost exactly one year ago. The Batman finale tallied 41,629 tweets on December 19, 2011, a 997 percent jump from the day before.
Another comparison of note: Marvel's The Avengers debuted its second trailer on February 29 of this year, generating 37,021 tweets on that day and representing an 1,161 percent increase in activity from the day before.
In short: so far, thanks to the large number of online fans and expanded interest that director Zack Snyder and producer Christopher Nolan bring to the franchise reboot, Warner Bros. and DC Comics are definitely hitting the right notes when it comes to the first stage of marketing for this highly anticipated summer tent pole.

 

[mclay18]

I'm curious to see how hunger games performs. On one end it's a sequel to a pop book adaptation, on the other, the curiosity has been satisfied, and there are many people that won't simply go based on that reason alone. Moreover unlike twilight it doesn't have that horny girl boy band fuel.

Yea-- no, that won't happen. The first movie had appeal to not only the book fans, but casual moviegoers, and it was marketed extremely well. I certainly didn't see the first movie making over $400M domestic, due primarily to fantastic word-of-mouth sustaining it throughout April.

Goodwill from the previous movie and fans of the books will turn out in droves for Catching Fire next year, regardless whether the book itself wasn't well-received. I can see this going $450M domestic and $750M worldwide.

Other predictions:

Iron Man 3 - $320M domestic, $750M worldwide
Star Trek: Into Darkness - $375M domestic, $600M worldwide
Fast & Furious 6 - $212M domestic, $650M worldwide
Hangover 3 - $235M domestic, $400M worldwide
Man of Steel - $300M domestic, $650M worldwide
Monsters University - $250M domestic, $800M worldwide
Despicable Me 2 - $235M domestic, $700M worldwide
The Wolverine - $154M domestic, $400M worldwide
Thor: The Dark World - $235M domestic, $650M worldwide
Frozen - $200M domestic, $650M worldwide
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - $305M domestic, $600M worldwide

Honestly, I can't conjure up a solid prediction for Pacific Rim, The Lone Ranger, The Host, 300: Rise of an Empire, RED 2, Kick-Ass 2, Jack the Giant Slayer and Oz: The Great & Powerful. They're all wild cards for me.