2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[TheIrishAvenger]

Yeah... G.I. Joe is going to be a huge failure for Paramount...

 

[acedrake]

I think The Man of Steel will be a surprise mammoth hit.

 

[:eek:]

I think The Man of Steel will be a surprise mammoth hit.

If it's a really good movie I don't think it is much of a surprise if it makes a lot of money. It is Superman after all, one of the most popular superheroes

 

[Ultimatehero]

/\ Just remember BATMAN BEGINS, the first film to the beloved Nolan trilogy, didn't do phenomenal business either right out of the gate. TDK and TDKR did.

 

[mclay18]

/\ Just remember BATMAN BEGINS, the first film to the beloved Nolan trilogy, didn't do phenomenal business either right out of the gate. TDK and TDKR did.

Oh, absolutely. Even with it burning off some demand with a Wednesday opening, it had a 4.2 multiplier coming off its opening weekend thanks to excellent word-of-mouth.

Maybe WB should push up the MOS release to Wednesday, June 12th and see if they can't generate that kind of word-of-mouth going into the weekend.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

You could argue (and I'm starting to see it myself) there's nothing else major in June to steal The Man of Steel's thunder. Maybe Monsters University and White House Down.

Batman Begins grew strong legs in part because the competition was so piss-poor for the rest of its first month in theaters. Realistically they're hoping for a Begins run (strong and steady).

 

[DoomsdayApex]

No Zombie movie has grossed even close to any Iron Man movie.

Unless you count I am Legend as a Zombie movie, which grossed as much, but Iron Man is a much bigger character now than he was in 08.

Iron Man 3 will gross way more than World War Z.

Nah, I'm talking about overall Zombie popularity nowadays. WWZ isn't going to outgross IM3 but Iron Man has taken a back seat to Zombies since The Walking Dead aired on AMC.

The zombie craze has been on a all-time high.

 

[chaseter]

I think WWZ is going to be a failure. I bet the budget is $150-200 million plus.

 

[terry78]

WWZ is like the first attempt at a big budget zombie flick where it's not just some centralized location with extras in costumes, so it will look aesthetically different than everything before it. If it works remains to be seen.

 

[chaseter]

It looks like rubbery cgi zombies so yes very different.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

WWZ will probably make 300m WW but be critically panned. It's basically I Am Legend 2.0.

 

[jmc]

You could argue (and I'm starting to see it myself) there's nothing else major in June to steal The Man of Steel's thunder. Maybe Monsters University and White House Down.

Batman Begins grew strong legs in part because the competition was so piss-poor for the rest of its first month in theaters. Realistically they're hoping for a Begins run (strong and steady).

Surely Monsters Uni is gonna be big. I can't think of a reason why it wouldn't be.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I think they waited too long for a follow-up. Can't see this matching $255M - what Monsters, Inc. did.

 

[:eek:]

/\ Just remember BATMAN BEGINS, the first film to the beloved Nolan trilogy, didn't do phenomenal business either right out of the gate. TDK and TDKR did.

A big difference is that Batman Begins was directed by a still relatively unknown Christopher Nolan, while the simple fact that he now is involved as a producer on Man of Steel probably raises anticipation over the level for BB before that movie was released. And Zack Snyder is a more established director now than Nolan was back in 2005, even if Snyder surely have been a hit or miss director so far when it comes to box office success

 

[Ultimatehero]

YThat will help but it won't bring in tons more from that. The biggest thing is SUPERMAN RETURNS = BATMAN & ROBIN effect. It's hurt EVERY reboot. Only exception is sky fall, which has 50 YEARS worth of films and thus obviously acts differently from this proven principle.

 

[Drizzle]

Nah, I'm talking about overall Zombie popularity nowadays. WWZ isn't going to outgross IM3 but Iron Man has taken a back seat to Zombies since The Walking Dead aired on AMC.

The zombie craze has been on a all-time high.

That may be, but TV and film are still two separate mediums and WWZ doesn't seem to pose a threat to other potential blockbusters.

 

[Moridin]

WWZ will probably make 300m WW but be critically panned. It's basically I Am Legend 2.0.

IAL made $585 million WW & wasn't critically panned...

Nah, I'm talking about overall Zombie popularity nowadays. WWZ isn't going to outgross IM3 but Iron Man has taken a back seat to Zombies since The Walking Dead aired on AMC.

How do you figure?

YThat will help but it won't bring in tons more from that. The biggest thing is SUPERMAN RETURNS = BATMAN & ROBIN effect. It's hurt EVERY reboot. Only exception is sky fall, which has 50 YEARS worth of films and thus obviously acts differently from this proven principle.

Skyfall isn't a reboot.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Lol. Yeah, meant more previous film in a franchise making a major impact. To be honest, operating after only two hours of sleep. But, I think the point is pretty much made. There can be a bad received Bond movie and the next can be a hit because the world is used to it fluctuating.

 

[terry78]

Some have been calling it an "unofficial" reboot due to the subject matter though.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Skyfall benefitted from very strong marketing campaign and little competition.

And with I Am Legend, You Mileage May Vary, but most people agree the ending sucked.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Also Wolverine? Is going to be really interesting. Are people going to just think of the brand X-Men? They loved X-Men first class and it's sequel will surely benefit. But, do they see Wolverine as the next X-Men film, thus it will benefit from that. Or will they see it as a sequel of Wolverine Origins, and thus be poorly received. It could go either way depending on if the audience sees it as the character or the brand having more importance. Will surely be an interesting thing to watch.

Skyfall benefitted from very strong marketing campaign and little competition.

And arguably being the best film of the season and/or one of the year. It's script was great. It's cinematography was breathtaking, I'll seriously be shocked and disappointed if it doesn't win and especially if it doesn't even get a nomination. And it was a crucial Bond film, especially for my generation, who grew up with M being our M. It still would have done great, perhaps not exceedingly, but still phenomenal no matter when it was released because all-in-all it had everything going for it film-wise and was one of the better blockbusters of the year.

 

[Shifty]

I think WWZ is going to be a failure. I bet the budget is $150-200 million plus.

There was lots of behind the scenes problems. Re-writes, the last third of the film was re-shot and of course it was pushed back from December 2012 to June 2013. So it is looking like a failure.

WWZ will probably make 300m WW but be critically panned. It's basically I Am Legend 2.0.

Yeah that seems about right but you never know the international markets could love it and doubles that number.

I think they waited too long for a follow-up. Can't see this matching $255M - what Monsters, Inc. did.

With inflation it did $350,785,500, so it should be able to get $255 today.

The re-release in 3D has to help. It has already pulled in $22 million. If Pixar could squeeze what it did out of Brave then MU should get $255. The audience has only grown with DVD, Bluray and TV. People who saw it 12 years ago can take their own kids.

Epic is just another Blue Sky film that will take in $150 m domestic and $600 m internationally so Monsters University has weak competition for kids movies and enough "Pixar Fans" will go see it.

Will it get $350 m? No, but it should be above recent Blue Sky and Dreamworks films.

 

[mclay18]

Another question mark is WB's The Seventh Son, a fantasy film they scheduled for mid-October of all months. First they scheduled it for February 15th, then pushed it back for Beautiful Creatures.

I don't know if they're trying to make October another 'hot' blockbuster month (like March is now), considering October is usually reserved for scary or Halloween-themed pics. They might be better pushing up the release a few weeks to October 4th.

 

[BestGirl]

Another question mark is WB's The Seventh Son, a fantasy film they scheduled for mid-October of all months. First they scheduled it for February 15th, then pushed it back for Beautiful Creatures.

I don't know if they're trying to make October another 'hot' blockbuster month (like March is now), considering October is usually reserved for scary or Halloween-themed pics. They might be better pushing up the release a few weeks to October 4th.

I hope they succeed. I'm all in favor of spreading out blockbuster season as much as possible.

 

[mclay18]

I hope they succeed. I'm all in favor of spreading out blockbuster season as much as possible.

Taken 2 did fantastic business in October, but not gangbusters (around $139M). I think once a non-Halloween/scary movie makes over $200M domestic with an October release, that's when studios will start spreading them out more.

I don't know how The Seventh Son will fare. It's ultimately up to how WB markets it, how high the budget is and how good it is. But October is packed as it is... maybe they should try and bump it up a month. September is usually considered dumping ground, but if you have a good movie that gets good marketing, it can make a lot of money with piss-poor competition.