2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I heavily doubt that because the movie's marketing was terrible.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I'd say with marketing it was around on-par with 'Identity Thief' in that department personally. And if not, as said, put up against it - if Thief was # 1 in it's first weekend, in it's second Wonderstone would have beat it. I think people will be surprised to see how 'The Croods' does this weekend. I want to see it, but I'm only expecting it to be # 2.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It just goes to taste, like others were saying. People liked the marketing for Identity Thief more and liked the commercials and trailers more.

 

[Frodo]

UH, Burt Wonderstone looked terrible. The trailer was awful, the commercials were awful, and the tracking was awful. I'm not surprised it bombed. It also has a terrible cinemascore (C+), which means word of mouth isn't going to be any better.

Yeah. I think its like the fourth bomb/flop in a row for WB. The last one was Jack the Giant Slayer , though I gotta say , i'm surprsed that is still in the top five.

 

[mclay18]

Yeah. I think its like the fourth bomb/flop in a row for WB. The last one was Jack the Giant Slayer , though I gotta say , i'm surprsed that is still in the top five.

I'm actually surprised at how it's stabilized after that second weekend drop. It's still going to be a huge bomb for WB/New Line, but that small third weekend drop is surprising. I didn't think the movie was bad at all, and hopefully the WOM is reflecting that.

But if The Great Gatsby, Hangover 3 and Man of Steel continue that streak of bombs.... WB is going to be in serious trouble.

 

[Ultimatehero]

There's no way Man of Steel is going to bomb. A Christopher Nolan produced film doesn't bomb. However, I don't think it's going to do the godly numbers some fans do. I think Superman Returns will hurt it, but Christopher Nolan's good name will partly bring in money to make up for that. Hopefully completely make up for it. But, no idea.

Hangover III might get hurt by Hangover II, but with this marketed as the "final" installment - those who've seen the previous two will probably turn up to finish it off. Usually sequels bring in less if the prior installment wasn't well received, but being the "final" installment might fix that.

The Great Gatsby... I don't know... how much money does it need to make? I'm seeing it bring in moderate box office. It's not going to do huge numbers. Old school fans of the book might be a little turned off. While new school fans of the book will probably love it. I'd say it's more teenage and college driven than older crowds due to the way its marketed. If they're really smart, they'll have a couple of classic TV spots that aren't too hip hop for them older folk.

 

[jacobed]

Haha that would be funny though I.highly doubt it

 

[redhawk23]

There's no way Man of Steel is going to bomb. A Christopher Nolan produced film doesn't bomb. However, I don't think it's going to do the godly numbers some fans do. I think Superman Returns will hurt it, but Christopher Nolan's good name will partly bring in money to make up for that. Hopefully completely make up for it. But, no idea.

Hangover III might get hurt by Hangover II, but with this marketed as the "final" installment - those who've seen the previous two will probably turn up to finish it off. Usually sequels bring in less if the prior installment wasn't well received, but being the "final" installment might fix that.

The Great Gatsby... I don't know... how much money does it need to make? I'm seeing it bring in moderate box office. It's not going to do huge numbers. Old school fans of the book might be a little turned off. While new school fans of the book will probably love it. I'd say it's more teenage and college driven than older crowds due to the way its marketed. If they're really smart, they'll have a couple of classic TV spots that aren't too hip hop for them older folk.

If WB is smart they'll play up the whole 75th anniversary angle for Superman.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It worked for Bond.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Anniversary's work. But, Skyfall stood on its own. It's my favorite Bond film. Audiences really seemed to be taken to it, not just because it was a Bond film but because it was just an extraordinarily well done film. It would have made that money without that too probably. But, yeah - that would be another way to cover up SR. The more you have people talking about, the less you have them talking about SR - and that's a good thing.

 

[jacobed]

Man of Steel is going to do huge huge numbers

 

[Marvin]

Anniversary's work. But, Skyfall stood on its own. It's my favorite Bond film. Audiences really seemed to be taken to it, not just because it was a Bond film but because it was just an extraordinarily well done film. It would have made that money without that too probably. But, yeah - that would be another way to cover up SR. The more you have people talking about, the less you have them talking about SR - and that's a good thing.

Not sure how you can't simply apply your rational about Skyfall to MoS. Beyond the fact that as badly as Returns was received(I recall it doing better than begins), it wasn't as poorly received as the previous Bond film.

All this talk of Skyfall standing on it's own(no real mention of zeitgeist hype/fever), and to not think the same of this next Superman chances. Visuals have a mega chance of delivering, comic book story line has a mega chance of delivering and same for acting. Nolan's name or no, this film, more than most others has really good odds of running away with it. Not much unlike Skyfall did.
It's funny Returns has so many fans around here when it's obvious that film stunk lol.

 

[Ultimatehero]

With James Bond you have a film franchise that has been around for fifty years. You have, what is it 20 films now? Everyone has learned that the last film doesn't determine the quality of the following film. Therefore, it doesn't qualify.

Look at Spider-Man, X-Men, Batman, the list goes on and on within the superhero genre. A franchise just "starting out." I'm tired. I don't feel like posting the facts and statistics. But what they show is that when a film is received poorly, typically the sequel or (as Amazing Spider-Man and partly First Class showed) reboot too gets less money than it's predecessor no matter how good it is. With X-Men. Box office wise X-Men 2 < X-Men 3 > Wolverine > First Class (I'm pretty sure we can all agree quality, visuals, comic book storyline, and acting didn't beat the pattern there - nor with Batman Begins (the start to Nolan's epic Batman franchise)). And that's just two example of the pattern that has shown up time and time again with these films.

Basically film franchises with 6 films to their name or less in no way, shape, or form are regarded anywhere near franchises that have 20 or more films to their name. People have somehow learned how it works there. It's the exception to the usual. Not so in other places as the audiences have shown us.

Hey, I hate it and think it's stupid as much as the next guy. The previous film or take should in no way reflect upon the sequel or reboot. A film should have as much chance as any other regardless of the previous film. But numbers never lie. They're going to need to erase Superman Returns from the audience's head and talking over it would help to alleviate it. And this is coming from a guy who liked SR.

And Warners knows this. They faced this with Batman Begins after Batman and Robin. And First Class faced this after X-Men 3 and Wolverine was a serious franchise killer. And Amazing Spider-Man had to earn back audiences' for SONY after Spider-Man 3 as well. Basically, I'd like Man of Steel be an exception to the rule. But, I have yet to see anything different. Every superhero franchise has thus far stuck by this pattern no matter how good the revival.

-------------

That said in terms of superhero films, they're all facing this to a degree.

When audiences are thinking Iron Man 3 - do their heads go to The Avengers or the poorly received Iron Man 2?

When audiences think Wolverine - are they going to think of X-Men: First Class or the horribly received Wolverine: Origins.

So there, I'd say it has slightly less of a chance as Iron Man 3 because that had a buffer film that might sway people off of the film. But, a better shot than Wolverine which although it has a buffer film - it seems like one that audiences might look past due to the horrible stench of Origins still.

So oddly they're all coming up and challenging that same pattern this summer.

 

[mclay18]

Man of Steel is going to do huge huge numbers

The sequel, definitely.

But for this pic, I can't see the awareness and wannasee buzz tracking being insanely high for its opening weekend (thanks to SR souring some people on the franchise). The critic reviews and pre-release Twitter/FB buzz might help, but it ultimately hinges on the film's qualities.

If Man of Steel gets to ASM numbers, the stage is set for the sequel to be HUGE.

 

[darkslayer101]

There's no way Man of Steel is going to bomb. A Christopher Nolan produced film doesn't bomb. However, I don't think it's going to do the godly numbers some fans do. I think Superman Returns will hurt it, but Christopher Nolan's good name will partly bring in money to make up for that. Hopefully completely make up for it. But, no idea.

Hangover III might get hurt by Hangover II, but with this marketed as the "final" installment - those who've seen the previous two will probably turn up to finish it off. Usually sequels bring in less if the prior installment wasn't well received, but being the "final" installment might fix that.

The Great Gatsby... I don't know... how much money does it need to make? I'm seeing it bring in moderate box office. It's not going to do huge numbers. Old school fans of the book might be a little turned off. While new school fans of the book will probably love it. I'd say it's more teenage and college driven than older crowds due to the way its marketed. If they're really smart, they'll have a couple of classic TV spots that aren't too hip hop for them older folk.

ya i think MoS has like a 20% chance of hitting 1billion....but if the word of mouth is good then it might easily pick up 1billion

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yes Wonderstone would have done better because you liked it and IDT is hated because you and people online didn't like it...Oh how I wish I lived in your fantasy world where personal preference means anything when it comes to which movie most people liked. Okay, I hate the Transformers movies, that means that everyone else hates them as well! My wish will come true any minute now!

Reader Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and IMBD mean nothing. I don't much care for Cinemascore either.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I_SEE, you are jumping at random things that make absolutely no sense at all and exaggerating so clearly that anybody on here can see that from a mile away. I mean, it's almost like a bug crawled up your ass or something. My main question is why do you like forcing words down my throat? First it was your random insult against Jim Carrey out of left field after all I said was I was a Jim Carrey fan, then it was saying I saw a 30 million opening when I didn't say anything of the sort and just said I see it as doing better, now you're acting like I'm saying my opinion is law. When anybody who knows me knows I never treat that as the case and sometimes have blatantly said on these forums "there is no truth. Truth is subjective." Or something along those lines. I'm tired. My main question being, why are you working so hard to make this sound personal? It's almost like I offended you in some way since my FIRST post or are you always this way? And I know you will try to come up with some personal exaggeration in your next post, or you might surprise me and not do that, but I wouldn't be surprised if you certainly do at this point. Basically your tone just, even from your first reply, seemed intensely heated like I killed your dog or something. My main question being - what exactly did I do?

 

[rayc1971]

Anniversary's work. But, Skyfall stood on its own. It's my favorite Bond film. Audiences really seemed to be taken to it, not just because it was a Bond film but because it was just an extraordinarily well done film. It would have made that money without that too probably. But, yeah - that would be another way to cover up SR. The more you have people talking about, the less you have them talking about SR - and that's a good thing.

I have friends who were not bond fans but loved skyfall as a stand alone film

 

[Ultimatehero]

Exactly. While I like James Bond films, I've never seen a lot of them as excellent. Just a select few. So I consider myself a "moderate" fan. Basically, trying to say through sleepy stupor is that I think that definitely had something to do with it. That it wasn't just a great Bond film, but a great film period thus drawing in a wider audience.

 

[Marvin]

Basically film franchises with 6 films to their name or less in no way, shape, or form are regarded anywhere near franchises that have 20 or more films to their name. People have somehow learned how it works there. It's the exception to the usual. Not so in other places as the audiences have shown us.

40 years of bond meager success means nothing if the last 20 years have been forgettable with 2 exceptions(of which both didn't really do that well either). Moreover today's big box office determining demo really isn't about connery and dalton and all those gentlemen. That most recently solace film was probably all many people need to put their casual bond interest to bed.

If Xmen had been around for 40 years, XfC would have still suffered due to X3/Origins.

The point being Skyfall made over a billion, it made more than any nolan bat film(and without 3D as many avengers haters like to point out). Where the heck where all these bond fans before? They have never ever made a showing of presence such as this. You think it came from a 40 years pedigree of build up that disregarded the state of the franchise.

I say it came from a wonderful modern sell, that capitalized on a very well known if not somewhat unexciting property in the form of a singular well put together film that had people talking, and more importantly did away and reinvented many tropes we've come to expect from the 40plus year series.. "Hey, everyone, bond isn't super any more and he wears scarves and stands on buildings in his actual brit city locations. For the first time ever, M isn't some all knowing witch in mount doom, but running for her life, gone are the super gadgets and old Q and so on and so fourth....come watch and be apart of the water cooler talk tmr at work.."

I think MoS has a good shot at doing similar things, For superman of all people to throw his first cinematic punch in a Snyder film(IV doesn't exist) alone wil break all kinds of tropes, especially in an avengers/tdk(hype stealing) free summer. If Skyfall was just a hit I'd agree with you, but it hit bigger than even Ledger did with all his hype. I don't attribute that to repetitive 20 film legacy. I credit that to a sell.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Hey, you're free to believe it. And free to theorize however you want about it. The point being I have yet to see even one well regarded superhero film - First Class, Batman Begins, and Amazing Spider-Man - beat the pattern. And just like last summer how I predicted Amazing Spider-Man would turn out because of such pattern. There has yet to even be one exception to these franchises that have less than a cumulative of ten films. Why that is, honestly I don't know. I do think it has to do with Bond films constantly ranging in quality. Only that that's what is in the statistics. If Man Of Steel gets by, it won't just be good - it will be a walking on water level miracle for being the sole exception. I'll state it again here. It won't be as most people want to believe, but after it's revived the sequel will be. And this is coming from a guy who MoS is my most anticipated movie, I'm just not putting hope or stock into it being a sole exception to the pattern. Because for franchises with a lot less movies than Bond, particularly in the superhero genre, that has never been the case.

As for water cooler talk and severely breaking the mold -- isn't that what somebody would have said about Batman Begins? That did absolutely nothing there. Just a lot of talk. Not a lot of results. And then in the second film the numbers exploded off the charts. Not just because of Ledger, because there was hype long before he died. But because of the good faith in the revival Batman Begins accumulated.

As said, you're free to believe - I just can't personally see it being the sole exception because not one superhero movie has broken that pattern yet. And if it was just an extremely different take - Batman Begins would have been it. That film kick-started a new wave in how these films and others are approached. Still, it fell victim to the pattern.

 

[Pickle-El]

I_SEE, you are jumping at random things that make absolutely no sense at all and exaggerating so clearly that anybody on here can see that from a mile away. I mean, it's almost like a bug crawled up your ass or something. My main question is why do you like forcing words down my throat? First it was your random insult against Jim Carrey out of left field after all I said was I was a Jim Carrey fan, then it was saying I saw a 30 million opening when I didn't say anything of the sort and just said I see it as doing better, now you're acting like I'm saying my opinion is law. When anybody who knows me knows I never treat that as the case and sometimes have blatantly said on these forums "there is no truth. Truth is subjective." Or something along those lines. I'm tired. My main question being, why are you working so hard to make this sound personal? It's almost like I offended you in some way since my FIRST post or are you always this way? And I know you will try to come up with some personal exaggeration in your next post, or you might surprise me and not do that, but I wouldn't be surprised if you certainly do at this point. Basically your tone just, even from your first reply, seemed intensely heated like I killed your dog or something. My main question being - what exactly did I do?

She's always that way....it's not you.

 

[Pickle-El]

Hey, you're free to believe it. And free to theorize however you want about it. The point being I have yet to see even one well regarded superhero film - First Class, Batman Begins, and Amazing Spider-Man - beat the pattern. And just like last summer how I predicted Amazing Spider-Man would turn out because of such pattern. There has yet to even be one exception to these franchises that have less than a cumulative of ten films. Why that is, honestly I don't know. I do think it has to do with Bond films constantly ranging in quality. Only that that's what is in the statistics. If Man Of Steel gets by, it won't just be good - it will be a walking on water level miracle for being the sole exception. I'll state it again here. It won't be as most people want to believe, but after it's revived the sequel will be. And this is coming from a guy who MoS is my most anticipated movie, I'm just not putting hope or stock into it being a sole exception to the pattern. Because for franchises with a lot less movies than Bond, particularly in the superhero genre, that has never been the case.

As for water cooler talk and severely breaking the mold -- isn't that what somebody would have said about Batman Begins? That did absolutely nothing there. Just a lot of talk. Not a lot of results. And then in the second film the numbers exploded off the charts. Not just because of Ledger, because there was hype long before he died. But because of the good faith in the revival Batman Begins accumulated.

As said, you're free to believe - I just can't personally see it being the sole exception because not one superhero movie has broken that pattern yet. And if it was just an extremely different take - Batman Begins would have been it. That film kick-started a new wave in how these films and others are approached. Still, it fell victim to the pattern.

For MOS, it is in a unique position among the re-starts. It DOES have a Producer and writer that have good faith among the general audience and the online community, with a top-notch Oscar-filled cast.


It will be interesting to see how those pre-release surveys start to filter out on sites like Deadline and BOM in the coming months.

 

[Ultimatehero]

They're all really unique and coming off something in a way.

1) Iron Man 2 --> Iron Man 3
2) Superman Returns --> Man of Steel
3) Wolverine: Origins --> Wolverine

1) Has the buffer zone of 'The Avengers,' but will the audiences still see it as just a sequel to Iron Man 2?
2) Has the name Christopher Nolan attached, but how much will it drown out Superman Returns?
3) Is in a really really deep hole due to Origins and might seriously underperform because of it, however it also comes in after First Class so will audiences be more forgivable and give it a shot?

Basically every superhero film this summer is going to be interesting to watch to see how audience's reactions reflect the prior pattern to what these new buffers although separate and names can do.

Man of Steel and Iron Man 3 having the easier climb up. Wolverines, unsure how much the audience will weigh in Origins after First Class, seems to have the much steeper climb to make.

 

[danoyse]

I wouldn't say they are that far apart. Both go after a more PG crowd. Light hearted. Against a rated R horror thriller. Which one sounds more like Oz?

Neither of them sound like Oz. There was just little interest in Wonderstone.

Also 'Identity Thief' may have had a strong first weekend, but there's no way I can see its word of mouth being that strong. When I went nobody in the theater laughed, credits rolled with dead silence, and it lacked any heart to it. So that would have accounted for its first weekend, but I can't see any correlation between that and the following weeks.

Are you guessing? Besides being one of the highest-grossing opening weekends for an R-rated comedy (the same weekend as a major blizzard on the East Coast), it had minimal drops in the weeks that followed, and even regained first place again two weeks after it opened. It's the first film to go past $100 million this year.

You may not have liked it, but it played in other theaters besides yours, and has played very, very well. I haven't seen it, so I can't say whether it was good or not, but there's no argument that it's been a big hit with audiences.

It's weak competition, but when audiences don't like movies, those flop. This one clearly hasn't.