Ant-Man and The Wasp Ant-Man and the Wasp - Box Office Discussion

[rayc1971]

Well, this isn't them taking a hit, not even a small one. It's aiming for $600M worldwide on a $162M production budget. That's a win. Not every MCU movie can/has to be another juggernaut.

Any disappointment over these numbers is the result of high expectations(which are understandable considering the MCU's track record), not the result of the movie actually doing bad financially, because it simply isn't.

exactly with that budget the film is not tanking unlike solo that cost 300mill

 

[Blade X]

The vast vast majority of people in the world have never even heard of legends of tomorrow or the Atom.

And your point is......?

 

[iEquinox]

Came in slightly higher than estimated with $29,097,859(-61.6%).

Pretty good hold all things considered, lower drop than Homecoming despite the Thursday previews making up a bigger percentage of the opening weekend. $200M+ looks like a good target and beating the first Ant-Man's domestic(and OS) total should be a done deal.

Exact totals after Sunday:

Domestic: $133,083,084
+ Foreign: $150,932,615
= Worldwide: $284,015,699

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

(highest final domestic MCU sequel multipliers in blue/lowest in red for first weekend to 10 days cume multipliers)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Came in slightly higher than estimated with $29,097,859(-61.6%).

Pretty good hold all things considered, lower drop than Homecoming despite the Thursday previews making up a bigger percentage of the opening weekend. $200M+ looks like a good target and beating the first Ant-Man's domestic(and OS) total should be a done deal.

Exact totals after Sunday:

Domestic: $133,083,084
+ Foreign: $150,932,615
= Worldwide: $284,015,699

Excellent! Per deadline it’s OS numbers are running 33% ahead of the original’s. If that were to hold everywhere that still leaves a shot at $650 million WW alive. I don’t think it gets there but over 600 looks very good, at least to me, right now.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Well, this isn't them taking a hit, not even a small one. It's aiming for $600M worldwide on a $162M production budget. That's a win. Not every MCU movie can/has to be another juggernaut.

Any disappointment over these numbers is the result of high expectations(which are understandable considering the MCU's track record), not the result of the movie actually doing bad financially, because it simply isn't.

QFT

QF those who erroneously think there WONT be an AM3. There WILL. And it’s gonna be the best entry especially if they include more MCU characters such as Hulk, Fantastic Four, etc.

 

[Stark Bauer]

(highest final domestic MCU sequel multipliers in blue/lowest in red for first weekend to 10 days cume multipliers)

Please explain your analysis to me like I’m 5

 

[Lilbaz]

This discussion for me is usually if i liked the film:

1/ reward the studio for doing it that way (encourages them to make films i like).
2/ makes enough so they do a sequel.

Do we really want a third ant man film though? Loved them both but think 3 might be pushing it.

 

[Hammer!]

And your point is......?

It’s laughable to even suggest that would have a positive or negative impact on an Ant Man movie.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Please explain your analysis to me like I’m 5

Each number is the cumulative gross on a particular day divided by the first weekend.

The final multiplier is the final gross divided by the first weekend.

Higher is better.

Ant-Man 2's first 10 days have done well within the context of MCU sequels. As long as it keeps pace (similar high numbers) with the other movies that have the higher multipliers, it will finish above average for an MCU sequel. The MCU sequel average is now a 2.5 multiplier. That utterly average multiplier would have Ant-Man 2 finishing with $189.5M domestically.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Each number is the cumulative gross on a particular day divided by the first weekend.

The final multiplier is the final gross divided by the first weekend.

Higher is better.

Ant-Man 2's first 10 days have done well within the context of MCU sequels. As long as it keeps pace (similar high numbers) with the other movies that have the higher multipliers, it will finish above average for an MCU sequel. The MCU sequel average is now a 2.5 multiplier. That utterly average multiplier would have Ant-Man 2 finishing with $189.5M domestically.

Thank you kindly! Great analysis and expert opinion. I really appreciate your input!

 

[Raiden]

This discussion for me is usually if i liked the film:

1/ reward the studio for doing it that way (encourages them to make films i like).
2/ makes enough so they do a sequel.

Do we really want a third ant man film though? Loved them both but think 3 might be pushing it.

Both Ant-Man and AMATW have had next to zero cameo from the Avengers (exception being Falcon in Ant-Man), but when they make #3 I believe Marvel will go all out and let a few Avengers to show up in the sequel, similar to what they did for Thor and Cap. And I do believe that it was a mistake to have AMATW be so standalone and not get any involvement with IW, but Avengers 4 will likely help to get Ant-Man become more popular.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Little update from Mendelson:

Walt Disney's Ant-Man and the Wasp earned around $5.5 million (+54% from Monday), as it sets out to prove that it can be closer (in terms of legs) to Spider-Man: Homecoming than Captain America: Civil War. A $142.16m 12-day domestic total for a $160m sequel that has only opened in half the world and should be over/under $300m worldwide by today is no chump change. In the end, the second Ant-Man may merely sell about as many tickets as the first Ant-Man ($180m in 2015, around $199m adjusted). A $200m domestic total is still possible. But even if it falls short, we should still remember how few sequels in this day-and-age open bigger and gross more than their predecessors in North America. That Ant-Man and the Wasp has opened higher and may tie the gross of its predecessor is a win.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...d-the-wasp-may-only-tie-ant-man/#524273791b32

 

[ultradog]

Little update from Mendelson:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...d-the-wasp-may-only-tie-ant-man/#524273791b32

Yeah, this is exactly what I'm disappointed about - that the sequel will only sell as many tix as the original. That's mostly what I follow the box office of these films for - not to see that they are profitable, but to see how much the MCU is growing and pervading the culture of the United States. I was hoping (ok, expecting) this to reach Doctor Strange levels based purely on the love the MCU has been getting these last few years.

I think the sequel gained a lot of MCU devotees since 2015, but lost an equal number of ticket sales for this just being a more typical Hollywood sequel, instead of one of the more integrated chapters of the MCU. Plus being the third MCU film in 5 months - that's a little oversaturation. Even delaying it a month would have helped a little. Call me greedy, I realize most sequels make less than the original - Deadpool is the most recent prime example.

 

[DarkKnight88]

we should still remember how few sequels in this day-and-age open bigger and gross more than their predecessors in North America. That Ant-Man and the Wasp has opened higher and may tie the gross of its predecessor is a win.

Except for Marvel sequels. Captain America 2, Thor 2, Guardians 2... that logic of sequel not making as much doesn't work here.

Iron Man, Avengers and Deadpool are exceptions because those first films were such unexpected uber blockbusters at the box office. Ant-Man was not. It played more like the above mentioned titles. This sequel has no reason it shouldn't have improved.

 

[iEquinox]

that logic of sequel not making as much doesn't work here.

But it doesn't apply here in the first place. It's guaranteed to outgross the first one.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

But it doesn't apply here in the first place. It's guaranteed to outgross the first one.

Well, Mendelson is using ticket-price-inflation adjusted dollars, where it may not, not raw grosses.

Of course, if we’re using that metric IW is a disappointment since it didn’t beat Avengers.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, this is exactly what I'm disappointed about - that the sequel will only sell as many tix as the original. That's mostly what I follow the box office of these films for - not to see that they are profitable, but to see how much the MCU is growing and pervading the culture of the United States. I was hoping (ok, expecting) this to reach Doctor Strange levels based purely on the love the MCU has been getting these last few years.

I think the sequel gained a lot of MCU devotees since 2015, but lost an equal number of ticket sales for this just being a more typical Hollywood sequel, instead of one of the more integrated chapters of the MCU. Plus being the third MCU film in 5 months - that's a little oversaturation. Even delaying it a month would have helped a little. Call me greedy, I realize most sequels make less than the original - Deadpool is the most recent prime example.

I would have preferred a significant gap after the huge 1-2 punch of BP and IW straight after each other.

 

[rayc1971]

its projected at 15mill this weekend that would put it at 163mill in its 3rd weekend so i think 200mill is still there to get domestic

 

[rayc1971]

if the movie makes 200mill domestic it will be very similar to thor and thor 2 thor 1 made 181mill thor 2 206mill antman 180mill antman and the wasp 200mill? so i dont see why all the doom and gloom

 

[Adder]

But it doesn't apply here in the first place. It's guaranteed to outgross the first one.

This. If anything Antman is proving that the MCU continues to perform above the norm for sequels.

 

[Stark Bauer]

if the movie makes 200mill domestic it will be very similar to thor and thor 2 thor 1 made 181mill thor 2 206mill antman 180mill antman and the wasp 200mill? so i dont see why all the doom and gloom

Because people here are expecting it to make over $500 billion dollars...

Sigh

AMATW will make at least $190 million and as much as $210 Million. It’s profitabke and that’s all that matters. As long as it is profitable, we will see a third movie. And I believe that’s what most of us here want to see. An even better movie, possibly the best entry in the Ant Man franchise that could potentially have cameos from the Hulk and Fantastic Four!

 

[Raiden]

Because people here are expecting it to make over $500 billion dollars...

Sigh

AMATW will make at least $190 million and as much as $210 Million. It’s profitabke and that’s all that matters. As long as it is profitable, we will see a third movie. And I believe that’s what most of us here want to see. An even better movie, possibly the best entry in the Ant Man franchise that could potentially have cameos from the Hulk and Fantastic Four!

I agree. But while I like Payton Reed a lot and he's an actual geek about comic books, I won't mind if they give it to somebody else to "shake things up". No Marvel trilogy ever had just one director who stayed for all three movies anyway; Iron Man, Capt. America, Thor, and Avengers all changed hands and all benefited from such a move. A director like Taika could give the next movie a fresh angle and a new approach that can make it more interesting to watch, which will only help not hurt the box office.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I agree. But while I like Payton Reed a lot and he's an actual geek about comic books, I won't mind if they give it to somebody else to "shake things up". No Marvel trilogy ever had just one director who stayed for all three movies anyway; Iron Man, Capt. America, Thor, and Avengers all changed hands and all benefited from such a move. A director like Taika could give the next movie a fresh angle and a new approach that can make it more interesting to watch, which will only help not hurt the box office.

That will change in 2020. With the release of GotG3.

 

[8ulk87]

Anyone knows when Ant-Man 2 opens in China ?

The original did 105,4 mil there so i expect at least 100 mil for the sequel as well.
It will probably do 115-140 mil.

So 525-575 mil WW total is looking good. I dont know about 600+ mil though.