Are Studios Committing Movie Suicide?

[Doctor Jones]

I want FC to do well. I think Fox could be turning a new leaf. The A-Team was good, Predator's looks good, and Vaughn is directing FC with a rumor of Rodriguez doing Deadpool.

Plus, we'll see how well FC does because it doesn't have Wolverine in it. I mean we've ****ed him out as it is.

 

[Octoberist]

im sick of Wolverine. Even in the comics.

 

[Electrix]

Good chance. The franchise has had two straight unpopular films and this one is missing its biggest draw (Hugh Jackman).

There are two types of unpopular. Unpopular with the critics, and unpopular with the general audience. The critics were less kind to X3 and trashed Wolverine, but that didn't stop them both making around $400 million. The fact that Wolverine made $375 million despite being all over the internet a month beforehand and bad review buzz suggests it isn't unpopular with regular folks who are the ones that matter (to Fox anyway). Hence a Wolverine 2 on the way.

Green Lantern, Thor and Captain America deserve some time to shine on the big screen for their first films(I don't count that ****** Cap America movie that was made a few decades back). Fox and X-men have had plenty of films and it's gotten old and they should give that franchise a break. As Kahran Ramsus pointed out, this will be the first one without Jackman/Wolverine who was in fact the big and main draw of these films.

Green Lantern, Thor and Captain America will have their time to shine, and the X-Men franchise won't prevent that. How can it? The only way it could is if all those 3 suck and First Class is the only good superhero movie next year. The X-Men franchise is hardly some big bully stealing all the spotlight.

Even though Wolverine made over $375 million it was less than X2 and X3. People like Wolverine but they prefer X-Men movies more, which First Class will be. The franchise can continue without Wolverine, it's not like Spider-Man or Batman.

 

[Raiden]

I think Marvel should've moved Capt. America to the Winter, where it will have the BO all to itself and won't be lost in the middle of a very superhero-centric summer. Summer of 2011 will be similar to 2004, when Shrek 2, Pirates 2, and Spider-man 2 all came out within weeks of each other, but all three films ended up doing well. We'll see if that happens again next summer.

 

[Mace Dolex]

I agree, Wolverine only works best when he's in the X-Men but I hope X-Men FC is good even if does have teenagers in the roles.

Next summer looks to be a real mess of movies that my comic book store will have to keep up.

 

[xwolverine2]

who cares... movie studios owe us after this lame summer

 

[S.A.A.D.]

I still say bring on the madness,I'm in the I hope -X-Men:First Class bomb's boat too,this summer is one of the worst summers for movies. 2 movies worth seeing out of a bunch of other movies coming out this summer is such a joke and doesn't bode well for my cast/movie passes even though I haven't used them in a long time.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Most people have noticed early-mid Summer 2011...

...and cluttered it seems. With most of the already announced movies having near 100 million dollar budgets it seems like there all going to have trouble reaching the numbers that they could if they weren't so surrounded


And also (this was brought to my attention in the TRON:Legacy thread) the holiday movie season this year is pretty clustered too
TRON:Legacy
Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Yogi Bear
Gulliver's Travels

And its not like one of them is a kid's film so it would probably be the big winner. All of them are most likely be PG/family friendly (Tron is still PG but will probably be the darkest out of all of them). I know what I'm doing seeing Tron none of the other films really interest me, but casual movie goers might not be so decisive this far ahead

And to top that all off theyre all going to be in 3D. Theaters are trying to expand to make more 3D theaters, but they can only work so fast. Similar thing with 2011. Most of the films that early-mid summer are 3D too.

And if you look at holiday 2012. Mission Impossible IV, Alvin and the Chipmunks 3D and Sherlock Holmes 2 are being released the same day, with Tintin coming the week after. And 3/4 of them will be 3D

It's not a new thing for studios to release alot of movies close together (look at holiday 2008) but why do you think its becoming more common and "worse"? All these films so close together AND in 3D can only hurt ticket sales

Summer and winter 2011 are going to be hell.
However i can see alot of movies being pushed back.
May
Thor
POTC 4
Hangover 2
Kung Fu Panda 2

Considering that Disney just announced that they'll release both POTC 4 and Cars 2 in IMAX , i'm pretty sure that those movies won't be moved. Ditto Hangover and Panda . Hangover 2 is the perfect counterprogramming for all those PG-13 flicks and what's also helping is the first movie succes.
However while i ,like many dutch citizens , don't have problems with huge tocket prices ....i could see alot of audience members being annoyed that there will be a short frame to watch all those flicks in IMAX. With the exception of Hangover , all 4 movies will be shown in IMAX. Hell Thor will have a 2 week period till POTC 4 comes and POTC 4 will have just 1 week in IMAX.

June
X-Men FC
Green Lantern
Cars 2
Planet Of the Apes prequel

I think that both FC and Planet Of The Apes has a good chance of being moved. Correct me if i'm wrong but doesn't the Marvel agreement say that Fox (or any other studio) must have a Marvel movie in development within 3 years or they'll lose the rights ? Or should a marvel movie be released within 3 years. That basically could mean that Fox could move FC to either November or next year. As for Planet Of The Apes , Fox has the "advantage" of not being tied to some agreement to release the movie asap ( as is the case with FC). Personally speaking , while Planet Of the Apes has been in development for a long time AND also has a workable script , given the huge VFX slate i could definately see this being pushed back. Even though Fox has hired WETA to create the VFX , word is that WETA has a huge amount of shots to finish. Even if Fox decided to spread the VFX amongst many vendors ( as is the case with many movies) Fox could still wind up paying far more just to finish all the shots in record time.
Also the same argument for IMAX also holds up here. FC doesn't have a IMAX announcement (yet) but while Kung Fu Panda has a 3 week window , Green Lantern will have just 1 week in IMAX till Cars 2 is released.

July
TF3
Potter
Captain America
Cowboys & ALiens


As for december. I think that both Alvin & Chipmunks 3-d and Sherlock Holmes 2 will do well. Both movies cater to diferent audiences . Both predecessors competed with Avatar and performed well. If Knight and Day isn't a success, i think MI-4 will have a real problem competing with Sherlock Holmes.

 

[MadVillainy]

The only movie I can definetly see getting pushed back in First Class and thats because they havent even started filming while most movies coming out around the same time have started, are finished, or won't be a CGI heavy

The films of summer 2011 to beat are
May: Pirates 4
June: Cars 2
July: Deathly Hollows pt II (might also just be the film to beat that year period.

and while I think it would be cool to have Cap move to winter to be closer to Avengers. Holiday 2011 is even more stacked

 

[matrix_ghost]

The only movie I can definetly see getting pushed back in First Class and thats because they havent even started filming while most movies coming out around the same time have started, are finished, or won't be a CGI heavy

The films of summer 2011 to beat are
May: Pirates 4
June: Cars 2
July: Deathly Hollows pt II (might also just be the film to beat that year period.

and while I think it would be cool to have Cap move to winter to be closer to Avengers. Holiday 2011 is even more stacked

PLanet Of THe Apes also hasn't started filming yet and it will also be very CG heavy.
Also regardless of quality i think that TF3 must be included in your list. 400 million isn't an easy mark to hit and TF2 hit that mark despite the negrobots and decepticon testicles

 

[MadVillainy]

But what will make more money? The last Harry Potter film or Transformer 3. Im not saying Transformers wont make money but I will bet my bottom dollar HP will make more so it would be the film to beat for that month

And I forgot about Rise of the Apes will it be as CG heavy as first class? Wont the apes be make up? But still I guess I could see that maybe getting pushed back

 

[matrix_ghost]

But what will make more money? The last Harry Potter film or Transformer 3. Im not saying Transformers wont make money but I will bet my bottom dollar HP will make more so it would be the film to beat for that month

And I forgot about Rise of the Apes will it be as CG heavy as first class? Wont the apes be make up? But still I guess I could see that maybe getting pushed back

Both Potter and TF3 will be 3-d movies. While Potter has the edge over TF3 when it comes to total WW gross , domestic is pales in comparison. But i think both movies have potential to gross 1 billion each ...with the aid of 3-d of course.

And Rise Of The Apes will use WETA's VFX tech. for the Apes. No make up. Pure CG characters played by actors .

 

[MadVillainy]

Didnt know that about Rise of the Apes

I dont see what your saying about TF3. The last HP movie made more than the last Transformers movie, The last 2 HP movies combined made more than both the Transformers movies combined. Harry Potter is more liked, more known, and more respected. And as I said before, this is going to be the last HP film released for a LONG time because its the end of the series (and you can bet that theyre going to milk that in the advertising) while with Transformers they'll probably reboot in 5 years.

Im not saying TF wont make alot of money. From your post it seems like you think that I think that and I definitely don't. But HP will most likely make more money because it has more going for it. It'll be the biggest film in July, it'll be the biggest film of the summer, it might even be the biggest film of the year.

Also it doesnt matter as much about domestic if you have a bigger International grossing. Look at Ice Age 3, did pretty good domestic but then did gangbusters overseas to become the 3rd highest grossing film of 2009 (behind HP6 before Transformers 2)

 

[mclay18]

Sometimes, the studios just don't get it. If the prime spots are taken throughout the summer months (May-August) or the holiday (November & December), that doesn't mean every other month is a dumping ground. If the studio has a big budget movie they're confident in, why not release it during the off-season months? People will come and see a good movie if there's sufficient marketing and good word-of-mouth, regardless if kids are in school.

I mean, 300 and Alice in Wonderland grossed over $200M and $330M domestically. And those came out in March.

 

[Electrix]

International gross has become a lot more important over recent years. Avatar made nearly $2 billion outside of America, which is 70% of its total gross.

 

[MadVillainy]

Sometimes, the studios just don't get it. If the prime spots are taken throughout the summer months (May-August) or the holiday (November & December), that doesn't mean every other month is a dumping ground. If the studio has a big budget movie they're confident in, why not release it during the off-season months? People will come and see a good movie if there's sufficient marketing and good word-of-mouth, regardless if kids are in school.

I mean, 300 and Alice in Wonderland grossed over $200M and $330M domestically. And those came out in March.

I agree they should use other months. Its just that during the summer theres Summer break, in November there is Thanksgiving ,and December there's winter break so more kids are home have nothing to do in those months and can go see movies.
I think March is starting to move up in terms of movie real estate as you said ALice and Wonderland made alot of money in that slot

but you know I dont think August is used enough. Mostly August has been a dumping ground for the R rated and mediocre films of the summer. They should use August more.

 

[bullets]

Undoubtedly some films will get lost in the shuffle . POTC , Harry Potter , and Transformers should do solid but something like Rise of the Apes will under preform.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Didnt know that about Rise of the Apes

I dont see what your saying about TF3. The last HP movie made more than the last Transformers movie, The last 2 HP movies combined made more than both the Transformers movies combined. Harry Potter is more liked, more known, and more respected. And as I said before, this is going to be the last HP film released for a LONG time because its the end of the series (and you can bet that theyre going to milk that in the advertising) while with Transformers they'll probably reboot in 5 years.

Im not saying TF wont make alot of money. From your post it seems like you think that I think that and I definitely don't. But HP will most likely make more money because it has more going for it. It'll be the biggest film in July, it'll be the biggest film of the summer, it might even be the biggest film of the year.

Also it doesnt matter as much about domestic if you have a bigger International grossing. Look at Ice Age 3, did pretty good domestic but then did gangbusters overseas to become the 3rd highest grossing film of 2009 (behind HP6 before Transformers 2)

You listed 3 movies as the highest grossers of the summer : POTC4 , Cars 2 and Potter.
I'm saying that Tf3 should also be included in that list.

I definately agree that Potter will outgross TF. That's because internationally the Potter movies do very well whereas TF scores in the domestic markets. TF1 made 300 million in the states , TF2 400 million. By comparison the first Potter movie made 300 million and it took 8 years till Half Blood Prince arrived to hit that mark ( with the aid of IMAX 3-d).

ANd since you mentioned Ice Age 3. It did excellent business because of the 3-d. That is what will boost both POtter's and TF3 BO significantly. Lemme back down from a claim i made earlier. Potter has to gross 1 billion WW. Hell the last 2 ( or 3) Potter movies have made over 900 million without the aid of 3-d. Though i think that TF3 will own Potter on the domestic front. Like i said earlier . 400 million domestic isn't an easy mark to hit and TF2 did that despite horrible reviews whereas a critically acclaimed potter struggles to hit 300 million.

I think that the first deathly hallows movie might make more then the 2nd. I know that the 2nd one will be the final movie and everything is going to built up to it. BUt at the same time. It's going to be released in the summer and it's going to compete with other (3-d) movies such as .
By comparison the first DH movie will be released in November without alot of comp. But who knows. Maybe people will flock to see Potter.

As for Cars 2. I know it's PIXAR but it did receive the lowest scores of all pixar movies. Seems to me that they're cranking out Cars 2 more because of merchandising instead of having a really good script. I still haven't seen Cars 1.

 

[matrix_ghost]

International gross has become a lot more important over recent years. Avatar made nearly $2 billion outside of America, which is 70% of its total gross.

Though not nearly as important to greenlight sequels ( or movies in general). THe domestic numbers decide that.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Sometimes, the studios just don't get it. If the prime spots are taken throughout the summer months (May-August) or the holiday (November & December), that doesn't mean every other month is a dumping ground. If the studio has a big budget movie they're confident in, why not release it during the off-season months? People will come and see a good movie if there's sufficient marketing and good word-of-mouth, regardless if kids are in school.

I mean, 300 and Alice in Wonderland grossed over $200M and $330M domestically. And those came out in March.

Don't forget April as well.
I mean both Clash Of The Titans and How To Train Your Dragon performed well during that month.

 

[MadVillainy]

You listed 3 movies as the highest grossers of the summer : POTC4 , Cars 2 and Potter.
I'm saying that Tf3 should also be included in that list.

I definately agree that Potter will outgross TF. That's because internationally the Potter movies do very well whereas TF scores in the domestic markets. TF1 made 300 million in the states , TF2 400 million. By comparison the first Potter movie made 300 million and it took 8 years till Half Blood Prince arrived to hit that mark ( with the aid of IMAX 3-d).

ANd since you mentioned Ice Age 3. It did excellent business because of the 3-d. That is what will boost both POtter's and TF3 BO significantly. Lemme back down from a claim i made earlier. Potter has to gross 1 billion WW. Hell the last 2 ( or 3) Potter movies have made over 900 million without the aid of 3-d. Though i think that TF3 will own Potter on the domestic front. Like i said earlier . 400 million domestic isn't an easy mark to hit and TF2 did that despite horrible reviews whereas a critically acclaimed potter struggles to hit 300 million.

I think that the first deathly hallows movie might make more then the 2nd. I know that the 2nd one will be the final movie and everything is going to built up to it. BUt at the same time. It's going to be released in the summer and it's going to compete with other (3-d) movies such as .
By comparison the first DH movie will be released in November without alot of comp. But who knows. Maybe people will flock to see Potter.

As for Cars 2. I know it's PIXAR but it did receive the lowest scores of all pixar movies. Seems to me that they're cranking out Cars 2 more because of merchandising instead of having a really good script. I still haven't seen Cars 1.

This is misunderstanding

I didn't say those 3 would be the biggest of the summer. I meant that they will be the films to beat for THAT MONTH. Thats why I put the month before the title. I wasnt saying Cars 2 will make more than TF3, I wasnt saying Pirates would make more than HP7 pt 2. I was saying for the month of May my prediction is that Pirates 4 will be the highest grosser FOR THAT MONTH not for the whole summer

and I really don't know what youre talking about "maybe people will flock to see Potter". Its one of the top 10 highest grossing movie franchises based on the biggest book series in the last 10 years. Harry Potter is basically on movie steroids with all it has going for it. Movie series that is loved by both critics and the GA, books that are loved by both the critics and the GA, people are attached to the actors, its the last movie in the series, its in 3D, it will be a while until we see a new HP film in theaters (maybe someone else will adapt the books in 20 years). The only thing I see really stopping this movie from being a mega hit is a global natural disaster

 

[Heretic]

Surely some of these will get lost in the shuffle.

Fast Five would be the obvious pick, since that franchise was all but direct to video before a lucky revival...

X-Men will under-perform...especially considering that this is the second "in the past" movie in a row, so the story is not moving forward.

Rise Of The Apes will under-perform.

Comic book movies in general are in a bit of a slump...so Thor and Captain America afre in no way guaranteed blockbusters.

 

[MadVillainy]

Comic book movies in general are in a bit of a slump...so Thor and Captain America afre in no way guaranteed blockbusters.

What do you think about Green Lantern. It does have Ryan Reynolds and will be the most CG heavy superhero film I think due to the Oa scenes, but do you think it'll be a hit? I think it'll make by its budget but wont be Iron Man huge

 

[Octoberist]

Thor has the advantage of being the 'starter' for the Summer so it should get money. But it depends on the appeal of Thor in general, which is 'all over the map'.

 

[Heretic]

What do you think about Green Lantern. It does have Ryan Reynolds and will be the most CG heavy superhero film I think due to the Oa scenes, but do you think it'll be a hit? I think it'll make by its budget but wont be Iron Man huge

I'm up in the air about Green Lantern. I am CONVINCED that comic fans overestimate the public's awareness of the character. That could hurt the movie...but if it looks like an awesome space epic, then it could be big. I dont see it being a massive hit. There's so much competition that it will be hard to really have legs...though GL could be vastly different from anything else coming out.

Thor is lucky to be kicking off the summer...

Captain America has the potential to be a major, major failure. It isn't going to do well in lots of countries (which is why I think it will simply be called The First Avenger in many markets) and if the war is still going badly and the economy hasnt recovered then even Americans could look badly on the film.