The Dark Knight Batman's Competition in 2008

[kid bosco]

What does everyone consider a "failure" at the box office for TDK?

And what do you consider a "winner" at the box office for TDK?

 

[redfirebird2008]

theShape,

You're the one that doesn't make a bit of sense. You're acting like it's going to somehow kill TDK's chances of being big at the box office. I've got news for you. Chances are, if awareness is around 100% as WB claims, then people have already made up their mind one way or another because it's Batman. It's like Harry Potter, Star Wars, or any other franchise with more than 0 movies already in existence. If people know about it, then chances are very high that marketing will NOT determine whether they see it. It's either love for Batman or hatred for it. If one doesn't know by now, then they're pretty damn dumb. It's like when people would say they were undecided between George W. Bush and John Kerry. The two were polar opposites, so how the hell could so many people be dumb enough to be undecided until the day of the election?

And in case you haven't noticed, the movie already has a ridiculous amount of marketing. Actors not appearing on talk shows would not make a damn bit of difference compared to something like the Reese's promotion, which is in every single convenience store, grocery store, etc. in the nation. A talk show is insignificant by comparison. The movie will kick ass at the box office with or without the actors appearing on talk shows, so I'm not sure why you are acting like the sky is falling over something that means very little in the grand scheme of TDK's marketing. Iron Man was the one that needed more marketing than the likes of Indiana Jones or TDK, given that it was the first in its franchise and a less than highly-known character. Batman Begins provided plenty of marketing and anything on top of that is icing on the cake. The marketing for TDK has been a crapload stronger than Indiana Jones or any other movie this year so there's really nothing to worry about.

 

[redfirebird2008]

What does everyone consider a "failure" at the box office for TDK?

And what do you consider a "winner" at the box office for TDK?

Failure = anything below Batman Begins' ticket sales both domestically and worldwide. Batman Begins made $371 million worldwide in 2005, but that number adjusts up to around $400 million in 2008 dollars.

Winner = $240+ million domestic and $200+ million overseas. So $440 million or higher worldwide would be a winner. Anything between $400 and $440 million would be fairly expected.

 

[kid bosco]

theShape,

You're the one that doesn't make a bit of sense. You're acting like it's going to somehow kill TDK's chances of being big at the box office. I've got news for you. Chances are, if awareness is around 100% as WB claims, then people have already made up their mind one way or another because it's Batman. It's like Harry Potter, Star Wars, or any other franchise with more than 0 movies already in existence. If people know about it, then chances are very high that marketing will NOT determine whether they see it. It's either love for Batman or hatred for it. If one doesn't know by now, then they're pretty damn dumb. It's like when people would say they were undecided between George W. Bush and John Kerry. The two were polar opposites, so how the hell could so many people be dumb enough to be undecided until the day of the election?

And in case you haven't noticed, the movie already has a ridiculous amount of marketing. Actors not appearing on talk shows would not make a damn bit of difference compared to something like the Reese's promotion, which is in every single convenience store, grocery store, etc. in the nation. A talk show is insignificant by comparison. The movie will kick ass at the box office with or without the actors appearing on talk shows, so I'm not sure why you are acting like the sky is falling over something that means very little in the grand scheme of TDK's marketing. Iron Man was the one that needed more marketing than the likes of Indiana Jones or TDK, given that it was the first in its franchise and a less than highly-known character. Batman Begins provided plenty of marketing and anything on top of that is icing on the cake. The marketing for TDK has been a crapload stronger than Indiana Jones or any other movie this year so there's really nothing to worry about.

I agree with this because look at how huge the marketing and awareness is for this film and yet not one single actor in the movie has made a tv appearance to promote it yet....

I somehow feel though that if Bale and others do interviews that bringing up Heath will be the main focus of the interview....

 

[StorminNorman]

What does everyone consider a "failure" at the box office for TDK?

And what do you consider a "winner" at the box office for TDK?

Failure for me is anything short of 300 Mil, I think TDK needs to out sale Iron Man.

Winner is being the biggest movie of the summer.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

StorminNorman, you remember this statement from 5/21/08?

I am sorry - I meant IM won't make 275 - which I don't think it will.

Care to retract? If your predicton on IM is anything to go by, you will be in for a rude awakening when TDK comes out.

 

[batman11]

^Well, Iron Man hasn't hit 275 yet, it's still at 259, so you never know...

 

[StorminNorman]

StorminNorman, you remember this statement from 5/21/08?



Care to retract? If your predicton on IM is anything to go by, you will be in for a rude awakening when TDK comes out.

I am going to be incorrect by 20 Million Dollars - oh noes!

But I don't believe I was making a prediction here either

 

[redfirebird2008]

StorminNorman, you remember this statement from 5/21/08?



Care to retract? If your predicton on IM is anything to go by, you will be in for a rude awakening when TDK comes out.

So let me guess, the tables are turned and you're going to lowball TDK like he lowballed IM?

 

[Excel]

Fire and shape both know their ****. I believe Fire's points are all accurate...yet for some reason his total is just a little low.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

So let me guess, the tables are turned and you're going to lowball TDK like he lowballed IM?

Is $250 - 260 mil lowballing? Because that is where it will be. I said it from early on before IM's release that I would not be surprised if TDK finished 5th in the top 5 for the summer. I thought Indy would take in the most, followed by Narnia 2, Wall-E and Hancock. I was wrong on Narnia 2 but that has now been replaced by IM. So TDK has a good chance of still finishing 5th.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Is $250 - 260 mil lowballing? Because that is where it will be. I said it from early on before IM's release that I would not be surprised if TDK finished 5th in the top 5 for the summer. I thought Indy would take in the most, followed by Narnia 2, Wall-E and Hancock. I was wrong on Narnia 2 but that has now been replaced by IM. So TDK has a good chance of still finishing 5th.

You're giving Hancock way too much credit. It's been submitted twice to the MPAA and received an R rating both times. It's also getting negative buzz from early screenings. I don't care how big of a movie star Will Smith is, I think Hancock will do well to make $220ish million. A big reason for I Am Legend's success was its release date with almost no competition compared to what Hancock will be dealing with in the summer.

And no, I don't think $250-260 million is lowballing. I've predicted $260-270 million, although I won't be a bit surprised if it makes more than that.

 

[StorminNorman]

Is $250 - 260 mil lowballing? Because that is where it will be. I said it from early on before IM's release that I would not be surprised if TDK finished 5th in the top 5 for the summer. I thought Indy would take in the most, followed by Narnia 2, Wall-E and Hancock. I was wrong on Narnia 2 but that has now been replaced by IM. So TDK has a good chance of still finishing 5th.

Wall-E is a childrens movie that is not going to appeal to children.

It will not be the number one animated movie - Kung Fu Panda will be.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Wall-E is a childrens movie that is not going to appeal to children.

It will not be the number one animated movie - Kung Fu Panda will be.

Doubtful. But I am also doubtful that Wall-E will be anywhere near as big as some people are predicting. If you look at Pixar's most recent movies, even with fantastic reviews they have struggled compared to massive hits like Finding Nemo and Toy Story. I think Wall-E will make $220-230 million, which is great considering that Ratatouille barely made $200 million. Animation is no longer as novel as it once was.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

Failure = anything below Batman Begins' ticket sales both domestically and worldwide. Batman Begins made $371 million worldwide in 2005, but that number adjusts up to around $400 million in 2008 dollars.

Winner = $240+ million domestic and $200+ million overseas. So $440 million or higher worldwide would be a winner. Anything between $400 and $440 million would be fairly expected.

It's in the bag.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

Animation is no longer as novel as it once was.

Thank god.

I'm tired of all these Animation movies from Disney and Dreamworks.

Enough!

 

[FCEEVIPER]

What does everyone consider a "failure" at the box office for TDK?

And what do you consider a "winner" at the box office for TDK?

It's simple.

Winner: The third Batman movie is green lit, with the same or a greater amount for the production budget is given to complete the Nolan Trilogy.

Failure: None of the above happens.

My 2c.

I think TDK needs to out sale Iron Man.

I don't.

Winner is being the biggest movie of the summer.

BB was 8th for 2008 and it's considered a success, so...

 

[StorminNorman]

Doubtful. But I am also doubtful that Wall-E will be anywhere near as big as some people are predicting. If you look at Pixar's most recent movies, even with fantastic reviews they have struggled compared to massive hits like Finding Nemo and Toy Story. I think Wall-E will make $220-230 million, which is great considering that Ratatouille barely made $200 million. Animation is no longer as novel as it once was.

Wall-E apparently has no dialog for the first part of the movie, I don't see kids digging a movie about a beeping robot for that long.

Its going to probably be Pixar's best movie, but least commercial.

 

[StorminNorman]

BB was 8th for 2008 and it's considered a success, so...

BB also doesn't have a 10th of the hype TDK has...


The two are not at all comparable.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Wall-E apparently has no dialog for the first part of the movie, I don't see kids digging a movie about a beeping robot for that long.

Its going to probably be Pixar's best movie, but least commercial.

Best movie? I doubt that. Toy Story owns them all.

 

[The Battousai]

Best movie? I doubt that. Toy Story owns them all.

While Toy Story's awesome, it's not nearly as good as Ratatouille.

In regards to WALL-E, I have no idea what to think - the ads don't really tell much about what it will be like (a Pixar curse, it seems), so I can only hope it will be worthy of the Pixar name.

 

[The Shape]

theShape,

You're the one that doesn't make a bit of sense. You're acting like it's going to somehow kill TDK's chances of being big at the box office. I've got news for you. Chances are, if awareness is around 100% as WB claims, then people have already made up their mind one way or another because it's Batman. It's like Harry Potter, Star Wars, or any other franchise with more than 0 movies already in existence. If people know about it, then chances are very high that marketing will NOT determine whether they see it. It's either love for Batman or hatred for it. If one doesn't know by now, then they're pretty damn dumb. It's like when people would say they were undecided between George W. Bush and John Kerry. The two were polar opposites, so how the hell could so many people be dumb enough to be undecided until the day of the election?

I'd like to agree with you here, but you're wrong. Yes, the awareness is very high. No, I never indicated that the box office gross would be hurt without appearances by the actors. But would it be helped? Yes. Why do you think Batman is the focus of so many magazines covers and interviews? Even Christian Bale, who you claim is not famous, was just on the cover of Details magazing in order to promote TDK. THESE THINGS HELP. People read magazines. People watch TV. Hearing actors talk about their upcoming movie can help pique interest in the public. That's a fact, otherwise there would be no reason for them to do it. Even Indiana ****ing Jones had Shie and Harrison making the late-night rounds to promote the film. Did they really need to? Maybe not, but it certainly helped.

And in case you haven't noticed, the movie already has a ridiculous amount of marketing. Actors not appearing on talk shows would not make a damn bit of difference compared to something like the Reese's promotion, which is in every single convenience store, grocery store, etc. in the nation. A talk show is insignificant by comparison. The movie will kick ass at the box office with or without the actors appearing on talk shows, so I'm not sure why you are acting like the sky is falling over something that means very little in the grand scheme of TDK's marketing. Iron Man was the one that needed more marketing than the likes of Indiana Jones or TDK, given that it was the first in its franchise and a less than highly-known character. Batman Begins provided plenty of marketing and anything on top of that is icing on the cake. The marketing for TDK has been a crapload stronger than Indiana Jones or any other movie this year so there's really nothing to worry about.

How is a talk show insignifcant in comparison to other ways of marketing? PEOPLE WATCH TELEVISION. Just like they buy food or read magazines or suf the Net, people watch TV and its another necessary medium for advertising. I never once indicated that the movie would fail if the actors were not able to promote the movie before the release, but it may make a significant difference, especially because the short time period leading up to a film is so crucial and important for marketing. That's when the TV spots kick in, the actors get interviewed, exclusive sneak peaks are shown, etc.

 

[Stupify_me]

Failure for me is anything short of 300 Mil, I think TDK needs to out sale Iron Man.

Winner is being the biggest movie of the summer.

I have a feeling your gonna be considering TDK a failure then. It will make great money , but I doubt 300M is in it's future. Of course it is more likely than 210 like some people predict.

 

[kid bosco]

Even if TDK doesn't make $300 million it will still be on of the best movies of the year and the best movie of the summer.

 

[Stupify_me]

Even if TDK doesn't make $300 million it will still be on of the best movies of the year and the best movie of the summer.

I agree I think at the end of the year it will be number 3 or 4 when it comes to money but probably the best when it comes to quality.