Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[Kelly]

^ FF3 is in the bag. 300 million Worldwide is probable or damn close to it. Then add in DVD sales and the TV rights and you have quite a profit already. The 3rd film will happen. It has enough of an audience. Release it during the HOlidays. The franchise as it is won't stand up well to the mega-films.

Hmmmmmmmmmm....I still stand by 285 WW......I just don't think its going to get close to 300 million with what it has left.....its dropping theatres like flies in the US......it stayed in US theatres solid through August....that is not going to happen this time....

I just don't think it will make more than 285 million if that much.....I HOPE I'M WRONG....but I don't think I am......

I do not see a 3rd film as a definite at this point.......and I will be totally surprised if it is announced that there will be one........I'll be happy if its announced, extremely happy..................but i'll be SURPRISED.....

 

[Carp Man]

Yeah but I'm more credible. t:

 

[highguard]

What is the prediction for this weekend?

 

[highguard]

hmmm Mojo has the theater count at 601. It lost over 700 this weekend.

I think that is it. It will make 129 million at most now I think.

Tough.

 

[Advanced Dark]

We're over 128 with today's #'s and we should make a million this weekend or at least 800k. So 130 is possible when all is said and done.

 

[TheVileOne]

This movie is going to get Fox a lot of money....mark my words. And if it doesn't top 200 I will eat my own penis in public.

Just going through some of the delusions of grandeur in the earlier posts just as the movie was coming out.

They are kind of funny .

 

[Agent 194]

Maybe Fox News could cover this.

 

[ultimatefan]

According to this, http://www.comics2film.com/index.php?a=story&b=28146 Kevin Feige says they´re working on the SS spin-off, which to me smells like it´s gonna be the same deal that happened to DD: they´re gonna make the spin-off as if it were the sequel, it´s gonna tank and kill two franchises at once.

 

[Malus]

Just going through some of the delusions of grandeur in the earlier posts just as the movie was coming out.

They are kind of funny .

Just reading over the trolls -presumably grown men- who have nothing better to do with their time than bait people.

Pretty sad.

 

[Iron Maiden]

Amen, mi amigo.

Hey, Vile One, since we already know where you stand how about coming up with something new to say for once? Or are you like one of those old scratched LP's?

 

[Agent 194]

According to this, http://www.comics2film.com/index.php?a=story&b=28146 Kevin Feige says they´re working on the SS spin-off, which to me smells like it´s gonna be the same deal that happened to DD: they´re gonna make the spin-off as if it were the sequel, it´s gonna tank and kill two franchises at once.

Ahh,...don't tell me that. I have to remain positive about this.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Fox would waste money on a spin off.... Fox blew it they should just quit why they're behind.

 

[Carp Man]

July 19, 2007

WEEKLY TRACKING: 'Chuck & Larry' likely 2nd to 'Potter' w/$35M+; 'Hairspray' w/widest opening in modern history for a musical, but is New Line opening too wide?

by Steve Mason

Here are my predictions for the top 10 at the box office for Friday, July 20 thru Sunday, July 22:

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $40 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $35.7 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $22.5 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $21.75 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $7.1 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros) -- $4.1 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.5 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.9 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.8 million

 

[Visionary]

There's always the getting a much better director route.

 

[tviceman]

July 19, 2007

WEEKLY TRACKING: 'Chuck & Larry' likely 2nd to 'Potter' w/$35M+; 'Hairspray' w/widest opening in modern history for a musical, but is New Line opening too wide?

by Steve Mason

Here are my predictions for the top 10 at the box office for Friday, July 20 thru Sunday, July 22:

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $40 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $35.7 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $22.5 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $21.75 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $7.1 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros) -- $4.1 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.5 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.9 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.8 million

I think Harry Potter is going to take in less than that. Saturday and Sunday every Potter fan in the world will be buried in the new book. Also, Transformers has outperformed his weekend projections in both of it's first two weekends...

 

[GreenKToo]

i'm surprised that T.F. is still doing so good.

 

[Agent 194]

I say a different studio, different distribution company.

 

[Carp Man]

I say a different studio, different distribution company.

Mabey you could give it to WB (they like to waste money). They'd shell out big bucks,since everyone believs money = an out of sight movie. Some here think like the government, throw money at something and it will improve.

 

[Carp Man]

I think Harry Potter is going to take in less than that. Saturday and Sunday every Potter fan in the world will be buried in the new book. Also, Transformers has outperformed his weekend projections in both of it's first two weekends...

Up with TF's, Down with HP ? Figures. It's all a hunch.

 

[tviceman]

Up with TF's, Down with HP ? Figures. It's all a hunch.

The Transformer's comment I made was 100% FACT. I never said he was way off, I just said Transformer's outperformed his forecast. Steve Mason forecast 67 million ($70.5 actual) for Transformer's first weekend, and 34 million ($37.0 actual) for it's second weekend. What'd you predict again for it's second weekend? Oh yeah, between 21-28. So close!

I don't dislike the Potter movies; I'm stating what I think will happen. The last summer Potter movie had a 62% drop and it didn't have to compete with the release of a new book in it's own series that weekend. Potter will still have a good weekend, I just don't think it'll have a $40 million dollar good weekend.

 

[TheVileOne]

But what does Potter's current performance have at all to do with FF 2's box office right now? Little if any.

Potter dropping 55-60% doesn't have anything to do with Fantastic Four 2.

Once again, I get the feeling that people are trying to steer the BO discussion in a way to make the movies that have performed better than the one in said thread title look worse, and prop up Rise of the Silver Surfer.

 

[tviceman]

But what does Potter's current performance have at all to do with FF 2's box office right now? Little if any.

Potter dropping 55-60% doesn't have anything to do with Fantastic Four 2.

Once again, I get the feeling that people are trying to steer the BO discussion in a way to make the movies that have performed better than the one in said thread title look worse, and prop up Rise of the Silver Surfer.

You're right, it has very little if nothing to do with FF's box office performance anymore. I just replied to the top ten predictions for the weekend that was posted in this particular forum.

 

[highguard]

Well it is kinda obvious that the drops or holds of other movies helps put things in perspective for how FF has performed notwithstanding its disappointing take.

It lends credence to our expectations of this franchise if we can determine that it is not holding up well against other tentpoles and the reasons why.

There seems to be some kind of cannibalism going on but clearly that does not completely explain the the FF drops

I think we have a good idea what has happened and is happening.

FF is going to end up with like 129m, this week and next.

Can they squeeze a million out of the dollar theaters.

Also I did a comparrison to the international take and maybe it is too early to tell but the numbers don't seem to be beating the last film. some territories are up and some are down but they don't seem to be a decided edge for this film.

So I say the current territories will bring in say another 6 million total when all the numbers are updated.

That leaves the other territories to contribute about 60-70 like Albafan said and that puts the movie at 300 million even.

looks like that is the best it can do right now.

 

[Advanced Dark]

According to this, http://www.comics2film.com/index.php?a=story&b=28146 Kevin Feige says they´re working on the SS spin-off, which to me smells like it´s gonna be the same deal that happened to DD: they´re gonna make the spin-off as if it were the sequel, it´s gonna tank and kill two franchises at once.

Never happen that way. FF already had it's sequel and the SS film is moving forward. It's a totally different franchise in itself.

 

[TheVileOne]

How can you say it will never happen that way, when it's the same company?

Daredevil did not get a sequel with FF2, but they did the Elektra movie, Avi Arad calling it the "first sequel to Daredevil", and Daredevil got put on ice after that happened. You really can never say never in the movie business. When the most unlikely things that should happen actually do.

Several years later, and despite all the efforts, no Punisher sequel to speak of either. It just seems like Lionsgate really doesn't want to make it, even though "it was profitable."