BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[HammerDown]

For comparison DS:MOM and CA: Civil War scored basically the same result on their second Monday.

Overall CA:CW was at 300M while DS:MOM is at 297M. So yeah its probably heading to around 375.

 

[Iceman]

Good that it’s not far off CW dailies.

 

[InCali]

I’m going to see the movie again today. It’s playing at the local Cinemark at 11:35 on the XD premium screen in 3-D. I wanted to see it in 3-D earlier, but the showtimes didn’t work out. Now they do. Because it’s playing before noon it’s only $6.25 for a ticket. I’m always up for a bargain.

Edit: and because of discount day of course. AMC is missing the boat. They’re charging 13 bucks for a 3-D show on non-premium screens. And you wonder why some movie theaters do better than others.

The 3D was WAY worth it. They did a good job with it and it's one of those movies that actually benefits from the "enhancement". I really liked this movie and seeing it again for the second time helped fill in a couple of blanks.

 

[AvengerPA]

The movie made $5.3 million on Tuesday, up from Monday. The movie has now made over $300 million domestically.

 

[Iceman]

The movie made $5.3 million on Tuesday, up from Monday. The movie has now made over $300 million domestically.

Nice benchmark. Will see how far past that it is by theme end of this weekend.

 

[AvengerPA]

I anticipate $30 million for Strange in the third weekend, and it should surpass The Batman globally to lead the box office year.

 

[Iceman]

How are the overseas numbers holding up?

 

[Erzengel]

Dom $306M
Int $412M
Tot $718M

 

[InCali]

I anticipate $30 million for Strange in the third weekend, and it should surpass The Batman globally to lead the box office year.

Yeah. That sounds about right. My guess (not knowing the Int'l market that well) is that it's pushing up against 800M WW by the end of the weekend. I'd give it maybe another couple of weeks and it should pass it domestically. I would expect it to end up maybe just north of 380M DOM.

 

[Iceman]

I think a DS3 with a traditional Strange villain would do huge numbers and have a better all round reception. It could open big but have better legs, especially if it’s anywhere near the next MCU event film and Strange plays an important part in it (like with IW).

 

[Typhoon22]

I think a DS3 with a traditional Strange villain would do huge numbers and have a better all round reception. It could open big but have better legs, especially if it’s anywhere near the next MCU event film and Strange plays an important part in it (like with IW).

If that had happened it would have been a better movie for sure and have better legs/WOM.

1B is not happening because of bad WOM.

 

[TheVileOne]

Not necessarily. I think a big reason this movie opened as big as it did was because of all the cameos it was promising and all the Multiverse intrigue. That played heavily into the marketing campaign for this film.

Maybe it would've had good word of mouth, but may not have made as big of money overall as this.

Look at Shang-Chi. That movie had very good word of mouth and performed very well in subsequent weekends, but it won't touch the Multiverse of Madness numbers. It got much better reviews as well.

So if this was a more scaled-down story, would it still have done as big of business, or would it have looked closer to the first Doctor Strange's numbers?

 

[InCali]

I think a DS3 with a traditional Strange villain would do huge numbers and have a better all round reception. It could open big but have better legs, especially if it’s anywhere near the next MCU event film and Strange plays an important part in it (like with IW).

I think that's where we're heading in DS3 and I don't think it will take nearly as long as the last one because there won't be a IW or EG or COVID (hopefully) between 2 and 3.

It was more front loaded than I thought it would be, but to say it had "bad" WOM is severely overstating it. Over 85% of the audience said they liked it according to RT. Was it as popular as NWH or IW or EG? Clearly not, but let's have some perspective here.

The thing that makes me laugh is that people say "Marvel does the same thing over and over again" and when they do something a little different, people say "Oh, people didn't like that". The bottom line is that no one movie is going to be liked by everyone, but a 3/4 critic rating and an over 6/7 audience score isn't bad. I'm sure some people liked Morbius better than MoM and that's fine. It just isn't the general opinion and Morbius, even considering production costs, didn't get the payback that MoM did. We're all entitled to our opinions, but the facts are the facts.

1B is not happening for a multitude of reasons, but the prime one is that it wasn't distributed to some very large markets. There are various factors in play, but "bad" WOM isn't one of them. Lukewarm, I could buy.

 

[Iceman]

Deadline going with $30m for the weekend.

Box Office: ‘Downton Abbey: A New Era’ Pulls In Older Adults With $18M+ – Deadline

1.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 4,534 theaters, Fri $8.5M (-50%), 3-day $30M (-51%)/Total $340.5M/Wk

 

[TheVileOne]

Seems like $400 million is still possible with Memorial Day coming up. #JustSaying.

 

[Spider-Fan]

51% drop this weekend is pretty solid.

As for would a.more traditional sequel had made more money and had better WOM, I think the answer is maybe to WOM but no to making more money. I think it would have had a much smaller opening.

 

[Pennywise]

 

[Batgirl0202]

It's thankfully stabilized a bit in its third weekend.

Removing China and Russia from the equation, it's tracking to finish in the same neighborhood as CW, which had multiple Avengers and Spidey. Plus, CW was released during normal movie-going times with no pandemic in sight!

Not too shabby

 

[AvengerPA]

It went past Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor: Ragnarok, and GOTG domestically. It should beat Thor: Ragnarok and GOTG 2 globally soon. It has beaten The Batman globally and is the top movie for the year worldwide.

 

[Prison Mike]

Will it pass $400M domestic?

 

[InCali]

Will it pass $400M domestic?

Unlikely IMO, but it could get fairly close.

 

[TheVileOne]

Unlikely IMO, but it could get fairly close.

It's not unlikely at all. Next weekend is a holiday weekend. Top Gun is going to dominate the field more than likely, but that will still give Doctor Strange a little juice.

This weekend's drop was less than 50%. It's at $342 million now.

51% drop this weekend is pretty solid.

As for would a.more traditional sequel had made more money and had better WOM, I think the answer is maybe to WOM but no to making more money. I think it would have had a much smaller opening.

Less than 49% actually.

Will it pass $400M domestic?

Yes, I say it will.

Why is this unlikely? Next weekend is a holiday weekend. Doctor Strange is going to continue making money on the weekdays. A week from today, the movie will more than likely be over $360 million, and then Monday is a holiday. Most people are going to see Top Gun. Others are still going to see Doctor Strange. It's probably going to be closer to $370-ish million after Memorial Day.

Do you all really think it can't muster say another $30 or so million by that point? We're not talking Everything Everywhere All At Once or The Northman, this is a Disney Marvel Studios release.

 

[Iceman]

Lovely. This would be a billion dollar film if it were open in all markets but going to be a good number regardless.

 

[InCali]

I'd like to see it hit 400M DOM, but don't. Here's why......

Assume another 7 week run after this weekend with only a 45% drop each weekend. That projects out to about 377M or another 35M after this weekend. I think those are VERY generous assumptions, but let's say this is the case. In order to hit 400M, it would have to bring in another 23M on the 4 weekdays for the next 7 weeks and I don't think that's happening. Here's why.......

Last week, those 4 days accounted for about 60% of the weekend take. The week before, it accounted for about 70% of the weekend take and I think we can expect that ratio to continue to decrease somewhat. In order to get that 23M in the closing weeks, the weekday takes would have to remain around 66% of the weekend takes.

Now, if we start seeing consistent 60% holds, that's another story, but I think 55% holds, with the weekday to weekend ratio of 60%, for 7 more weeks are ALL MORE than optimistic projections and even with those projections, it will miss 400M. Not by too much, but it'll miss it.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'd like to see it hit 400M DOM, but don't. Here's why......

Assume another 7 week run after this weekend with only a 45% drop each weekend. That projects out to about 377M or another 35M after this weekend. I think those are VERY generous assumptions, but let's say this is the case. In order to hit 400M, it would have to bring in another 23M on the 4 weekdays for the next 7 weeks and I don't think that's happening. Here's why.......

Last week, those 4 days accounted for about 60% of the weekend take. The week before, it accounted for about 70% of the weekend take and I think we can expect that ratio to continue to decrease somewhat. In order to get that 23M in the closing weeks, the weekday takes would have to remain around 66% of the weekend takes.

Now, if we start seeing consistent 60% holds, that's another story, but I think 55% holds, with the weekday to weekend ratio of 60%, for 7 more weeks are ALL MORE than optimistic projections and even with those projections, it will miss 400M. Not by too much, but it'll miss it.

Less than generous, and next weekend is Memorial Day Weekend. This weekend was less than 50 percent.