BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[Iceman]

Damn, that's a heavier decline than I wanted.

 

[Iceman]

Raimi will have a chance to get to #2 all time CBM directors depending on where this movie finishes over Watts.

Any idea what it needs for that?

 

[Drizzle]

That's a big drop but it also makes sense for it to be front-loaded as hell given how they were basically screaming at everyone to see it on opening weekend or else you'll be spoiled. It's also not as big of a crowd pleaser suited for multiple repeat viewings like No Way Home was. I can see Thor: Love and Thunder bringing in around the same ballpark on its opening weekend but having much better legs.

 

[JKKS085]

Yup that’s a sharp drop. Basically the result of the frontloaded nature of any MCU sequel and the fact that MoM is a relatively non family friendly film with an average reception. The writing was on the wall since last Saturday. Now I wouldn’t rule 400M or 1B out just yet (especially the latter). But in any case and arbitrary goalposts aside, this is still an incredibly strong performance in a recovering market.

 

[Shuri]

Damn, I doubt 400m is happening and it might end up missing 1B. It's obvious that most fans didn't like the movie. B+ cinemascore, opening weekend was frontloaded and now 68% 2nd weekend drop. The movie pissed off most Wanda stans and some Dr Strange fans for giving Wanda lots of screentime and writing was not that great. It's hardly surprising the movie is not doing that well. A week to its release, it had the potential to do 200m OW and 1.2b ww

 

[Erzengel]

Any idea what it needs for that?

It would have needed over a $1B so that seems less likely now.

 

[JKKS085]

It opened 12 millions ahead of early tracking dom and greatly exceeded expectations overseas in that timeframe as well. It did well and is still doing well even though it might not reach some arbitrary milestones.
That being said I think the greatest hurdle the movie is facing is the way it pushes the limits of a PG-13 rating. Horror undertones alienated part of the GA (and is according to experts the major reason why it a got B+ Cinemascore) and are keeping some families away. It might also affect repeating viewings on the margins. This isn’t playing like a traditionnel 4Q Marvel movie overall.

Additionally, what the fanbase thinks of a movie (and to be clear nothing out there tells a story of most fans not liking MoM) has very little impact on its bo performance. And also maybe we can stop sorting opinions in like/dont’t like categories when some, if not most, of them fall somewhere in between.

 

[Typhoon22]

It opened 12 millions ahead of early tracking dom and greatly exceeded expectations overseas in that timeframe as well. It did well and is still doing well even though it might not reach some arbitrary milestones.
That being said I think the greatest hurdle the movie is facing is the way it pushes the limits of a PG-13 rating. Horror undertones alienated part of the GA (and is according to experts the major reason why it a got B+ Cinemascore) and are keeping some families away. It might also affect repeating viewings on the margins. This isn’t playing like a traditionnel 4Q Marvel movie overall.

Additionally, what the fanbase thinks of a movie (and to be clear nothing out there tells a story of most fans not liking MoM) has very little impact on its bo performance. And also maybe we can stop sorting opinions in like/dont’t like categories when some, if not most, of them fall somewhere in between.

Source ? I feel like you're speculating here.

The horror elements were some of the better parts of the movie.
The issue is that the movie is NOT good. That's why it has the 2nd lowest cinemascore.
We had a discussion afterwards with the attendees and the consensus was the film being disappointing in the story department. It was surface level/nonexistant. And a lot of opinions that they came to watch a Dr Strange/multiverse movie and ended up watching a Wandavision movie with Strange/Multiverse sprinkled in.
I watched it and loved the little horror elements. The issue is that the movie was just a mess. Too much Wanda, main focus on her storyline, Strange guest starring in his own film etc. etc. The entire main plot of Doctor Strange's 2nd solo movie was basically stopping Wanda and the main character failed at that as well. Wanda started it and ended it herself. So it was pointless in the end. And while Benedict & Elizabeth gave great performances, the writing was so painfully mediocre and jarring that it felt like watching 2 cuts of different movies mixed together.

 

[JKKS085]

Source ? I feel like you're speculating here.

It has been discussed in the trades since the movie was released, several insiders pointed that out early on. I’m not gonna track down every bit of chatter on the subject but it’s out there. Again I’m not saying it’s the only problem people have with the movie but it seems to have played a role.

As for the rest, I’m critical of the movie as well but I usually refrain from projecting my own opinion when discussing/analyzing box office results. In this case I don’t think we’re in a situation were reception (which seems to have been decent across the board) matters as much as other factors that may be more worthy of discussion and debate in a bo thread than any individual opinion on the movie. Just my 2c.

 

[HammerDown]

2nd weekend……DS:MOM || CACW
Friday………………..…. 16.7M || 19.6M
Saturday……………… 25.8M || 31.9M
Sunday………………….. ????? || 21M

Total……………………… ????? || 72.6M

It’s looking like under 60M.

 

[First Avenger]

...

Source ? I feel like you're speculating here.

The horror elements were some of the better parts of the movie.
The issue is that the movie is NOT good. That's why it has the 2nd lowest cinemascore.
We had a discussion afterwards with the attendees and the consensus was the film being disappointing in the story department. It was surface level/nonexistant. And a lot of opinions that they came to watch a Dr Strange/multiverse movie and ended up watching a Wandavision movie with Strange/Multiverse sprinkled in.
I watched it and loved the little horror elements. The issue is that the movie was just a mess. Too much Wanda, main focus on her storyline, Strange guest starring in his own film etc. etc. The entire main plot of Doctor Strange's 2nd solo movie was basically stopping Wanda and the main character failed at that as well. Wanda started it and ended it herself. So it was pointless in the end. And while Benedict & Elizabeth gave great performances, the writing was so painfully mediocre and jarring that it felt like watching 2 cuts of different movies mixed together.

...The whole point of the movie is Strange realizing he doesn't have to hold the knife every time, he learns that watching what the Multiversal Stranges do and are, thus empowering America and letting Wanda end her Madness. It's all clearly shown in the movie. I can understand not liking such a choice, but I don't think it makes the movie automatically bad. I thought it was a bold narrative choice for a character like Strange.

 

[psylockolussus]

Well its basically a Dr. Strange and the Scarlet Witch movie, so its not surprising that its hot holding as well as an Avengers and Spider-Man movie.

I'm just waiting for Marvel Studios to greenlit Doctor Strange Vol. 3.

 

[Marvolo]

The dark tone and Raimi-isms probably hurt it more than the typical MCU film. Hope this won't discourage Marvel from making more dark films with horror elements.

 

[JKKS085]

2nd weekend……DS:MOM || CACW
Friday………………..…. 16.7M || 19.6M
Saturday……………… 25.8M || 31.9M
Sunday………………….. ????? || 21M

Total……………………… ????? || 72.6M

It’s looking like under 60M.

Could be 60/61 based on this estimate though but it will probably go lower since it keeps coming under projections. That’s not great any way you frame it.
Hopefully os comes out better.

 

[Gothamsknight]

It's a shame to see such a drop. This is one of the best MCU films in recent memory for me, and I loved having Raimi back doing his thing. I also still hope they bring him back for more things.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Also hoping international numbers are strong

 

[JKKS085]

So 68% drop across the board. 1B is off at this point but 900M + is still in the cards.
Good news is by sitting at 688M it passed the first entry in the franchise in just 10 days and looks like it’s going to outgross The Batman for #1 at the 2022 box office sometime next week.

 

[InCali]

It opened 12 millions ahead of early tracking dom and greatly exceeded expectations overseas in that timeframe as well. It did well and is still doing well even though it might not reach some arbitrary milestones.
That being said I think the greatest hurdle the movie is facing is the way it pushes the limits of a PG-13 rating. Horror undertones alienated part of the GA (and is according to experts the major reason why it a got B+ Cinemascore) and are keeping some families away. It might also affect repeating viewings on the margins. This isn’t playing like a traditionnel 4Q Marvel movie overall.

Additionally, what the fanbase thinks of a movie (and to be clear nothing out there tells a story of most fans not liking MoM) has very little impact on its bo performance. And also maybe we can stop sorting opinions in like/dont’t like categories when some, if not most, of them fall somewhere in between.

That's a good point. A lot of people missed the OW by 20-almost 30M. My guess was the Thor movie would come in under it OW, but would have better legs and ultimately have better overall box office numbers. I still think that, but Thor "could" best its OW and, if that happens, look out....

 

[TheVileOne]

It opened 12 millions ahead of early tracking dom and greatly exceeded expectations overseas in that timeframe as well. It did well and is still doing well even though it might not reach some arbitrary milestones.
That being said I think the greatest hurdle the movie is facing is the way it pushes the limits of a PG-13 rating. Horror undertones alienated part of the GA (and is according to experts the major reason why it a got B+ Cinemascore) and are keeping some families away. It might also affect repeating viewings on the margins. This isn’t playing like a traditionnel 4Q Marvel movie overall.

Additionally, what the fanbase thinks of a movie (and to be clear nothing out there tells a story of most fans not liking MoM) has very little impact on its bo performance. And also maybe we can stop sorting opinions in like/dont’t like categories when some, if not most, of them fall somewhere in between.

Those aren't the only reasons.

 

[HammerDown]

Age of Ultron/459M is a pipe dream, Civil War/408M looks like a mirage at this point, might as well start comparing it to GOTG2 domestically and that scored 389M.

 

[InCali]

So 68% drop across the board. 1B is off at this point but 900M + is still in the cards.
Good news is by sitting at 688M it passed the first entry in the franchise in just 10 days and looks like it’s going to outgross The Batman for #1 at the 2022 box office sometime next week.

A lot of the time, success or lack thereof, is based on expectations. DS1 did just fine, but DS2 was a disappointment. LOL. The fact of the matter is that, WRT BO numbers, Marvel has set a higher bar than any other franchise I can think of and are making a S*** ton of money, along with entertaining a like number of fans. Not everyone is going to like everything, but, by and large, the movies are popular with the GA. That's just how it is. The Eternals, which I personally liked, was the lowest ranked MCU movie, but it still was liked by almost 80% of the audience (as reported by RT). I think we fall into thinking that what we, as individuals, think is really important overall. It's not.

 

[InCali]

Age of Ultron/459M is a pipe dream, Civil War/408M looks like a mirage at this point, might as well start comparing it to GOTG2 domestically and that scored 389M.

That seems reasonable.

 

[emc5466]

I don’t expect to see Raimi back in the MCU.

 

[InCali]

I don’t expect to see Raimi back in the MCU.

Why not? I don't much stay up on the scuttlebutt so I don't have too much of an opinion one way or the other.

 

[emc5466]

Why not? I don't much stay up on the scuttlebutt so I don't have too much of an opinion one way or the other.

I think he’ll be blamed for the second week drop and the CinemaScore.