BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[HammerDown]

‘Doctor Strange 2’ Advance Ticket Sales At $42M — CinemaCon – Deadline

Projections for the movie are around $150 million, however, given how these big superhero tentpoles — i.e., Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260M) and The Batman ($134M) — have been besting their pre-weekend estimates, don’t be surprised if this Benedict Cumberbatch movie about the Marvel wizard blows away that number.

The 2022 Summer Movie Box Office Preview

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/May 6/$350 million) (*Domestic)

The Marvel summer kick-off flicks (Thor, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Avengers: Infinity War) do better than the mid-summer offerings (Captain America, Ant-Man, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp), so Sam Raimi’s Doctor Strange sequel has the advantage over Taika Waititi’s Thor: Love & Thunder. While the first Doctor Strange was well-liked and successful ($232 million domestic/$677 million in 2016), it wasn’t among the more beloved entries, and I’m not sure having Benedict Cumberbatch’s Sorcerer Supreme showing up in several MCU movies since then makes his solo sequel more or less anticipated. That said, the film is coming off Spider-Man: No Way Home, with a promise of multiverse-specific cameos (including at least, presumably, Patrick Stewart’s Charles Xavier) and a designation as the first “mythology episode” for Marvel since Avengers: Endgame. In terms of May MCU sequels, the question is whether it plays like (sans around $100 million in China) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($389 million/$869 million) or Captain America: Civil War ($408 million/$1.155 billion).

So around 150M OW and around 350M Domestic… I actually think these are much more realistic numbers, even if somewhat lowballed predictions. I’ve seen a lot of artificially inflated box office predictions for other previous comic book movies.

The Batman can be used as a good comparison, it was the last big comic book movie to come out, based on one of the most popular comic book characters ever and got a good reception. Sure it’s isn’t baked into that Marvel/MCU brand and neither was it a sequel but both movies are also darker in nature with DS banking on those cameos to really prop up the film’s box office totals.

Before The Batman came out, a lot of people where also claiming wild BO numbers, both OW and worldwide, needless to say that those where indeed exaggerated, regardless The Batman still scored great BO numbers just not on the scope people where speculating. I think a similar scenario is in store for DS:MOM.

 

[psylockolussus]

^The Batman imo could have grossed higher if not only for the previous Dceu movies in which Batman was played by Ben Affeck. Batman basically had another recast in less than a decade.

with Spider-Man grossing over 800 million in North america, there's no way only Jurasssic world is the only summer movie that would cross the $400 million mark... like Dr. Strange and Thor are certainly as bankable as the JP franchise at this point. A quiet summer season would also only benefit Marvel Studios even more. And Lightyear not even close 200 million?

 

[mclay18]

I think a $200M domestic opening is in the cards. I keep vacillating whether it'll have a NWH sized opening, but it'll definitely have a giant bump in attendance like IM3 did.

Just depends on critical buzz and audience WOM.

 

[InCali]

I'm pretty sure about 160M is the low end and I think a likely OW is about 180M. It's already had 42M in advance sales. It has a good window and I see a multiplier of at least 2.25 and probably more. In other words, over 400M domestic. Over 1B WW without China.

 

[Iceman]

That $42m was from a fair few days ago so it might have ramped up by now. Great to have a large amount of the OW already in the bag.

 

[InCali]

That $42m was from a fair few days ago so it might have ramped up by now. Great to have a large amount of the OW already in the bag.

The post I read it on was 15 hours old, but, yeah, it could have been an actual from further back.

 

[Iceman]

The post I read it on was 15 hours old, but, yeah, it could have been an actual from further back.

I read it days before, not sure why it’s not being adjusted up.

 

[Iceman]

April 27 morning I found:

‘Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness’ Racks Up $42M In Advance Ticket Sales; Pic’s Opening Sequence Shown – CinemaCon

 

[InCali]

April 27 morning I found:

‘Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness’ Racks Up $42M In Advance Ticket Sales; Pic’s Opening Sequence Shown – CinemaCon

Yeah.....4 more day would definitely pad that. It's probably one of those things where they only announce receipts every few days or so.....kind of like overseas box office numbers in the US.

Way cool.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah.....4 more day would definitely pad that. It's probably one of those things where they only announce receipts every few days or so.....kind of like overseas box office numbers in the US.

Way cool.

Yep, and you’d expect the pace of buying presales to accelerate as you get closer to release so hopefully that number is quite high now. Feels like the OW is going to be big and with all the surprises that the GA likely isn’t aware of, the legs could be well supported by word of mouth on all that feeding through fast after that.

 

[AvengerPA]

‘Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ Eyes $150M+ Opening, Presales Big – Deadline

 

[Iceman]

‘Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ Eyes $150M+ Opening, Presales Big – Deadline

“There is the very good chance that the pic will overindex with $175M-$200M”

 

[HammerDown]

Taking into account the critical reception it would probably be wise to temper expectations.
It's probably still going to score a pretty big OW but word of mouth and legs could get a bit of hit after that. Let's see how it fares internationally as well.

 

[AvengerPA]

Box Office: ‘Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness’ Eyes $300M Opening – Deadline
Deadline now predicting $160-180 million domestically this weekend..










Jatinder

@meJat32

BUMPER opening for #DoctorStrange INT on WED. Ahead of No Way Home in many East Asian mkts. Strong start in European markets like France, Germany & Nordics. INT Wknd to be $250M+. Some of early ODs Korea - $5.8M Japan - $3.25M Hong Kong - $0.6M Vietnam - $0.8M

 

[psylockolussus]

i voted 900 million worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

Box Office: ‘Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness’ Eyes $300M Opening – Deadline
Deadline now predicting $160-180 million domestically this weekend..










Jatinder

@meJat32

BUMPER opening for #DoctorStrange INT on WED. Ahead of No Way Home in many East Asian mkts. Strong start in European markets like France, Germany & Nordics. INT Wknd to be $250M+. Some of early ODs Korea - $5.8M Japan - $3.25M Hong Kong - $0.6M Vietnam - $0.8M

Sounds like a great start and a nice bump from the last estimate.

 

[HammerDown]

So according to the Deadline article and for comparison.

Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness
Pre Sales - 60M
Opening Weekend - 160 to 180M
Worldwide Opening - Around 300M

The Batman
Pre Sales - 42M
Opening weekend - 134M
Worldwide Opening - 251M

I think the lukewarm critical reception is going to put a damper on the BO results for DS:MOM and I could see the final OW number being closer to that lower estimate. It seems also that DS:MOM will be front loaded and since critical reception won’t help that much moving forward, is up to word of mouth to pull most of the heavy lifting and we’ll see if the film connects with the general audience.

 

[psylockolussus]

Doctor Strange has the entire month for itself.

Top Gun Maverick would be lucky to open higher than 50 million in North America.

 

[HammerDown]

Doctor Strange has the entire month for itself.

Top Gun Maverick would be lucky to open higher than 50 million in North America.

The second Downtown Abbey film comes out May 20th. The first one scored 200M worldwide and that stuff has a pretty big following.

Apparently Top Gun is actually predicted to open at 100M. The critical reception seems to be pretty good on that one.

 

[Iceman]

So according to the Deadline article and for comparison.

I think the lukewarm critical reception is going to put a damper on the BO results for DS:MOM and I could see the final OW number being closer to that lower estimate. It seems also that DS:MOM will be front loaded and since critical reception won’t help that much moving forward, is up to word of mouth to pull most of the heavy lifting and we’ll see if the film connects with the general audience.

Cool. Big numbers even at the very bottom of the ranges.

 

[MadVillainy]

The second Downtown Abbey film comes out May 20th. The first one scored 200M worldwide and that stuff has a pretty big following.

Apparently Top Gun is actually predicted to open at 100M. The critical reception seems to be pretty good on that one.

OT: Jesus really?
I mean I heard positive reception but I didn't know it was tracking that high. Good for it

 

[def28]

So according to the Deadline article and for comparison.

I think the lukewarm critical reception is going to put a damper on the BO results for DS:MOM and I could see the final OW number being closer to that lower estimate. It seems also that DS:MOM will be front loaded and since critical reception won’t help that much moving forward, is up to word of mouth to pull most of the heavy lifting and we’ll see if the film connects with the general audience.

Does a 78-80% RT hurt a Marvel film opening weekend or count as lukewarm now? The interest, curiosity and discussion is still extremely high from what I've seen. Even so, theres a reason Raimi's Spider-Man 3 made a ton of money despite the reception and this isn't near that level.

No Way Home, Infinity War, End Game and Wandavision are the credibility with these two characters and not the RT. 3 of those are the biggest and most crowd pleasing films of all time. If this was even below 40% RT, it's gonna be hyped. Though I could be wrong, I think It would in the least take two below average (below 60% RT) Strange films to actually make a dent in box office. A 78-80% ain't turning anyone away.

 

[InCali]

Does a 78-80% RT hurt a Marvel film opening weekend or count as lukewarm now? The interest, curiosity and discussion is still extremely high from what I've seen. Even so, theres a reason Raimi's Spider-Man 3 made a ton of money despite the reception and this isn't near that level.

No Way Home, Infinity War, End Game and Wandavision are the credibility with these two characters and not the RT. 3 of those are the biggest and most crowd pleasing films of all time. If this was even below 40% RT, it's gonna be hyped. Though I could be wrong, I think It would in the least take two below average (below 60% RT) Strange films to actually make a dent in box office. An 80% ain't turning anyone away.

I don't think so. We'll start getting BO info soon enough and the Thursday evening figures will give us some indication of where this is headed. If I had to guess, I would say pretty well north of 160M. Ultimately, the BO numbers don't really matter unless is pulls a Fant4stic or a Morbius and that's clearly not in the cards.

The main criticism seems to be that they tried to do too much. That sounds very much like the reception The Eternals got, but this is getting a much better reviews. I rather liked Eternals, but can understand those who didn't.

 

[def28]

I don't think so. We'll start getting BO info soon enough and the Thursday evening figures will give us some indication of where this is headed. If I had to guess, I would say pretty well north of 160M. Ultimately, the BO numbers don't really matter unless is pulls a Fant4stic or a Morbius and that's clearly not in the cards.

The main criticism seems to be that they tried to do too much. That sounds very much like the reception The Eternals got, but this is getting a much better reviews. I rather liked Eternals, but can understand those who didn't.

Yeah, I see north of 160m too.

I think by weeks end, the main criticism will be that many were expecting an Avenger/No Way Home level event with cameos beyond ones imagination. Rumors were out of control on this.
Expectations too high.

 

[InCali]

Yeah, I see north of 160m too.

I think by weeks end, the main criticism will be that many were expecting an Avenger/No Way Home level event with cameos beyond ones imagination. Rumors were out of control on this.
Expectations too high.

I always saw this movie (along with, to a lesser extent, NWH) as setting the table for phase 4.