BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[Typhoon22]

Just my humble opinion but that list looks wrong to me. I would never put The Batman, even before it came out, above Jurassic World or even Lightyear. Those 2 are going to make 1B+ easy. Especially Jurassic World. Heck, I think JW is going to outgross Dr Strange 2 fairly easily.

I also think Dr Strange is not going to make as much as many people are thinking. At most I can see it making 1B but definately not more than 1.2B it wouldn't even surprise me if it makes slightly less than 1B. For some reason the hype for it is not as much as people are making it out to be, I say this as a fan.

If I had to make the top 5 grossing films for 2022:
1- Avatar 2
2- Jurassic World: Dominion
3- Black Panther WF
4- Dr Strange 2
5- Thor L&T

 

[HammerDown]

I think a lot of people are over predicting DS:MOM. Undoubtedly it’s going to be a box office hit but not on the level some people are claiming it to be and nowhere near SM:NWH numbers.

I also think that around 1B is where it’s going to land.

 

[AvengerPA]

I predict $350 million domestic, $650 global, and $1 billion worldwide.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

Started outpacing Batman's 24 hours sales in just 2-3 hours at various locations

For it's OW I think something in the range of Civil War (179m) and Age of Ultron (191m) is reasonable

 

[Silver Surfer]

According to BOT, DS2's first 24 hours sale are:

2x that of The Batman

0.7x that of Spider-Man No Way home

180m-ish OW early prediction.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm posting here because I'm very curious how this movie is going to do. It's in the coveted "May" slot for MCU movies that have done extremely well.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

If everything goes right, I can see this doing 200m+

 

[Typhoon22]

The one major positive thing going on for this one is that this will be the 1st blockbuster movie without lockdowns/restrictions after a very heavy 2 year period of lockdown/restrictions. At least in the West. Add the May date, nice weather coming up/people going places without restrictions this could be a major X factor imo.

And if the movie is great as well that will just strengthen its WOM/legs.
If not, it could really disappoint at the BO as well. Just my opinion.

 

[Zyraquis]

Asia Pacific is also climbing out of strict COVID rules too, other than China, but it won’t be released there anyway. Then also have to cancel Russia (which should be cancelled in all senses but I digress). I don’t think billion is shoo-in unless it has good reviews and word of mouth on par with Batman (tall order).

 

[Silver Surfer]

BoxOfficePro Forecast:

Opening Weekend: $165,000,000 – $205,000,000

Domestic Total: $400,000,000 – $535,000,000

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios' Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Tracking to Cast a Stellar Summer Start - Boxoffice

 

[InCali]

I think a lot of people are over predicting DS:MOM. Undoubtedly it’s going to be a box office hit but not on the level some people are claiming it to be and nowhere near SM:NWH numbers.

I also think that around 1B is where it’s going to land.

There's always someone who is going to predict a higher than actual box office, but those who think it's going to do SM numbers are probably pretty few and far between. I do, however, think it is going to benefit greatly from the popularity of SM:NWH and it helped to make Strange an even more interesting, household name. He's clearly a pivotal character in this phase and it's looking to me like Thor will be also. Coincidentally, they are 2 of my favorite characters from the comics. At this point, considering early ticket sales, I see this movie easily topping $1B without China and Russia. I also think it's clear that Marvel is going to play much more into multi hero movies that have more of a continuity than they did early on. Back then, the movies were pretty much stand alone. At this point, you've pretty much got to see the movies to get what's going on. This isn't a bad strategy because of Marvel's popularity.

For those of us who have been annoyed by the lack of a trailer for the new Thor movie, I am becoming more convinced by the day that this has a bigger tie in to DS than previously thought.

 

[Iceman]

According to BOT, DS2's first 24 hours sale are:

2x that of The Batman

0.7x that of Spider-Man No Way home

180m-ish OW early prediction.

Nice. If the numbers continue to come in like that it could be in for a big domestic total even with a not-great multiplier.

 

[Iceman]

BoxOfficePro Forecast:

Opening Weekend: $165,000,000 – $205,000,000

Domestic Total: $400,000,000 – $535,000,000

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios' Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Tracking to Cast a Stellar Summer Start - Boxoffice

Even the lowest numbers there are great for OW and dom total.

 

[HammerDown]

Doctor Strange BO results:

OW - 85M
Domestic - 232M
International - 445M
Worldwide - 677M

Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness prediction:

OW - 145M
Domestic - 450M
International - 550M
Worldwide - 1B

 

[InCali]

Nice. If the numbers continue to come in like that it could be in for a big domestic total even with a not-great multiplier.

I don't see it having a poor multiplier. For the release date, it has a pretty nice corridor. Maybe Firestarter and Top Gun will provide some dirty air for its sails/sales, but it's not until JW hits the screens 5 weeks later that a large, long term bite will be taken out of its box office. It won't have the clean air of SM, but, as summer corridors go, it looks to be in pretty good shape. The key is going to be how well it's received by the public. People, I think, may very well be going back to rewatching movies.

 

[Iceman]

I don't see it having a poor multiplier. For the release date, it has a pretty nice corridor. Maybe Firestarter and Top Gun will provide some dirty air for its sails/sales, but it's not until JW hits the screens 5 weeks later that a large, long term bite will be taken out of its box office. It won't have the clean air of SM, but, as summer corridors go, it looks to be in pretty good shape. The key is going to be how well it's received by the public. People, I think, may very well be going back to rewatching movies.

Funny you say that as this could well be the first film I rewatch - mainly due to pandemic restrictions and aftereffects. I have a feeling this will be quite well received. If the $180m OW predictions turn out to be realistic then a 2.8 multiplier would take it above $500m dom!

 

[InCali]

Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness prediction:

OW - 145M
Domestic - 450M
International - 550M
Worldwide - 1B

Were the first set of predictions yours from awhile back? As things stand now, I think the latter predictions you posted are obviously way more in line with what we'll see, but still pretty much the floor. As I said, SM gave this movie a big boost. I didn't see it making the money I believe it will until after I realized how big of a role Strange would play in NWH.

EDIT: I could see 450 being the DOM run. I think Int'l will be higher.

 

[Iceman]

I think there will be a lot of people telling their friends to go watch this and specific cameos will have an effect too as this can still surprise parts of the GA who don’t keep up to date between films.

 

[HammerDown]

Were the first set of predictions yours from awhile back? As things stand now, I think the latter predictions you posted are obviously way more in line with what we'll see, but still pretty much the floor. As I said, SM gave this movie a big boost. I didn't see it making the money I believe it will until after I realized how big of a role Strange would play in NWH.

EDIT: I could see 450 being the DOM run. I think Int'l will be higher.

Predictions are always in flux specially because of the pandemic, China’s absence… but yeh I think this is the first time I give the full BO predictions for DS:MOM.

Worth mentioning that the original DS made 131M in just China and Russia alone. So now it will have to score that somewhere else which shouldn’t be unattainable because of the sequel bump this is going to get.

I look at this film BO results and compare it to the original DS and The Batman since it’s the latest comic book film to make a big impact in the theaters. I still think SM:NWH is a different cattle of fish… A 330M bump would be great for a Marvel sequel but I could very well be conservative ok my estimates and it eventually hitting 1.1/1.2 wouldn’t surprise me that much but that would definitely be the very high end of my estimates.

 

[InCali]

Predictions are always in flux specially because of the pandemic, China’s absence… but yeh I think this is the first time I give the full BO results for DS:MOM.

Worth mentioning that the original DS made 131M in just China and Russia alone. So now it will have to score that somewhere else which shouldn’t be attainable because of the sequel bump this is going to get.

I look at this film BO results and compare it to the original DS and The Batman since it’s the latest comic book film to make a big impact in the theaters. I still think SM:NWH is a different cattle of fish… A 330M bump would be great for a Marvel sequel but I could very well be conservative ok my estimates and it eventually hitting 1.1/1.2 wouldn’t surprise me that much.

1.1 or 1.2 is basically where I see it falling. May be a little bit more. That’s saying quite a lot without Russia or China.

 

[Iceman]

Oh didn’t realise this film also has no China. That makes it harder but it can still do big numbers.

 

[Batgirl0202]

The one major positive thing going on for this one is that this will be the 1st blockbuster movie without lockdowns/restrictions after a very heavy 2 year period of lockdown/restrictions. At least in the West. Add the May date, nice weather coming up/people going places without restrictions this could be a major X factor imo.

And if the movie is great as well that will just strengthen its WOM/legs.
If not, it could really disappoint at the BO as well. Just my opinion.

Agree 100%. Unless something really drastic happens I don't see any scenario where this doesn't do at least $1 billion worldwide, even without a China release.

People are hungry for normalcy. Add in the coveted summer kick-off box office date and its status as a direct follow up to NWH, and this thing becomes a monster.

I'm not arguing that Jurassic Park and Lightyear won't also be huge. But if MoM can't capitalize on everything it has going for it, all movies are in trouble...

 

[Typhoon22]

Is China 100% confirmed off the table?
Anyone got a source on that one.

 

[InCali]

Is China 100% confirmed off the table?
Anyone got a source on that one.

I think the reason people are assuming that it won't get a release date in China is because none of the latest Marvel movies have been released there. I don't know of many official statements, they just never announce a movie release. If SM:NWH, Eternals (probably because of who the director is), Shang Chi, BW, etc. didn't ever get released, I doubt DS2 will either.

When I look at box office success, I take those sorts of things into consideration so I wouldn't make an apples to apples comparison of one movie that got a release in China and one that doesn't. The studios make a lot less money (percentage wise) from their releases in China.

 

[Batgirl0202]

I think the reason people are assuming that it won't get a release date in China is because none of the latest Marvel movies have been released there. I don't know of many official statements, they just never announce a movie release. If SM:NWH, Eternals (probably because of who the director is), Shang Chi, BW, etc. didn't ever get released, I doubt DS2 will either.

When I look at box office success, I take those sorts of things into consideration so I wouldn't make an apples to apples comparison of one movie that got a release in China and one that doesn't. The studios make a lot less money (percentage wise) from their releases in China.

The Wall Street Journal did a great breakdown of this. If a movie earns $100 million at the domestic box office, the studio sees about $50 million of that as gross receipts, while theaters keep the rest. But it also earns the studio, on average, an additional $125 million from ancillary sources (TV, VOD, Blu-ray sales).

By contrast, earning $100 million at the Chinese box office only sends about $25 million of that gross to the studio, plus a paltry $2 million in ancillary marketplaces (on average). So while China is inarguably important to the bottom line, the country is nowhere near as crucial to a film's success as the domestic and European marketplaces.