BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[InCali]

Less than generous, and next weekend is Memorial Day Weekend. This weekend was less than 50 percent.

We'll see, but much more than generous in my estimation. I was talking about even smaller drops (of 45%) throughout the entire run. I personally hope you're right, but we'll see. There are some big and/or well reviewed movies coming up soon.

 

[TheVileOne]

We'll see, but much more than generous in my estimation. I was talking about even smaller drops (of 45%) throughout the entire run. I personally hope you're right, but we'll see. There are some big and/or well reviewed movies coming up soon.

I'm thinking about next weekend's drop during a holiday weekend, the weekdays, and subsequent weekends. As long as they don't do something as put it on Disney+ early, they will be fine for $400 million.

Lost City opened lower than this and it's still making money and is going over $100 million. And that's without a holiday weekend during its run.

 

[InCali]

I'm thinking about next weekend's drop during a holiday weekend, the weekdays, and subsequent weekends. As long as they don't do something as put it on Disney+ early, they will be fine for $400 million.

Lost City opened lower than this and it's still making money and is going over $100 million. And that's without a holiday weekend during its run.

The numbers and trends are what I'm basing this on. I used to do quantitative analysis like this (not box office) for a living, but this wouldn't be the first time I've been off. I'm projecting in the high 380s to low 390s, but could easily be a little bit low.

 

[TheVileOne]

The numbers and trends are what I'm basing this on. I used to do quantitative analysis like this (not box office) for a living, but this wouldn't be the first time I've been off. I'm projecting in the high 380s to low 390s, but could easily be a little bit low.

If next weekend wasn't a holiday weekend, you might be closer, but you are undershooting the holiday weekend factor.

Also, its third-weekend drop was not that steep. People way over-exaggerated the drop from weekend 1 to weekend 2 which was because the first weekend was so abnormally high.

 

[InCali]

If next weekend wasn't a holiday weekend, you might be closer, but you are undershooting the holiday weekend factor.

Also, its third-weekend drop was not that steep. People way over-exaggerated the drop from weekend 1 to weekend 2 which was because the first weekend was so abnormally high.

I had this drop being at right about 50% (EDIT: So I was pretty much dead bang on). The holiday weekend will certainly help, but it’s just a few million. In the overall scheme, it’ll help, but it’s not gonna give it a $10 million kick or anything like that. We’ll see next weekend. That’s the bottom line

 

[TheVileOne]

I had this drop being at right about 50% (EDIT: So I was pretty much dead bang on). The holiday weekend will certainly help, but it’s just a few million. In the overall scheme, it’ll help, but it’s not gonna give it a $10 million kick or anything like that. We’ll see next weekend. That’s the bottom line

I expect it will.

 

[InCali]

I expect it will.

Not quite sure what you mean, but I think a really good hold for Fri-Sun would be about 18M (or a 60% hold....that would be very good). In a "regular" weekend, I would expect about 15M and maybe a little less because of the TG opening. Maybe a couple more M on Monday than what would you would normally get? If you think that Fri-Mon is going to be anywhere near 25M, I just don't see it.

That being said, I was WAY off on NWH OW so what I think certainly isn't a gimme.

 

[TheVileOne]

Not quite sure what you mean, but I think a really good hold for Fri-Sun would be about 18M (or a 60% hold....that would be very good). In a "regular" weekend, I would expect about 15M and maybe a little less because of the TG opening. Maybe a couple more M on Monday than what would you would normally get? If you think that Fri-Mon is going to be anywhere near 25M, I just don't see it.

That being said, I was WAY off on NWH OW so what I think certainly isn't a gimme.

$18 million puts it well over $360 million. That's without weekday grosses added on. So you truly think after crossing over $360 million in four weekends, there'd be no gas left for another $35 million or so?

 

[InCali]

$18 million puts it well over $360 million. That's without weekday grosses added on. So you truly think after crossing over $360 million in four weekends, there'd be no gas left for another $35 million or so?

Nope. Here are my calc's for a 60% hold and 55% thereafter with 7 MORE weeks of release. It would still need that 2/3 ratio of M-Thur for the weekend numbers. The numbers don't work. They have already dropped to 60% in the second week. I just think the below projections are very optimistic, but we'll see.

DS, by the way, is one of my 2 favorite Marvel characters (along with Thor) and I definitely wish the character well and want to see him in as many MCU movies as possible. Love Cumberbatch also and think he's one of, and maybe THE best actor in MCU.

In Millons
342.00
18.00 (60% hold with 55% thereafter)
8.25
4.54
2.50
1.37
0.75
377.41 (Total Weekend)

And that's saying there actually IS a 60% hold with TG coming out. That's not a given.

 

[TheVileOne]

Nope. Here are my calc's for a 60% hold and 55% thereafter with 7 MORE weeks of release. It would still need that 2/3 ratio of M-Thur for the weekend numbers. The numbers don't work. They have already dropped to 60% in the second week. I just think the below projections are very optimistic, but we'll see.

DS, by the way, is one of my 2 favorite Marvel characters (along with Thor) and I definitely wish the character well and want to see him in as many MCU movies as possible. Love Cumberbatch also and think he's one of, and maybe THE best actor in MCU.

In Millons
342.00
18.00 (60% hold with 55% thereafter)
8.25
4.54
2.50
1.37
0.75
377.41 (Total Weekend)

And that's saying there actually IS a 60% hold with TG coming out. That's not a given.

That's utterly absurd with Memorial Day Weekend coming up. And once again, discounts the weekday grosses.

 

[InCali]

That's utterly absurd with Memorial Day Weekend coming up. And once again, discounts the weekday grosses.

Dude....if you have better numbers that you think are more realistic, post them. Do you really think that a 60% hold is underestimating the holiday weekend? Out of old habits, I've posted what I think are optimistic numbers, my underlying assumptions, and an overall picture based on those.

I've said I could be wrong, but I've at least have given a clear breakdown of why I think what I do. If you think differently, that's fine, but at least extrapolate out with your own analysis before you start throwing out words like "absurd".

EDIT: The weekday grosses are already at 60% and are likely to go down. As I've pointed out, they would need to stay at the 66% they were in the first week only.

 

[TheVileOne]

Dude....if you have better numbers that you think are more realistic, post them. Do you really think that a 60% hold is underestimating the holiday weekend? Out of old habits, I've posted what I think are optimistic numbers, my underlying assumptions, and an overall picture based on those.

Yes.

I've said I could be wrong, but I've at least have given a clear breakdown of why I think what I do. If you think differently, that's fine, but at least extrapolate out with your own analysis before you start throwing out words like "absurd".

EDIT: The weekday grosses are already at 60% and are likely to go down. As I've pointed out, they would need to stay at the 66% they were in the first week only.

This breakdown is strictly weekend numbers and doesn't add the ticket sales it will continue to draw over the weekdays.

By tomorrow the film will be over $342 million domestic. The question is, how much will it be before Memorial Day weekend? It's going to much closer to $350 million before May 24.

Even if they go down, they still will add to the overall total and will put it much closer to $400 million. Down 60% or not.

The Netflix bubble has already broken. Studios altering their business plans so drastically during the global pandemic was a grievous error.

 

[InCali]

Yes.



This breakdown is strictly weekend numbers and doesn't add the ticket sales it will continue to draw over the weekdays.

By tomorrow the film will be over $342 million domestic. The question is, how much will it be before Memorial Day weekend? It's going to much closer to $350 million before May 24.

Oh lord.....it DOES add weekday numbers....remember the 60-66% added in? The 23M it would need to bring it from about 377M to 400M would be about 2/3 of the approximately 35M spanning the 18M to .75M weekends listed (again) below after the current projected weekend total of 342. That is assuming a 55% hold for 7 weeks.....both of those seem somewhat generous. Again, if you want to post your own projections, that's great, but please don't tell me I'm not accounting for weekday BO, because I clearly am. If you're saying we are going to see 25M or so over the holiday weekend, great. Give me a day by day breakdown of Friday through Monday and we'll see how it goes.

See below.....

In Millons
342.00 (projected after this weekend)
18.00 (60% hold with 55% thereafter)
8.25
4.54
2.50
1.37
0.75
377.41 (Total Weekend)

 

[The Caped Knight]

 

[InCali]

That's a great total WW and DOM. I don't know the details of how the Int'l market plays out over time, but the fact that it hit will 900M (minimally) without some major markets is a great run. It has been getting about 44 to 56% DOM to Int'l and these numbers seem to track that (with maybe an edge to a higher percentage on the Int'l market). It easily hits 1B with the same releases other movies have had.

 

[TheVileOne]

Oh lord.....it DOES add weekday numbers....remember the 60-66% added in? The 23M it would need to bring it from about 377M to 400M would be about 2/3 of the approximately 35M spanning the 18M to .75M weekends listed (again) below after the current projected weekend total of 342. That is assuming a 55% hold for 7 weeks.....both of those seem somewhat generous. Again, if you want to post your own projections, that's great, but please don't tell me I'm not accounting for weekday BO, because I clearly am. If you're saying we are going to see 25M or so over the holiday weekend, great. Give me a day by day breakdown of Friday through Monday and we'll see how it goes.

See below.....

In Millons
342.00 (projected after this weekend)
18.00 (60% hold with 55% thereafter)
8.25
4.54
2.50
1.37
0.75
377.41 (Total Weekend)

Unless I'm reading your figures wrong, you're basically saying the movie is only going to make another $35 million TOTAL domestically right after it just made $31 million in its third weekend and the next weekend is a holiday weekend?

I'm sorry, but I just can't buy into that.

 

[InCali]

Unless I'm reading your figures wrong, you're basically saying the movie is only going to make another $35 million TOTAL domestically right after it just made $31 million in its third weekend and the next weekend is a holiday weekend?

I'm sorry, but I just can't buy into that.

On weekends ONLY. Which would put it at 377M. I don’t think it will make 2/3 of the 35M on the weekdays; which would put it at 400M for its run. Weekend plus weekdays.

 

[JKKS085]

Let’s also keep in mind that it’s apparently out on Disney+ on June 22nd so it could very well be more like 4 weekends before it’s roughly all said and done.

For reference The Batman added around 4M dom after its release on HBO Max and that had much better legs than MoM (notwithstanding the fact that Disney+ is also a bigger streaming service than HBO Max in terms of subscribers).

 

[InCali]

Let’s also keep in mind that it’s apparently out on Disney+ on June 22nd so it could very well be more like 4 weekends before it’s roughly all said and done.

For reference The Batman added around 4M dom after its release on HBO Max and that had much better legs than MoM (notwithstanding the fact that Disney+ is also a bigger streaming service than HBO Max in terms of subscribers).

Yeah. I definitely get that and is why I said I thought I was being generous with the 45% drop AND 7 week run. After June 22, I projected that the weekend totals would be down in the 1.xxM range which is basically peanuts and it's probably better business to satisfy your D+ customers than it is to try and scrape a few more bucks out of the theatrical run. Plus, you've got Thor coming up on the heels of the end of its run and there's a lot of money to be made there. Disney/Marvel is going to be killing it this summer and also owns Avatar now. SM Fing H.

AND, after about a month and a half after the Avatar re-release (which I think will do okay as it's been a long time), BP gets released. While I don't expect it to match the original's BO numbers, I think it's going to do really great numbers. It has a pretty clear window UNTIL, you guessed it, the NEW Avatar movie gets released with a nice, open window. Man, you've gotta feel sorry for Disney's movie division. They must be really hurting right now.

I'll bet the mouse is just tearing its hair out worrying about the debut of Kraven the Hunter........

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah. I definitely get that and is why I said I thought I was being generous with the 45% drop AND 7 week run. After June 22, I projected that the weekend totals would be down in the 1.xxM range which is basically peanuts and it's probably better business to satisfy your D+ customers than it is to try and scrape a few more bucks out of the theatrical run. Plus, you've got Thor coming up on the heels of the end of its run and there's a lot of money to be made there. Disney/Marvel is going to be killing it this summer and also owns Avatar now. SM Fing H.

AND, after about a month and a half after the Avatar re-release (which I think will do okay as it's been a long time), BP gets released. While I don't expect it to match the original's BO numbers, I think it's going to do really great numbers. It has a pretty clear window UNTIL, you guessed it, the NEW Avatar movie gets released with a nice, open window. Man, you've gotta feel sorry for Disney's movie division. They must be really hurting right now.

I'll bet the mouse is just tearing its hair out worrying about the debut of Kraven the Hunter........

It will have already made $400 million domestic at that point.

 

[InCali]

It will have already made $400 million domestic at that point.

In the words of the immortal Cuba Gooding Jr. "Show me the numbers". I'd like to see your projections. If it starts having consistent 60%+ holds, then we're talking.

At that point, the other 4 weekdays would only need to account for about 40% of the weekend grosses to bring it to 400M (over the next 5 weeks).

 

[TheVileOne]

In the words of the immortal Cuba Gooding Jr. "Show me the numbers". I'd like to see your projections. If it starts having consistent 60%+ holds, then we're talking.

At that point, the other 4 weekdays would only need to account for about 40% of the weekend grosses to bring it to 400M (over the next 5 weeks).

5/30/2022

 

[InCali]

5/30/2022

Maybe I'm dense, but that doesn't look like a projection.

 

[Batgirl0202]

Let’s also keep in mind that it’s apparently out on Disney+ on June 22nd so it could very well be more like 4 weekends before it’s roughly all said and done.

I was actually gonna chime in with this factoid. MoM won't be following the traditional Marvel Summer Kick-Off pattern. None of their other Beginning-of-May releases went to a streaming service this quickly before the pandemic era, to the best of my knowledge. MoM won't get an entire summer of uninterrupted play before hitting the streaming market...

Top box office analysts seem to be using the Civil War parallel when describing MoM's trajectory, and it does make sense. Both Marvel films were released in years when Mother's Day Weekend fell on the first Sunday in May. Let's see how they compare so far:

Civil War:

May 6-8 $179,139,142
May 13-15 $72,637,142 -59.5%
May 20-22 $32,939,739 -54.7%
May 27-30 Memorial Day wknd $20,004,508 -39%
Factor out Memorial Day and the drop would have been -53%

MoM:

May 6-8 $187,420,998
May 13-15 $61,755,804 -67%
May 20-22 $31,600,000 -48.8%

So far MoM has had a larger second weekend drop than CW but a better third weekend drop. Assuming a slightly better -35% Memorial Day weekend drop, MoM makes roughly $21 million this weekend. Assuming it makes a couple million each day this week, we should be at roughly $370 million by this time next week.

Will it have enough juice to hit $400 million? I'm predicting yes, but we'll see

 

[TheVileOne]

I was actually gonna chime in with this factoid. MoM won't be following the traditional Marvel Summer Kick-Off pattern. None of their other Beginning-of-May releases went to a streaming service this quickly before the pandemic era, to the best of my knowledge. MoM won't get an entire summer of uninterrupted play before hitting the streaming market...

Top box office analysts seem to be using the Civil War parallel when describing MoM's trajectory, and it does make sense. Both Marvel films were released in years when Mother's Day Weekend fell on the first Sunday in May. Let's see how they compare so far:

Civil War:

May 6-8 $179,139,142
May 13-15 $72,637,142 -59.5%
May 20-22 $32,939,739 -54.7%
May 27-30 Memorial Day wknd $20,004,508 -39%
Factor out Memorial Day and the drop would have been -53%

MoM:

May 6-8 $187,420,998
May 13-15 $61,755,804 -67%
May 20-22 $31,600,000 -48.8%

So far MoM has had a larger second weekend drop than CW but a better third weekend drop. Assuming a slightly better -35% Memorial Day weekend drop, MoM makes roughly $21 million this weekend. Assuming it makes a couple million each day this week, we should be at roughly $370 million by this time next week.

Will it have enough juice to hit $400 million? I'm predicting yes, but we'll see

If it's at roughly $370 million by next weekend, yes.