BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[InCali]

I was actually gonna chime in with this factoid. MoM won't be following the traditional Marvel Summer Kick-Off pattern. None of their other Beginning-of-May releases went to a streaming service this quickly before the pandemic era, to the best of my knowledge. MoM won't get an entire summer of uninterrupted play before hitting the streaming market...

Top box office analysts seem to be using the Civil War parallel when describing MoM's trajectory, and it does make sense. Both Marvel films were released in years when Mother's Day Weekend fell on the first Sunday in May. Let's see how they compare so far:

Civil War:

May 6-8 $179,139,142
May 13-15 $72,637,142 -59.5%
May 20-22 $32,939,739 -54.7%
May 27-30 Memorial Day wknd $20,004,508 -39%
Factor out Memorial Day and the drop would have been -53%

MoM:

May 6-8 $187,420,998
May 13-15 $61,755,804 -67%
May 20-22 $31,600,000 -48.8%

So far MoM has had a larger second weekend drop than CW but a better third weekend drop. Assuming a slightly better -35% Memorial Day weekend drop, MoM makes roughly $21 million this weekend. Assuming it makes a couple million each day this week, we should be at roughly $370 million by this time next week.

Will it have enough juice to hit $400 million? I'm predicting yes, but we'll see

Civil War was pretty much my comp from the start. CW had a 2.25 multiplier and I think MoM will be "just" below that, but the comparables are pretty clear.
"IF" MoM can bring in 21M this 4 day weekend, I still don't quite see 400M. By the way, thanks for the clear prediction; we could use more of that around here. If the 20M could be reached over the 3 days, it could be an indication that DS has some very good "late" legs and that's possible because there is a solid core group out there that really liked it.....including me.

20M, however, would be a 67% hold over Memorial Day (true) weekend with a very well reviewed military movie, Top Gun, making its debut. It's possible, but I think that's overly optimistic. I figure 18M (60% drop) is even a little optimistic, but we'll see. If the more optimistic scenario plays out and DS comes out of the weekend at around 377M, that's a great number and would give it a great shot at 400M. In order for that to be the case, even with a 21M 4 day weekend, it would still need 15M for this M-Thur and it only did 18M LAST week. I just don't see anything close to that sort of weekday hold. I think more in the neighborhood of 8M or so (assuming a drop just in excess of 50%) seems reasonable. That puts it at about 370M so I see the ballpark you're playing in. CW, at the same point in time, was at just over 377M and ended up at 408M with a 9M smaller OW. That's why I think the legs on MoM will be slightly worse than CW.

CW did 20M over 4 days and that was with 2 very poorly reviewed movies (Alice and Apocalypse) going up against it. Top Gun looks like much, much tougher competition and I suspect it will end up on the higher end of projections.

What I'm trying to do is provide a clear picture of what I foresee and my reasoning. As I've said, I've been wrong more times than I'd like to remember and I don't think of anything I say as gospel.

 

[Prison Mike]

I’m probably done with movie theaters for the rest of the year but I’m glad DS2 was the last one I saw (should have seen it in Dolby rather than IMAX though). Hope it makes the $400M domestic by the time it lands on D+.

 

[InCali]

I’m probably done with movie theaters for the rest of the year but I’m glad DS2 was the last one I saw (should have seen it in Dolby rather than IMAX though). Hope it makes the $400M domestic by the time it lands on D+.

So JW, Thor, BP, etc.....nothing interests you?

 

[Erzengel]

Top Gun looks like much, much tougher competition and I suspect it will end up on the higher end of projections.

I have a feeling Top Gun will be the #1 movie this weekend but I don't think it's going to be this huge breakout opening. While it was the highest grossing movie in 1986, I look at other popular movies that took decades for a sequel and most of them seem to not recapture the original magic. I know boxofficepro estimates Top Gun at 98-125M opening weekend going on to possibly 285-395M which I think is high. Cruise's MI movies range in the 180-220M range. His highest movie is War of the Worlds at 234M. The movie star I feel is dead and while it is all about "franchises now" and this is now technically a franchise, I'd be surprised if it meets those numbers.

 

[Prison Mike]

So JW, Thor, BP, etc.....nothing interests you?

They all interest me. Currently have COVID and don’t want to risk reinfection especially since there’s no mask mandate and seat spacing at my theater anymore. I might change my mind if masks are required again or they block out seats in between people.

 

[InCali]

I have a feeling Top Gun will be the #1 movie this weekend but I don't think it's going to be this huge breakout opening. While it was the highest grossing movie in 1986, I look at other popular movies that took decades for a sequel and most of them seem to not recapture the original magic. I know boxofficepro estimates Top Gun at 98-125M opening weekend going on to possibly 285-395M which I think is high. Cruise's MI movies range in the 180-220M range. His highest movie is War of the Worlds at 234M. The movie star I feel is dead and while it is all about "franchises now" and this is now technically a franchise, I'd be surprised if it meets those numbers.

That certainly could be right. I have the impression that the nostalgia/Memorial Day factors will kick in and it'll be pretty big. The previews and early buzz are positive. We'll see pretty soon. Right?

 

[InCali]

They all interest me. Currently have COVID and don’t want to risk reinfection especially since there’s no mask mandate and seat spacing at my theater anymore. I might change my mind if masks are required again or they block out seats in between people.

I hear ya on that. While I don't really worry about myself, I can't afford to make a mistake and catch COVID because many of my family members are high risk.. I go and see movies on Tuesdays during the mid-day and they are always pretty much empty. I also sit in the front middle with my nose in the screen and most people hate that. I'm always alone; which is just how I like it when I watch a movie. I also keep my mask on and drink through a straw.

 

[Prison Mike]

I hear ya on that. While I don't really worry about myself, I can't afford to make a mistake and catch COVID because many of my family members are high risk.. I go and see movies on Tuesdays during the mid-day and they are always pretty much empty. I also sit in the front middle with my nose in the screen and most people hate that. I'm always alone; which is just how I like it when I watch a movie. I also keep my mask on and drink through a straw.

Yeah I would probably go during the middle of the week but it’s hard to get out of work for a few hours in the middle of the day. Also, I feel like I can wait for the movies to come on streaming. I don’t feel that sense of urgency anymore. Thor will probably be on Disney+ by the end of August anyway.

 

[JKKS085]

Yeah. I definitely get that and is why I said I thought I was being generous with the 45% drop AND 7 week run. After June 22, I projected that the weekend totals would be down in the 1.xxM range which is basically peanuts and it's probably better business to satisfy your D+ customers than it is to try and scrape a few more bucks out of the theatrical run. Plus, you've got Thor coming up on the heels of the end of its run and there's a lot of money to be made there.

Yep to all of that.
MoM’s performance this weekend will also be somewhat hindered by the release of Top Gun so we could a steeper than expected drop. Top Gun has been constantly tracking up and could open north of 100M (or way exceed projections given the amazing reception). Any way you look at it, it will take most PLF screens away from Strange so that will have an effect in and off itself.
I’d love to see 400M, but at that point, with the data we have, it just doesn’t add up. 385/390 I could agree with but anything above that will be hard. Even if « late legs » start to kick in there’s just too much stuff on the way.

 

[InCali]

Yeah I would probably go during the middle of the week but it’s hard to get out of work for a few hours in the middle of the day. Also, I feel like I can wait for the movies to come on streaming. I don’t feel that sense of urgency anymore. Thor will probably be on Disney+ by the end of August anyway.

I used to volunteer to do off hours work so I could get Friday afternoons off when I worked at UCLA. If all else fails, tell them you have a case of numbers block. Before we converted the garage to an ADU, I had a home movie theater out there. 3D projector, 120" screen, and really nice Dolby surround sound, but it's STILL not the same as seeing it in a theater.

 

[InCali]

Yep to all of that.
MoM’s performance this weekend will also be somewhat hindered by the release of Top Gun so we could a steeper than expected drop. Top Gun has been constantly tracking up and could open north of 100M (or way exceed projections given the amazing reception). Any way you look at it, it will take most PLF screens away from Strange so that will have an effect in and off itself.
I’d love to see 400M, but at that point, with the data we have, it just doesn’t add up. 385/390 I could agree with but anything above that will be hard. Even if « late legs » start to kick in there’s just too much stuff on the way.

Yeah. I'd love it to crack 400M too and was always a big fan of DS. I've always been a scientist at heart and never minded being wrong. The way I look at it is that, when you realize you're wrong, you just learned something and that's a very good thing.
Good point about the seats. I hadn't considered that, but it was "sort" of built into my prediction because I looked at past trends and they also lost seats after 3 or 4 weeks.

I thought, and think, high 380 and low 390s. It's clearly starting to fall a little behind CA:CW.

EDIT: Oh yeah.....also, I just realized a little earlier that I was a bit off on my weekday BO numbers as I was comparing the after week numbers to the weekend when I should have been comparing the previous week numbers. It's just a few million and small potatoes in the big picture, but made me up my overall DOM numbers just a bit. I blame it on those damn wineries that produce sparkling wines in California.

 

[Erzengel]

They all interest me. Currently have COVID and don’t want to risk reinfection especially since there’s no mask mandate and seat spacing at my theater anymore. I might change my mind if masks are required again or they block out seats in between people.

I still am overly cautious.

I usually try and find seats like this in the corner and I still wear a mask.

 

[TheVileOne]

Domestic 2022 Weekend 20 - Box Office Mojo

Why I feel more confident about my prediction. The weekend actuals for the drop to the third frame are now LOWER than 48%. The actuals were higher than the estimates.

The drop for the first weekend was huge, but that was more systemic of how huge the first opening weekend was more so than some idea that everyone hated the film.

Batman v Superman didn't have a sub-50% drop in its third weekend.

Civil War's second weekend drop was not as big as Doctor Strange's, but Civil War had a much higher drop in its third weekend, where its biggest competition was The Angry Birds Movie and The Neighbors. Point being, if we're matching this up against Civil War, the numbers even themselves out.

 

[Batgirl0202]

By the way, thanks for the clear prediction; we could use more of that around here.

My pleasure! Thanks for your thoughtful analysis as well. And you're probably right, MoM will most likely end up around $397 million or something like that. Still an impressive number for a character like Strange, who was never an A-Lister in the books like Bats, Supes, Spidey, etc, were...

I'll admit to being one of those fans who honestly thought that MoM had a lock on $1 billion. Between the coveted summer kick-off date, hardly any competition until the end of May, and being the spiritual successor to one of the most successful films in history (NWH), I figured $1 billion was a shoe-in. I didn't expect MoM to do NWH numbers but I didn't think it would struggle to do half of NWH's box office either...

I honestly don't know what to expect now for Thor and Black Panther in terms of box office prospects. Love and Thunder will be fine because it's the last major superhero movie until Black Adam hits, and Wakanda Forever should be good because it has hardly any competition until Avatar releases more than a month later...

Speaking of The Way of Water, I'm thinking that I might have grossly underestimated its box office potential. For the past couple weeks, just about everyone I know has been geeking out over the trailer, from my grandmother on down. I've even had people say to me that they're gonna get a fourth shot in the fall so they feel safe watching TWOW multiple times in the theatre!!

I honestly thought Avatar had left the cultural conversation. I've been wrong before and I'm starting to think this is one of those times...

 

[InCali]

My pleasure! Thanks for your thoughtful analysis as well. And you're probably right, MoM will most likely end up around $397 million or something like that. Still an impressive number for a character like Strange, who was never an A-Lister in the books like Bats, Supes, Spidey, etc, were...

I'll admit to being one of those fans who honestly thought that MoM had a lock on $1 billion. Between the coveted summer kick-off date, hardly any competition until the end of May, and being the spiritual successor to one of the most successful films in history (NWH), I figured $1 billion was a shoe-in. I didn't expect MoM to do NWH numbers but I didn't think it would struggle to do half of NWH's box office either...

I honestly don't know what to expect now for Thor and Black Panther in terms of box office prospects. Love and Thunder will be fine because it's the last major superhero movie until Black Adam hits, and Wakanda Forever should be good because it has hardly any competition until Avatar releases more than a month later...

Speaking of The Way of Water, I'm thinking that I might have grossly underestimated its box office potential. For the past couple weeks, just about everyone I know has been geeking out over the trailer, from my grandmother on down. I've even had people say to me that they're gonna get a fourth shot in the fall so they feel safe watching TWOW multiple times in the theatre!!

I honestly thought Avatar had left the cultural conversation. I've been wrong before and I'm starting to think this is one of those times...

Whatever happens MOM has had a very impressive theatrical run. I was also one of those that thought 1 billion was pretty much a lock and it would’ve been had it opened in the same markets that other billion dollar shows did so in terms of popularity, I put it right there with the others.

edit: It was a smart move to release the original avatar a few months before the new one opens. It occurs to me that it’s likely to overtake endgame in worldwide box office.

 

[InCali]

I still am overly cautious.

I usually try and find seats like this in the corner and I still wear a mask.

When I go I haven’t had anybody within 20 feet of me. The XD screen at the local Cinemark theater has a lower level it’s very close to the screen and almost nobody ever sits there. Especially mid day on Tuesdays.

 

[InCali]

They all interest me. Currently have COVID and don’t want to risk reinfection especially since there’s no mask mandate and seat spacing at my theater anymore. I might change my mind if masks are required again or they block out seats in between people.

How are you doing? Were the symptoms mild?

 

[Prison Mike]

How are you doing? Were the symptoms mild?

I’m doing much better than last week, thanks. Compared to if I was not vaxxed and boosted, the symptoms were probably “mild”, but honestly it didn’t feel like it. I had a fever, fatigue, body aches, sore throat, congestion, and night sweats. The worst of it probably lasted 2-3 days. Still have a stuffy nose and cough but I’m 95% to normal by now. Can’t imagine what it would be like without the vaccine.

 

[TheVileOne]

Get well soon @Prison Mike!

 

[JKKS085]

Well Monday to Monday drop is just 31%. +200K over CW on their respective 3rd Mondays.
Overall MoM is running 4M behind after 18 days.

 

[Mysteryman]

They all interest me. Currently have COVID and don’t want to risk reinfection especially since there’s no mask mandate and seat spacing at my theater anymore. I might change my mind if masks are required again or they block out seats in between people.

I hope that you Recover Quickly & Stay Well.

 

[InCali]

Well Monday to Monday drop is just 31%. +200K over CW on their respective 3rd Mondays.
Overall MoM is running 4M behind after 18 days.

Yeah. Very good Monday hold. Next weekend will be the key. It HAS to end the weekend in at least mid-370s to have a shot at 400M. Weekday holds like this will help, but getting 30M in the 3 weeks after is a pretty steep climb. Expect a large BO drop after the holiday weekend.

 

[Erzengel]

That certainly could be right. I have the impression that the nostalgia/Memorial Day factors will kick in and it'll be pretty big. The previews and early buzz are positive. We'll see pretty soon. Right?

They are really setting up Top Gun to succeed. Personally this isn't my jam. I wasn't even a huge fan of the original. But 4,732 screens which is the highest amount of screens ever, they are setting this up to succeed.

Box Office: ‘Top Gun 2’ Targets Career-Best Opening for Tom Cruise – The Hollywood Reporter

Top Gun 2 is easily headed for the biggest opening of Tom Cruise’s career at the domestic box office, with a four-day gross of at least $92 million, according to official tracking. And that’s a conservative estimate. Many pundits believe the critically acclaimed sequel could soar well north of $100 million domestically, but tracking — one of Hollywood’s favorite pastimes — has become fraught in the pandemic era. Exhibitors are especially bullish on the pic, and are even thinking $125 million-plus.

92 million I could see over 4 days. But I know I could be wrong.

 

[Prison Mike]

I think it will be $100M+ over the 4 days

 

[InCali]

They are really setting up Top Gun to succeed. Personally this isn't my jam. I wasn't even a huge fan of the original. But 4,732 screens which is the highest amount of screens ever, they are setting this up to succeed.

Box Office: ‘Top Gun 2’ Targets Career-Best Opening for Tom Cruise – The Hollywood Reporter



92 million I could see over 4 days. But I know I could be wrong.

I think it'll be higher. It's gotten good buzz and with the whole Memorial Day thing going on, along with the nostalgia factor, I think it's going to smash. It's not really my cup of tea either, but, like you said, TG is being given every opportunity to succeed and I think it could cause DS to take a pretty big hit. Hope I'm wrong, but stuff like this doesn't really affect me one way or the other.