Box office*

[psylockolussus]

Shang-Chi was pretty successful. Especially people were still dealing with the pandemic. Black Widow too and they definitely earned money from the Disney+ pay per view strategy.

The Marvels is the only mcu movie that truly flopped.

While SSU, DCEU and Foxverse were on their last leg.

 

[Mysteryman]

If you're counting the Marvels, wouldn't you need to include Deadpool and Wolverine?

Good Point.
D & W certainly didn’t flop.
Not even close.

 

[psylockolussus]

They (the other poster) probably counted Deadpool & Wolverine as Deadpool 3*

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Shang-Chi was pretty successful. Especially people were still dealing with the pandemic. Black Widow too and they definitely earned money from the Disney+ pay per view strategy.

The Marvels is the only mcu movie that truly flopped.

While SSU, DCEU and Foxverse were on their last leg.

Quantumania definitely flopped.

 

[Business Time]

If you're counting the Marvels, wouldn't you need to include Deadpool and Wolverine?

Fair.

I was looking at "The Marvels" as a new team brand introduced to the mainstream.

Whereas Deadpool and Wolverine are both very recognizable, established character IPs to the mainstream.

 

[Business Time]

Shang-Chi was pretty successful. Especially people were still dealing with the pandemic. Black Widow too and they definitely earned money from the Disney+ pay per view strategy.

The Marvels is the only mcu movie that truly flopped.

While SSU, DCEU and Foxverse were on their last leg.

Eternals was a flop as well. Cap 4 is looking to be a flop unfortunately. And of course Quantumania. Any film that does not make back it's production budget, when we consider the multiplier. Internally, even if the film breaks even, it is still considered a failure. Ultimately not justifying it's investment, to shareholders.

Shang-Chi might have been one of those films that barely broke even. Hopefully Disney took the pandemic into account when evaluating Shang-Chi's returns.

However, Shang-Chi's sequel is in development hell now. If the first film was a clearly defined 'success,' there would be faster movement on a sequel.


Personally, I think they are dragging their feet on Shang-Chi 2 because China rejected the first film and Simu.

 

[psylockolussus]

Underperformer isn't exactly a flop. To me a flopped movie, is something I would call a box office bomb - Catwoman, Fant4stic and Dark Phoenix. TASM2 also underperformed, but I wouldn't group it along with those 3 movies*

Shang-Chi 2 still not getting made imo, is mismanagement, just like Disney bombarded us with several Marvel tv shows that didn't improve the brand. They just have too many projects lined up. I doubt its because they aren't confident about a Shang-Chi 2. I mean, the next Avengers is being released 8 years after the last one*

 

[Filmfreak]

Quantumania is said to have cost 330 million (net) and only made 476 million back. It lost hundreds of million dollars theatrically, hence it didn't just underperform, it is by definition a big box office bomb. Even if it had cost 200 which was originally reported it would have lose money.

And unlike Shang Chi, Eternals and Black Widow it didn't even have covid as an excuse for the poor performance.

 

[Chris B]

My hunch is that WOM will ultimately decide this one's fate. I'm not expecting it do to gangbusters opening weekend but it can still have some legs if they've managed to deliver goods.

My hunch is that Feige and co. would be satisfied with a modest hit that gives them another franchise going forward.

 

[psylockolussus]

Quantumania is said to have cost 330 million (net) and only made 476 million back. It lost hundreds of million dollars theatrically, hence it didn't just underperform, it is by definition a big box office bomb. Even if it had cost 200 which was originally reported it would have lose money.

And unlike Shang Chi, Eternals and Black Widow it didn't even have covid as an excuse for the poor performance.

These budget reports are all over the place though. Marvel iirc always mention that the budget is more or less $200 million, then other publications report a different budget, which is way higher. And who really knows, how much the budget is, how much is removed when tax exemptions are put into the equation.

There's still a lot of audience under a $476 million worldwide gross, compare to what The Marvels earned in the same year ($205 million worldwide). The Marvels is the real bomb out of the two*

 

[Filmfreak]

These budget reports are all over the place though. Marvel iirc always mention that the budget is more or less $200 million, then other publications report a different budget, which is way higher. And who really knows, how much the budget is, how much is removed when tax exemptions are put into the equation.

There's still a lot of audience under a $476 million worldwide gross, compare to what The Marvels earned in the same year ($205 million worldwide). The Marvels is the real bomb out of the two*

The reported 330 million is as high of a number even after deductions (net). The original reported budget is even higher at 388 million (gross).

And studios tend to report lower budget for tax reasons, so when a higher price arrives it is probably more accurate, especially if it's way after the release of said film.

But again it would need to cost well under 200 million to break even with 476 million at the box office and it definitely didn't. The movie lost lots of money in it's theatrical run so it certainly didn't just underperform.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The reported 330 million is as high of a number even after deductions (net). The original reported budget is even higher at 388 million (gross).

And studios tend to report lower budget for tax reasons, so when a higher price arrives it is probably more accurate, especially if it's way after the release of said film.

But again it would need to cost well under 200 million to break even with 476 million at the box office and it definitely didn't. The movie lost lots of money in it's theatrical run so it certainly didn't just underperform.

Unless it's a studio unloading a lot of debt onto a successful project to avoid paying bonuses!

 

[lenz]

The latest estimates I've seen are still in the 65-85m range for opening weekend. WOM needs to be strong with this one.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think the movie will receive better reviews than Brave New World. But even good reviews won't salvage the movie if the general public isn't really interested in the first place.

Its really too bad, the first weekend of May was usually a huge weekend especially for a Marvel movie. Last year, we didn't get a Marvel movie in that weekend because Brave New World happened.

For the next two years, at least Avengers would bring back the tradition*

 

[psylockolussus]

MCU'S SUMMER MOVIES
MAY OR LATE APRIL RELEASE
2008 Iron Man (318M/585M)
2010 Iron Man 2 (312M/623M)
2011 Thor (181M/449M)
2012 Avengers (623M/1.5B)
2013 Iron Man 3 (409M/1.2B)
2015 Age of Ultron (459M/1.4B)
2016 Civil War (408M/1.1B)
2017 Guardians 2 (389M/863M)
2018 Infinity War (678M/2B)
2019 Endgame (858M/2.7B)
2022 Multiverse of Madness (411M/955M)
2023 Guardians 3 (358M/845M)
2025 Thunderbolts*

JUNE TO AUGUST RELEASE
2008 Incredible Hulk (134M/264M)
2011 First Avenger (176M/370M)
2014 Guardians (333M/772M)
2015 Ant-Man (180M/519M)
2017 Homecoming (334M/880M)
2018 Ant-Man 2 (216M/622M)
2019 Far from Home (390M/1.1B)
2021 Black Widow (183M/379M)
2022 Love and Thunder (343M/760M)
2024 Deadpool & Wolverine (636M/1.3B)
2025 Fantastic 4

Looking at this, even if it reaches 150 million in North America for its entire run. It would still be the lowest grossing MCU film to open in May. Worldwide would be the same scenario, Brave New World isn't even close to outgrossing Thor 1 worldwide*

 

[lenz]

I think the movie will receive better reviews than Brave New World. But even good reviews won't salvage the movie if the general public isn't really interested in the first place.

Its really too bad, the first weekend of May was usually a huge weekend especially for a Marvel movie. Last year, we didn't get a Marvel movie in that weekend because Brave New World happened.

For the next two years, at least Avengers would bring back the tradition*

It does look good, and I expect reviews to be pretty good.

This movie would have performed better and generated far more interest had it been released 4-5 years ago.

Avengers will do good business, but I don't expect the films to be very good unfortunately. I'm sure there will be some really cool moments at the very least.

 

[psylockolussus]

The Fall Guy got good reviews and opened the summer movie season last year, and it flopped. If there isn't interest in the first place, people would just wait for the movie to come out in a streaming service.

I'm not sure how the Marvel brand would help the Thunderbolts, when a Captain America movie is barely hitting the 200 million mark in North America and about 420 million globally*

 

[DarkKnight88]

The latest estimates I've seen are still in the 65-85m range for opening weekend. WOM needs to be strong with this one.

As of right now, I could actually see this opening below 60M.

The biggest benefit that Fantastic Four has over this is that looks like a fresh start narratively and visually for people burned out at the past few Marvel films.

 

[psylockolussus]

The problem with the Fantastic 4, is there even a demand for a new movie outside of the fanbase? If that movie is coming out months after an Avengers movie or Spider-Man, and at least 1 of the F4 appeared in those movies, to hype up the reboot, it would really help.

But the Fantastic 4, is coming out after Brave New World and Thunderbolts. Superman isn't Marvel and would act as a direct competition especially both are out in the same month. Any goodwill from Deadpool & Wolverine, is probably already wasted with Brave New World since BNW didn't score well with audiences*

 

[psylockolussus]

$85 million is quite optimistic. $70million opening is more realistic*

Post in thread 'The Thunderbolts* News and Discussion Thread'

Apr 10, 2025

Marvel’s ‘Thunderbolts*’ Tracking for Fair $70M U.S. Opening

The superhero pic — introducing a new team of antiheroes and villains to the big screen — hopes to grow that number by the time it kicks off the summer box office season May 2.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

• Pennywise

 

[psylockolussus]

Thunderbolts* CinemaCon Trailer Reveals the Real Villain (It's Not Sentry) - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie News - SuperHeroHype

The recent CinemaCon trailer for Marvel's Thunderbolts* seems to have revealed the upcoming film's main villain. Read on for all the details.

www.superherohype.com

Box Office Pro
$67 to $82 million (opening weekend, North America)

Thunderbolts* Box Office Tracking Below Captain America 4’s Opening Weekend - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie News - SuperHeroHype

Early box office projections for Marvel's Thunderbolts* movie predict it will make less than Captain America 4 during its opening weekend.

www.superherohype.com

The Hollywood Reporter
$63 to $77 million (opening weekend, North America)

I wonder if this would be effected by the tariffs*

 

[Sithborg]

No, it is not affected by tariffs. At least, not directly.

It is absolutely bomb in China, because while it may be allowed, national sentiment is not going to be be kind to Hollywood movies. Especially superheroes, which tend to be very american.

 

[psylockolussus]

Disney should be hoping it opens at least 70 million in North America, with at least 2.2 multiplier for the rest of its run, for a total of at least $150 million. Worldwide, I can't picture it outgrossing Brave New World, so definitely below $400 million.

I think Minecraft being a big hit a month, before Thunderbolts' release isn't going to help, as people these days are more selective what they choose to watch in the cinemas*

 

[psylockolussus]

Box Office: ‘Thunderbolts*’ to Kick Off Summer Season in Pivotal Moment for Marvel Studios

The ensemble superhero pic led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan brings together a crew of misfits and outsiders who discover they are true heroes when banding together.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Opening 3 day weekend
70M to 73M domestically
160M to 175M globally

 

[lenz]

Not surprising. Its been in the ballpark of these projections for months now.

If the movie turns out to be good (which I am hopeful) and audiences respond, it could exceed these numbers, but it was never going to make huge numbers regardless. I believe Marvel likely had Winter Soldier numbers in mind when they were in the early development stages of this film, but now I'd think they would probably consider 500m a huge win.