Well I honestly think TDK is a great film and worthy of being considered for an Oscar. Since we haven't seen the more prestigious films and risky ones come out yet (they start popping up around September), we'll have to wait and see.
I think the film itself warrants no Oscar (outside of the obligatory visual effects and sound editing Oscars). You could make a decent argument for some of the actors, namely Oldman who I think really out shown everyone else. I felt Joker is mostly good, but overrated performance. I mostly point to the fact that if you look at Joker over the years, all his performances have been good: Mark Hammil, Jack Nicholson, Heath Ledger and even Ceasar Romero were all great in their respective portrayals. In the end I don't think it's honestly
that hard to do a good Joker. The idea and personality of a maniac clown who commits random acts of violence pretty much sells itself. Characters like Gordon, Harvey Dent/Two-Face and even Batman seem much easier to screw up. Gordon is a pretty bland character by description, which is one of the reasons I hold Oldman's performance in this film so highly. He made a character who has gone through years of films without really a decent performance into an interesting and conflicted person, who was capable of carrying a strong presence on screen.
Next on my list is Two-Face, who I though outdid the Joker as a villain. I loved how Eckhart, even as Dent, gave that little hint that this well put together DA was slightly unnerved and maybe wound a little too tightly. I loved the scene between him and Gordon in the hospital, I loved his speech about doing things to make the world "fair" and trying to be "an decent man in an indecent time". That stuff was truly great.
There were times when Ledger, who did a good job, kinda fell flat to me. Describing his scars was interesting, and a nice nod to Alan Moore, but ultimately I thought was a very flat moment for his character. Other lines like "I'm not [crazy], no, I'm not" and "do you wanna know which ones are cowards", plus the lack of laughter really threw me. Interesting take, yet it seemed more Hannible Lector-ish, whereas the scenes like the interrogation room with Batman were much more quintessential Joker to me. It seemed like, at times, Ledger just couldn't keep his energy levels up. While good, I still think he's third behind Gordon and Eckhart, who just floored me.
However the film, as opposed to the cast, had many of the hang ups I have with action movies. Bad supporting cast members (like "The Russian", Gamble and the Scarecrow who just simply were "eh" on screen...actually Gamble was just plain awful). Some campy dialoge (though not nearly as much as
Batman Begins). Some weird climax that didn't fit the rest of the movies gritty realism. It's good, but not Oscar good IMO.