Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[TalismanRing]

Only someone divorced from B.O. reality or really the person grasping at straws and reporting garbage (probably because they lost most of their reliable sources and leaks) at Bleeding Cool believes that AOU was considered a disappointment, relative or otherwise by Disney.

 

[jokesonm3]

$1.4 billion is far from a disappointment.

 

[Stevie2020]

Make no mistake, I think $1.4 billion is a tremendously satisfying (and personally unrelatable) number. But let's be realistic about one of the largest companies in the world. They are focused on profit. (yes, Disney is a fun, positive, entertaining brand, but they have bills to pay and shareholders to satisfy.) AoU cost more and made less money than Avengers which may or may not have been initially acceptable to TPTB. And so there may be a grain of truth in what was reported, even if it is sour apples flavored reportage. (Or just conjecture, for that matter.)

All things considered, if..IF...Disney/Marvel was disappointed in AoU's BO performance, it is ultimately...how you say?..rich people problems. Boo hoo, they earned a few hundred million dollars less than they thought they would. No gold party favors for the Christmas Party this year. LOL.

 

[doink]

Only someone divorced from B.O. reality or really the person grasping at straws and reporting garbage (probably because they lost most of their reliable sources and leaks) at Bleeding Cool believes that AOU was considered a disappointment, relative or otherwise by Disney.

The BC writer and sources obviously forgot Disney's real box office disappointment last summer...

Not to mention that story completely contradicted other nonsense BC "scoops" like how "IW's budget is totally $1b!!!1111!!!OMG!!!!1!!!" Because Disney would be totally OK with spending $1b on IW if they really thought AoU was a "disappointment". Come on BC...

 

[ImSGirl95]

Not to mention that story completely contradicted other nonsense BC "scoops" like how "IW's budget is totally $1b!!!1111!!!OMG!!!!1!!!" Because Disney would be totally OK with spending $1b on IW if they really thought AoU was a "disappointment". Come on BC...

BC is a joke ...

 

[Spitfire]

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/star-wars-rogue-one-2016-anticipated-movies-1201670942/#respond

Civil War is 5th in survey of most anticipated movies of 2016.

 

[Spider-jedi]

why does everyone think a superhero movie has to make a billion to be considered a hit? i feel lost here. i see places where people prefer a mediocre make a billion than to have a great movie make less than a billion? isnt that crazy?

 

[LucDisfilm19]

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/star-wars-rogue-one-2016-anticipated-movies-1201670942/#respond

Civil War is 5th in survey of most anticipated movies of 2016.

But, Tom Holland who will play the new MCU Spider-Man in Civil War was voted the Rising Male Movie Star for 2016.

 

[MbJ]

why does everyone think a superhero movie has to make a billion to be considered a hit? i feel lost here. i see places where people prefer a mediocre make a billion than to have a great movie make less than a billion? isnt that crazy?

The movies are getting bigger and more expensive so now everyone expects every movie to be the next Avengers or Force Awakens.

 

[samsnee]

Because once you make a billion once you've set a precedent.

 

[ernesth100]

Meh, usually only good movies make a killing in the BO like that anyways.

 

[samsnee]

Not really. See: Transformers and Alice in Wonderland

 

[kguillou]

To be fair, it really depends on what is invested on producing the movie. At first glance, you can look at Amazing Spiderman 2 and it made over 700 mill at the box office. Now you might say "Damn! Thats a quarter billion $$! Sony mustve been happy!" but as we all know, 700 million was considered a flop to Sony thus their deal with Marvel. The reason? The budget. Sony spent over 400 mill on the movie and therefore a 700 mill intake is not sufficient. There are tons and tons and tons of movies that could only WISH they had ASM2's BO but its all relative. I think thats why these days $1 Bill is the magic number, because these studios are spending more and more and more of these films and breaking a billion is becoming the profit margin line.

When you think about that, that's kind of insane.

 

[MbJ]

The marketing budgets have also gone up considerably, which is just as insane. You really shouldn't need another 100-200 million to market a movie about Spider-Man or the Avengers.

 

[warcam]

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/star-wars-rogue-one-2016-anticipated-movies-1201670942/#respond

Civil War is 5th in survey of most anticipated movies of 2016.

I wouldn't put too much stock in Fandango surveys. The Great Gatsby was one of the most anticipated of 2013, and CA:TWS and GotG didn't even register in 2014.

 

[metaphysician]

The marketing budgets have also gone up considerably, which is just as insane. You really shouldn't need another 100-200 million to market a movie about Spider-Man or the Avengers.

Avengers *didn't* need that kind of money, at least in real actual dollars, as opposed to barter. Neither did Star Wars, for that matter. What killed TASM wasn't some general trend in the industry, it was a specific mistake on the part of Sony, throwing good money after bad way past the point of no return.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Boxoffice.com posted there forecast for BvS:

Opening Weekend: $154,000,000

Cumulative: $380,000,000

Damn! Even I thought the initial predictions would have it at least at 175 mil OW.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...an-dawn-of-justice-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-2

 

[third3ye]

Boxoffice.com posted there forecast for BvS:

Opening Weekend: $154,000,000

Cumulative: $380,000,000

Damn! Even I thought the initial predictions would have it at least at 175 mil OW.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...an-dawn-of-justice-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-2

Um, this is the Captain America Civil War thread...

 

[Docker2.0]

Well..............that's kind of low for BvS. How is this CA:CW related? It's two heroes fighting each other. To be honest, if BvS makes that then DCU is doomed from the jump. That movie is hyped beyond belief(believe me, I will see that movie within a month of release)and I'd be disappointed in those numbers. CA:CW has built their franchise and have all returning characters except Black Panther who seems to be a mystery and Spiderman, even though everyone knows who he is. Once Spidey is revealed, I expect the BO OW tracking to increase by at least $10M.

 

[jokesonm3]

You know the Avengers also had a long range forecast of $155M and we all know how that exploded.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2012-03-long-range-forecast-marvels-the-avengers

Plus third3ye is right, this is the Civil War thread.

 

[ernesth100]

Well you gotta take into account the supposed superhero fatigue. Which will inevitably be shut down again when word of Gaint Man, Black Panther and especially Spider-Man get out. Those three are gonna be show stealers I tell ya. Probably what manages to push the film past a billion.

 

[TalismanRing]

Well you gotta take into account the supposed superhero fatigue. Which will inevitably be shut down again when word of Gaint Man, Black Panther and especially Spider-Man get out. Those three are gonna be show stealers I tell ya. Probably what manages to push the film past a billion.

Iron Man would push it past a billion by himself (and has). Even without IM, the way Cap was increasing O/S he probably would have been flirting with $900m+ WW especially with his growing popularity in China, SK and other quickly expanding markets in Asia and LA.

 

[ernesth100]

I wonder how much CW will makein Sokovia.

 

[metaphysician]

I wonder how much CW will makein Sokovia.

Depends on how much time is spent having Cap beat up that Hated Enemy Of Sokovia, Tony Stark.

 

[ernesth100]

Depends on how much time is spent having Cap beat up that Hated Enemy Of Sokovia, Tony Stark.