The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[craigdbfan]

It's the gift that keeps on giving.

 

[kedrell]

I believe Cap 2 opened much better in China than Thor 2. So that's excellent.

Well to be fair, I believe most of Thor's advantage in the OS markets comes from Europe due to the cultural mores and such. In China and the rest of Asia Thor might as well be Cap for all that they know about the mythology that he comes from.

 

[PunyGod]

Block? It should help it.

Maybe. I'm just thinking that The Avengers might shift the focus away from Cap unless he has a really big role.

 

[kedrell]

^Well I heard Hulk and Hawkeye were going to get a larger focus in TA:AoU since with the lone exception of the end credits scene in IM3, they were nowhere to be found in the phase 2 films.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Maybe. I'm just thinking that The Avengers might shift the focus away from Cap unless he has a really big role.

? The fact he is in the movie and is the leader is enough in itself. Cap 3 will probably be marketed as dealing with the direct fallout of AOU and will be coming off the momentum of not just one, but TWO critically acclaimed and successful films all in succession. Cap will be riding as high as he's ever been heading into Cap 3 and AOU only helps that.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Cap 3 will probably be marketed as dealing with the direct fallout of AOU

Why do you think that? From the looks of things the next movie will be following up on the Winter Soldier, and whatever new villain they introduce to tell that story. I don't see any reason to think that Cap 3 will be especially tied to Avengers 2.

 

[DN91]

^ It'll at least address things like [BLACKOUT]The fall of SHIELD, Nick Fury and whatever he's doing, plus Baron Strucker and his machinations with Loki's Staff and the Twins.[/BLACKOUT]

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Why do you think that? From the looks of things the next movie will be following up on the Winter Soldier, and whatever new villain they introduce to tell that story. I don't see any reason to think that Cap 3 will be especially tied to Avengers 2.

It will be tied to both just as aou will be influenced by cap2

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well to be fair, I believe most of Thor's advantage in the OS markets comes from Europe due to the cultural mores and such. In China and the rest of Asia Thor might as well be Cap for all that they know about the mythology that he comes from.

You are correct.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Why do you think that? From the looks of things the next movie will be following up on the Winter Soldier, and whatever new villain they introduce to tell that story. I don't see any reason to think that Cap 3 will be especially tied to Avengers 2.

As Mahvel said, it will be tied to both. If AOU doesn't have repercussions for Cap then it would have failed its job. It will, and since Cap is the leader, and the last movie he had had the most to do with setting up AOU, it only makes sense Cap3 will have heavy ties to AOU's resolution as well as picking up threads leftover from TWS.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I can't wait to see the bump Cap 3 gets from TWS and AoU. I can't wait to see what the Russos give us next! I have WAY more faith in this than BvS quality wise. Still think BvS likely will net more money, but I don't care about any of that. All I care about is getting a top notch Captain America 3!

Which is why you brought it up.

Great numbers, and hopefully just the beginning.

 

[Mr. Dent]

CA2: THE WINTER SOLDIER hit $107.1M overseas this weekend. Top markets: CHI ($39M) KOR ($20M) UK ($18M) MEX ($16M) FRA ($12M)

Thor:TDW after the second weekend in Mexico $15.5m, in SK $14.5m, in France $15m, in the UK $22.3m. China OW $21m

From BO forums

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It opened to $39m in China? Holy dollar bills Batman!!!!

And another note, why does any film open late in China and other Asian territories? If you want to make money in China open early or within a week.

 

[Hcmarvel]

It opened to $39m in China? Holy dollar bills Batman!!!!

And another note, why does any film open late in China and other Asian territories? If you want to make money in China open early or within a week.

Slightly racist guess coming up but perhaps they're worried about the bootleg market which is huge there?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Slightly racist guess coming up but perhaps they're worried about the bootleg market which is huge there?

No, I get that. Which is why I don't understand why some films delay the release for weeks and sometimes months.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

$39m....???

 

[Silver Surfer]

If I was WB I would be picking a new date for BvS right about now....

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Slightly racist guess coming up but perhaps they're worried about the bootleg market which is huge there?

Even though most won't say it outright, combating piracy is one of the reasons they do it. Another is to build hype before it hits the US as a movie rakes in money overseas.

 

[PunyGod]

Slightly racist guess coming up but perhaps they're worried about the bootleg market which is huge there?

If they were worried about the bootleg market they would open it sooner not later.

That's the whole reason why they've started this policy in the last few years of opening internationally first. Before now when a movie opened 2 months later in some countries everyone had already pirated it by then. So now they open there first and don't even give the pirates a chance. (Its assumed that the US doesn't pirate as much so they don't lose much business by opening later here.)

But not including China in that early release doesn't make sense since as you say they probably have the biggest bootleg market of all.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If they were worried about the bootleg market they would open it sooner not later.

That's the whole reason why they've started this policy in the last few years of opening internationally first. Before now when a movie opened 2 months later in some countries everyone had already pirated it by then. So now they open there first and don't even give the pirates a chance. (Its assumed that the US doesn't pirate as much so they don't lose much business by opening later here.)

But not including China in that early release doesn't make sense since as you say they probably have the biggest bootleg market of all.

My exact point.

 

[TalismanRing]

The date for China was chosen was because of the holiday - hence the huge opening which is predicted to lead to a huge week and a final gross of about $90-100.

 

[Hcmarvel]

My exact point.

Gotcha. I guess I thought that a lot of bootlegs originate in China. Thanks for the correction

 

[Mr. Dent]

It's crazy this is beating IM3 in China.

 

[TalismanRing]

It's crazy this is beating IM3 in China.

Iron Man 3 though had a 5 day opening weekend so it's really not comparable

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The date for China was chosen was because of the holiday - hence the huge opening which is predicted to lead to a huge week and a final gross of about $90-100.

Boss.

And thanks for the info.

Gotcha. I guess I thought that a lot of bootlegs originate in China. Thanks for the correction

No problem.