The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I'll be conservative, and predict about 500M WW. Comfortably ahead of what the first movie did, but not vastly so.

 

500 million worldwide at least, maybe 600-650 million at most.

 

Opening Weekend: It really depends on how well Iron Man 3/Thor 2 are received. I'm gonna say $85M
Domestic: $270
Oversees: $350
Worldwide: $620M

 

I'd say 200 M Dom
and maybe 300 Over

500 WW

 

500m

 

If it can make that, it's a huge success.

 

510m ww

 

495m ww.

 

Right now, without having seen how any post-Avengers solo flicks perform OR any footage from the film, I'm gonna say...

Opening Weekend: $80M

Domestic Take: $230m

International Take: $260m

Worldwide: $490m

And I predict this prediction will change quite a bit by the time we get to next year, lol.

 

Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.

 

570-610 million.

 

I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.

 

600 million. no less.

 

Yeah, it's all but guaranteed to make at LEAST $200M domestically.

 

I think Domestically 300 mill

 

Marvel/Disney was very shrewd in choosing to release Captain America: The Winter Soldier in April instead during the much more crowded summer months. Other films have reached blockbuster status by releasing in late winter/spring when there is less competition. Although CA is facing a real contender in Denzel Washington's The Equalizer* in its second weekend, I think that it stands a great chance of opening big and then holding on for a less than 60% drop.

Domestically, TWS could make $250 million or more if it is well received by the public and has the sort of marketing behind it that IM3 has had. In the overseas market it could easily do $400 million+ since TFA took in a better than expected $191M OS. With a boost from TA, Marvel's Chinese marketing partnership and the inclusion of Jackson, Johansson and Redford, this could break out in a big way. My prediction is $650M WW but I rounded up to $700M. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

* The Equalizer is a remake of the TV show from the 1980s that featured Edward Woodward as a mercenary who switched to protecting ordinary people who were being victimized by criminals. The production has been in some turmoil as the first director suddenly dropped it and filming was postponed. I haven't heard what the status is since then.

 

I'm actually feeling that Rio 2 will be more of a challenger for TWS in its 2nd week than The Equalizer. Animated films always seem to open well.

 

Of the 5 films releasing in phase 2 I think this one will make the least.

1.The Avengers 2
2.Iron Man 3
3.Thor the dark world
4. Guardians of the galaxy
5.Captain America The winter soldier

 

I don't think GotG is going to beat TWS due to it being a new franchise and it being relatively obscure. TWS would have to look really bad for it not to at least beat TFA's box office total.

 

I think it will perform like G.I. Joe Retaliation but about 30 to 50% better because its part of Marvel Cinematic Universe. But the April release date isn't gonna help it cross the $200 million mark at the domestic box-office. The only movie that was released in April to gross more than $200 million (domestically) is Fast Five.

Well Inception was directed by Christopher Nolan and Leonardo DiCaprio was the lead actor. I don't think you can compare that to Guardians of the Galaxy.

 

I think the April release date is going to help it more than hurt it. April '14 is essentially going to be the month of Captain America, and if it ends up getting good word of mouth, it'll steamroll everything in its path until TASM 2 comes out in May. I mean Iron Man 3 has The Great Gatsby and Star Trek Into Darkness to worry about. Thor 2 has Catching Fire to worry about. The only thing Cap 2 has to worry about is Rio 2. April 4th 2014 is a very favorable release date.