The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[Mr. Dent]

Really eager to discuss this. No trailer yet and what not, but we have Redford on the cast and tons of other info. For now I'm predicting:

OW: $85m
DOM: $235m
INT: $310m
WW: $545m

 

[metaphysician]

I'll be conservative, and predict about 500M WW. Comfortably ahead of what the first movie did, but not vastly so.

 

[DN91]

500 million worldwide at least, maybe 600-650 million at most.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Opening Weekend: It really depends on how well Iron Man 3/Thor 2 are received. I'm gonna say $85M
Domestic: $270
Oversees: $350
Worldwide: $620M

 

[Superhero 101]

I'd say 200 M Dom
and maybe 300 Over

500 WW

 

[Duran Man]

500m

 

[Tony Stark]

Really eager to discuss this. No trailer yet and what not, but we have Redford on the cast and tons of other info. For now I'm predicting:

OW: $85m
DOM: $235m
INT: $310m
WW: $545m

If it can make that, it's a huge success.

 

[T"Challa]

510m ww

 

[Bren]

495m ww.

 

[flickchick85]

Right now, without having seen how any post-Avengers solo flicks perform OR any footage from the film, I'm gonna say...

Opening Weekend: $80M

Domestic Take: $230m

International Take: $260m

Worldwide: $490m

And I predict this prediction will change quite a bit by the time we get to next year, lol.

 

[psylockolussus]

Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.

 

[BullMcGiveny]

570-610 million.

 

[flickchick85]

Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.

I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

600 million. no less.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.

Yeah, it's all but guaranteed to make at LEAST $200M domestically.

 

[KyleStark]

I think Domestically 300 mill

 

[Xeno]

Marvel/Disney was very shrewd in choosing to release Captain America: The Winter Soldier in April instead during the much more crowded summer months. Other films have reached blockbuster status by releasing in late winter/spring when there is less competition. Although CA is facing a real contender in Denzel Washington's The Equalizer* in its second weekend, I think that it stands a great chance of opening big and then holding on for a less than 60% drop.

Domestically, TWS could make $250 million or more if it is well received by the public and has the sort of marketing behind it that IM3 has had. In the overseas market it could easily do $400 million+ since TFA took in a better than expected $191M OS. With a boost from TA, Marvel's Chinese marketing partnership and the inclusion of Jackson, Johansson and Redford, this could break out in a big way. My prediction is $650M WW but I rounded up to $700M. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

* The Equalizer is a remake of the TV show from the 1980s that featured Edward Woodward as a mercenary who switched to protecting ordinary people who were being victimized by criminals. The production has been in some turmoil as the first director suddenly dropped it and filming was postponed. I haven't heard what the status is since then.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Marvel/Disney was very shrewd in choosing to release Captain America: The Winter Soldier in April instead during the much more crowded summer months. Other films have reached blockbuster status by releasing in late winter/spring when there is less competition. Although CA is facing a real contender in Denzel Washington's The Equalizer* in its second weekend, I think that it stands a great chance of opening big and then holding on for a less than 60% drop.

Domestically, TWS could make $250 million or more if it is well received by the public and has the sort of marketing behind it that IM3 has had. In the overseas market it could easily do $400 million+ since TFA took in a better than expected $191M OS. With a boost from TA, Marvel's Chinese marketing partnership and the inclusion of Jackson, Johansson and Redford, this could break out in a big way. My prediction is $650M WW but I rounded up to $700M. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

* The Equalizer is a remake of the TV show from the 1980s that featured Edward Woodward as a mercenary who switched to protecting ordinary people who were being victimized by criminals. The production has been in some turmoil as the first director suddenly dropped it and filming was postponed. I haven't heard what the status is since then.

I'm actually feeling that Rio 2 will be more of a challenger for TWS in its 2nd week than The Equalizer. Animated films always seem to open well.

 

[KDM1986]

Of the 5 films releasing in phase 2 I think this one will make the least.

1.The Avengers 2
2.Iron Man 3
3.Thor the dark world
4. Guardians of the galaxy
5.Captain America The winter soldier

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Of the 5 films releasing in phase 2 I think this one will make the least.

1.The Avengers 2
2.Iron Man 3
3.Thor the dark world
4. Guardians of the galaxy
5.Captain America The winter soldier

I don't think GotG is going to beat TWS due to it being a new franchise and it being relatively obscure. TWS would have to look really bad for it not to at least beat TFA's box office total.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Marvel/Disney was very shrewd in choosing to release Captain America: The Winter Soldier in April instead during the much more crowded summer months.

I think the only reason they did that is because Spider-Man comes out in May, X-Men in July, and Guardians in August. I doubt it's some masterplan to maximize Cap 2's profits.

I don't think GotG is going to beat TWS due to it being a new franchise and it being relatively obscure. TWS would have to look really bad for it not to at least beat TFA's box office total.

It's not going to be obscure by the time it comes out. As for it being a new franchise, that shouldn't really be held against it. Pixar and Disney release new franchise movies every year that make $500m+ worldwide. Hell, forget Disney, just look at Inception. If a new franchise is pushed by the studio hard and it is really good then it can blow up.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.

I think it will perform like G.I. Joe Retaliation but about 30 to 50% better because its part of Marvel Cinematic Universe. But the April release date isn't gonna help it cross the $200 million mark at the domestic box-office. The only movie that was released in April to gross more than $200 million (domestically) is Fast Five.

Hell, forget Disney, just look at Inception. If a new franchise is pushed by the studio hard and it is really good then it can blow up.

Well Inception was directed by Christopher Nolan and Leonardo DiCaprio was the lead actor. I don't think you can compare that to Guardians of the Galaxy.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Guardians in some ways is in even better position than Inception. It doesn't have to rely on big name actors and directors. I'm just saying being a new franchise doesn't inherently mean a film can't do extremely well. And obviously Inception isn't the only example of this.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I think it will perform like G.I. Joe Retaliation but about 30 to 50% better because its part of Marvel Cinematic Universe. But the April release date isn't gonna help it cross the $200 million mark at the domestic box-office. The only movie that was released in April to gross more than $200 million (domestically) is Fast Five.

I think the April release date is going to help it more than hurt it. April '14 is essentially going to be the month of Captain America, and if it ends up getting good word of mouth, it'll steamroll everything in its path until TASM 2 comes out in May. I mean Iron Man 3 has The Great Gatsby and Star Trek Into Darkness to worry about. Thor 2 has Catching Fire to worry about. The only thing Cap 2 has to worry about is Rio 2. April 4th 2014 is a very favorable release date.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yeah Cap really will suck up all the movie hype in that month. That may boost its gross more than I'm giving it credit for.