David Poland says "Disney might kill Thor."

[yoshimura]

Thor's gonna make reh-dik-ulouz amounts of money. My only concern is that by 2011 we'll be in a depression and living in a police state. Other than that, Thor & Cap are laughing all the way to golden coinage.

 

[Keyser Soze]

I really hope the box office pie in Summer 2011 is big enough for Green Lantern, Captain America AND Thor to get a generous slice.

 

[TheCorpulent1]

I wouldn't count on any comic book movies being automatic successes anymore. They've been around for long enough now that they're becoming commonplace. Big, special-effects-laden shoot-'em-ups were guaranteed to turn big profits once upon a time, but now they come and go with barely a whimper often enough.

 

[Chewy]

Summer 2011 is really turning into quite the cluster****

Thor
Green Lantern
Captain America
Spider-Man 4
Harry Potter 8
Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Cowboys and Aliens
Kung Fu Panda 2
The Hangover 2
Cars 2
Star Trek 2
The Expendables
and now potentially Lobo

I mean, Jesus

 

[TheCorpulent1]

They've actually got a sequel to The Hangover moving forward with a general release target? Yeesh, I thought Conan and, like, every star of the first movie were just making jokes about that.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah, they gave it a very firm date - one week after Thor

 

[yoshimura]

Isn't Green Lantern being pushed back 5 months?

 

[TheVileOne]

Green Hornet was delayed.

 

[yoshimura]

OOOOooh. oh.

thanks

 

[FaT_tONle]

Just curious, what are your predicted box office figures for Cap and Thor?

Too early to say, but I'd go 130/200 for Thor. Anywhere from 180-250 domestic for Cap with 150-200 WW. Around 350-400 WW for both, which I would think will be acceptable for them. I don't see an outright flop. I'll be shocked if Avengers doesn't happen, but until another character not named Iron Man performs, the doubts will linger.

 

[Venom'sDad]

I don't see Cap doing that well over seas; mainly because of what he represent, and the sentiments towards America. Needs more time and info before putting a figure to it.

 

[Webhead2006]

Yup there is nothing we fans can do about things. As for thor and cap i see no issues with them right now. To something is said by paramount, marvel, and their respected directors i think everything is still a go. And i am sure now with marvel with disney things can be marketed/promoted alot which disney is good at. Plus yea if disney is doing that persia film i would not see any problems with thor since they are in a simular genre type films, just like pirates was too for disney.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Summer 2011 is really turning into quite the cluster****

Thor
Green Lantern
Captain America
Spider-Man 4
Harry Potter 8
Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Cowboys and Aliens
Kung Fu Panda 2
The Hangover 2
Cars 2
Star Trek 2
The Expendables
and now potentially Lobo

I mean, Jesus

Expendables is April 2010 I believe. I haven't heard anything on Stark Trek 2, but if you had that AND POTC 4 with the rest of those films, I think the bubble will finally burst on the summer box office. So much money to go around that the studios will probably end up misplacing profits and lose money.

 

[zeptron]

Expendables got pushed to August 2010.

 

[Kurosawa]

While Thor is a comic book movie, it compares more to LOTR than anything else...and Disney wants a franchise like that badly.

 

[Evil Twin]

Nothing compares to LotR as far as general awareness. That's one of the best selling book series of the 20th century. Thor just as easily compares to Conan, Dragonslayer, and Beowulf. New Line wanted the next Harry Potter, but The Golden Compass wasn't it.

I'm sure Marvel has done some marketing studies, but I think at first blush the assumption would be that Thor is less popular than Wolverine. And that's where you set your budget with the hopes that it blows up big at the box office, ala Iron Man. But, Iron Man is likely to be the exception, not the rule.

 

[Venom'sDad]

Nothing compares to LotR as far as general awareness. That's one of the best selling book series of the 20th century. Thor just as easily compares to Conan, Dragonslayer, and Beowulf. New Line wanted the next Harry Potter, but The Golden Compass wasn't it.

I'm sure Marvel has done some marketing studies, but I think at first blush the assumption would be that Thor is less popular than Wolverine. And that's where you set your budget with the hopes that it blows up big at the box office, ala Iron Man. But, Iron Man is likely to be the exception, not the rule.

Exactly, I totally agree. Great post and overall point.

I think that's what Poland was trying to get across. I'm no fan of the man, just saying; he did bring up some valid concerns for Disney, in todays economy.

 

[Webhead2006]

Stupid economy being a darn huge factor in everything in life these days. I hope our US economy can and does get back on track and in a better place sooner rather then later.

 

[Hypestyle]

Disney better not kill Thor, they'll have fan revolt on their hands.. Thor could be the Lord of the Rings franchise for the studio.. get with it.. publish more Thor comics, aggressively push more TPBs.. keep momentum on the animated projects.. thor probably isn't at the Universal Marvel island (is he?) so might as well start hiring blonde guys to walk around Orlando in the costume..

 

[Sawyer]

Are people actually taking this hack seriously? He sounds like he's full of **** to me...

 

[Texas]

Here may be another motivation to kill Thor... POTC is scheduled for 2011 as of now. How is Disney going to bankroll Thor, Cap, and Pirates in one summer alongside Cars 2? Before they just to worry about two of those films. Now all four? Someone has to go to 2012... meaning Avengers may get pushed to 2013/2014.

Here's the thing, "How is Marvel going to bankroll these movies" ? Has everyone forgotten that Marvel obtained financing a few years ago to produce their own movies. So, unless Disney wants to change that Marvel already has the financing as well as the profit made from the 1st Iron Man movie.

 

[Webhead2006]

Yea i wont take this guys words as true to marvel/disney/ and thor director come out and say its capoots for now. This type of films is the market disney wants to get boy/teen males and all that. Plus droping the narina films and not really having any other fantasy type films like a lotr this is a potential frachise they would want to get up and going.

 

[spider-neil]

Summer 2011 is really turning into quite the cluster****

Thor
Green Lantern
Captain America
Spider-Man 4
Harry Potter 8
Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Cowboys and Aliens
Kung Fu Panda 2
The Hangover 2
Cars 2
Star Trek 2
The Expendables
and now potentially Lobo

I mean, Jesus

potentially TDK2 will be 2011 as well.

 

[Keyser Soze]

potentially TDK2 will be 2011 as well.

No it won't. Or at least, it's HIGHLY unlikely. If its coming in 2011 its waaaay behind schedule, as at this stage last time round (2 years before the release of TDK), the film's title and release date confirmed, the cast and director were officially announced as back on board, and Heath Ledger had been cast as The Joker. So I'd say it looks like Batman 3 will be 2012 at the very earliest.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Here's the thing, "How is Marvel going to bankroll these movies" ? Has everyone forgotten that Marvel obtained financing a few years ago to produce their own movies. So, unless Disney wants to change that Marvel already has the financing as well as the profit made from the 1st Iron Man movie.

This was already brought up extensively in another thread. Marvel's financing deal, at least originally, was probably not enough to cover them completely for every film on the slate. Someone else said they had 150 million to spend on each film but I really doubt that was the case. Plus you are looking at a 200 million plus budget for most of these movie.