Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Discussion in 'Deadpool' started by Thread Manager, Feb 15, 2016.

  1. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    Like corpse wrote, not much in the way of comps for a Wednesday opening. We'll have a better idea after the weekend.
     
  2. Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Nice to see this still making money somewhere.
     
  3. RLAAMJR. Ororo Munroe's Boyfriend

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    I see. I'm so nervous. :)
     
  4. Joined:
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    Hopefully it can get enough to pass passion of christ
     
  5. Logan0327 Registered

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    dont know how well it will do since japan is not a huge market like china

    GOTG,Antman,DOFP all did 9 million in japan
     
  6. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    Japan can be big. Ask Frozen ($245 million). But yeah, that's unlikely. Best-case scenario is probably $40-50 million, basically Avengers coin. Omens seem good, it apparently did well Thursday (no numbers), has strong WOM and is No. 2 in presales for the weekend behind local product Evergreen Love.

    One thing to remember is that Japan is a notoriously slow-build market so it will probably take a week or two to get a solid read.
     
  7. -JKR- Registered

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    The Passion of the Christ record is domestic, so Japan won't change that.
     
  8. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    FWIW this from one of the guys on the bot boards:

    He's talking about Zootopia in the No. 3 spot. Deadpool is No. 2 so if his Zoo estimate is right DP will come in north of that. If so I think that's the biggest X-Men franchise opening in Japan. X2 did $3 million.
     
  9. Smilodon Registered

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    What's amazing about this film is that even overseas, the marketing is very unique and modern. The Japanese Deadpool account tweets fans who mention they saw the movie, Ryan also voices from ads for Japanese audiences, and they have a giant Deadpool statue that's being trucked around Japan which people can try and see/tweet about.

    https://twitter.com/DeadpoolMovieJP

    They also made a Deadpool version of the traditional Japanese card game, karuta, and just like how Ryan and co. kept thanking the fans for the film, this one also thanks international fans as well.

    Also a Japanese interview from Tim, reiterating that they're discussing X-Force and how they'd like for it to be a goal after the Deadpool sequel. (for those who get anxious over the thought of Kinberg being anywhere near this creatively)

    http://getnews.jp/archives/1461355

    Great effort from Fox internationally. I think these creative marketing efforts will definitely help the film in its final markets.
     
  10. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    Update from corpse...

    For comparisons sake, BvS opened to $3.3 million in Japan.
     
  11. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    @ERCboxoffice:

    DEADPOOL finally unspooled in Japan with $6.5M--larger than any other X-MEN flick. International total is now $409M.

    I assume that includes everything from Wednesday on. Sounds like about $4 million from the weekend proper, which would put it on par with The Avengers OW in Japan. Great start!
     
  12. Zant Registered

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    I can only imagine what this would have made in China. X men Apocalypse just had a big opening there, I bet this film would have done even better. Fox should try again and push for a release there.
    I remember, Despicable me 2 was banned but then was latter allowed to play there.
     
  13. Joined:
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    I think if it would have opened in China it would have easily made another 100-150 million
     
  14. marieylee Registered

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    It's at 772M WW. Should pass Guardians soon.

    Subtract China's total for BvS and it's at 776 M.
     
  15. Logan0327 Registered

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    772 million WW WOW

    you guys realize if china wasn't banned deadpool might of out grossed bvs lol
     
  16. RLAAMJR. Ororo Munroe's Boyfriend

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    And even reach a billion dollars. :)
     
  17. metaphysician Not a Side-Kick

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    OTOH, that is all contingent on it being released in China in uncut form. If the edits they demanded for approval were sufficiently harsh ( as I suspect they were ), the result would have probably been a net negative.
     
  18. Xrated48 Drink It In Man

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    Man I wish this film was not banned in China
     
  19. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    Final weekend breakdown from corpse:

    Weekend Actuals (06/04-05)/2016年06月04日-2016年06月05日
    01 (---) ¥383,332,900 ($3.6 million), 0, ¥711,756,100 ($6.6 million), Deadpool (Fox) NEW
    02 (01) ¥350,609,200 ($3.2 million), -20%, ¥6,034,859,900 ($56.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK7
    03 (---) ¥342,040,700 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥342,040,700 ($3.1 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) NEW
    04 (02) ¥156,269,600 ($1.4 million), -33%, ¥578,567,800 ($5.4 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) WK2
    05 (---) ¥100,203,000 ($927,000), 0, ¥100,203,000 ($927,000), The Kodai Family (Toho) NEW
    06 (07) ¥85,396,400 ($791,000), -04%, ¥1,423,181,900 ($13.3 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK5
    07 (04) ¥67,553,100 ($625,000), -40%, ¥940,575,900 ($8.7 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK4
    08 (03) ¥60,766,900 ($562,000), -47%, ¥331,591,125 ($3.0 million), The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa) WK2
    09 (05) ¥58,429,700 ($541,000), -42%, ¥1,046,397,900 ($9.6 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK4
    10 (06) ¥56,401,800 ($522,000), -41%, ¥6,020,487,600 ($55.5 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK8

    And we have a new #1 film! And, of all things, it's DEADPOOL.

    Deadpool accomplishment a few achievements this weekend: First, it's the first superhero film to open at #1 since Avengers: Age of Ultron from 11 months ago; Second, it managed to dethrone Zootopia from its long reign atop the box office; And third, it's the first R15+ rated film to open at #1 since Ted from, get ready for it, January 2013.

    Marvel's hyper-violent superhero sold 248,473 admissions over the weekend on 724 screens, but that was "only" good enough to rank third place over the weekend in terms of admissions. Regardless, it achieves the #1 ranking in terms of gross thanks to its high avg. ticket price, and accomplished quite a lot in the process. It hasn't really shown any early signs of noticable frontloading, so a total between ¥2-2.5 billion ($20-25 million) looks very good right now, which will be more than enough to outgross every X-Men film in the market (Apocalypse won't be a contender later this year).
     
  20. def28 Registered

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    Nice! The success just doesn't end.:dpl:
     
  21. Wildcard Cataclysmic Titan

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    Agreed. And even if it wasn't heavily edited, there's no way to predict exactly how well it would've done had it been released in China. As we saw with TFA, even the biggest of movies aren't guaranteed record breaking success in China.
     
  22. Logan0327 Registered

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  23. psylockolussus Spice Mutant

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  24. RLAAMJR. Ororo Munroe's Boyfriend

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  25. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    Yeah, there was an odd thing going on last weekend with a reported $9 million something number bouncing around. Looked like the total take from Thrsday on got reported in some corners as just the OW number. Not surprised it got adjusted. On the plus side weekend actuals were very good (via corpse):

    04 (01) ¥253,315,300 ($2.4 million), -34%, ¥1,241,210,300 ($11.5 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK2

    Usually superhero films take a 40% or greater hit on the second weekend so -34% is a solid hold.
     

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