Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

Like corpse wrote, not much in the way of comps for a Wednesday opening. We'll have a better idea after the weekend.

 

[Iceman]

Nice to see this still making money somewhere.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Like corpse wrote, not much in the way of comps for a Wednesday opening. We'll have a better idea after the weekend.

I see. I'm so nervous.

 

[Superhero 101]

Hopefully it can get enough to pass passion of christ

 

[Logan0327]

dont know how well it will do since japan is not a huge market like china

GOTG,Antman,DOFP all did 9 million in japan

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Japan can be big. Ask Frozen ($245 million). But yeah, that's unlikely. Best-case scenario is probably $40-50 million, basically Avengers coin. Omens seem good, it apparently did well Thursday (no numbers), has strong WOM and is No. 2 in presales for the weekend behind local product Evergreen Love.

One thing to remember is that Japan is a notoriously slow-build market so it will probably take a week or two to get a solid read.

 

[-JKR-]

Hopefully it can get enough to pass passion of christ

The Passion of the Christ record is domestic, so Japan won't change that.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

FWIW this from one of the guys on the bot boards:

Anyway, final numbers for Saturday are in:
[順位] [販売数] [映画作品タイトル名]
　*1　*84862　植物図鑑 運命の恋、ひろいま…
　*2　*75856　デッドプール
　*3　*61916　ズートピア

Down 18.7% from last Saturday. If Sunday is down by a similar amount, then the weekend's total will be about $3.3M. Should be enough for $1B WW.

He's talking about Zootopia in the No. 3 spot. Deadpool is No. 2 so if his Zoo estimate is right DP will come in north of that. If so I think that's the biggest X-Men franchise opening in Japan. X2 did $3 million.

 

[Smilodon]

What's amazing about this film is that even overseas, the marketing is very unique and modern. The Japanese Deadpool account tweets fans who mention they saw the movie, Ryan also voices from ads for Japanese audiences, and they have a giant Deadpool statue that's being trucked around Japan which people can try and see/tweet about.

https://***********/DeadpoolMovieJP

They also made a Deadpool version of the traditional Japanese card game, karuta, and just like how Ryan and co. kept thanking the fans for the film, this one also thanks international fans as well.

Also a Japanese interview from Tim, reiterating that they're discussing X-Force and how they'd like for it to be a goal after the Deadpool sequel. (for those who get anxious over the thought of Kinberg being anywhere near this creatively)

http://getnews.jp/archives/1461355

Great effort from Fox internationally. I think these creative marketing efforts will definitely help the film in its final markets.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Update from corpse...

Alright, so I just finished typing up the Saturday Admissions from the Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of the Market) I post each week a couple minutes ago, and in the process of submitting it, some error occurred and I lost it ...

Anyway, there's a very close race for the #1 spot this weekend between Evergreen Love, Deadpool, and Zootopia (now in its seventh weekend). Evergreen Love won Saturday in terms of admissions (84,897), thanks to very robust stage greeting ticket sales. Deadpool ranked a strong second place (76,107), followed by Zootopia falling to third (61,969), down just 19%.

Evergreen Love will likely see a sharp decline on Sunday without the stage greeting benefit, and since its avg. ticket price will be pretty low, it may not win the weekend even with the Saturday advantage.

Deadpool opened earlier in the week (Wednesday), so its Sunday should be unaffected. And since it carries an R15+ rating, its avg. ticket price will be high. It's also worth mentioning that its Saturday was quite strong, especially for a superhero film. Compared to Captain America: Civil War, it trailed just 12%. And it was pretty much on par with Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice, trailing it by a mere 1%.

Zootopia has been enjoying significant Sunday increases every week, and tomorrow shouldn't be any different. So with another strong Sunday, it can certainly comeback from a third place ranking on Saturday to win the weekend and its fifth-consecutive overall.

For comparisons sake, BvS opened to $3.3 million in Japan.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ERCboxoffice:

DEADPOOL finally unspooled in Japan with $6.5M--larger than any other X-MEN flick. International total is now $409M.

I assume that includes everything from Wednesday on. Sounds like about $4 million from the weekend proper, which would put it on par with The Avengers OW in Japan. Great start!

 

[Zant]

I can only imagine what this would have made in China. X men Apocalypse just had a big opening there, I bet this film would have done even better. Fox should try again and push for a release there.
I remember, Despicable me 2 was banned but then was latter allowed to play there.

 

[Superhero 101]

I think if it would have opened in China it would have easily made another 100-150 million

 

[marieylee]

It's at 772M WW. Should pass Guardians soon.

Subtract China's total for BvS and it's at 776 M.

 

[Logan0327]

772 million WW WOW

you guys realize if china wasn't banned deadpool might of out grossed bvs lol

 

[RLAAMJR.]

772 million WW WOW

you guys realize if china wasn't banned deadpool might of out grossed bvs lol

And even reach a billion dollars.

 

[metaphysician]

OTOH, that is all contingent on it being released in China in uncut form. If the edits they demanded for approval were sufficiently harsh ( as I suspect they were ), the result would have probably been a net negative.

 

[Xrated48]

Man I wish this film was not banned in China

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Final weekend breakdown from corpse:

Weekend Actuals (06/04-05)/2016年06月04日-2016年06月05日
01 (---) ¥383,332,900 ($3.6 million), 0, ¥711,756,100 ($6.6 million), Deadpool (Fox) NEW
02 (01) ¥350,609,200 ($3.2 million), -20%, ¥6,034,859,900 ($56.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK7
03 (---) ¥342,040,700 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥342,040,700 ($3.1 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) NEW
04 (02) ¥156,269,600 ($1.4 million), -33%, ¥578,567,800 ($5.4 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) WK2
05 (---) ¥100,203,000 ($927,000), 0, ¥100,203,000 ($927,000), The Kodai Family (Toho) NEW
06 (07) ¥85,396,400 ($791,000), -04%, ¥1,423,181,900 ($13.3 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK5
07 (04) ¥67,553,100 ($625,000), -40%, ¥940,575,900 ($8.7 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK4
08 (03) ¥60,766,900 ($562,000), -47%, ¥331,591,125 ($3.0 million), The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa) WK2
09 (05) ¥58,429,700 ($541,000), -42%, ¥1,046,397,900 ($9.6 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK4
10 (06) ¥56,401,800 ($522,000), -41%, ¥6,020,487,600 ($55.5 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK8

And we have a new #1 film! And, of all things, it's DEADPOOL.

Deadpool accomplishment a few achievements this weekend: First, it's the first superhero film to open at #1 since Avengers: Age of Ultron from 11 months ago; Second, it managed to dethrone Zootopia from its long reign atop the box office; And third, it's the first R15+ rated film to open at #1 since Ted from, get ready for it, January 2013.

Marvel's hyper-violent superhero sold 248,473 admissions over the weekend on 724 screens, but that was "only" good enough to rank third place over the weekend in terms of admissions. Regardless, it achieves the #1 ranking in terms of gross thanks to its high avg. ticket price, and accomplished quite a lot in the process. It hasn't really shown any early signs of noticable frontloading, so a total between ¥2-2.5 billion ($20-25 million) looks very good right now, which will be more than enough to outgross every X-Men film in the market (Apocalypse won't be a contender later this year).

 

[def28]

Nice! The success just doesn't end.

 

[Wildcard]

OTOH, that is all contingent on it being released in China in uncut form. If the edits they demanded for approval were sufficiently harsh ( as I suspect they were ), the result would have probably been a net negative.

Agreed. And even if it wasn't heavily edited, there's no way to predict exactly how well it would've done had it been released in China. As we saw with TFA, even the biggest of movies aren't guaranteed record breaking success in China.

 

[Logan0327]

Deadpool has officially passed Guardians Of The Galaxy - Worldwide:$777,182,274
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=deadpool2016.htm

 

[psylockolussus]

Thats great!

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Deadpool has officially passed Guardians Of The Galaxy - Worldwide:$777,182,274
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=deadpool2016.htm

It's back to Worldwide: $774,940,422

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, there was an odd thing going on last weekend with a reported $9 million something number bouncing around. Looked like the total take from Thrsday on got reported in some corners as just the OW number. Not surprised it got adjusted. On the plus side weekend actuals were very good (via corpse):

04 (01) ¥253,315,300 ($2.4 million), -34%, ¥1,241,210,300 ($11.5 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK2

Usually superhero films take a 40% or greater hit on the second weekend so -34% is a solid hold.