🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

[MagnarTheGreat]

Michigan poll: Trump's edge takes notable leap in battleground state

The polls of Michigan voters show an almost unheard of level of support for a Republican presidential candidate in the state.

www.freep.com

Poll: Clinton opens up 11-point lead on Trump in Michigan

New poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 43%-32% in Michigan with 95 days until election

www.freep.com

Poll: Clinton widens Mich. lead as Trump support slides

Donald Trump’s Michigan support is showing signs of collapse, as 1 in 4 Republicans say he should drop out in new poll

www.detroitnews.com

Clinton lost Michigan by 0.22 points.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Michigan 538 average on July 21 | election result
Trump (R-inc.) 40.9% | 47.8%
Biden (D) 49.9% | 50.6%

Incumbents tend to get more underestimated a bit.

 

[Lily Adler]

Poll: Clinton opens up 11-point lead on Trump in Michigan

New poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 43%-32% in Michigan with 95 days until election

www.freep.com

Poll: Clinton widens Mich. lead as Trump support slides

Donald Trump’s Michigan support is showing signs of collapse, as 1 in 4 Republicans say he should drop out in new poll

www.detroitnews.com

Clinton lost Michigan by 0.22 points.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Michigan 538 average on July 21 | election result
Trump (R-inc.) 40.9% | 47.8%
Biden (D) 49.9% | 50.6%

Incumbents tend to get more underestimated a bit.

Just imagine had she actually campaigned there.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Five things to know about J.D. Vance’s ties to tech billionaires​

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/17/g-s1-11654/five-things-to-know-about-jd-vances-connections-to-tech-billionaires

See also essay: Democratic Underground - The en****tification of politics | by site owner and co-founder EarlG, July 20, 2024

 

[Iceman]

Joe Biden ends re-election campaign

Joe Biden ends re-election campaign

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Iceman]

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Money well spent I guess.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

 

[zeptron]

Ugh.

Trump supporters are going to be even more unpleasant and insufferable for the next 4 months.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Unfortunately the money bullying worked. The bullying will next turn against Vice President Harris.



Past 100 years:

presidents who won reelection (71%)
Democrats: 88% (7/8 elections) | Republicans: 56% (5/9 elections)

presidents who won open presidency (incumbent stepped aside for nomination or incumbent term limited)
Republicans 75% (6/8 elections) | Democrats 25% (2/8 elections)

presidents who declined reelection chance and were 'replaced' as nominees with someone else and that someone else won (33%)
Republicans 100% (1/1 election) | Democrats 0% (0/2 elections)

The election gets harder historically from here.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Obama did it again!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Unfortunately the money bullying worked. The bullying will next turn against Vice President Harris.



Past 100 years:

presidents who won reelection (71%)
Democrats: 88% (7/8 elections) | Republicans: 56% (5/9 elections)

presidents who won open presidency (incumbent stepped aside for nomination or incumbent term limited)
Republicans 75% (6/8 elections) | Democrats 25% (2/8 elections)

presidents who declined reelection chance and were 'replaced' as nominees with someone else and that someone else won (33%)
Republicans 100% (1/1 election) | Democrats 0% (0/2 elections)

How many of the presidents who were underwater in the polling this late in the race, who won reelection?

 

[Iceman]

The momentum was getting too bad, and imagine the next debate didn’t go well. It would be game over and too late to change. This way Biden can still support the nomination/election and be a genuine help without having to worry about being a liability.

 

[Lily Adler]

Obama did it again!

Man got rid of Bernie and now he got rid of Joe. So this is what white supremacists feared when a black man had power.

 

[BatLobster]

Welp. All I can say is I hope all those legal challenges in the swing states don't pan out. I'm nervous about the uncertainty this brings, admittedly feeling a bit let down by Joe for caving, but I hope we can just get a Kamala ticket shored up ASAP and move forward. For now I'm at least relieved we don't have to argue about this anymore. I'm trying to be hopeful that Joe did real soul-searching and came to the conclusion that this was the best path forward, understood ALL of the data about the risks of dropping, rather than just caving to the political pressure.

For those of you who wanted it to go this way, I sincerely hope you were right and we can all party in November.

 

[squeekness]

Welp. All I can say is I hope all those legal challenges in the swing states don't pan out. I'm nervous about the uncertainty this brings, admittedly feeling a bit let down by Joe for caving, but I hope we can just get a Kamala ticket shored up ASAP and move forward. For now I'm at least relieved we don't have to argue about this anymore. I'm trying to be hopeful that Joe did real soul-searching and came to the conclusion that this was the best path forward, understood ALL of the data about the risks of dropping, rather than just caving to the political pressure.

For those of you who wanted it to go this way, I sincerely hope you were right and we can all party in November.

Yeah, it will be nice not to argue about the If, now it will be the WHO instead. Just hope this doesn't crash the Democratic vote overall and Trump wins again.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, it will be nice not to argue about the If, now it will be the WHO instead. Just hope this doesn't crash the Democratic vote overall and Trump wins again.

Why would this crash the Dem vote? Biden was underwater in comparison to Dem senator candidates running in the swing states.

Kamala may not win. But Biden definitely wasn't.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Senators usually do at least a little better than their party's presidential candidates running in the same election IIRC. I ran some numbers looking at that the other day from 2020.

 

[Iceman]

Welp. All I can say is I hope all those legal challenges in the swing states don't pan out. I'm nervous about the uncertainty this brings, admittedly feeling a bit let down by Joe for caving, but I hope we can just get a Kamala ticket shored up ASAP and move forward. For now I'm at least relieved we don't have to argue about this anymore. I'm trying to be hopeful that Joe did real soul-searching and came to the conclusion that this was the best path forward, understood ALL of the data about the risks of dropping, rather than just caving to the political pressure.

For those of you who wanted it to go this way, I sincerely hope you were right and we can all party in November.

What are the challenges for? Replacing a candidate too late?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Every state has different ballot access rules and deadlines. Major parties have one set of rules, minor parties another, as well as different rules for independents and write-ins.

 

[squeekness]

Why would this crash the Dem vote? Biden was underwater in comparison to Dem senator candidates running in the swing states.

Kamala may not win. But Biden definitely wasn't.

If a weak candidate is chosen that cant beat Trump or if some dems give up and choose not to vote at all is my concern.

 

[BatLobster]

What are the challenges for? Replacing a candidate too late?

Yeah. Mike Johnson said they're prepared to challenge in all 50 states, which I found terrifying. Hopefully pulling the trigger on switching now vs. later helps make it a bit less of a mess and gives them more time to have the ballots ready. The concern was that the ballots are already being made and early voting starts in September. Hopefully some more astute legal minds can start looking at this more closely so we have a better idea of where the dangers are.


Alright, let's go.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If a weak candidate is chosen that cant beat Trump or if some dems give up and choose not to vote at all is my concern.

There was already a weak candidate. Hard to be weak then Biden was in his current state. Only Hillary, really.

 

[Bran The Man]

I just heard. Now I don't mean to sound defeatist, but why does feel like a death knell?

I feel like this might have increased the chances of Trump winning the election. Kamala Harris made it onto the ticket last time, but has the country progressed to where they'll finally welcome a female president?

 

[squeekness]

I just heard. Now I don't mean to sound defeatist, but why does feel like a death knell?

I feel like this might have increased the chances of Trump winning the election. Kamala Harris made it onto the ticket last time, but has the country progressed to where they'll finally welcome a female president?

I have no problem ×itha female President as long as she is qualified. I don't like the idea of voting just by gender or s3xual orientation alone.