Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

[First Avenger]

http://deadline.com/2017/11/kevin-c...cal-marketing-of-20th-century-fox-1202207898/

This seems relevant.

 

[Iceman]

To be honest though, Fox really isn't adding much right now. They have Deadpool and The Phoenix Saga, as far as I know. I'm probably forgetting quite a few others, but that is part of the problem with Fox's control of those properties. Of those, really only Deadpool holds any interest.

They can push back the X-Men films, right the ship and start over. Deadpool they can just have him run amuck in the MCU. I'm ok with them taking their time with X-Men and Fantastic Four.

BTW, I freaking love this picture.

There's more plans for spinoffs than there are for main series films. X-Force and New Mutants too, as well as The Gifted show which has just started. They are looking to excel in everything but the most important part for me lol. But in regard to the point we were discussing they have enough plans in place that if Marvel were to either take those same plans over or replace them with their own plans, they wouldn't be adding any extra content to the CBM marketplace that wasn't already there so by them increasing production and Fox reducing, the net effect could be around zero in terms of saturation.

As long as someone can in the future give me X-team films where all the main X-Men can eventually appear in the right time period and at an age that makes rough sense in relation to everyone else, plus a huge effects budget, I'll be a happy man.

And yes the picture is awesome

 

[InCali]

https://www.21cf.com/investor-relations/annual-meeting-information

10AM PST/1PM EST. Investors will ask questions on this. If I were there, I would. Whether or not they dodge it is another question.

That's really close to my house. I wonder if I can get a ticket.

 

[Surfer]

https://www.21cf.com/investor-relations/annual-meeting-information

10AM PST/1PM EST. Investors will ask questions on this. If I were there, I would. Whether or not they dodge it is another question.

Wonder if that means we might hear some more information tomorrow.

Surfer

 

[Iceman]

That's really close to my house. I wonder if I can get a ticket.

We need our Hype spies in attendance.

 

[DyfeddRex]

I think we need to watch a few other things as well. Hulu's stock, this may also be a bone of contention in the deal. Thinking this through, Fox, despite it's cable services, does not really have a solid platform for distributing the parts it plans to keep, the news and sports, online as easily as say, Hulu could. Taking Fox's Hulu share would maybe let the Mouse forget doing their own, by taking over an established service. If Hulu shares go ape suddenly, we know that might be one of the deal breakers for both.
If they go up slow, sorta, then we can guess that it is not a hang point in the negotiations.
fewer hangpoints, fewer headaches to getting at least an IP transfer deal, which is all most of us want for our beloved characters. Time to start watching both the MCU films and this XP film for which races appear in them... and if that signal of the Skulls being in both XP and CM... wow. Then maybe more of a deal has been done on the side, say, "Okay, we grant you p, d, and q, for e, M, and Z." or just cash.

The Sky deal is burning a hole through the wallets of the Murdochs, every roadbloack adds at least a half to full bill-buck to the cost of the deal in the end, and if it falls through, well, there might even be a few "markers" for favors they laid out that have to be paid as well. Mouse has the cash, and the ability to turn even something tainted by craptastic as a moniker back into at least the levels that DS and AM produce, more, if they pair them right with certain characters. X-men, more so, as they all had allies in the Avengers and (for MCU) Defenders camps, not as obvious, but hell...

We all want to see Wolvie, sitting at a bar, sniffs as someone comes up behind him, turns smiling, and tells the Winter Soldier that "I got that **** Romulus, for ya."

 

[Orba]

I can't see Disney being interested in Fox's Hulu shares, Disney is after its own exclusive service and even if they got the Fox shares they would still be sharing it with Comcast and Time Warner. Disney are more likely to offer their shares to Fox in the deal.

Also Disney will be looking to have a worldwide service while Hulu is still only available in the US and Japan even though its 10 years old. If they were starting from scratch they would still be starting with the US so its not like it would be a massive downgrade from the current situation. I think Disney would prefer not to have their expansion plans held back by having to work with partners.

 

[Big Bang]

I can't see Disney being interested in Fox's Hulu shares, Disney is after its own exclusive service and even if they got the Fox shares they would still be sharing it with Comcast and Time Warner. Disney are more likely to offer their shares to Fox in the deal.

Also Disney will be looking to have a worldwide service while Hulu is still only available in the US and Japan even though its 10 years old. If they were starting from scratch they would still be starting with the US so its not like it would be a massive downgrade from the current situation. I think Disney would prefer not to have their expansion plans held back by having to work with partners.

I guess one of the wildcards is if Disney can get away with having a majority stake of a OTT service. My gut is they'll spread the shares amongst their partners, just to maintain equilibrium while their new service is getting started.

 

[Zarex]

Nothing to report from the annual meeting.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...ney-sale-discussion-at-annual-meeting-1058527

 

[Big Bang]

Nothing to report from the annual meeting.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...ney-sale-discussion-at-annual-meeting-1058527

If the deal was dead, then they would have spoken up about it. Until a deal is announced it is business as usual.

Meanwhile, they will keep speculation at a minimum and carry on with negotiations with fewer distractions.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Might only be to not jog the elbows of their negotiators. We know for sure that both the LucasFilms and MarvelStudios divisions at the Mouse want, in Lucas's case, Need, certain rights back. Fox is probably trying to make the entire buyout more attractive than just piecemeal rights.

 

[Iceman]

Could be a while if we hear anything more but I'm sure something is going on under the surface. This definitely makes sense to Disney and it seems like Fox also finally have reason to sell.

 

[Big Bang]

Might only be to not jog the elbows of their negotiators. We know for sure that both the LucasFilms and MarvelStudios divisions at the Mouse want, in Lucas's case, Need, certain rights back. Fox is probably trying to make the entire buyout more attractive than just piecemeal rights.

Exactly. Fox can sit there looking pretty and not have to say a word about any deal. Everyone knows that Fox has what Disney wants on multiple fronts.

The board and its top investors are all thinking the same thing we are. They all know that there are talks off and on. The fact that nobody brought it up is rather telling in itself. They expect that something is going to go down at some point, and are comfortable with waiting until then.

Till then, Fox can talk up its divisions and say how great they are doing, etc. It plays into negotiations when they sit down and discuss a selling price. It is all about bravado on Fox's end.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

This is definitely a case of "No News is Good News".

The general belief is they're trying to sell, and more importantly, the general belief is that's their best path forward.

If they aren't seriously considering selling and consider their film division to be a be a key component of their business going forward, they need to quell these rumors and make it clear they are still film-makers.

Their stock would take a hit, but that hit would be nothing compared to what will happen if they continue to allow investors to buy a different company than they think they're buying for the next several months.

 

[TheVileOne]

The deal could still be a long way off. I'm not going to hold my breath. IF it happens, it might not get done for a while.

 

[DyfeddRex]

I think that, if we can believe that Forbes article that these talks have been going on and off for over a year (let's be real, I bet that the reason for the Marvel input on the TV side was that they did not want totally trashed goods when the deal went down), we might be almighty close to a deal, but the issues being raised on the ATT/TW deal has them rethinking what they thought was worked out.

It comes down to paring the deal down to what a regulatory board could stomach, and while the US reg agencies are a bit looser under the Elephant Party, they still get mighty gunshy, as they were the original "trust-busters" once upon a time, and pressure to break some of these conglomerates is building. Especially the media ones.

Now, another hurdle, besides agreeing to a price, might be alternate plans for assets to be transferred if the deal gets blocked, and how to pull those off, as the Mouse will not toss good money after bad, if they can avoid it. Betting folks would probably agree, they are angling for a "but we get x.y. z for just talking, at this price" and that might be the thing holding it up.

Regardless, the lawsuits coming against NewsCorp and Fox in the current bouts of harassment lawsuits, the buyout clauses for certain celebs and execs, and the cost so far rung up on the bid for Sky might have the Murdochs coming to the table with a minimum $ amount needed to keep them solvent if things keep going south. That, and a little predatory nature in the House of Mouse, might slow things down.

My money, a deal before regulatory agencies for vetting by year's end, with something transferred for the effort from Fox to the Mouse, regardless. Marvel fans can pray it's the FF, but Ep4 rights are far more tasty, I bet, to the Mouse.

 

[DyfeddRex]

And, yes, it would be the 'damaged goods' of the FF before the Muties come home. X-Men are just too big a cash cow, even for Fox, to let that go. FF, as pointed out in the "bring them home" forum, has probably cost them $s.

Still, on further review, it might be that given the reception so far to the Inhumans as substitute mutants so far in the MCU and MTU (Marvel Television Universe), the mouse might be looking for that nibbled on wheel of limburger cheese, known as Homo Superior, not the dried up, rotten wedge that is left of the first family.

 

[TheVileOne]

http://deadline.com/2017/11/james-f...an-allan-heinberg-fox-marvel-hero-1202209591/

Is this relevant to the discussion? A Multiple Man movie for Fox.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

http://deadline.com/2017/11/james-f...an-allan-heinberg-fox-marvel-hero-1202209591/

Is this relevant to the discussion? A Multiple Man movie for Fox.

The thing that strikes me is it seems out of nowhere. Is it Fox trying to force Disney to act quick before they clog up the pipeline with crap?

With Deadpool 2, Dark Phoenix, New Mutants, X-Force, Gambit and X-23 all reportedly in various stages of production/development, it seems like the last thing Fox needs is another X-film. If they expect those other films to be successful (as they presumably would) how can they fit all the sequels and new films in any reasonable schedule?

 

[Iceman]

It does seem like the announcement came very soon after news of the talks came out, and it's not like Fox's CBM schedule wasn't already packed!

 

[ADollarADay]

It does seem like the announcement came very soon after news of the talks came out, and it's not like Fox's CBM schedule wasn't already packed!

My initial suspicion that Disney initially approached Fox seems to have been confirmed by John Malone. My suspicion that Fox was the one who leaked talks were happening is strengthened by the stock movement and stuff like this.

What I think happened was:

1) Iger wants a buyout for the streaming service (and to cement his legacy). He has admitted Disney looked into buying Twitter, and it's very likely they also looked into buying Netflix and parts of Time Warner.
2) They approached Fox about a buyout and Fox was receptive.
3) Talks commenced on which assets were going to be purchased, the total cost, and how payment was going to be made (i.e. stocks, bonds, cash. If you remember, Disney's acquisition of Marvel was 40/60 stock/cash and 50/50 stock/cash for Lucas, IIRC).
4) An agreement could not be reached on either the price, assets to transfer, and/or how payment was going to be made.
5) Fox execs, now convinced this was good move, want the deal back on the table. They also know Disney can offer them the best deal. Disney knows this too. Everybody knows.
6) Fox execs leaked that talks were happening to put more pressure on Disney. I don't believe that talks were ever truly dead. This may have backfired on Fox a bit as it puts just as much pressure on them, if not more
7) No company wants to publicly comment on this, pretty much confirming. both parties are highly interested in the deal. Both parties are adamant they have the scale and don't need anything else.
8) Disney may have engaged back with the same hard stance. Fox still not budging on their stance either, though both sides want the deal.
9) Fox releases a Deadpool trailer that people really like. They also announce a random movie no one wants, pretty much telling Disney that - just like Sony - they can mine the IPs they have licensed and diminish their value

You are here

10) One side budges, or both side budges a bit, sale happens, everyone is happy?

 

[Iceman]

Interesting write up

I hope #10 happens!

 

[TheVileOne]

I mean if you could get a backlog of Simpsons reruns for your streaming service, that would be huge wouldn't it?

 

[Iceman]

There are a lot of things that would be great for Disney about it even outside of just the CBM stuff. Their streaming service could fall on its face still because I'm not sure people want to pay for more than just Netflix every month. But if Disney managed to get enough permanent and important content that might change.

 

[NotNickFury]

Well, seems Comcast has approached 21st Century Fox about potential acquisition.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/comcast-approached-21st-century-fox-over-acquisition-interest-1510869129?mod=e2tw

Comcast Corp. has approached 21st Century Fox FOX 2.33% to express interest in an acquisition, according to people familiar with the situation.

It’s unclear whether the cable giant is exploring a purchase of all or part of Fox. When Walt Disney Co. recently approached Fox, the two sides discussed a potential deal in which Fox would only sell its movie and TV studio, some U.S. cable networks and international distribution business, but not its news and sports networks or the Fox broadcast network. The Disney-Fox talks fell apart.

Any deal would be sizable. 21st Century Fox has a market capitalization of $53.68 billion. There’s no guarantee the talks will lead to a deal.